Where gold is going and what will drive the move
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Ditto stevie.
Al I agree that a September pop looks likely, not least because of all those black swan moments. That said as Doc points out if a recovery of 1900 gold takes a few years, so what! We insure for the future and our children’s future. So as the old adage goes: ‘Better to be one year, five years early than one day too late’!
Stewie, GDXJ should track with GDX. I believe GDX will see $24.75. Then at that point, I’ll be able to tell you what I think will happen.
Dear Doc,
What is it that gives you a technical signal to get gold to a new high by around 2019? Why 2019? DO you think gold has actually bottomed yet? Don’t you think there will be some failed rallies as in the 1980-99 bear market?
There are three serious analysts who agree with you on your shorter term call for gold and silver, gold outperforming silver for a while and your assertion that it will be 2019 before gold sees a new nominal high.
Bob Hoye, sees almost exactly what Doc is looking for in the next few months. He says he is looking for a cyclical bull market in gold fairly soon but not just yet. Note NOT a secular bull market!
Ross Clark of CIBC always worth a listen, says the gold euphoria in 2011 and the bear market since is very similar action to Dow 1929+, Nikkei 1989+ and Nasdaq 2000+. SOunds like Ross is bearish and that his opinion is that golkd and silver were in bubbles in 2011. The Dow took 25 yrs to get back to its high, the Nikkei is nowhere near after 25 years and the Nasdaq is close to its 2000 high after 14 years. Those might indicate that it could be at least 15 years for gold to retake $1920.
Jeff Christian was spot on last year with his call for gold around $1300 for all of 2014. He saw gold sticking around 2013 for a while then hanging around $1600 then reaching the $1920 level by around 2020.
Meanwhile Sprott and the other desperate obsessed promoters see gold $2000 by Christmas this year. Duh and Duh again. John Walter Williams sees hyperinflation in 2014. Double DUH. These guys have lost it and blown it, in my view. They have made total BS calls once too often.
I like Hoye, and most of what he has to say, but he was very wrong about silver and silver miners just before they went parabolic in 2010. (FWIW, I was not wrong.) Like Armstrong, he appears to conflate deflation with a contracting economy. Without central bank intervention, the latter LEADS to deflation. WITH CB intervention, a contracting economy leads to INFLATION. This is FACT for the last 14+ years.
Anyway, the secular bull never ended, PERIOD. Secular cycles are made of shorter cycles. The S&P is near the end of a cyclical bull within an ongoing secular bear (sorry Jim Puplava!).
I don’t have the nerve (or knowledge?) to bet on Polny’s call, but gold will be way beyond $1900 by 2019.
Remember, those “desperate promoters” were right for a decade while the mainstream never acknowledged the bull market until AFTER the 2011 declines. The HUI soared over 1600% in ten years while Jeff Christian talked the sector down and the financial “press” ignored it. It will be very different when this bull market is really ending.
It will end when the moose pastures are valued up with the producers IMHO. This is definitely not the case now.
Note who two of the participants in the new silver “benchmark” are: ScotiaMocatta and HSBC… more crap to come.
I agree, Dan. Thanks for the link.
Doc do have 1277/1280 target a for sure like i do?
Are you still in agreement with me that hui gap 225 will be filled 100% certainty?
Thanks
Glen, I feel that the odds say that we see 225.
Thank you! Not because im trying to prove a point but because I truly value your opinion and that of others on this daily show. Your one of the best in this business that has a wealth of “experience” and knowledge. That fact that were thinking alike is reassuring.
Glen, gaps of that size are historically very likely to get filled. However, every now and then they stay open for months if not years. Especially when they occur near multi-year lows.
Very true—-they can stay open for months if not years especially if they’re break-away gaps.
Matt for the record I believe these gaps will be filled because I don’t see gold coming down for decades after. I believe gold will be part of the monetary system in someway. Meaning it will be repriced much higherand never head down again. That is the only way the us can keep current system intact.
This is pure speculation, but doesn’t it stand to reason that the biggest players would paint the gap in order to shake shares from those who might not otherwise have sold? Doesn’t it also make sense that the bull market would benefit from the gap remaining since it would leave so many behind and in cash that would ultimately buy at much higher prices? If the coming move is the start of the big one, such unusual action would make even more sense.
