Food for Thought from Dan Kurz
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Disclaimer:
This is Dan Kurz, investment advisor for Naples Asset Management. My remarks today are general in nature. They are personal observations based on global financial, economic, and political developments and trends. My observations are topical on the date made and reference asset valuations, interest rates, and inflation rates as of the same day only. I am not soliciting business. I would welcome follow-up discussions with listeners/potential clients as regards strategic portfolios should they be interested and assuming my firm is duly licensed in the listener’s state
Gold to the moon….bearman
Dan K. is precisely correct.
YOU JUST CAN’T HANDLE IT.
You can’t handle divergences in gold equites.
Prices are cheap …very cheap compared to debt.
Goods and services.
ANYTHING POSITIVE IN GOLD…you can’t handle it.
What a piece of work you are.
Go pound the pavement …just a big baby.
GROW UP
Let’s be nice!
Had no prob with anything Dan said.
Doesn’t make any diff to me what the Technical charts point to, not all that concerned about what the fundamentals point to either.
Al’s comment earlier today was spot on!
He acquirers physical metal –metal that he can hand to his kids one day.
I’m buying Physical with both hands; It brings me unspeakable joy to be able to do so at discounted prices!
At the risk of being morbid, remember that there were many life boats launched from the Titanic that were not filled to capacity.
Are you in a life boat?
Taking it just a bit further for more of my perspective….
Life boats once launched, that still had plenty of room….moved away while peeps were alive in the water….knowing frantic’s would overturn the life rafts….I ask again, are you in a life boat?
“Nice” will never be an adequate cover for ignorance or propaganda. Let him speak as he pleases Al. In the months and years to come, when we again review the history of comments, his words will prove to be as worthless and empty as all the others who promoted precious metals when prices were clearly crashing.
The Denver Gold Forum: ……….Feedback From The Horror Edition – ZeroHedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-24/denver-gold-forum-feedback-horror-edition
EB, you are a JOKE and the most ignorant guy posting here.
That is very helpful. (Not)
Listen Matthew, at every major breakdown in gold’s prices during the past two years that I have been posting on this site you have always insisted that there would be a reversal higher in price.
I was almost convinced a few times, Now you are doing the same thing again. You are claiming that NOW is the time to buy. You wrote that. You said it several times. And the poor saps who listen to the tripe you spout and are most impressed by your worthless charts are being set up to lose money yet again.
What makes you so sure this time is different? Or is this a stopped clock scenario?
You obviously don’t know what is coming next given how wrong you have been in the past. In fact I know you are still wrong. Do you want to know why?…..Well here is a primer my friend. The ECB is intent on Euro devaluation. That has been the single biggest market trade since I first alerted you to it many months before it became a reality.
Today, the established view in the investment community is that a trillion or more in stimulants via Bond buying and the accumulation of other debt instruments including selected MBS’s by the ECB will potentially take the Euro to dollar parity.
This is happening in conjunction with rates being crushed to below zero and the effect is that it is driving capital out of the European Union and into US equity and bond markets.
These developments are expected to continue for as long as two years. I cannot understate their significance and you would be wise to adjust your focus on gold with these major Central Bank initiated considerations in mind.
Calling me a “joke” does not change the facts. For in fact I can easily rationalize exactly why gold and silver (and most commodities) will suffer under just such a major policy regime. It is not therefore stupidity on my part to come to rational conclusions about the future trajectory of resources and commodities.
So let me tell you this one last time since you appear to be pretty thick. We have entered a secular bear market in commodities. Gold cannot be a substantial beneficiary under these circumstances except on a cyclical basis as it has a tendency to trend along with the entire resource sector. The direction is flat to down.
What have you got to counter that?
Show a little humility and make an honest attempt at analysis for a change. You have been DEAD WRONG about gold for three years running. Show me factually why this time is different with a few proofs and make it a good case.
Calling me a “Joke” is not an argument. It only keeps you in the retard camp.
Birdman,
You consistently sound like a genius because of current market conditions: Sounds like the old saying (GEORGE S. PATTON) GLORY IS FLEETING MY FRIEND…I will see you on this massive bull market in the PM’s when they resume….but, its scoreboard baby…I get that…I REALL DO…:)
What I sound like will depend a lot on how closely you have paid attention to what I have written in the past two years. Most of you guys are so fixated on one direction for gold (up) that you totally ignore all other points of view that are contrary and might have benefited you had you taken the time to tune in and listen to what was being said. Basically most of you gold bugs are one-track long-only and that is why you keep suffering losses. it is not my problem pal. I warned you many times already.
