Monday Afternoon thoughts from Bo Polny
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Corey
As I heard, Mr. Polny wasn’t basing his view of gold not making new lows on one day’s price action. Let’s see what happens.
I must say when 1200 broke there was an avalanche of bears. Even some long term bulls were a little shaky.
That is true Jerry!
Including me, Al, but I’m in for the long haul.
Two longs …do not make a right…………………
Two wongs do not make a wight!
You are a genius Machine Gun!
Al, if you look at the 1 hour chart gold you gonna see a PERFECT miror what happens at friday; exactly what happens with the second botton gold in december 2013. Awesome coincidence…
Thanks Peter
Corey is with Gary S … I am with Bo Polny. Let’s see who’s right?
Me this hard core bull will not be flushed out even at 980 gold so don’t expect from me to post here i sold my shares. It won’t happen. I am the most hard core you will ever see. I will be selling my gold at 19xx gold as i don’t expect for it to break 2000 at first try.
I absolutely do not agree summer of 2015 gold will see 1050. Not possible to have 4 year correction in gold in bull cycle. That never happened in terms of time EVER
Goldman called 1050 gold, we have a ways to go yet to see if they are correct.
Nothing saying we don’t overshoot that should it happen.
Personaly, I think the gold price has a lot to do with the amount China has.
I also think we get a bull once its been decided they have what they need.
Hows that for tin foil hat?
Goldman is entity that is behind manipulation of gold. Why would anyone listen to what they say in that case. They said same number last year and it never happend and we went to 1400. When negative articles appear on front pages of main stream papers and main stream media blast gold full force, that is when you mark the bottom if it alligns with techical low in which case this did.
Good point, Stewie!
Thank you Al. If you can make Bo a regular that would be awesome.
If not then once a month or twice a month would be awesome as well.
I think that a couple times a month will work for all of us.
Thanks, Stewie, for the comment.
Do you have a feather in your hat, bb!
A feather in my hat?
The only opinion I have had about the gold price is that I don’t believe it will go much below $1000, I never said I expected it to get there, just if it did not much lower.
I am talking about you hat, man! (Joke)
everyone is a little ticklish here………….we need a featherduster ……
Thank you IN THE BOX!
BB, Goldman called $200 oil as well in 2008 and the price only got to $147. If the $1050 is not materialized, it has an effect of throwing uncommitted bulls out of the market. A very vicious call.
Good point, Lawrence!
Maybe Lawerence, but when they called for $200 oil up it went, maybe things changed before it got there? To hard on the economy maybe?
Same as their call for 1050 gold, down it went, maybe they just spot new trends?
But within 200 from 1900 is pretty good if you ask me.
Or maybe they called for 1050 when it was 1800 and it went up to 1900, I forget precisely how it went.
For this call, they called it when it was doing the 1550 ->1320 crash I think. They can say later that they made a good call and it came within around 100 dollars of their call. Nobody is perfect. But it does not help us if we are out waiting for it to come.
On the bright side, Goldman’s actions will make the bull market much stronger. I’m sure they’re trading against the “muppets.”
Maybe Im wrong, but I think once we do hit bottom gold and its related shares are going to be profitable.
excuse me but Bo stated gold had had its Low in the summer..
YES QUEEN 8888888888 !
Well we’ll see in few weeks if this was tripple bottom and higher low then previous two. Bo said number figures he calculates are based on fibonacci number which sometime is 50% or 65% so price might be off but he said his cycles allign with time so he knows more of time wise more then price wise. So technically he still may be right if 3 bottom holds. We’ll see soon i guess!!!!!
Sorry Sally,
I did not hear that. Please explain. Thank you
I think Norcini pointed out the other day that triple tops and bottoms seldom hold.
That’s the guy that got removed from kwn for saying gold was going to come down I believe.
Oh, and Nadler removed from kitco for the same view, funny how people don’t want to hear opinions other than their own.
Yes I listened to both of them before. Nadler misled people all the way from 300-1500. He always predicted lower price in the years to come so whoever follows him would not buy gold. Kitco finally got rid of him after many years’ failed call just before he finally had a successful call. Norcini always gave two directions and never have a commitment which way to go, so I stop listening to him even when he was on KWN since it really did not help me. Too many but, if, however, maybe, etc.
