A lower low for gold is not making the rest of summer look promising
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As I said that is a small possibility but one can’t play it that way until gold makes a higher high. So for now one has to be on the sidelines until gold goes back above $1326. If it does that then you can jump back in. Until it does that we have to play this as if the intermediate cycle is in decline and stay out.
The action in my “junior juniors” today is hardly ominous and supports your view, glenfidish.
My post from yesterday stills applies.
I think it is disingenuous to say gold an silver are manipulated. The Euro is under extreme pressure to the downside which forces the USD higher in response since they are a pair trade.
That is why PM’s are getting whacked. The manipulation excuse is a weak excuse frankly and is used to excuse bad investments decisions.
You see PM’s getting whacked because of the dollar. It is simple minded to day otherwise.
The tinfoil hat crowd needs to give it up. The USD is your sinister manipulator.
Capital flows decide the fate of all things in terms of price. People are fleeing European, Asian, and middle eastern taxation, war, terrorism, and economic collapse in the BRICs. that is driving capital towards US stocks and USD assets.
That is proven and to say otherwise is frankly dishonest.
When the USD tanks then you will see the fear trade return. Right now Facebook, Cisco, Microsoft and Health care stocks are the trade,
one must use these rises in PM miners to buy low – sell the rise just enough to collect free shares. use this sccumulation strategy and the noise we see right now is irrelevant.
I did this in 1998 – 2003 and made more money than one can imagine. There were 4-6 smashes in the years from 2003-2011. I rode them all and sold hte parabolic top.
There will be another time but not for 3-5 years. Use this time to by and sell the cycles. In m5 years you’ll have thousands of free shares for pennies that you sell for dollars.
Exactly. And that the US$ Index can barely get out of its own way on this so-called “rally” ought to be the wake-up call to end all wake-up calls.
So why do you figure such massive dumps take place in the pre-market hours, Ken? Is that not manipulation?
Regardless, the advice to buy and sell the cycles for accumulation sounds good to me.
Those “dumps” are jsut that –
dumps.. hedgies caught on the wrong side for the thousandth time. This time of year every tool dumbbutt kid on summer job from Yale is manning the desks and they get caught.
It happens all the time.. The Great Conspiracy is some kid caught by the banksters long gold…
Stops are hit – kid loses summer job and goes to nantucket to catch a few rays before school starts.
it also can hedgies caught in a Euro or USD pair trade gone south.
Remember that pro traders use pairs. It is never discussed on these blogs yet 99% of the time these ” liquidations” or “attacks” are nothing but dumping a pair trade.
Alot of folks are short gold, Euro, USD, Bonds, etc.
These midnight “attacks” are them dumping out a hong kong trading floor that is open?
I agree with Ken. It is not manipulation it is murmuration. I think all the computer trading algos act together like a flock of starlings.
http://www.wired.com/2011/11/starling-flock
Starling flocks, it turns out, are best described with equations of “critical transitions” — systems that are poised to tip, to be almost instantly and completely transformed, like metals becoming magnetized or liquid turning to gas. Each starling in a flock is connected to every other. When a flock turns in unison, it’s a phase transition.
At the individual level, the rules guiding this are relatively simple. When a neighbor moves, so do you. Depending on the flock’s size and speed and its members’ flight physiologies, the large-scale pattern changes. What’s complicated, or at least unknown, is how criticality is created and maintained.
The short position is gold has been so high so they try and bring it down to the 1240’s to cover shorts.
I wonder is GS is right and we get $1040 at the end of 2014.
Everybody’s waiting for someone else to make the move on precious metals. That’s not going to work, as Cory and Big Al can tell you, probably straight from the conference floor, which Jeff Berwick just called “like walking into a funeral… of someone that no one liked!” (http://dollarvigilante.com/blog/2014/7/23/now-is-the-time-to-get-into-gold-stocks.html)
Gold mining stock CEOs and Trustees are shortchanged by the very banks that finance their companies, told to hedge gold and silver forward at ridiculously low rates, making all the forecasts for precious metals negative. Naked shorting of the paper stocks, government control, hostile work environments, the rising inflation of electricity and diesel on-site…I’m surprised more miners have not shut down after 3 years of Hunt Brothers-like persecution. Just to make the USD and DJIA look good. Meanwhile the physical metals market only has tales of physical gold bars being taken from US/UK vaults, melted down and recast in Switzerland, and shipped to China by the cargo container-load. This dichotomy has got to stop.
We have another FOMC meeting on Monday, 28 July. Are the “smart money guys” bailing out, taking profit, sitting in cash until after the suppressors push down the gold/silver price just for the Federal Reserve’s meeting?
I cannot tell anyone what to do, I am not a registered financial planner, do your own due diligence, etc. But Cory’s last word to be in cash for the next few weeks sounds good to me. But I’ve been riding the junior miner stocks down, down, down, since 2011, hoping that the dividends generated and re-invested will result in higher amounts later.
Gary,
Just to add to that if this where a stretched daily cycle low, are we in day 37? If so what is the longest daily stretched cycle for gold you have witnessed?
Thanks
I seem to remember a 40 day cycle several years ago.
Great Gary,
All i wanted was confirmation that it has happened before.. Extraordinary! Coincidentally fomc lands on day 39-40.. Im on the sidelines but may just may deploy.
Thanks for response.
If you look at Dan Norcini’s blog today, he speaks of a report that indicates for the first half of 2014 total Chinese gold demand down 19% compared to 1st half 2013.
Looking at Treasury yields, it seems to me that Mr. market is not worried about inflation. Until there is worry about inflation, and until it is perceived that real interest rates are negative and getting more negative, then it seems to me the outlook for gold is not good. For me, cash Is good except for the coin which I will hold. Thanks gary and Cory. Fundamentals (short-term) and technical both are discouraging.
