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Also, can you make Rick Rule a regular guest. I love Rick. He is the best fundamental investor I have seen (as good as Al yourself). I think you have a great relation with Rick.
Can you print dollars to buy dollars…..forever…NO…..but how long can the USA keep this up WITHOUT a clear threat to a new paradigm in global fiscal monetary policy?? That is the GOLDEN question – Jim Willie says this year…other people say twenty years from now….hum…I say…Gold should, AT LEAST, reflect the ever-increasing strain on a fiat monetary system backed by NOTHING…therefore, until this SHIFT is a REALITY….Gold with go up in dollar fiat terms….for many months and years until the GAME IS CALLED FOR what it IS: LUNACY!
Gold will do what it usually does. It will ride up until the public gets on board then ultimately go parabolic and pop. The dollar will survive and gold will return to an unholy price that will have everyone grinding their teeth for another few years until the cycle returns. Not much really changes except its new bottom will be a lot higher than it was at the last bottom.
The miners are about to REALLY smoke gold…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$HUI&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=30&id=p79360086266&a=360411565
Matthew,
I would be very curious how you came to that conclusion by looking at that chart. It’s always amazed me how a group of humans can look at the same thing, in this instance a chart, and interpret or analyze it so differently than some on else.
I would be very interested in your inputs.
Vortex,
The chart shows gold priced in senior miners (HUI), not dollars. It shows what I think will be a bearish head and shoulders top pattern (price must break the neckline first).
Gold’s uptrend is still intact (remember, measured in miners), but won’t be for much longer, in my opinion.
I would like to hear from anyone who sees something else in that chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$HUI&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=30&id=p78304367143&a=360411565
Howdy Matthew, thanks for the reply,
I may be reading your chart completely wrong but with your second explanation I agree if you mean to say that the HUI is going to move down. When you say “smoke” gold, knowing your positive bias to the gold stocks, I a bit confused.
You’re correct the chart shows a possible H&S top, with a desending down draft. The RSI is very weak as your chart shows as well.
Did you mean the gold stocks will lead gold lower, or gold itself will break support to the downside, but the gold stocks will buck the trend and move up in-spite of weakness?
Sorry for any confusion. My chart reading is far from perfect.
Thanks again!
Hi Vortex, first, I want to point out that since it is a weekly chart, I might appear to be wrong for a few more weeks without actually being wrong. We might even see that gap just above 5.75 get filled before the H&S pattern confirmed.
It’s confusing at first, but the chart should be looked at just like a chart in which gold is priced in dollars —when price is rising, gold is outperforming; when it’s falling, the miners (in this case) are outperforming. I do expect the “price” on the chart to go a lot lower over the next few months which means the miners will continue to outperform gold. Since the man-made dollar is stripped out of this measure, we get a good look at how the miners are really doing.
It has been nearly 11 years since gold has been oversold against the miners on the weekly chart RSI (blue ellipses), but I think it will finally be again this fall:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$HUI&p=W&yr=10&mn=11&dy=30&id=p92547636338&a=360411565
To be clear, gold is a buy in terms of dollars or the S&P 500, but a sell in terms of miners (my opinion, of course).
Here’s a monthly look. Note that the last time gold was this expensive in terms of miners was back in 2000. Gold then plunged to oversold readings (just barely). I don’t expect the next monthly oversold readings until 2016.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$HUI&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=11&id=p89665072236&a=360291732
I do believe that silver has just put in a very important bottom versus gold (the kind that happens only every 5-6 years) and is set to dramatically outperform (remember, monthly charts are no good for short-term timing).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER:$GOLD&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=30&id=p62357103451&a=360339093
MS 61 AND MS 62………are no big deal……and really not collectables
Yeah. I thought the same thing. I collected $10 Indians for years and MS 61/62 (sometimes called industrial grades) were usually crap. MS-63 starts the value. And quite frankly, I had some AU-58s that were much nicer than many of the MS-60, 61, 62s I would see.
I really like the $20 Libs and ST.Gs , MS 64 plus area,,but, only for collecting purposes. But, they have to be graded correctly before I buy. and have some pedigree.
There are some great coins coming to market right now,,Newman collection is now being offered presently for those who like coins that do not come to market but, once every generation……….But, those are really for true collectors, which there are still plenty of people in the hobby with substantial cash and desire to own. …..
Off topic, Al. Where is Roger Wigland. I always like to listen to him. Too bad he is not on anymore. He is not more wrong then other guys here. I like his analysis even it could be wrong from time to time but it makes sense. I talked to him in Calgary a few years ago and I feel he is a very “thin-skinned” guy.