I remember when Norcini said on KNW if silver broke $27.50, then look out below. …And here we are way below. I still like reading his blog. Think he does a good job reading the ADX. Just saying, he’s not all that bad. I have no idols; and quite frankly, neither the technicals nor fundamentals help a whole lot in predicting the direction a corrupt, manipulated market–and who regulates our corrupt regulators, why GS and JP Morgan of course ….And when the whole thing comes crashing down yet again, we will wonder why Glass Steagal can’t be reinstated instead of this Dodd Frank hodge-podge pseudo reforms riddled with loop holes. Question is: will eastern central banks join the Fed and EU with an unending spiral out currency debasements.
It is call a lack of self esteem, bb!
It can also be called “not adhering to the party line”!
bb, in all fairness Nadler had been dissing gold for a long time and being an analyst for kitco he couldn’t get it right until gold came down, his problem was his lack of vision.
A fair assessment. Someone considered Nadler a spoke person for bullion banks to talk down gold but I don’t think so. I would say such a person is Jeff Christian. Nadler is too narrowly focused and not be able to consider new factors coming into the gold sector such as emergence of China and dwindling divestment from old investors and central banks. He seems only focus on jewelry industry in North America and India. Since gold is a political metal so in a more unstable financial time, many new factors will dwarf the old ones.
Funny, when he was on there he was always saying gold going to come down. I stopped reading him, I didn’t want to hear it.
Al, I believe what sally is referring to is what I personally seen on bo’s website when he called a bottom in the summer and posted it on his site. He then removed it afterwards. I’m not sure if it was a hoax but i guarantee you i seen it with my own eyes. If thats the case he is not a genius but no stretch of the imagination. Nor is his accuracy 100%.
I realize ehat you are saying Glen! Believe me!
Ok, I’m back. We got Bo Polny who has made some pretty fantastic claims. I guess he has backed off the 2000 dollar gold before year end claim? He mentions that he uses cycles and tell when the price direction of gold will turn around. Ok, when will this happen? We got Gary Savage, who is pretty darn sharp saying gold will go to 1050 by the end of the year. Both of these guys are cycle guys. I hate to say it but one of these guys is going to be totally wrong. Will one of these analyst’s be banned from the program once we find out which one is the total idiot?
Bo called the bottom every day of Sept and swore to his 5 figure subscribers the bottoms in before summer ends… Al n Cory what are you guys thinkin lol
Just giving everyone a forum at this point, Jay!
Just FYI Glenn, Gary said not by end of year but very possible gold 1050 for a yearly cycle low (due spring / summer)
Glen….you are ABSOLUTELY RIGHT…that is why YOU GUYS…NEVER NEVER guess the short term gold market…HOWARD KATZ (the late)-God rest his soul)…very very bright guy – VERY – “The one-handed economist”……said…90% or the move up will happen in 10% of the total market time frame!!!!!….R U willing to try to time that….PHOOEY! GET IN; HANG ON AND SHUT UP…hahahaha..:) just kidding but you get the picture!!
All the best.
The Macro-fundamentals are in place and STRONGER than EVER…and getting stronger every day…that is all I and YOU need to know….:)
I doubt gold gets to 1050 this year. I think it’s probably more realistic to see a final bottom around 1050 next summer.
No.
Everyone should be given a forum. You can very easily disagree!
You have to have both sides of the coin to the story in order to make up your own mind on it. I like Gary a lot ane i really appriciate his input on the show. Gary called $1050 in Dec 2013 and never came, instead we got 1400 gold. Maybe he will get it this time but I do not think so. Bo has been SO convinced and NEVER backed down from his calls. He still calls huge upswing in gold by year end. He calculates priced based on fiboniaci so price may be off. However if he gets the swing wrong in wrong direction then I would say he will lose credibility. I like Bo a lot and appriciate his input on the show. So everyone has to chose their own direction.
I’m off the opinion that we are at 3 bottom and we will finish year higher rather the lower. Number i don’t know. $1050 by Summer of 2015 IMO is defnietly not happening. JMHO.
Stevie, your opinion comes very close to mine.
Sound good so me, Lawrence and Matthew can agree on few things hahaha
Big Al, you´ve sould look this:http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Reset/418/2013-09-06/Bank-Forecasts-For-Gold-Should-They-Be-Ignored
Daniela does some pretty good interviews. That’s why she has been at Kitco for such a long time. She also holds a Masters Degree; was a news anchor in Italy and speaks a number of languages. One sharp lady!