I agree, Mr. Market doesn’t seem to be worried about inflation.
I don’t get it, considering this kind of info:
http://d1w116sruyx1mf.cloudfront.net/ee-assets/channels/article_default/140723_cdd_chart7.jpg
Everybody relax. This is the decline to $1224 that I’ve been pointing out since June 19th, and for which I’ve been castigated, vilified, and excoriated by The Usual Suspects. Gary’s cycle work is great, don’t get me wrong, but the problem is he uses it in isolation. Sort of like a carpenter trying to build a house with nothing but a saw. Can’t do that, got to use every tool in the toolbox. Just let this last “flush” play itself out ( don’t worry, it’ll only hurt for a moment or two ) and then it’s onward, and upward, probably beyond $2000 by the end of the year.
MAD,
After the July 17 surge up due to the MH-17 shoot down, I thought you posted that $1224 would not happen?
I was wrong. Exogenous events will often cause that. I also said $1292 had to hold, and now it hasn’t, thus $1224 is now back in play. When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?
Thanks for the information, MAD.
MAD,
That would be nice…as I am a LONG TERM out llook guy with”Chinese eyes” ……I will NOT cash-in my PM’s at $2000 an ounce…but enjoy the ride thoroughly to a new shift in macro-monetary structure.
you certainly have a slanted view on gary’s stretched review…………
HA…yes- Jerry!
Gold’s golden cross has not worked out very well.
If I could paint the charts, I would paint a golden cross and then ring the cash register.
If I didn’t have a conscience!
That’s because “everybody” is using the same lame numbers now. The new numbers that work now for the GC are – no surprise – Fibonacci numbers.
The best golden cross happens when both the 50 and 200 ma are rising. If we use exponential moving averages instead of simple, we may get such a cross.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p31732552853
Using the simple moving averages, it’s a little premature to say that the cross has not worked out. Gold found support today 50 cents above the 200 day ma and closed above the 50 dma.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p89167132127
Gold is still hanging on to 50% of the move that began almost two months ago.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p89355379559&a=359706718
Gold is holding up in this alternative view too:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p74739654333&a=359707135
Don’t you think it is interesting how it keeps failing just as the cross is almost complete? Gold has a bad habit of not coming through on golden crosses but it is almost guaranteed to drop hard on a death cross. Both have signaled shorting opportunities.
The miners are up, so far, on their GCs. GDX is crossing right now and is up 1.5%…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p20505177124
Gold’s action on the cross is unknown since it has not done so yet (based on EMAs).
Given the extreme COT positions in gold and silver, the obvious expectation is for a significant decline, as low as it seems to me that they have already been pushed.
‘Ole Clive nailed that one pretty good.
If you stop and think about it – gold and silver hitting new lows in late Sept/October, as conventional stocks hit new highs, would fit in nicely with the conventional markets being at an all time high when the Fed ends QE.
Perhaps it is time to buy conventional stocks for 2 months?
That works for me Bob.
by the way, as a side note – this is why I am personally disgusted whenever I read that claptrap that poses for analysis which is centered around permanently spinning ( read that as conjecture based on nothing of substance ) the COT reports for Gold to be perennially bullish no matter what the damned thing shows us. The COT is NOT THE HOLY GRAIL of trading and those who peddle subscriptions and newsletters claiming that they have some sort of esoteric insight into it which gives them a unique ability to predict future price action based upon their mystical interpretations of it are frauds. How is that for clarity?
I just got a laugh outa this from Trader Dan.
I wonder what Ted Butler would think.
I don’t know what the big deal is, bb. There have been different opinions about the recent COT reports and their implications. I’m happy to read/hear all arguments.
I don’t know of anyone that would call COT analysis the “holy grail” —especially a trader.
I am in agreement with Dan on this one. COT reports are about the last thing I look at and it is usually just to fill in some dead space in my day. As far as gold goes they have been unreliable predicting anything other than that lots of people jump on them as evidence of a Martian landing.
Not a big deal Mathew, just funny.
Remember, trader Dan was a kwn regular until he figured gold was heading down.
Actually, Dan was a regular until gold was finished going down. There has not been a lower low since he left. Maybe he’s more sheep than contrarian, lol.
One major gain from this long correction in gold is that it separate good analysts from the bad. Now I know who to listen to and who to ignore so I got better information with less time. Great work JPM.
Dan is one of those people you should ignore. He just goes with the flow and state whatever he sees in the rear view mirror. He will say something that pretty much meaningless if you consider even the short period like a month or so. It is a waste of time to listen to him. I even stopped listening to him in KWN before he was out. My time is more precious than than and my boss pays me well. There is no wonder both Sinclair and King dumped him.
Ya might wanna chek that Mat, he left because he felt he couldn’t continue ra ra to the moon. He spoke about it in one of his posts.Not that it matters. academic really.
Check Ted Butler, you might find he figures the cot is pretty “holy grailish”, just sayin as you mention you didn’t know anyone that figures the cot is “grailish”
There are actualy a few people that continue to argue the cot shows manipulation etc.
Personaly I havnt figured that out as for every short there is a long, Im not sure how people can say people dumped x amount of contracts instead of people bought x amount of contracts.
Bb, you said: “Dan was a kwn regular until he figured gold was heading down.”
I’m just pointing out that Dan was still there six months AFTER the $1179 low was made.
I don’t follow Ted Butler.
Gary,
I asked you a week ago if this could be a stretched daily cycle low from your confirmed daily cycle low on july 15. For some reason you never responded or missed my post. I have a strong hunch that this is an extended daily cycle low. That 1277/1280 may just may hold and we turn possibly by tuesday the latest.
Im going out on a limb here and saying we do not see anything south of 1180.
Thanks for keeping us in the loop Gary! Great job.