Dan Oliver focuses on why the gold price continues to move down
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Not! The guy seems crazy as bats, CFS. Did you fall for that baloney?
Harvey is getting old, but been in the game a long time. I don’t think he’s senile, but may exaggerate.
It is certainly true that inventories at GLD and SLV were constantly being drawn down and that has nearly stopped.
It is also, although Harvey did not mention it, premiums over in Shanghai have been significant over COMEX prices.
I will put him in the same group as willie. Even there are some truth to it but they seems either too early or exaggerating. So hard to use their words as investment advice.
CFS See under Cory’s insights re inflation. People on this site seem to be so sure as to who are nuts and who aren’t! Me I’m just left baffled!
Couldn’t agree more, Andrew, but as a lifelong contrarian, I’m not baffled!
Off Topic: Matthew any idea why trading in AXU was restricted for a couple days?
I don’t know what you mean, I’ve been buying it without any issues almost daily. I wonder if it was an issue with your broker and not AXU. I checked their press releases and didn’t see anything there…
Every day? Why would you be buying AXU every day unless you are totally compulsive or a Stock Broker. See Matthew, that is what I thought. You are an industry guy and you should declare that up front so everyone knows it. Most of the people here who are buying miners are ordinary investors. When you start blowing sunshine with your charts and trying to keep pumping people up it is with an agenda. Nothing wrong with being a broker or dealer…I just think people here who seem impressed with your technical charts should know who is speaking and what their background is.
Bird, I scale in when things are cheap, that’s all. I think AXU is very close to a low. When it is close to a high and overbought, I will sell multiple times, again, incrementally. There are several right now that I have been making multiple purchases of. I have never been a fan of going all in at one level, but near a low, my buys do get pretty close together.
“Ordinary” investors are better off buying good companies at a good price and holding for a good move. The people who are least able to time the market seem to be the most likely to obsess about it! And lose money.
I do not have an agenda and am not pumping. I mention companies that I think have very good potential and reasonable risk. I mentioned CEM.v at a nickel or less a few times last year and it is up nearly 500%. I have mentioned others that haven’t done as well but I think they will. I am convinced that IPT.v only took out its 5/13 low of .52 because of the stupid decision by Mexican tax authorities last fall. I still own it and have bought more recently, but that was unwelcome to say the least. CRJ.TO broke down from .22 last October on the news that they were voluntarily delisting from the NYSE. I’m still laughing at all the people who thought it was going to zero based on that non-event. It hit .12 and I did not sell; I bought aggressively. Last month, it hit .32 and is .275 now. I still have about 95% of the shares I had at the lows. CRJ is going much higher.
Investors have to know themselves. Are you a trader, speculator or a long term investor? Or all three? Are your expectations realistic?
No, you can’t have the potential for huge gains without taking on substantial risks.
Anyway, I am not a broker/dealer.
Brian, did you see this today…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/claude-resources-drills-26-77-130000536.html
OK, thanks Matthew. I appreciate that. I really thought I was talking to a pro though (which is also a compliment, by the way) but it was mostly because of you sunny view point no matter which way the charts were pointing.
I agree that when gold starts to rise it will be a huge spike upwards….the timing might be a bit quick but you never know.
Gold is toast…. done. Dead asset.
Good luck making money in the PM space for at least the next 5 years.
I don’t think that the PM space will be dead for the next 5 years. I am not saying it will turn around tomorrow but to say the PM space will be dead leads me to believe that everything else – ie the conventional markets and the dollar will continue upwards… I just don’t see it.
I completely agree, Cory!
I think how long PMs are “dead” would depend on how much is available for delivery.
So far, all demand has been met with available supply.
Lottsa screaming but demand has/is being met.
We can believe those that say there is sufficient supply or those that say we are about to run out any second.
I think it would be easier to believe those saying we are about to run out if they would stop screaming its the end of the world as we know it any moment too.
Cant believe Cory and Al responded to this idiotic comment.
What have I just said:
In the gold is dust corner Joe, in the opposite gold will go to heaven corner Harvey Organ….good grief. I don’t know how much more of this I can take. Just shuffle off into my own corner consoled that I’ve got my insurance plan sorted.
Easy to say..Joe…we will see – wont we!
JOE SIX PACK………
sorry,,,could not resist……..just joking……….
I just bought a six pack of Black Butts Porter!
And I certainly am wearing the tee shirt. They probably won’t let me play golf in it tomorrow.
Just tell them , it is freedom of speech and expression…………
That was great guys. Thanks. Dan hit a lot of really good points including the relationship of oil prices at a time when gold is in decline. On a separate note Cory, I don’t know if you have time to tackle a question that I have been thinking a lot about….and that is, what do you think will be the impacts on the Canadian economy once stock markets do correct, gold rises, the dollar switches shoes etc? We always talk in terms of the US but Canada is still the largest trading partner and at this time it seems vulnerable with such high personal a provincial debt levels and housing excesses that remain unresolved. If you can find time one of these days I think a great number of listeners would be very interested in the views of your guests.
That is a great question Bird. I will bring this up to a few of our guests over then next week and see what they have to say. I have my own thoughts that I will share as well. In short I think Canada would get hit but can weather the storm better then our friends down south. I think a lot depends on how fast everything moves down.
Terrific. That would really be great. There are just so many variables in the pot now with resource prices down so much. Some people call the Loonie an oil currency even though crude is a relatively small part of economic activity overall. None the less, commodities still rule the land whether that is lumber in BC, Potash in Saskatchewan, Nickel in Manitoba or what remains of the East and West Coast Fisheries. If 2008 was a dry run of what is coming it is hard to imagine the impacts on the country since it weathered the last storm so well but failed to cleanse and correct its excesses. Housing never busted like in the US so there has got to be a lot of dry tinder so to speak if another banking crisis hits. Ontario is in shambles debt wise. Amongst the worst of all places really. I honestly worry.
Peoples opinion of Canada would be great.
“housing never busted” condos where I live are cheap in comparison, they hit a high for a 2 bed of 242, and dropped to about 160?ish, back up to about 230 and now around 200, but I thought that was kinda “busted”, maybe not, what do I know.
Probably the best measurement is not absolute cost but rather price to income. That tells us more about affordability than anything. For example condos are dirt cheap over here in real terms but they are often up to 30X local average incomes if not more. It really all depends on what people make. In Canada it is on the high side historically but prices are nowhere near impossible yet. It is only when you start looking at the remaining demands on disposable income plus tax rates that you can see how difficult buying a home is compared to other countries. I dunno bb, to me a price of 250 for a condo sounds like more than I would want to pay when a home is just a slight jump above that…..but then I really hate condos.
Here’s Harvey’s testimony to the CFTC. I thought he was quite credible at that time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=yeUI87hSvr0
CFS,
People on this site get defensive when you introduce a guy like HARVEY ORGAN interview into this site..if what they could wipe them out and their pro-dollar position and leave them grasping for air..well then..you are just stoking the investment fire fears..
That comment is just a general comment directed at nobody in particular..
No sweat CD. Harvey was making some pretty dramatic predictions though. It is the same kind of thing that keeps sucking the gullible in to gold markets. He does not know that gold will go to 10,000 this year let alone 2000 which most here would agree is a slim outside possibility. Basically he is just making stuff up. I cannot believe any of you would actually fall for it.
Just ask yourself this…..if gold ran to 10,000 what would that mean for housing prices, for the dollar, the Yen, for global trade? How about interest rates, incomes, energy prices etc?
If you have even the slimmest of beliefs that the Fed and other Central Banks of the world have any power whatsoever over economic outcomes then you can rest assured we will NEVER see any sudden price spike in gold like that in our entire lives. It is actually preposterous and would be almost without precedent in history.
Think it through SD….that is an 800 percent price spike. No way in hell is gold worth that much. Shoot, it is wildly overpriced as it is and should probably be revalued down to 1000 maximum.
Just remind everyone, FOMC meeting will be held next week. As long as I remember, gold price always was smashed prior to the meeting, especially when there is some big annoucement.
There were a couple instances early this year where gold actually moved up. However if the last couple months are an indication you will be right Lawrence.
An ounce of gold buys approx a couple of months of food or a good set of clothes; always has, always will…..with fluctuations.
Today we could go a lot longer than a couple of months and I could buy two suits!
Exactly. Gold is overpriced…still on the high side of the cycle.
This is a repeat from one of my September Song essays from last year.
Can you believe it’s been a year already
Interesting to look back and review your thought process…
September Song VIII
The end of September is now upon us and gold is banging its head against strong resistance of $1340. Once again it failed to take it out.
I said I did not like the price action on Friday and today’s action only confirmed this.
No only did it not take out $1500, my line in the sand; but it also gave up $1400 as well and we continue to have lower lowers and lower highs.
$1340 is now hard resistance and it’ll looks like we are going to retest $1305.
It also looks as if oil topped and is now caving and giving up the $100 handle.
This is gold negative. Once again when bullish news doesn’t move a market higher it is a red flag. This has been the case for gold for two years.
The no taper decision was a game changer and yet gold is basically at the same price it was before the decision. Once again when bullish news doesn’t move a market higher it is a red flag. This has been the case for gold for two years.
The government shutdown and debt ceiling debates are heating up, but it isn’t heating up gold either. It looks very probable the government will shutdown at midnight tonight.
Gold continues to muddle along, it rallies to keep investors hanging on, and then it disappoints. This has been the pattern for two years now. This is a classic bear market.
So where are we now?
To me it looks like June 28th could be the bottom. With each passing day we get further and further away from that day without retesting it. The longer we go I think the better the chances that was indeed the bottom. Also $1305 seems to be good, if not solid, support.
So it would seem strange to jump off gold now if a bottom is in.
Many smart people though are calling for $1000 or $900 gold.
By smart people I mean men like Jim Rogers, not pundits with opinions about how “they” want a better entry point to make more money.
So what do you do? Continue to watch and wait? That is what I’ve done now for two years.
And if $1180 was the bottom, it still is a very uphill climb from here. The old highs may never come back. Money needs to be put to work.
I’ve been in gold for 13 years, it had a good run but now it is time to reevaluate.
Everything that needs to be known is known, with the exception of the upcoming government shutdown and debt ceiling debates. Will this effect gold? Hasn’t yet.
I take that back, it has, only negatively.
Right now it looks as if gold and the markets are going to sell off and the $ once again will be the beneficiary of all this. Investors continue to flock to the $ as the safe haven.
As irrational as this is, if it continues you can’t fight it.
Two years ago when it got downgraded that’s where they flocked to.
Just goes to show you how fundamentals don’t matter.
I continue to put forth the hypothesis that the sequester was the game changer.
Now they will battle over defunding Obamacare.
If the republicans stick to their guns and get public opinion on their side I think they can win this battle and the upcoming debt ceiling debate as well.
Obama is now a lame duck president. The tide may be slowly, ever so slowly turning.
I believe that is what gold has been forwardly signaling for 2 years now.
Everything and everyone has to hit bottom before it can improve.
I believe the good old US of A may have done that and now will slowly start to right the ship, and least stop the destruction.
I could be wrong. And I don’t say this from an optimistic point of view.
I am just looking at the price of gold and trying to determine what could be driving it.
I think this is a plausible explanation.
It also fits in nicely with a rising stock market.
Either that or you have to cry foul over everything.
Let’s face it, and hear me now:
There is a huge disconnect between the two channels of media.
Either the doom and gloomers are wrong, or worse, it’s just a sales pitch to sell gold, or the CNBC crowd is wrong, and it’s a sales pitch to sell stocks.
This is what it’s come down to now.
I ASK YOU “IS THE DEBT TO GDP SHRINKING OR ISNT IT?”
We all need to answer that correctly. Because if you are wrong you are going to be really wrong and lose a lot of money?
The answer is yes, the debt is shrinking.
Also this Thursday and Friday claims report and NFP reports might show big improvement.
It’s time to cast your vote in.
We are on the verge of going one way or the other.
We can no longer have it both ways.
Also I am tired of having my money in markets that are being totally effected by pathological liars and egomaniacal adolescents. It is a disgrace.
I say shut it down!
Shut them all down! Throw them all out!
That includes that psychopath in Italy as well.
With that said it is time to take my double and look elsewhere.
Please keep in mind I still do not have anything better to put it in.
I’ve studied gold to death and now it is time to focus my attention on other pursuits.
I have a few short term goals.
First – I wrote some children stories that are, if I do say so myself, excellent. Everyone who reads them loves them. I am currently working with an illustrator to do the illustrations. After that I plan on publishing the stories.
I promise you if you have young children or grandchildren they will really get a kick out of the stories.
Second – I am considering starting a stable and picking up some horses. I will be considering investors.
Third – I am debating whether or not to write a handicapping book. This will be quite an undertaking.
Finally while all this is going on I will be actively researching where to invest my money.
Perhaps land or a business. No stocks. No bonds.
I might start my handicapping career again. At least I know my judgement and conviction will not be sabotaged by out of control governments, central planners, market manipulators and misleading media!
So for now I am in “Sell mode”
That means I will actively researching other investment options and letting gold do what it does.
Until you hear from me I have not sold any of my precious metals
I will let you know when I sell any.
Until then prosperity to all!
jAMES , YOU have some good ideas, and possible income streams……….go with what you know, and work hard ….it will pay off…….best……..
You are a truly interesting guy, James!
THE GOLD BEAR IS DEAD
Gold could not even fight its way out of a wet paper bag,
The Bear is very much alive
Thats what amateurs like you are lead to believe.
Go have another beer.
Its current Bear market is reality HH, its not a fairy tale.
I wish it was otherwise (my dumb money is invested in physical & gold stocks don’t forget) !
But the current gold market looks weak…..certainly not Bullish.
Go & have another hot chocolate.
Thats what corrections do they flush guys who can’t
recognize a bull market.
Keep posting skeeta….its nice to know I’m a lone voice.
The June correction was the same. Dec. 2013 the same.
Ha…this time is no different.
I’m not selling Heavy, won’t be flushed out.
But I won’t be holding my breath waiting for the Bull to return….I’d be blue in the face before that happens.
Like I said the gold price looks weak, I expect it to fall further yet.
…..if that occurs then its hardly the sign of a Bull market is it ???
Well skeeta,
We will all find out soon. This is a buying opportunity.
Remember, it always looks the worse at bottoms.
USDX is soaring, talk of gold breaking 1240 support.
Even talk of 1050 gold. GDXJ broke the 200 day moving
average. However GDXJ has still appreciated from the
low in June.
Sorry to be a buzz killer but I’m 100 percent certain its
a bottom or very close to it.
I’ve already been through this twice like I said and its precisely
how markets function. So many times over 30 years.
Anyway cheers !!! Wait and see.
Well if its any consolation I do see one ray of hope and that is the length of time that the commodity sector as a whole has been in decline. You guys who like cycles might just agree that could be indicating where the bottom might lie. Sugar broke through key support and now is heading to its next low from 2010. Other major commods. are just now turning up though after a long, long period of decline. These things are related to golds performance and may also be telling us about when stock markets will correct even if that is far off in the distant. For now the outlook on metals is bearish but we shall be prepared to embrace a positive change should it arrive.
We’ll all be cheering a Gold Bull arrival Bird
…..when it arrives
But HH & others who have previously yelled for $2000+ moonshot gold (on this forum) before the end of the year are going to be proven just as wrong as the bullsh!t artist’s like Polny.
Dreamers the lot of them.
I personally & financially want a Gold revival !
But dreamers of $2000 plus in the next 12 months should start their post’s on here with….”Once upon a time……”
Skeeta, who on this forum has called for $2000 this year? I don’t recall anyone saying that.
Statements without facts are meaningless
If wishes were horses beggars would ride
Read my post today on Doc’s forum.
The proof is in the pudding.
ONCE I WAS BLIND, NOW I CAN SEE.
You see gold equities leads the charge.
ITS A FRACTOID!!!!!!! Unconditionally guaranteed.
Yay man!
I do agree with yo uhh, Heavy!
Goes to show Big AL ….your as ignorant in the markets
as everyone else.
Bottoms always look scary and take out silly support levels.
Rarely even the highest regarded professionals know that.
Until gold equities collapse the gold bull will march on.
They have appreciated so far much more than gold.
So enjoy your fantasy of thinking you are anything
more than an amateur. All you are is a host to analysts
that should really be in a new school of market reality.
Not all, but most. They certainly have no idea when a
bull market is a bull market.
Anyway, its leading the blind here they don’t want to see.
Its always been that way.
Well that was kind of an un-Christian thing to say, HH. You forget about tolerance, grace, and patience by any chance?
Good grief HH – Is Birdman saying he’s a Christian????!! By the way I’m hitching my waggon to yours HH! Best, A
P.S. Or that HH apologised to you very graciously some time back BM, an apology which I don’t recall you ever acknowledged.
I didn’t forget anything. My message is just firm and one man to another.
I’m not a push over. Someone wants to try and clown me they better be
right about it or they will get a response from me. I don’t bring a flowers
with me either. BTW…Big AL is more than capable handling his own affairs
he doesn’t need you or ever will. Thats if he is a real man and I assume he is.
Now be a good boy and run along.
Andrew, we don’t slways agree but you are still the best in my book
regardless of the circumstances under pressure not to like something
you did. You will always be a brother and sometimes you are a big brother
more than not. Its very difficult for you to do wrong around me. You can
never do wrong. I believe thats what makes good friendships. Its having
the highest respect for that person and overlooking being critical in any
thing especially trivialities. Does that sound right Andrew ? I trust your
better judgment so I will pass the torch to a big brother who would know.
Well, if anyone does its you ★Andrew★. Ha..ha..maybe I’m nuts. Rich Blessings
to you who I know is a real sincere friend. : ◆} PTL too.
Yes, addressed to Bird.
His nose is where it doesn’t belong.
Thats OK. No big deal
I won’t admit to religious affiliations. That is personal. What difference does it make anyway Andrew? Either to the price of tea or the price of gold? Most of the religious tail waggers are full of it anyway and they use it as a crutch to explain away their human nature. God sees through it all no doubt.
HH Presume you’re addressing BM!!
Also Andrew, in my post to you was only referring to
how being a good friend should be. Hope you did not
take anything wrong because not saying you did anything
I didn’t like in any recent memory or even way past.
Just referring to friendships and how we should just let stuff
go over head respecting the other person because we like them.
Thanks for being a good friend. I deeply apologize if anything was
taken wrong. OK..★★Andrew★★ :◆}
To use a BM expression no sweat….was sure you didn’t mean me HH XX, A
★Andrew★, the posts got mixed and you defended me so anyway
just wanted you to know about strong friendships.
You will always be a dear friend in here to me no matter what.
You can kick me, beat me but I will never turn on you.
OK. :◆ } I’m very sincere about this…friends till the end !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Amen brother Amen…..all too few genuine friendships in Christ my friend I find. Lots of neutral believers but very few who burn with a love for Christ.
Oh God….now I have heard it all.
You bet !!!!
If you ever need anything ☆☆Andrew ☆☆ let me know :◆}
You will always be a brother. Just don’t kick me too hard..ha.haaaa
Ah…F..it..it builds strong character.
Smack..bang..boom…, lol
You do realize that 97% of our DNA is identical to that found in a field mouse. The only bits that are different determine size, breeding habits, length of tail and dietary preferences as examples. Do you think they have a God?
Birdman something tells me you’re aching for love. Maybe HH and I are the best friends you’ve got on this site. Try not to reply and just think it over!
HH I’m always learning EVERY DAY bro!!
good interview with harvey organ at:
http://usawatchdog.com/manipulation-of-gold-and-silver-definitely-ends-this-year-harvey-organ/