Cory you may have missed by comments a few days ago.. I said cory should pat himself on the back as you have been bang on all through summer. All the while many screaming we were going higher.
Al disappointed with your 1300 dollar call yesterday not being breached lol.. Im just toying with ya.
Doc, you can and should say I told you so. You earned it. I’m a buyer today.
If Al is as bullish as I think he is, I have to agree with him. As technical milestones are reached, confidence will return quickly to those who are paying attention and know what they are looking at. Share prices will respond violently in many cases.
THERE ARE…………..7 BILLION PEOPLE IN THE WORLD…………THE USA HAS 1/12 the population of CHINA…………….gold is going to pass up the AMERICAN MARKET……and most American’s will be left on the sidelines wondering what happened to GOLD.
USA has slightly less than 1/4 of the population of China I guess.
Check your numbers again………..1.2 billion people in China…..
300 million in USA..
or at least that is what I have read…………..
USA 313.9 mil and China 1.351 billion. 1.351/0.3139 = 4.3.
4 times……I stand corrected…………fuzzy math…
American’s are still going to be left on the sidelines., regardless……..So, lets throw in some Russians, Indians and Bricks…………
It is very understandable. When you are prosperous for too long you lose vigilance. The most prominet cultures alway end in a period of disarray.
Doc, Al, and Cory – If I may ask: What do you consider to be your favorite miner stocks (top 3 maybe) and favorite Jrs? Thanks as always!
Would welcome other’s insights here as well.
Looking forward to the newsletter. name: Goldmember? 🙂 (having fun)
Doc Fan; I’m not an investment adviser but there are 2 stocks I like in particular and I only say that from a technical basis although the one on their recent quarterly report surprised the markets. The 2 in particular that I like currently (of course that can change are Richmont (ric) and Aurico (auq). I like these particularly because of their monthly charts—-in the future in our newsletter, I’ll discuss companies like these and put the charts up. Richmont has already had a double in the last 3 months.
If i can add to aurico, formely known as northgate minerals, it struggled for many many years as i was once a frustrated previous owner. When i had the chance to get out at break even i did. Now that time has passed and aurico has gone through transformation, decreasing debt, now with plenty of cash on hand and a dividend with growth projection going forward, this stands out as a solid pick. In the past they were beat down by the sector for there lack of grades, however they stand among the best when it comes to all in sustaining cost. A tribute to there desire for share holder appreciation.
Glen, and that’s what I love about TA—-which in this case is pointing toward the improving fundamentals that you mentioned.
AuRico was Gammon. I think they changed their name to put their, shall we say, suboptimal, past results behind them.
http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/755151/gammon-gold-announces-corporate-name-change-to-aurico-gold
That is correct Matt. Aurico then aquired northgate. Combined it has taken quite sometime but the ducks are aligning. Great mining jurisdiction as well.
Matt by the way the weekly on hui is looking toppy. Once again be careful and let us know when and if you sell your trading shares. I’ve made my calls very evident on here as to precise day I buy and sell.
Cheers have a nice weekend.
Glen, what is it about the HUI that looks toppy to you? Anything besides the stochastic readings? It looks very good/bullish to me (with the caveat that it might chop sideways a little longer than I thought it would).
Since juniors that I am most interested in make the juniors represented by GDXJ look like seniors, I am very unlikely blow out positions because of a price drop. As I have stated here many times, I buy weakness and sell strength. Otherwise, my exiting a position is based on company-specific news or a change in my “macro” expectations.
The weekly chart does not warrant selling/shorting here based on my risk tolerance.
Those who are nervous but don’t want to sell should buy GDX or GDXJ puts as a hedge.
In my opinion, the right action on further declines for most investors at this time is to buy or hold, not sell.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p78635825892&a=363950723
I’ll say it again, the miners, especially the juniors, look a lot better than gold.
