Gary Savage – Thu 18 Sep, 2014

We all have to be realistic with these markets

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Featuring:
Gary SavageAl KorelinCory Fleck

Comments:
  1. On September 18, 2014 at 8:31 am,
    dw jones says:

    how long can this charade go on?? we’ve pulled back the curtain & have seen the fed behind it but the average person on the street doesn’t care or believe it matters anyway. until it affects him directly he won’t care. the “good life will simply disappear as we know it before we know it”!!!

    • On September 18, 2014 at 9:33 am,
      cmc says:

      I never imagined the charade would go on this long, so now I say it can continue much longer.

      • On September 18, 2014 at 11:37 am,
        Big Al says:

        I happen to agree cmc

        • On September 18, 2014 at 9:27 pm,
          cmc says:

          Al, I think it’s due to a property of human nature to rather trust than to be deceived.

    • On September 18, 2014 at 11:37 am,
      Big Al says:

      Mr. Jones,

      I would bet that at least 95% of folks are totally unaware. They will only become aware if they experience discomfort.

  2. On September 18, 2014 at 8:55 am,
    James (the lesser) says:

    Fascinating interview.

    Gary likes the stock market and is recommending getting in after the next cycle low
    According to him that’s how you play and parabolic or bubble move.
    AMYONE TAKING THIS FOOOLHARDY ADVICE BETTER BE VERY NIMBLE

    MAKE SURE WHEN THE MUSIC STOPS YOU HAVE A CHAIR

    VERY BAD ADVICE IN MY OPINION.
    THIS WAS THE SIREN CALL LEASING UP TO THE 1929 CHRASH

    I GOTTA GET IN MANIA

    That is what he is recommending. He won’t be around when the bubble bursts.

    Al finally admits THE TREND IS DOWN. IVE ONLY BEEN SAYING THAT FOR A FEW YEARS.

    ALSO HE SAYS YOU CANT GET THE BOTTOM, BUT SO WHAT, YOUCAN GET IT 5 or 10 BUCKS ABOVE THAT. REALLY?

    0nly 5 or 10 bucks. This is outrageous.

    Does anyone really believe this?

    In a market selling at $1200 does anyone really think they can catch the bottom within 5 or 10 bucks? In essence that is catching the bottom.

    THIS BEGS THE QUESTION DID WE SEE THE. OTTOM TODAY!

    If so we are about 10 off it

    IS TODAY THE DAY TO BUY THEN!

    If you are honest you should say 50 to 100 off the bottom.

    No one even knows where the bottom is yet.
    To say you’ll get it 5 or 10 bucks from it, I feel is not legitimate

    How many people on this site have already tried to call a bottom and have failed, including yourself?

    I ASK YOU – IS TODAY THE BOTTOM?

    If you answer yes then we are within 5 to 10 bucks of it and we should buy
    If you answer no then you really have no idea when the bottom is and to say you can catch it within 5 or 10 bucks is ridiculous.

    I would retract that statement

    • On September 18, 2014 at 9:06 am,
      Gary says:

      James,
      During a final bubble mania the public goes crazy for an asset. We haven’t reached that stage yet. Heck index ETF’s only have 4% retail ownership.

      I got my subs in with triple leveraged ETF’s at S&P 1928. We have a huge cushion on the trade and are making excellent profits while everyone else sits on the sidelines because they don’t think the fundamentals support the move. What the heck do fundamentals have to do with anything? Fundamentals haven’t mattered since 2009. If the trend is up, and the Fed is going to protect the market then you have to be a buyer.

      I’ll say it again. Wait for the next daily cycle low in the next week or two and then buy into that dip and put your stop right under the low.

      BTW I’ll use the same strategy for gold once it gets into the timing band for an intermediate bottom.

      • On September 18, 2014 at 9:47 am,
        Derek says:

        But what if there is a crash in the pre-market? That case, your stop just below would not really protect you much. You could lose several percent before the market even opens. Possible. Perhaps it is just I here who cannot trade pre-market. I can trade post in the extended hours, but not pre-market. Is that what you Gary are saying – your stops also can get activated in pre-market? If so, perhaps I need to research how I can do pre-market trading, if possible. Thanks!

        • On September 18, 2014 at 10:00 am,
          Gary says:

          Markets as big as our stock market don’t crash without warning. They never go from making new all time highs to down 10% the next day. There is always a period of weakness as smart money starts to unload shares.

          The flash crash in 2010 started to roll over for 8 days before the crash came. in 2011 the market tested the 200 DMA before bouncing and then falling hard.