Peter,
Forgive me but this video is a year old. What is important about it? What am I missing?
Never mind Peter, I think I understand why you posted this link.
The think is Goldman Sachs said to clients to sell gold in april and than they , the bank, rise their gold positions by 600% in GLD.
Talking of higher highs lower low etc.
I could be off a bit Im getting these from the live gold price site.
Low in july about 1213, low dec 1201 oct about 1189
aug high 1397,march high 1385 june high 1341
looks to me like lower highs and lower lows.
I may not know much about charts but it looks to me we still in a downtrend.
The current low for gold looks very much like the March top, but inverted.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p25296215484&a=370523972
I’m guessing you are referring to the bullish divergence now at this bottom as compared to the bearish divergence in the MACD in March? Do you think this is the turnaround, Matthew? The triple bottom?
I was referring to the price candles, actually. Notice how the two trends both ended with the price poking through the Bollinger bands on back-to-back days and the presence of long “wicks” in March and “tails” now (indicating sellers and buyers, respectively, getting the upper hand).
I do think we are at a bottom. The question is, will it hold for weeks or months or is it THE bottom for the 3 year+ bear market we’ve been in?
Before I can put much confidence in even a short term bottom, I need to see gold close above 1224.
I just came across this bullish opinion from a guy who’s been bearish for a very long time.
For what it’s worth…
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1412691180.php
The future of gold is great
The short term view of gold is a disaster.
As capital flows drive tot eh US for safety form evil governments and economic collapse the USD will explode higher..
It is only logical that gold will go down and the trade pair for the USD>
FWIW a very wise trader once said to me… bear markets last 1/4 of the time of the bull market… They have to to destroy previous sentiment…
We are nearly or there IMHO. I will buy these crashes as I always do… I will leverage in in VERY small amounts….
GDXJ reversed at arc support this morning:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p56490880353&a=367344056&listNum=1
GDXJ later failed at arc support (and I bought a little more).
The explorers are still well above their December lows…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p91371020001&a=367344191
This one also failed at arc support based on intraday prices but held support based on closing prices.
More great news from Claude:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/claude-sets-another-quarterly-production-130000174.html
Sinclair is sticking to his statement as well but without giving time frame at this point. I think everyone knows tho that gold will trade at 1900. Question is when and that is what Bo is calling by year end or summer of 2015 latest. We’ll see. Sinclair has solid reputation and he backed Bo many times. I must admit Bo got Dollar direction WRONG already as dollar surged instead of crashing, unless it crashes by year end which is VERY POSSIBLE. Interesting times now folwkes
http://www.silverdoctors.com/legendary-gold-trader-this-will-drive-the-gold-trolls-wild-gold-will-trade-at-new-highs-above-1900/
Sinclair is the man………….been around the block, and his family was in the business , family tradition…….BEEN THERE , DONE THAT……….
Bo Polny latest update 10-6-2014
http://www.gold2020forecast.com/
Interesting interview. To me, gold is stepping up within its downtrend, still means that it is basically trading sideways to down in the last 18 months.
We had some recovery and then that had a breakdown in August 2014 as we broke the May 2014 low around $1240.
now we are at $1200 or so and have bounced this week, I see short term resistance here now at $1241 then $1270 nd gold needs to go over $1270 to avoid just hitting resistance wihint the downtrend that was hit at just oevr $1300 in June and July.
So gold is very slowly rolling to the upside but within a downtrend that has been in place since September 2012. Arguably we have already broken out of the downtrend that defined the moves from $1800 down to $1180 and we have some back down to test the top of that channel. The recent low in the 1180s last week was clse to the top of that channel. We could still come down to test this channel at even lower levels later because it is a falling channel.
If we fall back into the major downtrend channel, it has its bottom well under $800, at $770. The lows defing the channel were the $1520 lolw in May 2012 and the june 2013 low at $1180. There are various other ones you could draw but all are downtrends that is the bottom line. There has not been a definitive breakout of any of them I would say, not yet.
The chart is here:
http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/gold-still-in-grinding-downtrend.html
.
CORY DON’T ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYNPtDbykp0