Friday Morning Technicals from Rick
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Cash, would you comment on the filling links, please? http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/09/19/manipulation-here-we-go-again/
His thoughts on manipulation make sense to me.
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I agree with Armstrong that manipulation cannot continue indefinitely.
I probably disagree on how long and how often it can occur.
He is a shorter term person. I think in terms of decades not weeks.
Fundamentals always win eventually.
What worries me right now is the over $450 billion of margin-owned stocks in the US. When the market turns the rate of the drop could be record-breaking.
Finally, I never “invest” money that I will need to live on in the next few years.
I have been living that way since I effectively retired more than 2 decades ago.
We happen to agree with your philosophy. (Not need to live on during the next few years.)
2.
http://blog.milesfranklin.com/just-three-days
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Yes, I read that on Harvey Organ….definitely food for thought.
However, it is easy to underestimate the ability of the Fed.
The can can and will be kicked down the road longer than most people believe possible. It amazes me how long it has been kicked so far.
Thanks I am still digesting.
I heard 1017 recently mentioned!
CFS…..Do you agree with me that everybody should be buying physical silver at these prices. ?
I certainly will not buy any and even if I had pelnty of cash I would not. I have some metals already, too much for my income level and I am sick of owning it frankly, even though I bought it many years ago. I can still sell it at a nice rpfit, the bullion stuff.
As for the numismatic stuff – some of it has risen into 2013 but it may have toppe by now. Most of it was a waste of money – the bullion outperformed by miles, except for a few select pieces. Numismatic coins in my opinion are ridiculously overpriced and in a bubblle and I will never buy any again. You can’t get a bargain anywhere, unlike 10-15 years ago and that for me is proof enough.
If I had done the right thing and sold it all in 2011-2012, then I would have started buying some bullion back now but I think frankly the bull market is over for a long time and bounces will not reach the highs of 2011.
The burning question is, if you bought silver at $10 or below a decade ago, is it time to bail before it gets back down to $10 and is therefore no better than cash in the bank at 0% interest? There will surely be people who have that dilemma who will be tempted to bail.
Secondly, at 4% per annum inflation, general prices would have risen by 48% in that decade. So buyers of silver at $10 need to sell at $14.80 to break even after inflation. At 5% inflation they need to sell at $16.20 ti break even. It’s getting close.
I don’t think the bear mareket will end until a lot of PHYSICAL investors sell out on such a notion.
I was offered £210 cash sterling each 10 days ago for some bullion Soverereigns (0.235 oz Au each), some originally bought at £65, others at maybe £80. Melt was £180 and it is £170 now. That surely is a good deal! I felt it would be sheer insanity not to sell and enjoy the money. I don’t think the price will go down to £65-80 per coin again but there are others I bought at higher prices.
ok, let’s put the chicken back in the cage!!
Big Al says “Exercise caution before jumping in”.
The following is not advice, but a partial rebuttal.
Folks need to ask themselves this question, “How did Rick Rule and Sprott become worth a billion dollars?”
I’m not worth a billion and don’t even aspire to be a billionaire, but have found that it is better to heed the advice of successful people.
Sure, they often talk their books, but what are they doing? Do you not believe they are looking for opportunities and buying?
Hi CFS, what are Rick Rule and Sprott say about the current down draft?
“This to shall pass”
Based on my understanding, Rick Rule probably busy loading up. This is how this guy got rich. If Sprott guys dump metals instead of buying, they are losers this time and very inconsistent with their past behavior.
Likewise, the fact that Warren Buffet has personally not bought any regular stocks in his personal account for over two years speaks volumes about his view on the regular stock market.
Yes it does, CFS
I don’t think that I would disagree with either Rick or Eric. I am just slightly more cautious.
Al, do you believe miners will keep producing at a loss and risk bankruptcy?If they do, what will happen after they are bankrupt?
Since some bullion vehicles have broken down so badly, I’m going to hold an impromptu in 20 minutes, at 12:45 p.m. EDT. A few minutes before the session, go to http://www.joinwebinar.com and use session ID #148381274
Requires a download?
Maybe an applet, but nothing serious. I condusct these impromtu session regularly, so stay tuned. I’ll make a recoding of today’s session available on my web site, http://www.rickackerman.com
Thanks.
VIX slowly climbing. Great first few minutes on McAlvany post.
http://mcalvanyweeklycommentary.com/
I think the reason the market got hit suddenly was the start of Alibaba trading as money got sucked out and investors than came back to them as Alibaba fell. eg.twitter.
Interesting point Paul L
FYYI, Comex December Silver still looks lower, bound for a minimum 17.390. The good news is that it can be bottom-fished there aggressively with a very tight stop-loss.
With bullion, especially Comex Silver, getting hit so hard on Friday, I held an ‘impromptu’ technical analysis session that was open to all. TO access the recording of the session, go here: http://www.rickackerman.com/2014/09/technical-analysis-gold-bullion-silver/
The silver behavior is happening in London, where there appears to be major supply being provided to China. It amazes me how big money can use paper to shake out weak hand’s physical. But I see it happening almost every day.
I have to believe there are a lot of ignorant sheep out there who do not even realize when they are being fleeced.