Next time listen.
Havent lost a cent birdman – I diversified into the bernanke-yellen put and bought RE at rock bottom prices……but, if YOU KNOW THE FUTURE – THEN I AM ALL EARS!
I guess I do know the future because as far as I can tell I am the only person on this site who has even come close to correctly assessing the gold and silver markets these past years.
I have far more experience with metals markets than the average guy though. Been buying, selling and following the ups and downs since the Sixties. Maybe that is it. Maybe that is my real advantage.
You see, I have heard almost all of these stories before. There is little new under the sun and there is never a shortage of gullible souls to eat it all up. I just find it incredible that so many otherwise normal people on this site continue to be impressed by the many hundreds of creative and ignorant failed arguments in favour of holding precious metals.
Despite all that has transpired for prices and trends we continue hearing (even today) that gold is about to turn around and soar much higher. One or two posters here insist this is still a bull market for Christs sake. They offer about as much evidence and proof as someone trying to prove that the earth is flat.
“Just you watch” they shout!
If you don’t buy today you will miss the turn!
There is no gold left anyway!
The Chinese have secretly bought it all up. They are making a new reserve currency.
The Indians are also soaking up global supplies!
The Russians are trying to subvert the West and kill the dollar!
One day a big paper buyer will stand for delivery and then look out above!
The people will be screwed and we will all flounder helplessly as the dollar crashes to zero!
Jesus Murphy it gets boring after a while……..
So rather than listen to a little common sense coming from me about this market that is based on very standard and easy to understand metrics you all would rather obsess about German gold repatriation, COT reports, bank manipulation, Federal Reserve suppression techniques and paper trading. It verges on pathetic.
It is not some miracle that has caused me to favour a negative view on precious metals either. I use information that is publicly available and easy to understand such as interest rates, inflation and expectations, dollar strength, Central Bank policy and that sort of thing.
By coincidence those are also the same kinds of data and information that is programmed into most automated trading programs and those are exactly what determine whether the market is buying selling gold on any given day.
What is so complicated about that?
Meanwhile all the emotional and subjective hyper arguments presented by the gold-bug consortium have not had any appreciable effect on metals prices in all of the last four years as metals declined relentlessly to today’s numbers. In other words, those convincing theories are almost all bogus down to the very last one.
It is shocking anyone sane would still be sucked in by the false sirens and wild claims.
Fools and their money will always be parted though. And maybe you did OK in other areas but I will bet you are losing on your mining and metals investments. GDXJ and GDX are both down 15% in the past month. Yet the incessant pumpers insisted they could not ever fall this low again.
Dan Kurz meanwhile just continues in the same stream of thought that has dominated the themes that have cost precious metals devotees a fortune during this bear market phase. He follows in the footsteps of others before him and repeats the same ideas as if they are damned facts. And he does it without acknowledging that those failed ideas have not yielded positive results for anyone thus far. Incredible.
Despite overwhelming proof that both gold and silver have entered secular bear trends (and this is fully supported by commodity cycles analysis) he continues to ignore all evidence that refutes the tired out theories and continues to spout theories that have already conclusively proven to be costly to investors.
It utterly defies logic that Al and Cory keep presenting this same material on the show over and over again. I suppose they are both fully invested in this market though and have a lot to lose if it does not turn around.
Where the hell is the objectivity though? The only guy on this show in recent months who has offered any alternative viewpoints (and one that is decidedly more bearish than the usual offerings), is Avi Gilburt.
Otherwise that leaves me pretty much alone here as the sole voice of reason most days. NOBODY wants to hear it though. Despite being correct I have been ridiculed and insulted. Instead of reason and logic we are treated to a host of posters stupidly repeating the same tired mantras and insisting that gold is in a secular bull market and a big turn around is imminent!
Honestly, I sometime wonder if some of them are just handicapped. I really don’t know because we can’t talk to them face to face but when a person makes a mistake this big in the investing business and despite continued loses just keeps repeating the same error I can only conclude he is either a shill or a retard.
Because no normal person can be that stupid!
The reason is not for trading according to an off mike conversation we had with Dan.
Anyway Bird, I will continue to listen to all.
I understand that Al. I tried listening too. It is just that Dan seems to be singing the old tune from six months or a year ago even though there have been considerable changes in the market in that time. Maybe I just think he is out of touch because he talks without addressing the current themes. All I know for sure is what he is saying, while it may be valid at some time in the future, just sounds like the same old stuff that convinced so many people to hold positions even as metals went against seriously them. I am in disagreement with him at almost every turn. I know and feel certain beyond doubt that we are currently in a major declining phase of both general commodities and the precious metals markets. The numbers don’t lie. So I just cannot be convinced by his arguments and assertions. When does the day come when we wake up and accept that gold and silver’s bull market is finished for this cycle?
Bird, most of the precious metal I hold was bought quite a few years ago, anyway I am still in the money but that is not my reason for holding like many here. I have not purchased anymore for 2.5 years.
Good move DT. I respect your good common sense.
Larry Edelson said today 9/24 at 6:30 am.
We are not heading straight down to 1050.
This is my very thoughts right now. Larry
says we get a bounce to 1258, 1280 or 1300.
After the bounce I feel we could go back down.
Exactly what Larry says. I have said if this bounce
is not a huge thrust up I’m selling it. Then its telling
me this rally has no f..ing legs. Its anemic and it will
fade breaking 1180.
Reason I say this gold has had plenty of time to really
break out. I say we either break out huge to the upside
or if not this gold bear will remain until we have a final
flush.
So to think gold is falling off the edge right now is
not likely at all.
Gold will have one more chance to get out of bed.
If not the shorts will pile in because of the weakness
and we will see much lower gold prices.
I’m certain Larry incl. myself will change opinion
regarding gold if it really gets going to the upside.
THATS WHERE THIS GOLD MARKET STANDS RIGHT HERE AND NOW.
I say we need to take out 1300 damn quick. Gold can’t waffle anymore.
Devil’s Advocate:
All markets can be manipulated longer than ordinary investors can remain solvent, while invested.
How can markets be forced to collapse as long as money can be created out of thin air?
Until enough people refuse to hold fiat, they will not collapse. Rome happened 2000 years ago. This time it is different; money will be printed and enough people will use fiat until all here have long since died.
I find it a bit difficult to disagree with you Professor
Rome ….fell (one reason)………because they failed to pay the military with gold…. TODAY,.The military families are now asking for FOOD STAMPS…they are not making enough …..end in sight.
Jerry,
SPOT ON!
thanks SD……….
Al, Dan Kurz is excellent and knows exactly what he’s talking about. Btw, the average life of a fiat currency is very short.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gY1EcCUu5nw
My comment stemmed from the fact that the longest a fiat currency has lasted is a couple of hundred years, give or take.
Matthew and AL…Check out FRANK GIUSTRA…on KITCO.com….It doesnt get much better than this guy…..hey, Matthew is Frank your mentor…HAHA!!
All the best!
Marc
Thanks Marc, I finally got a chance to watch the interview. It’s good to know that Giustra agrees that the miners are more interesting than gold and that nothing has changed that would suggest that the bull market is over.
Confirmation bias. Enjoy your losses. How are those GDXJ calls working for you?
Wow, you are hilarious EB, those GDXJ calls were sold in June and July! I did very well on them too. LOL…….
Who is EB?
You, Elmer “Birdman” (Fudd).
Oh…ha ha……ha ha……one hand clapping….ha ha ha…….
Thanks for not sharing what the other hand is doing, appreciate it.
I have no idea what you mean. Can you please elaborate and help me out. I am sure the other readers are curious too. Especially the many children who come to the site each day. Maybe you should be more specific Matthew.
“Wow, you are hilarious EB, those GDXJ calls were sold in June and July! I did very well on them too. LOL” — Matthew
——————
It is funny how you always make claims about getting into a trade but we never learn you got out safely until after you are challenged. You must be a genius to time things so perfectly but never tell anyone until after the fact. And it suits an anonymous website so perfectly. I really mean that, man. It is very, very funny.
LAUGH OUT LOUD!!! Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha!!!!!!!!!!! What a loser!
