There is so much happening in the markets…
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Caution Bob, events have had minimal effect on the gold price for some time now.
I thought everytime Putin upped the ante in the Ukraine this summer that gold also spiked. In fact, before the Ukraine got hot the price of gold was drifting down nicely wasn’t it?
Not the way I saw it, I put some cash on it moving up because of Putin in the Ukraine. Wrong.
I should have listened to Bird on that one, he actually said it wouldn’t affect the price.
Maybe your right tho, but Im not betting on events for gold for awhile.
I don’t think it is possible to use army. Not in Hong Kong anyway. It might be police but there is no difference than now. Government paid heavy political price for 1989 and turned people into enemy. Those old sodiers has died out already.
Lawrence, I heard they arranged another mob to fight the mob in HK?… LOL.. Thailand model, First there is a mob; the yellow shirt, then Red shirt is set by government to avoid being blamed of abuse of power.
I don’t care about HK news since I have never been there. However, I read a Chinese investment news group so HK news show up once a while. I read that some people get pretty irrated with the traffic jam and other feel students are used by US to sabotage China. More worry about Chinese authority will move the financial centre to Shanghai and turn HK into a poor house. All kinds of conflicts show up. I know there are different factions, pro-China and anti-China, etc. Quite messy and divisive.
BTW, they should not be mob. They are young kids, highly idealistic. I think they truly want democracy.
Well, Gary, guess gold down a bit more yet, Im sticking with not going lower than about $1000.
Bird? saying gold not a good place to be?
The way I understand Bird is gold is a great place to be, shorting it.
There is also a time to buy, bb. Believe me on this, I will be a buyer at the right moment. As long as momentum is still down though I won’t touch it and this current period has been a bloodbath for most longs.
Don’t forget, there are many who come to this site who have held all the way from the very top in gold but are so desperately underwater it just makes no sense to lock in all those losses anymore . Yikes!…..anyway….i just wanted to point out I am also a bull when the day comes.
Guess I would just say this…go with the trend that is in force.
I enjoy listening your analysis and you guys are obviously knowledgeable, but Gary Savage’s voice had inflections in it today that clearly indicated that he was nervous and a little exasperated – he even made the admission that he’s reached the point where he can’t really read the charts for proper guidance going forward. Sadly, it is now clear that nobody is even remotely an expert on precious metals because the markets are A;lice in Wonderland. I’ve never seen anything like this. Up is down and black is white. I liked what Al said the other day about Old School market viewpoints and analysis has gone out the window. It has always been hard to make money, but you could at least rely on basic tenets of market correlations to make educated decisions that would typically yield some fruit. Today, the reliable logic of yesterday has become nothing more than a Vegas crapshoot.
The USD was up 1.10 and at market close was near its daily highs, Ricardo. All of it made perfect sense with the exception gold did not seem to decline in proportion to the dollars rise. This was no crapshoot though. Remember when the falling dollar was supposed to send gold to the moon?
Well that sword cuts both ways.
Ricardo,
“he can’t really read the charts for proper guidance going forward”
You need to pay closer attention. The only asset that has me exasperated is the dollar. I’ve had no trouble calling the stock market or gold market. I’ve been saying for a week or more to look for a bottom in stocks on the NFP and that’s what happened.
I’ve been telling everyone to stay out of gold for several months. Yes we are due for an intermediate low at any time but it’s going to require the dollar to top first.
Gary… from your perspective, any insight how much more fuel the USD has?… Gee… it runs parabolic now not even pause.
$1190 gold is huge support. Let’s see if it holds.
Yes it is Tyler. The lower number some quote of a year back was actually a spike down. This is really the bottom where we sit now and it is a time when the devotees will probably be loading up expecting a big bounce.
I doubt that happens unless it is a head fake. If gold drops below 1190 on a closing basis it will trigger an avalanche of stops and sales as few will want to risk a steeper (and unknown) decline.
Like I said before…it looks like dead air space to me under todays number. Another fifty dollar sell off is hardly out of the question in the next few trading days.
Oh wait…this is Friday!
See y’all Monday morning!
And both GDX and GDXJ are hovering not too far above long term support. We will see how they fare by days end. This should be interesting as the closing bell looms because decisions must be made NOW….not early Monday morning.
….and sure as shoot’in both sold off in the last few minutes.
As an aside, the HUI and GLD are both currently sitting at literal bottoms from last December.
Can it get worse though as GDXJ has already lost almost 10% today alone?
Oh yeah……it can get worse. Things can get a lot worse. Silver has been sliced and diced to the tune of almost five (!) dollars being flayed and ripped from its living flesh in just the past 90 days. Who holds on through that kind of decline without questioning their sanity (and trading account).
Want to know what I think? That maybe early next week we get a surprise decline in stocks that finally forces the dreaded margin calls and that is what finally puts silver and gold to bed. Lights out baby. We are standing at the very precipice of recognition this day when the Gold-Bugs are going to finally meet their Waterloo.
Sorry about that…GDXJ should have said 6% declines and not 10%
Tyler,
That support will not hold. Gold is going lower. Birdman and I have been talking a bout a strong dollar for months.
All the while being screamed at and told we were full of ****. Well we were 100% correct.
Don’t fight the trend, and the trend is down for now. When gold is ready to go up, it will and you will know the trend has changed.
Stand back and let the market tell you what its going to do. There is no need to throw money at gold when you can buy it lower. Its not going to run away from anyone.
Wow I knew I should have sold all my precious metals to buy a quadruple leveraged dollar ETF …..
I’ll keep saying it, at some point all of the bullish fundermentals for the US economy will get priced into conventional stocks….but when is anybody’s guess, I know
GORY Wants to go back to kansas sorry Gory you can’t ANYMORE !
Gary, your cycles are wrong. You said dollar was headed for a three low 2014, your stock market cycle was wrong, and truly beileve your gold cycle would be wrong.
My calls on stocks have been correct. I’ve been saying for a long time that folks need to focus on stocks right now. Gold’s time will come but this isn’t that time.
It sure won’t be now that gold is down and the dollar so strong. We could have a long road ahead before we see higher prices. Some people already calling for a V shaped bounce. Good grief. That is totally unlikely. After a beating like we have seen not many but the adventurous will be jumping to buy (which is exactly what we would like to see at this stage of the game). Sentiment will stay in the gutter for a long while.
the HOUSING BUBBLE was not good……….
I used to like this site as it was a great place to hear and read about the junior exploration sector. For the last few years it has become infested with gold haters who dominate the board. It’s a shame………anyone know of a good place to go to discuss the junior exploration sector. This site is now a main stream haven for hard asset haters.
Not totally true…..Vince………….I agree there are a lot of basher lately, but, a few are still hanging in there…………………………..ootb
Not true Vince. Maybe you have seen the charts? Do you want a discussion of reality or do you want sunshine in your pipe? If you had come here and tuned in recently you might have avoided a lot of losses. Your choice, man. The fantasy stuff is still available on KWN.
AL ?
Not talking Franky. They are a little disgusted right about now. Maybe even shocked that the bears were correct in the end. I don’t know if a few rounds of golf can cure these blues either. Only time will heal.
Vince is a perfect example of the narcissistic nature of the gold sector.
He wasn’t interested in hearing the truth, or the trend or the dollars place in the big picture. Only in conversations that fit a preconceived narrative, (mining stocks) but not the ugly truth of what could effect them negatively.
The human mind has some weird attributes about it and its quite amazing to see when illogical thoughts are defended.
thanks for the input V………………….J………
Just saw that Indian government has cut the import tarrif on gold and silver by 6% and 10% respectively. This might not impact the gold/silver price since the price is set by leveraged shorts in COMEX and LBMA. It should impact the price in a longer term if this trend continues.
What a great day for Gold !
We broke through 1200,
Now we just need to plunge through 1100,
Then 1000.
Miners should be blowing up left, right and centre when we get into the lower 900’s
Those who do survive will be a pittance of todays share price & ripe for picking.
These will be GOOD TIMES indeed !
I can’t wait.
….embrace the gold bear market…..its your friend.
Months back I had said the dollar is headed to 87 and it looks like it will not stop yet. Gold is a dangerous place to be. I will just trade my regular stocks.
Im expecting $1154 next week and a $1129 October low before any kind of bounce.
China will send the Police/Army into Hong Kong within days to clear the protestors IMPO – that will spike gold.