          The crash in 87 had took a month and a half to roll over before the crash appeared.

          • On September 18, 2014 at 11:40 am,
            Big Al says:

            Thanks for the response, Gary

    • On September 18, 2014 at 9:07 am,
      Birdman says:

      I don’t know James. I appreciated Al’s comments. Gary’s too. know, once retail investors get into this market later this year that will see the biggest gains in stocks. We will eventually be looking for a major wave up so it makes perfect sense to get involved (after a pullback perhaps?).

      • On September 18, 2014 at 11:42 am,
        Big Al says:

        I don’t think that James really understands the term “figuratively speaking”!

        By the way, we are getting involved with a great organization called Tembo Trading that is involved in working to improve the public schools in Kenya. To date they have been very successful. More later.

    • On September 18, 2014 at 11:39 am,
      Big Al says:

      Figuratively speaking my friend!

  3. On September 18, 2014 at 9:39 am,
    catman says:

    Gary, how you come you so sure you will catch a daily cycle low

    • On September 18, 2014 at 11:47 am,
      Gary says:

      I won’t catch it perfectly and I may have to take a couple of attempts to get it but I should get fairly close unless the Fed just aborts the move down into the daily cycle low.

  4. On September 18, 2014 at 9:41 am,
    catman says:

    Also you are the same guru who was crying to hell and earth not to buy the bubble phase of gold in 2011 and miss out on some great profits, what has change you to advise buying into a bubble

    • On September 18, 2014 at 11:48 am,
      Gary says:

      Nope wasn’t me. BTW that wasn’t a bubble phase in gold. At the top gold was only about 30% above the 200 DMA. During a true bubble phase gold should stretch 60-100% above the 200 DMA.

  5. On September 18, 2014 at 9:58 am,
    james (the lesserrr) says:

    birdman – what Gary is recommending is typical of what comes at the end of a parabolic move.
    he missed the move, now he feels it is safe, the fed has the stock markets back, and he can somehow manage risk. there is nothing new under the sun here.
    this is always the end of a move. when everyone is on the same side of the boat, they all think it is easy money, and they all think they can exit first.
    this is classic. it is right out of amatuer playbook.

    as far as Al goes, to say lets just wait and we will catch the bottom within 5 or 10 bucks i have to strongly disagree with. i repeat he should retract that statement.

    • On September 18, 2014 at 10:15 am,
      Jay says:

      James Al is correct re gold. Gary called the bottom in june 1 or 2 days after 1240, we bought in between 1250-1260 and more than doubled our money in a month off.. think you need to do a bit more studying

  6. On September 18, 2014 at 10:09 am,
    Gary says:

    James,
    You haven’t listened to anything I said. I’ll try again.

    Buy at a cycle low and place your stop right below that level. This minimizes risk and maximizes gains. We bought at 1928 so we have a big cushion and there is no way we will lose money on the trade at this point.

    For those who have missed the trade (and it sounds like you are one) the strategy is to buy at the next daily cycle low and place your stop right below that bottom. Your risk will be small and if we get a typical bubble top manic melt-up phase then you will be positioned to take advantage of it.

    I’ll say it again: What comes at the end of a parabolic move is the public screaming to get in. We don’t have anything even vaguely close to that right now. If we don’t’ have it then how can it be a bubble top?

    Heck sentiment is almost dead neutral right now for most sentiment indicators. Again I would expect to see bullish sentiment through the roof if this was a bubble top.

    Sometime in the next 5-10 days the market should pullback again. The perma bears will come out of of their caves and call the end of the bull for the umpteenth time. That will be your opportunity to buy at the bottom of a correction.

    When the perma bears stop trying to call tops then we will be getting close.

    • On September 18, 2014 at 10:24 am,
      Milty says:

      Same thing was said about gold and silver top in 2011. Everyone on the street will know the price and cab drivers will be speaking about gold. People lining up to buy gold at every store. It never happened cause the avg person didn’t have money to buy a $1900 rock. They won’t come back into stocks now either as they either don’t have the money or don’t trust this rally.

      • On September 18, 2014 at 12:02 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Milty, it didn’t happen in 2011 because that was just a blip compared to the final top that is coming.

        • On September 18, 2014 at 12:21 pm,
          Milty says:

          I disagree Matthew. I dont see average people having the extra money to buy gold if hyperinflation happens. Majority of people will go broke just covering the basic necessities.