You are totally confused, EB. Perhaps you’re thinking of my recent purchases of GDXJ SHARES not calls??? Those I still own. The last time I bought calls was end of May/beginning of June. They are long gone.
I see you’re enjoying yourself in “Africa.”
https://deadwrite.files.wordpress.com/2010/11/one-flew-over-2.jpg
The sentiment in mining stocks is at a 71 year low. This spells opportunity. When combined with other factors that shape the current market structure, it spells opportunity with a very favorable risk/reward profile.
https://www.goldbroker.com/en/news/gold-sentiment-how-bad-is-it-596
So far, every bottom has been greeted by another lower bottom. Who cares about 71 years since we obviously live in a different time and under considerably different circumstances where gold and miners are concerned.
It comes down to are you a trader or a long term investor…if the latter, best not to put your $ in something going down, but also to recognize potential bottoms. I see a possible s/t pop as Gary does…but then down further to test lower lows…rsi at least is around 20 in gold = buying signal…but that’s the paper mkt.
People have to remember my philosophy on purchasing gold and silver which is not dependant on short term fluctuations.
Investors are going to sell the next bounce so don’t count on a lot of upside. About the only reason we see a bounce is because shorts will take profits. New dollars coming into the market will be thin until the washout phase has concluded. The only positive is that there is money accumulating physical at these prices but as usual that is not going to be what moves the market.
Can We do a poll in here?
I’d bet it be like 70%plus at this given moment now suddenly have all become gurus and 1050/1000 is a for sure thing… People are talking out of there arse..Tomorrow we have a black swan and its gold to 2000..
At this moment im invested 100% long and short term. Not sweating it.. I know value when i see it and i also know we are due for at least 5%-20% bounce..
Also my call on triple bottom holding at 1179/1180 give or take is still on the table. The longer this 1200 holds up into october, the longer im licking my chops. Its the exact sideways action i have been looking for into october which by the way will mark one month remaining for elections. Some are very focused on 1180 but a triple bottom does not need it to close or touch 1180. Right shoulder can be slightly higher. As long as it’s within the vicinity.
With Hui at 203/205 today and with two gaps left one big one at 198 and a minor one at 192, Id like to see a slam on sunday night into the 1190/1180 area and bounce from there on monday or tuesday.. That could be a nice bottom. We shall see.
Not sure you noticed or not, this becomes a trench warfare. The price is pushed down and defended, one step at a time. Look at the price move for gold especially silver since July, it is a straight line down without any significant bounce. I never see any other market doing it. It is too perfect. Same with the down trend for the last couple of years. A market with millions of participants does not do this. The string will stretch until it breaks. Nobody knows how much ammunition they have and how much loss they want to take. Only thing I can do is to see the value and add when price goes down.
Yes, Lawrence AND STAY SOLVENT, my firend, UNTIL THAT TIME COMES…:)
I will pass my gold and silver to my children like my grand parents did if it comes to that.
ditto SD…AND Lawrence………….
There is no way for me to sell my PM cheap. I see the system starting to crack since 2008. It is important to have something outside of the system anyway. Since the production cost is already above the current price and the total production already start to drop significantly last year, I don’t see there is too much room for PM to drop. I also don’t believe elietes want all miners to close. So the chance of buying at lower and lower price would not last too long. So I can envision that I can put my new money to something else next year, maybe buy another house for my son.
good idea…..on the shelter for the son….the kids are going to need all the help we older folk can give them……………..Keep them out of bondage, from the elites
That excuse will help your wife sleep better at night. So what if the current investment has lost money big time. There is always time for losses to be recovered when the children get to sell at the next top! It’s just a generational thing. Screw investing for profit here and now!
There is no way to make money simultaneously in all fields. If I have real estate, pension, Oil/gas, transportation, emerging market, uranium, gold/silver, fertilizer, … and only PM is losing money for NOW. Since all of the rest are in the system, I need PM to balance them. I am sure PM will protect me for inflation reason alone. I don’t worry and I don’t need the money for the next 20 years. I hate to think I work hard to make money and someone just grad it by printing what I have.
I hope you did not neglect to notice the black plague for gold that just rose on the horizon. It happened today as the dollar soared above 85 thus virtually insuring gold will break down on the next attempt at bottoming its support. Sorry to say but anyone betting on a third bounce off support is going to be burned and fried in gold particles. Meanwhile the relentless claims that the dollar is seriously overbought and must reverse down continue to have little value to real investors. As is often the case, overbought conditions can carry on much longer than most contrary bets can afford to keep up the fight. There continues to be no doubts in my mind about the continuing trend downward for both our favorite precious metals. It is therefore inadvisable in my opinion to embark on anything other than very short term trading where the potential exists to benefit by brief relief swings.
glenfidish,
Do you mean that you currently have 100% of your money in just PM’s and miners?
Jmiller,
Im not quite sure what your question is leading to? A response from me that would make you say what a dummy?
Not to play smart ass with you but if you have followed some of my calls dating back to march I’ve done exceptionally well.
To give you the benefit of the doubt, i hold bullion “hard asset” purchased in 2008.. 10% of my wealth.. I hold two portfolios in miners. One is long, the other short. Both holdings contain identical companies. I’ve been kind enough to share one with all of you when asked. Iamgold is the one. Richard “doc” has held many conversations with me regarding the companies i hold. Further to this I hold a very tight stop “which I rarely use” due to the fact that we are close to a triple bottom, and any smart investor must respect. If it’s triggered, well i guess i lose a hair but remain sane. I own property in canada and south america. I think i’ve said enough lol.. How about you share a thing or two?
cheers
What does JM…hold…………
Sorry for not checking back. I have 11% in physical PMs as part of a diversified portfolio and for “insurance” should the remote possibility of some kind of currency crisis/hyper-inflation happen. About 35% is in cash equivalents and the remainder is in stocks and bonds. I am a long-term investor who reallocates based more on the longer-term outlook or trend . Rarely do any kind of trading. If I do it is with EDV. I do not buy individual stocks, only because it takes time to do research, so I stick with mutual funds and ETF’s. Most people who post here seem to be more active in trading and in buying individual stocks.
If you are looking for a multi-bagger no matter the price of gold and silver check out V.FMG. I am hearing streaming deal to put there high grade Karen zone into production. Big JV will be announced in the near term. I am hearing Fresnillo but others partners still at the table. I don’t play the physical or majors. I prefer the juniors and intermediates that will profit no matter the commodity value.
Bottom line is that nobody knows for sure which way any stock, etf, or asset class is going. The herd is still gathering steam so stocks will still bubble higher we think. PMs need a rate increase. Once the Fed does that, good things will come to PM bulls.
TY, you may see negative rates when the quantitative easing can’t be phased out. Real estate will go nuts.
That is incorrect that NOBODY knows where prices are going. That idea keeps getting repeated over and over again lately but it is a falsehood. Even Doc insisted that nobody can read the future beyond his three week window. It is ridiculous. Of course some people see the trends in motion. Some see them with great clarity. It is just that nobody will listen when they speak.
America has defaulted on their currency before so this is a road we all know can and will be travelled again, life goes on but be prepared just like The Boy Scouts.
Matt,
Have not held dialogue with you for sometime. What are your views? I mean bias aside, gold cap off, are you sensing a breakdown and a bigger decline into 2015? or do you see a bottom very soon an a bo polny explosion up?
Always nice to see you views and birds. Two different animals from different worlds.
I see at least a short term bottom very soon. We’ll see if it ends up looking like a long term one. I do not think we’ll see $1050 either soon or in 2015. If we get a big decline in 2015, I think it will start from a much higher level. Maybe we’ll touch 1800 in May, for instance, and then plunge all the way back to 1525 or so.
The miners are poised to do extremely well even if gold just rises modestly.
Strong season is coming , more physical is purchased from now on. It will take more to bring the price down. Silver eagle sale is a lot stronger than last year so demand is good. SGE has only 82 tons silver left, so they seems to have trouble sourcing silver. The comex Short position is extreme. The best case scenario is we will have a low in the next week. It is too good an opportunity to let go. I have several orders for sbt.un. I used to have over 4000 shares when it was released in 2009 and have only 1000 left in 2010. Now I am nearly back to the original number. It is exciting.
Sorry I mean having 1000 sbt.un left in 2011 not 2010.