Here’s a weekly look at GDXJ priced in gold (GLD):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ:GLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p48883919344&a=361385756
Matt I think you have me mistaken. I believe the bottom has been put in but im open minded to another take down before we head up. You can post all the charts you want and they are great charts like Ive always stated, but these markets are manipulated and there going to run the stops down once again. That’s all im saying. I bet you a friendly wager that we hit 1277/1280 at the very minimum and we close the 225 hui gap at the very least.. How about that bet Matt? He who losses gives credit to the other here on kereport. We all know that ta is never 100% bullet proof. That the powers that be can smash anything down when they need to. I know we are close but i also know not just yet.. We get taken down soon. Mark my words.
Of course Matt maybe we just head up like a bullseye from here and my long portfolio enjoys the ride.
Glenn, for the last month, I have reported on the strength that I noticed, particularly in GDXJ, as it happened. Those readings have already proved accurate as the miners and gold have refused to fall to the targets others here have put out. The signals remain mixed but the strength so far is undeniable.
To bet that the HUI gap won’t get filled is statistically very risky. Despite my nature, I’m not willing to take that bet. In fact, if we don’t blast higher very soon, I think 210 is in the bag, not just your 225. Still, none of my tiny juniors will get sold in anticipation. I will be a buyer though, probably mostly options.
Thanks Doc and Glen.
Matt,
There are much more things and indicators then just stochastics. But yes stoch has me very concerned. If you go back to 2011/2012 or even September of last year, every time stoch gets this overbought well we both know what has proceeded. So why do you think it’s any different now? Is it because your very sure there has been a trend change? Do you fully believe we are not headed back to test any levels like 1277/1280 at the very least?
Cci indicator and Williams % are also starting to scream sell. Gdx and gdxy both have gaps and and stoch are rising.
To enter here at these levels I would consider it suicide. Well maybe not to that extreme but I just think it’s a big gamble. Had one entered a week or so ago then yes I would look to sell my trading position today. But to stay in here now or want to buy considering all geo political events going on combined with Jackson hole meeting is a very big risk. This risk of believing the low is final and its in, combined with elections two/three moths away, tells me we are not done correcting yet. It also tells me the move will come later in the year.
I guess what I’m saying Matt is that for myself going in here as a trading position based on neutral/bearish sentiment that I feel is just not worth putting in my money. Even with your scenario as neutral/bullish is to much of a risk. Anyhow you know what your doing and it’s all a matter of opinion which I respect yours. Besides you seem to hedge like you say so I’m sure you can cover your but quickly if needed.
Glen, a lot has changed since the rally one year ago. RSI, MACD, CCI, Volume, Wm%, Coppock Curve, Vortex, etc, all have improved.
The CCI, Wm%, and stochastics remained oversold without interruption for half of 2013. I expect a similar situation in the other direction. Take a look at my HUI chart above.
Here’s a chart that I put up months ago. It shows the three major rallies of the last year. Note that the SCTR indicator required less and less price rise as well as less and less time before it turned up. Also note the dramatic rise in volume on each rise and the MACD making higher and higher lows. On the weekly HUI chart posted above at 11:07, note that the RSI remains well above 50 while it didn’t even touch 50 on the much bigger rally of last summer.
A new bull market has started and few believe it. Disbelief is bullish, since every market turns with the vast majority of participants on the wrong side.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p44566014240&a=354082921
3 Favorite Gold/Siver Equities
1.For_ Safety Central Fund of Canada (CEF) currently trading@ 5-6% discount to net asset value
2. Pretium Resources(PVG)-7 million oz reserve, option on 30+million oz going forward. and one of Best CEOs in business
3.Tahoe(TAHO) a buy@ 24-25/share
Ask to see the assets of CEF.
I like this one
Thanks Martin!
One up, one down, one sideways…
George Soros trades GDXJ all the time DOC. Lots of opinions out there about Gold and the Gold Miners. NO ONE knows for sure what will happen next, but it is entertaining listening to these guys even though most of them are wrong.
Looks like my call for a retest of 1277/1280 should happen sometime this week?
By the way the 10 year treasury is looking undersold to me. Looks like she is ready to rise. This will put pressure on the metals.
The 10 year YIELD ($TNX) looks like it is at or near a bottom (daily chart) which means the price should fall. A little longer term (weekly chart), prices could rise/yields could fall further. The monthly chart also suggests lower yields ahead.
DOC YOU’RE DA BOSS! Haha. Love it!
Do you have any fruther downside targets for GDXJ and what are they?