          • On September 18, 2014 at 4:33 pm,
            Lawrence says:

            Milty,

            I am not trying to offend you or others here. The buyers are not and will not be Americans. US have been net seller for years. The buyers are and will be the East since these people have income growth at a rate 50 times in 30 years. Also you can never count on poor people to buy gold, by definition, they are poor. The ones buying will be rich people and there are a lot of them and each of them can buy a lot.

          • On September 18, 2014 at 6:59 pm,
            Milty says:

            Lawrence
            Don’t disagree with you at all. The point was you wont have everyone on the street talking about the price of gold and scrambling to buy get in. You wont have the mania in the US like tech stocks where all you need was a etrade account and $2000. Even among rich people only a small percent feel comfortable using gold to preserve wealth.

          • On September 18, 2014 at 9:21 pm,
            Lawrence says:

            This is why I say people are so unprepared. People have enjoyed prosperity for too long. It includes US and my home Canada. However if fortune turns, people would suffer dearly. Think those welfare receivers, I don’t know how can they survive when government runs out resource?

  7. On September 18, 2014 at 10:29 am,
    james (the lesserrr) says:

    Jay – what on earth are you talking about?
    First off Gary was expecting $1000 gold before he changed his mind.
    He puts things on the table and then takes them off as needed.

    Second, How can you say he “called the bottom”
    No one knows if we hit the bottom yet!

    If Gary called the bottom as you say then why would Al and Cory continual say they are on the sidelines, and waiting for the bottom.
    Just today he said you cant make money in gold and the trend is still down.
    This is not the talk or actions of someone who thinks the bottom is in, either now or back in june

    I think you need to go back and relisten to this interview and connect the dots

    • On September 18, 2014 at 11:45 am,
      Big Al says:

      Okay James, YOU ARE THE SMARTEST AND MOST ASTUTE PERSON ON THE FACE OF THIS EARTH!

      I am surprised that you haven’t tried to sell anything on this site yet!

    • On September 18, 2014 at 11:49 am,
      Gary says:

      The bottom of the intermediate cycle.

      • On September 18, 2014 at 11:52 am,
        Gary says:

        James,
        Yes I will change my mind in the blink of an eye if the market tells me my expectations are not going to play out. Just this morning I got right back out of oil as it didn’t do what I thought it should be doing if the bottom was in.

        The trade was a wash, we exited at the same price we entered.

    • On September 18, 2014 at 1:52 pm,
      GH says:

      Are you familiar with the concept of swing trading, James?

      It requires one to react to price action–i.e. ‘put things on the table and then take them off as needed’.

  8. On September 18, 2014 at 10:47 am,
    BDC says:

    If the dollar low at 85.27 holds, the target of
    85.26 +/- .04 may enable a good Gold bounce,
    maybe more, but the index must stop and drop
    from the blocking down-trend line (for now).

    FWIW

  9. On September 18, 2014 at 10:58 am,
    Steven says:

    You need to have a cast iron stomach and the capacity to hate with a ferocious passion to be a gold or silver investor. There may indeed be blood in the streets and heads on spikes and pikes before any of us truly benefits from our investments.

    • On September 18, 2014 at 1:17 pm,
      jhpace1 says:

      Wow – here I thought I was the only one! A cast iron stomach watching all your contrarily fundamental bullion buys and stock picks go down, down, down, and the fortitude to despise fractional reserve fiat currency printing.

      This is no less despairing than being a wet-behind-the-ears young broker or salesman at a large distributor and being told in profane, demeaning language by the fat guy behind the counter that you have to pay HIM under the table before you’re allowed to work in “his” business. That’s the boat we are all in with this manipulated marketplace. Some people choose to be willingly blind, deaf, and ignorant as to the truth of the matter.

  10. On September 18, 2014 at 11:11 am,
    james (the lesserrr) says:

    Steven – you are right about having to have a cat iron stomach, but the capacity to hate with a ferocious passion? what’s all that about? couldnt diagree more. you will need to explain that

  11. On September 18, 2014 at 11:46 am,
    Big Al says:

    James,

    Pray tell, what does the word “diagree” mean?

    And what exactly is a “cat iron” stomach?

    Please enlighten us.

  12. On September 18, 2014 at 11:57 am,
    Gary says:

    Nice breakout in the financials. The market isn’t going to top with the banks making higher highs. If they start to diverge for 5-6 months then we can start to worry. The advance decline line should diverge for 5-6 months before a final top also.

    Actually as I have noted before, a bubble phase tends to last about 1 to 1 1/2 years after the public starts to take notice. I would argue the public is maybe just now starting to take notice. I’m still not seeing anyone talking about stocks in public like they did tech in 2000, or real estate in 2006.