I feel it might be wise for Americans to own some physical or physical ETF outside of US. At present US my not care about gold in your hand, but when it comes to a financial crisis and fort knox is empty, confiscation might be back in the card.
“Strong season is coming” — Lawrence.
——–
I think you are mistaken. This is the strong season. You mean weak season is coming.
“Confiscation might be back in the card”
———
Why confiscate when taxation is so much more efficient and easier to employ?
Bird, I may have to answer you once. If you look at gold seasonality for the last decade or so, the summer is weak and winter is strong. This is because of festival seasons coming in several countries in Asia who bought more than world gold production combined. It changed only last year due to intervention but physical still supported. Just look early this year.
Chinese officials already mentioned that they will back yuan with gold if crisis hit. US may have to match it unless they want China to replace their role. World reserve currency worth a lot.
Let them back the Yuan with gold. That is about as helpful as doubling the Yuan versus the dollar and it will put a knife straight into the heart of exports and most domestic Chinese manufacturers.
In short it will be an economy killer at a time when all the major nations outside the US are all actively devaluing their currencies. If they want a hard landing that is probably the surest way to get one so I strongly suspect the person who made the claim you talk about is not a senior member of the government.
Why don’t you provide a little evidence of your constant wild claims about what China will do instead of constantly leaving stupid implied threats from China that amount to fluff and nonsense. Just talk. never any links or proof. You have not earned any respect from me in all the time you posted here because what you write strikes me as a bunch of ignorant rumours and nonsense.
In other words Lawrence, many of us here are well aware that China is currently engaging in an information war online and that disinformation like what you offer (with no links or substantive backup) is being spread to confuse investors in the West. So basically, get off the crap-pot because I for one do not believe a GD word you are saying anymore.
Bird, feel free not to answer my posts, like I don’t answer yours. I mentioned it is in financial crisis. Trade is the last thing you care about when system is collapsing. Someone even mentioned reserve currency. I don’t think they care one bit about how west investors are doing. I may be able to find you a link if you read Chinese. But I am not interested in pissing fights. I don’t have a lot of spare time like you. Hope this is my last answer to you
If there was anything of substance like what you suggest is written in Chinese papers then it will also have been picked up by a legitimate media source in the West.
So let me just state I am not actually calling you a liar but I AM challenging you to start posting some valid links to back up your exceptional claims about what the thinking is in China.
And by the way it matters not that you do not respond to me. I shall continue to hound you each and every time you try to promote an agenda that is not in line with current thought nor supported by legitimate media confirmations.
You have made quite a few claims recently about what is going on in China and what the authorities are stating. I am seriously beginning to wonder if you are not part of the disinformation campaign currently being run that is intended to create discord amongst Westerners.
Let us just say I am guarded about you and do not trust your judgement nor your assertions.
Lawrence, you are right of course, the crazy troll just can’t help his compulsion to spew BS.
http://www.usagold.com/analysis/seasonal-35.gif
Sorry man. I am not a Troll if I have been consistently correct. My conclusions were spot on with the dollar, gold price trend, the Euro, end of QE and the initiation of Stimulus measures in Europe. Trolls do not normally have any insights.
hello any one see Uranium price is up?
Been watching closely these past few months Lawrence.
I made out like a bandit $ wise many years ago on a local Aussie listed Uranium play that Rick Rule was buying / spruiking up bigtime back then….Paladin.
Sold out / paid tax / bought property.
Paladin today can’t make profits at the current price & mothballed mine in recent times.
Uranium will rise significantly again….as will gold….its just a matter of timing.
Cheers.
Glad I have company. PDN may not be the best choice. They have trouble finding good resource. I like several Canadian companies like Dennison, Cameco and UEX. Their mine concentration are 100 to 300 times richer. U price is up almost 30% but share barely moved. You can see the bearishness, worse than gold. This the only sector I lost money. Would be happy to get my money back.
BTW, this RR guy issharp.
Lawrence,
UEC is my only current uranium holding.
Honestly…Its still in the red from where I bought it.
I’m not selling though.
Forget Paladin these days Lawrence, they q need $70 price to even get out their mine out of care & maintenance.
Skeeta, I remember that RR mentioned the average is around $75 so they are slightly above average. I have a little pdn but hate their losses. Cameco gets very high grade so they are the only one making money and paying a dividend I guess. I think Russian stand off should be good for U. Anyway, I need to go back to get some sleep. good luck to all of us.
