Rick sums up his thoughts on the gold market
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Paul, and all,
I lightened my conventional stock exposure at the close yesterday, but not totally out. These daily fluctuations are a sign that bears fighting bulls, and I am afraid the bears will eventually win, for awhile.
I hate to draw conclusion on just one day, but Thursday’s conventional stock market is starting out very bad. So I wonder if we are beginning to get an “Aha” moment, whereby it is realized finally that there is something wrong with the economy and so the Fed cannot raise interest rates and must resume QE – the realization that the economy cannot reach so-called “escape velocity” and indeed cannot stand on its own. If all the conventional stock market can do is a 2-hour bounce out of those FOMC minutes, then that might be a sign.
Agree. ZIRP forever is here to stay and QE forever will come as well. Market will go up in the mid to long term. in the near term a correction is needed. The momentum is lost. Unless FED comes to support the stock market openly, the temporary top is likely. It looks like a topping pattern. However, can the gain in the conventional market offset inflation?
AGREE 100%…so maybe we get a 2008 moment and then Fed cries uncle and extends QE??? Gold and miners could crash before that happens
Although I believe if we see a crash miners will move down as well, but I don’t see them crashing hard like they did in 2008, simply because less people own them this time around. The people who’ve bought miners at higher prices have sold them already. The downside is minimal, IMO.
I agree. Both markets are transitioning here. I expect the miners to start to do very well as the conventional markets decline.
In 2008, everything, including the gold sector, was coming off of all-time highs as the stock market broke. This time, the gold space is coming off of extremely oversold lows and is hated while stocks are finishing a record cyclical bull and are loved. The events of ’08 has trained the masses to prepare for the last war. Big mistake.
I think that in within this time period you are correct Chris.
I think gold, not sure about miners, already crashed. It went down while conventional market rises and with QE3 in full speed. Should it also go down with the “end” of QE and crash together with conventional market? Logically it shouldn’t. If they can achieve this, we pretty much can also achieve money printing without inflation. It is the dream of the government. I strongly believe wealth is created by hard work not money printing.
I think gold, not sure about miners, already crashed. It went down while conventional market rises and with QE3 in full speed. Should it also go down with the “end” of QE and crash together with conventional market? Logically it shouldn’t. If they can achieve this, we pretty much can also achieve money printing without inflation. It is the dream of the government. I strongly believe wealth is created by hard work not money printing.
I also feel that “financial repression” will be the scheme for the next decade – money printing, inflation, captive buyers of government debt and capital control. Governments will try to inflate the debt away without having to declare bankruptcy. At same time they will get a bigger portion of the GDP. People will get a lot poorer in this process. It is important to freeze our wealth using PM before it is too late. If we can maintain the wealth acquired in the first world, it will worth a lot more once the country decays into a lower status.
Sorry for the repeat. This editor is too small.
Thanks Lawrence.
Al
As of 10:42, the conventional markets are extremely volatile. Down about $240 (Dow) right now after being down over $300!
bird….ok what do u think here? looks ugly like mini-2008 like to me…The equity markets and gold and everything else but the USD may collapse here…it is naive to think that the removal of QE3 will have no effects. Think we are seeing them now? Bird???
Where’s bird….when gold goes up…..
Shhhhhhhhhh! Gator the English have a saying ” Let sleeping Dogs lie”. Peace is what we all need.
Yes Machine Gun,
“Peace is what we all need”!
Peace and truth guys., Bless all, A
Sold my trading positions today for 3% loss.. Don’t like what iam seeing.
Can I assume that you mean conventional stocks? Thanks
Conventional market starts to be nervous. I hope a serious correction can come so I can get back in.
Derek,
I sold my miners for a loss.. Held on to long. Got in yesterday midway/higher level after the fed release. They went down hard today i was expecting it to go up higher but was forced to sell.. Currently the miners are now even lower so I have the opportunity to cost average in but i don’t like the feeling of what i see. Im now in the camp of 1180 test and getting broken. Changed my stance. Don’t have any idea as to timeline.
I was short, covered, went long. Gave back all gains today. Short again. This market is almost impossible to trade.
James,
how do you the rest of the month for gold/miners playing out. To much volatility currently
Unless you are clairvoyant, James!
Interesting, Glenfidish.
Maybe only 3% is a good thing, Glen. I don’t know!
exactly! we all have scars on that!
I just bought back some of the gdxj shares that I sold yesterday. It’s down more than 5% today.
Hope it works out for y
hope it works out for you matthew.. Im currently on sidelines again..
Thank you glenfidish, I hope it works out for you, too.
I thought three words this morning at 0830 EDT: Silver. Bear. Trap. Then the Dow Jones opened and if it’s red, then everything else must be red as well.
We will see if PMs have any strength into this stock selloff.
So far they have Mr. Pace!
Smelling like a big correction coming and gold stocks get hit too even if gold is strong. A possible crash with all the margin debt built up. I got out of margin a few days ago and now sold everything.
That Paul is what happened in October 1929, margin calls brought on forced selling, I can almost imagine the rattling sound of the ticker tape spewing out the sell orders long after the markets had closed on that fateful day.
Interesting what Louise Yamada has to say on financialsense.com on 4 October:
http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/louise-yamada/cyclical-correction-likely-stocks
Gold bull market over for the forseeable future she says.
She has a pretty good track record…
Gold spreads narrow:
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_GC.Z14_M19.E&t=l&a=0&w=1&v=dmax
Gold triple bottom:
http://thepatternsite.com/tb.html
Lease rates are rising after falling to zero, meaning a lot of gold leases sold into the market are no longer available:
Got out of the general market early today as it is looking too risky and may head to the 200 day. Russel has topped out and broken down as well as the NYSE to a lesser extent. Holding only gdx now.