  13. On September 18, 2014 at 11:58 am,
    james (the lesserrr) says:

    Al – common Al. You know I was typing figuratively

  14. On September 18, 2014 at 11:59 am,
    james (the lesserrr) says:

    There i did it again

  15. On September 18, 2014 at 12:30 pm,
    james (the lesserrr) says:

    Many commentators on this site believe this is not a good time to buy gold.
    Stocks have been going up for sometime now; gold has been in a protracted downward trend.
    Who needs gold? is the general consensus

    Many people have also been trying to pick a bottom; and failing.

    We sit at $1225 right now.

    Your position if I understand you correctly is to wait for a bottom, and when the trend clearly reverses and it is safe to go back in start buying gold again (or some derivative of it, stocks, options…)

    If I am incorrect please correct me, this is my interpretation based on your comments in this interview.

    Now if it takes a while to know for sure that the trend indeed reversed you might not get the exact bottom, and if your $5 to $10 miss was only figuratively speaking and you really meant anywhere from $100 to $200 then why not buy now?

    Again we are at $1225

    If worst case scenario we go to $1000 then we are only $225 away.
    What is $225 in the scheme of things? Nothing.

    My point is based on your position – which is don’t try to catch the bottom, you can miss it buy a few bucks then I contend now is the time to buy.

    If $1180 turns out to the THE bottom, then we are only $40 from it.
    So again based on your position now is the time to buy.

    But none of your guests are advocating buying now so there is a complete disconnect

    That is all I am trying to communicate to everyone on this board

    There is too much money at stake now

    • On September 18, 2014 at 12:37 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Yes there probably is James.

      I am simply stating the obvious: When the trend has reversed, if a person wants to, move back in.

    • On September 18, 2014 at 12:52 pm,
      Gary says:

      I try to catch bottoms based on my cycles analysis. When gold gets into the timing band for a daily and intermediate bottom (they will occur together) then I wait for a swing before buying and once I’m in I put a stop right below the cycle low so my risk is defined. I don’t always get it right the first time, case in point I’ve tried about three times to catch the bottom in oil and I keep getting knocked out.

      Here is the example of how I picked the bottom of golds last intermediate cycle.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p36807209321&a=368189343&listNum=1

    • On September 18, 2014 at 2:22 pm,
      glenfidish says:

      James,

      Not understanding you..Are you bullish or bearish? Are you a buyer today or not?

  16. On September 18, 2014 at 12:43 pm,
    james (the lesserrr) says:

    I am watching this price level for a potential bottom.

    Today’s low of $1215 is critical and right near key support.

    if we stay above this level all of next week the bottom is in IMHO

    If we fail at this level $1000 cannot be rules out.

    bottom line: its sh$t or get off the pot time for gold

    • On September 18, 2014 at 12:57 pm,
      Gary says:

      $225 bucks is a 20% drawdown. You can say it’s nothing in the scheme of things but if one has to actually live through that in real time it’s the stuff that lead to ulcers.

      Almost no one would survive that kind of draw down. They would sell at some point on the way down or at the bottom. Why? because as the move is happening in real time when gold gets to $1000 it’s going to look like it’s going to $800.

    • On September 18, 2014 at 2:28 pm,
      glenfidish says:

      James,

      I called for a tripple bottom 1179/1180 a few weeks ago as know one had mentioned it in here as a possibility. Im liking the price action in gold and more so liking the fact that the miners are leading lower now. Like you I say if we can stay above 1200 by end of day tomorrow then i think 1179/1180 give or take a few bucks above or below going into first week of october would signle the bottom for me.

      Of course there is always the cat bounce and 1050 area of 2008 breakout.

    • On September 18, 2014 at 4:38 pm,
      Lawrence says:

      James, is your bottom price $252?

  17. On September 18, 2014 at 12:53 pm,
    don corleone says:

    Beware and dont fall prey to wall street call writers.They have been preparing this trap for the past five years.Conventional markets have been going up due to share buy backs and this was made possible thanks to the zirp(zero interest rate policy) courtesy of the fed.As a matter of fact the pe ratio of many companies is ridiculously high.Remember guys that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent and that applies for both shorts and longs.Atm bad news are good news or not so bad or less worse than expected and when the market falls there will be no good news at all.Banks are knee deep into derivatives and private and public debt are so high that the next market selloff is gonna dwarf the previous selloffs.The first domino is gonna fall later this year.

  18. On September 18, 2014 at 1:00 pm,
    james says:

    Oceania is at war with Eastasia. Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia. Eurasia are our allies…….