NUGT already broke down. GDX will follow shortly.
We will see if GDX bounces off support, Matthew. I really don’t think so judging by this mornings continued losses on gold. Silver is in the critical care ward. The five minute chart looks ugly so the open won’t likely be your friend. Those who shorted are making out like damned bandits right now. I doubt they will relent when they have the bulls gored and bloodied on his own horns this badly already. I already told you….silver will fall until the longs squeal like stuck pigs and roll over. That is still coming. Silver is being murdered.
$1800 gold price in May next year ?
Ha ha ha Matthew !
I say we’ll see closer to half that amount this year / first half of next year before we ever recover to $1800 gold.
….want to bet a nice bottle of wine on it ?
🙂 Go for it Skeeta. He will NEVER make that bet though. All guessing and no substance.
Bird
My check list if you remember continues to go as plan.. Nice to see my targets hitting one by one..
hui gap 225=check
hui gap 212=check
hui gap 205 =check
hui gap 198=Next
hui gap 192= microscopic gap but i believe they may run it there.
All above gaps where called by me and so far on track. I guess i have some credibility :).
Euro downside target of 26=will happen by today or tomorrow
Euro next stop 124
Euro next stop 121
Euro next stop 118/119 Final bottom possibly?75% call
All above I have called. On here I called for 126 or 124 i can’t remember
Us dollar higher=check
I’ve been calling for this long before gary and others changed there views and jumped on this wagon.
Dowjones called for higher until November 4th give or take=On target and rolling over soon
Canadian loonie i was calling for 88 bottoming=On target
Wti oil price I have been calling for much lower prices, in fact said on here awhile back we would head back to 60 wti or some number around there=Once 90 is taken out and 80’s begin, look for a steep drop into 78 resistance.. Perfect storm for gold..
The above call happened all while Bird said we were going much higher on wti oil. Remember that call bird? Cmon give some credit.
Gold/silver ratio I have been calling for 78/80 target.. Most on here thought not possible..= Broke 70 few days ago and on target..
gold/hui= On target signaling a bottom very very close.
Dow/gold ratio=I did not give a number but I see10/11 as a final resistance.. It will hold..Possible13 final top and then turn hard.
Miners=What more can I say? Many at 2001/2008 prices. Book value looks like the best fire sale I have seen in quite sometime. Short ratio in mining companies decreasing month to month.
When I look at all this Bird, the odds favor a turn more so then extended down trend. The money to be made has been made already. The shorts are running out of ammunition. How much more can they squeeze? The bigger money to be made is shorting the dow and going long miners.. That is where the next wealth transfer will occur.
Skeeta and EB, did you guys notice the words “if” and “maybe?” How about the last sentence?
I’m focused on the miners. As I said, gold won’t have to do much for the miners to do extremely well.
Lets see if you have the guts to make a bet with Skeeta.
Matt I agree that the miners will make a big move on the first half of the gold rise.
There is no question we will get a relief rally Glen. They always come. But the old supports have now become the new resistance. The trend in metals is still down until further notice. You could do well to buy now. You could also lose your shirt if you bet on the wrong companies because there are still more nuts who need to be shaken out of the trees.
And a note to Dan Kurz…..I believe you are absolutely 100% wrong that another round of QE is coming. That makes no sense at all when everyone including the Fed has acknowledged that renewed interventionist policies have lost their capacity to produce better economic results for growth or expansion or to move the needle on velocity.
On a dollar for dollar basis the costs of increasing the purchases of Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities as a means to stimulate the economy are already near to exceeding the benefits that are accrued.
For the Fed to continue to expand their balance sheet at this stage when it has become clear what is really needed is fiscal initiatives, would require they can be convinced they can get a better bang for the buck. Otherwise it would be foolhardy and a waste of resources while at the same time increasing the odds of creating further asset bubbles.
The Fed is not as stupid as you seem to suggest. I will not suppose they are actually in the bubble-blowing business but rather their efforts were intended to stimulate growth, ease credit conditions, expand the money supply, keep rates low and with luck….just maybe induce an increase in the expansion of the economy and employment growth.
