Avi Gilburt explains why he thinks gold will continue to move lower

August 27, 2014

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    Aug 27, 2014 27:08 AM

    Avi has decided to kill the miners. Of course they deserve it since they keep producing at a loss.

    Aug 27, 2014 27:14 AM

    It’s my opinion if anyone really knew where the price of gold was going they wouldn’t be doing podcast interviews.

      Aug 27, 2014 27:25 PM

      The price ISNT going to collapse..forget it…it would have done it by now…believe me…if they could…”they” would get gold back to its 250 lows of 2001…ha! Hang in there, man!

        Aug 27, 2014 27:08 PM

        I just wish I can get my orders filled. The price movement is quite boring lately.

          Aug 27, 2014 27:21 PM

          That was a great interview with Avi. I agree completely with him the risk is greater for a downside correction in gold this coming month than a breakout. So odds are good you will get filled Lawrence. You just might not like the follow through that accompanies that fill.

            Aug 27, 2014 27:42 PM

            Fine with me. I have about $Cnd 70K cash left so I will setup orders right to $10 silver. I have done that before and it worked out great. It was much worse in 2008. I remember I had to borrow money when the price of silver dropped under $10. I end up selling a lot when the price is over $38. Now the price of silver is back to pre-QE level and the miners are facing closure. It is like getting ensurance afetr house is bunt down. We either see silver unavailable or price goes up substantially. I never saw miners losing so much money though. It is worse than year 2000. I only buy Silver Bullion Trust from Central Fund of Canada at this point.

        ditto Marc…………..

      Aug 27, 2014 27:26 PM

      interesting thought!…very interesting……only the Chinese know where it is going…UUUUPPP…and only when they choose to send it there!

        Aug 27, 2014 27:07 PM

        Except that I am Chinese and I don’t know. LOL.

      Aug 27, 2014 27:39 PM

      …and we wouldn’t be commenting on this blog!! 😉

    Aug 27, 2014 27:15 PM

    What really frustrates me recently is that the price is refusing to collapse. I have several orders waiting to be filled.

      Aug 27, 2014 27:54 PM

      That problem is typical of a bull market. It taunts and frustrates would-be buyers before it thumbs its nose at them and takes off.

        Aug 27, 2014 27:09 PM

        This is not a bull market by a long shot Matthew. Not yet anyway.

          Aug 27, 2014 27:38 PM

          First, the secular bull market never ended. Second, the current new cyclical bull market that began after the December lows will be recognized in hindsight after everyone else gets the confirmation that they require.

    Aug 27, 2014 27:42 PM

    Avi Gilburt incidentally uses GLD to make his assessment on gold and he has used it wisely to make some of the best calls in the business. GLD is a proxy for gold of course but does not track it perfectly. What it does do that is far more interesting is give us all a read on US sentiment towards gold at a time when stocks continue to power higher. If anyone cares to look at that chart you can easily see why Avi expresses serious doubts about strength going forward and I do agree with his take. The chart is not signalling a big rise lies ahead but rather suggests further caution is warranted. The 1.20 level is clearly in sight. So all you guys champing at the bit to get on board the gold train might just want to think twice because the mood on metals is still pretty sour.

    Nasdaq’s Chart of GLD – One Year

    Aug 27, 2014 27:54 PM

    – “mood on metals is still pretty sour”. Is that the exact time to buy? I thought you buy when there is blood on street.

      Aug 27, 2014 27:03 PM

      Lawrence : whether it’s the “exact time to buy” can only be known after the fact, BUT… right now is as good a time as ANY to systematically accumulate whatever position you want to hold. Picking exact bottoms is a fool’s errand. Oh, and by the way… the exact bottom is going to be $1224. ( heh, heh )

        Aug 27, 2014 27:10 PM

        People who claim catching the bottom either liars or lucky stars.

      Aug 27, 2014 27:32 PM

      Exactly Lawrence, buy when there’s blood in the street, even if it’s your own. Not only is current mood very negative, even among gold investors, but, more importantly, it’s not warranted. Very bullish…

    Aug 27, 2014 27:19 PM

    to Lawrence, gold still likely to drift lower. when the commercial traders have covered more of their shorts then the beach ball will pop higher. they are still net short about 140,000 contracts. they got down to about 70,000 net short last time gold finally had a move higher

    Aug 27, 2014 27:47 PM

    I would think there is one more strong rally left after a small move down and then back down before it hits 1400. It so much easier to make money on the Nasdaq and not worth the risk with gold stocks. I can get 10 to 30% moves in a matter of a few weeks.

    Aug 28, 2014 28:02 AM

    As the uncommitted wish for lower prices the price has risen $20 for the week.
    Silver has broken out so keep on dreaming for lower prices.