  19. On September 18, 2014 at 1:16 pm,
    don corleone says:

    James if you look at the monthly logarithmic chart of gold you will notice that the picture for gold has turned bearish and its ripe for another leg down which put the next target for gold at $889 which is the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of the 1999 to 2011leg up and besides that it falls in the path of the 200ma.IMO It will be reached by not later than june 2015.My 2 cents.

    • On September 18, 2014 at 1:19 pm,
      Lawrence says:

      How does 1999 and 2014 has anything in common? Many supply is up 8 times and there have been two financial crisis in between.

  20. On September 18, 2014 at 1:41 pm,
    don corleone says:

    12 years bull market for gold was from 1999 to 2011.We had the tech bubble,the housing bubble and now we are inflating the sovereign bubble.A country is very close to default and it is coming when you least expect it. Hint-it’scapital is athens.Cyprus will be the next then italy and spain (the 2 elephants in the room).Europe is gonna lead the world into recession this time.The right wing parties in europe are gonna pop the sovereign bubble.The thing that will cause the markets to selloff is gonna be beyond the control of the central banks and far right parties if elected will not abide to any central bankers rules.Mark my words.

    • On September 18, 2014 at 5:27 pm,
      Gary says:

      I would suggest that it’s impossible to default as we can print as much money as we need to service the debt. However at some point that could lead to breaking the currency.

  21. On September 18, 2014 at 3:08 pm,
    james (the lesserrr) says:

    first i was told %5 or $10 was figuratively speaking.
    now i am being told $225 is too much

    why dont you make up your mind and let me know

  22. On September 18, 2014 at 3:09 pm,
    ian in England says:

    Reading the posts on here about how low Gold is going to go.
    Makes me think sentiment can’t get any worse. So as Bob Moriarty says about market timing, the only reliable sign to watch for is SENTIMENT.

    • On September 18, 2014 at 5:31 pm,
      Skeeta says:

      In that case just I can only imagine the sentiment when gold breaks down & plunges through 1180 in here.

      …should be a blast.

      • On September 18, 2014 at 5:44 pm,
        glenfidish says:

        skeeta what percentages are you giving that we breal 1180?

        can’t begin to think where 950/1075 region would put most miners at..Im thinking 2001 lows for most.

        • On September 19, 2014 at 12:13 am,
          Skeeta says:

          GF,
          IMO if gold bottoms & the first two numerals begin with 11 then fantastic ! I personally will be both relieved & happy…no matter how long we drift sideways or climb slowly.
          But thats not what I believe…
          I think we are going to see the gold price break 1180….1000 even possibly…wouldn’t surprise me to see it go into the 900’s even.

          What are the percentages of this you ask ?

          Ask Big Al & Cory ….to me the answer is obvious….
          When the comments on this forum/blog are only down to only the true diehards/crazed lunatics/despaired stackers (myself included) & the downloads of their daily commentary have fallen to such an all time low that Al, Cory & co even wonder why they bother to even broadcast it ?
          Then that will be around Golds low IMO…..thats when most will have washed their hands of this yellow commodity & totally given up.

          Big Al, Cory & co have golds barometer in their hands.

          …..but they fail to see it.

          look out below !
          Cheers to all.

  23. On September 18, 2014 at 5:30 pm,
    Gary says:

    Actually gold sentiment is at 24% bulls. Pretty depressed but then it has been much more depressed at the June and Dec. bottoms. The fact that sentiment is consistently dropping below 30% and not triggering a rally is usually a sign of an asset that is stuck in a bear market.

    • On September 18, 2014 at 5:45 pm,
      glenfidish says:

      Fair enough comment gary..

  24. On September 18, 2014 at 5:50 pm,
    glenfidish says:

    On another note guys

    10 year treasury higher today=check
    us dollar rally still in place=check
    euro headed lower=check
    canadian dollar headed lower=check
    oil prices cat bounce/fake out?=im still calling for a break into the 80’s very soon.. Im playing the contrarian play here.
    Rates going higher will be one of many triggers to cause the fed to act.. I smell blood and very soon a change of tone by the fed..

  25. On September 19, 2014 at 3:19 am,
    don corleone says:

    Central banks will suppress the price of gold to portray the illusion that their respective paper currencies(mainly yen,euro,sterling and usd) still gain foothold for bilateral trading.What they are not noticing is that they are doing a big favor to china because the more they suppress it the more china hoards and when the time comes they will peg the yuan to gold and the yuan itself wil become the worlds reserve currency.The yuan will become a gold standard currency in the forseeable future.