What you and most others seem to fail to understand is the basics of capital flows into the US as the dollar rises, stock markets excel and an enticement of rising rates is put on the table.
All of those add up to a form of Quantitative Easing in themselves except that the boost in the form of capital inflows is being provided by the private sector, overseas investors, pension funds, Hedgies and banks seeking the benefits of a combination of rising rates, higher dollar and equity market strength.
I happen to believe you are totally our of touch with what is taking place in the real market. You cannot just theorize about why the Fed might initiate more stimulants. You must do much better to earn my respect. What I mean is you should at least make an attempt to rationalize why the Fed might print more money when it is clear from their statements that no more QE is coming.
What possible benefit would there be to the Federal Reserve to attempt another round of QE or to expand the money supply at a time when billions upon billions of US dollars are already streaming back into the economy in the form of Treasury purchases, stock market investments or real estate acquisitions?
If you are really an investment adviser I strongly suggest you review your basic thesis because it is utterly flawed in my opinion and therefore your ideas cannot help the unwary to appreciate the huge changes taking place in the markets at this time. The suggestion from you that gold investments must benefit from another round of QE is just just extra dressing on an overcooked, burned turkey.
When did QE ever help gold?
To be crystal clear…I would not pay a wooden nickel for your advice.
The language im getting from the fed is we will wait forever until data shows us we cn increase rates. Ladies and gentlemen, this will not happen. Under obama watch rates will not go up. They are going to come out at some point and say, breaking news, economical data suggest we are in the shits.. Houston get ready to deploy the printer. He who does not see that is a complete moron. Sorry for the kind words.
So when you are proven wrong does that make you the moron? Just curious to know since usually the sword cuts both ways.
If im wrong and they increase rates in 2015, I will absolutely call me self a complete moron. I put my money where my mouth is :).
News Flash….GDX just broke down this morning, Matthew. So much for your charts and analysis. Exactly as I warned you and it was indeed telegraphed by yesterdays falls in NUGT. All just a bunch of bunk and thin hopes from you. Sorry about all your followers who get to swallow that loss one more time. Maybe they will learn.
Not likely though.
So much for your breakdown. You are doing far more harm than good by trying to get others to be bearish at $22.
Do you know what oversold means???
I am not *trying* to do anything. Each person must make draw their own conclusions from the market action. I would not disagree a relief rally is coming soon. They always do. My only point is that the trend is currently down. There is no guarantee of a huge upward surge no matter how low prices gets at such a stage when capitulation is in the air.
It is you who have been doing damage at every step along the path down as you argued for sharp reversals. You said the same things at 1550, at 1350, at 1300 and on and on. All of it wrong.
Eventually you will be right. I will be buying then too. But you won’t get any credit whatsoever for the change because you don’t know how to estimate the bearishness of this market.
I never said that we are about to get a “huge upward surge.” Sharp reversals come in many degrees in terms of time and price. That’s why I said above, we’ll see if the low ends up looking like a long term one.
As for my actions, I bought into the lows each time and you did NOT. You advised SELLING gold precisely at THE low last year.
So…
http://therapup.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/STFU.jpg
Gold was NO bubble in 2011.
https://www.goldbroker.com/media/image/cms/media/images/gold-sentiment/spot-gold-year-year-percentage-change.png
I said silver went parabolic. Not gold. Go back and check.
First, I wasn’t addressing you, our resident Keynesian genius. Second, “Parabolic” and “bubble” are not the same thing. Third, the secular bull market did not end for either metal.
Matt, I am jealous of your patience
Lawrence, I have to admit that I had a lot less patience more than a year ago. That was before I realized that this guy is just a bad joke.
You cannot counter even one of my arguments. Not even one. The joke is on you.
Yes they did.
Bird and matt,
I ask you both to tone it down with the back and forth. Both your views are welcomed here. Maybe it’s best for both of you to put each other on ignore for awhile. Tensions are high on both sides. I don’t want to lose either one of you as you both bring valid points. Insults don’t help guys.
Have a scotch on me.. A well deserved glen 🙂
Scotch sounds good to me! 🙂
Nice try Al. But I am not biting today. The guys is so wrong on so many points I cannot be bothered to begin countering it. We heard this all before. Blah, blah, blah, blah….buy now or forever hold your peace……….to da mooooon!
Good grief.