Are we in for some major trouble in the markets?
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So far gold is forming normal cycles. The manipulation is just creating artificial resistance zones. The last one is probably going to be at $1240. They probably aren’t going to allow gold back above that level.
But so far the daily cycles are still occurring in the normal timing bands, they are just forming in left translated patterns now that the intermediate cycle is in the declining phase .
So do you worry that manipulators keep you on the sideline by quickly withdraw? They must have used a lot of physical. I case of silver, they have pushed the number of short contracts to historic high, which is consistent with the fact that they are lack of physical metal in silver.
If you are addressing that question to me Lawrence, I really don’t care about manipulators as I am not in for the short term!
Sorry Gary what day of the daily cycle low in gold are we currently in?
Im somewhat confused as to your count.
Thanks.
My two cents: Look at daily chart for the last year or so. Think I see a triple bottom…
As a corollary: looks like the dollar might be topping, and am thinking that’s what the Fed wants–they’re more worried deflation than inflation. Deflation helps main street, inflation helps Wall Street. Guess which side of the street the Fed favors.
Let me think about that bj!
Al, I’ll think for you. BJ; you are entirely correct. Deflation does help main street through the general lowering of all prices. Since you’re not seeing aggregate wages and median income increasing, deflation helps out the beleaguered middle class. Inflation, of course helps out those with a lot of leveraged assets and the banking industry. It helps those that leverage by paying off that leverage with cheaper dollars; it helps out the commercial banking industry through the spread on interest rates.
Since you are much smarter than I, Doc, I will defer!
Day 4.
Everything’s a manipulation conspiracy theory when life doesn’t agree with how we think it should be.
So now Gary’s calling for a bloodbath phase, right after calling for new highs. My head is spinning. Reminds me of wrong-way Gartman.
Bruce,
I don’t think you listened to the interview very closely. We need the bloodbath stage to set the market up for new highs.
This bull is not over and we are definitely going to make higher highs.
Gary,
I appreciate all your time…but, I dont follow the cycles…there are no cycles…..it is just your way of describing a bunch hooey-pooey…the GOLD market will turn emphatically up when GEO-politics/economics sqys it does..pretty much end of the story….
I think I will cycle over to The Liquor Control Board of Ontario and buy myself some Moosehead beer before it’s all gone, today is the last day of the sale. Ten years ago we had a strike at the Brewer’s retail outlets and I got there just in time, that is serious business when it happens to be summer.
I hear you Machine Gun!
Million dollar question, Lawrence.
I suppose manipulation in a market could just add an upslope or a downslope to the market but you could still have the cycles?
Looking forward to next week guys. Very interesting programme.
So next week could be a buying opportunity in both general stocks and the metals.
Not sure about general stocks, Bob.
MAY HAVE …..SHOULD HAVE……….COULD HAVE…………HAVE NOT, WILL NOT, NOT EVEN CLOSE…………..MINing as Doug Casey says ,,,is a lousy business.
Maybe, but his organization has made very big dollars in this “lousy business”!
I agree with both of you. Even mining is a lousy business, you still can make a lot of money. You just need to know the companies like Al yourself, know the management personally. As a hardworking outsider, it is very hard for me. However, we can focus on good companies and buy low and sell high, we should do OK.
TRAY to explain MANIPULATE MARKETS IS INSANITY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XV6KylpT74
Explication ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ivcc8yB_GtE
I detest that kind of noise!
AGREE ! AL US troops in africa fighting ebola ? What you think ?
The official comment is that the troops are there to help.
All Soldiers will have injections to go ! GUINEA PIGS !
In a long run, manipulation will lose, especially if they need physical metal. If we use the smashes as opportunity, we can do better.
Is Doc a buyer today?
James are you still short?
Matthew have you sold your positions you bought yesterday?
Bird are you alive? No joke intended..Want to hear your views.
JJ did you sell your positions you bought yesterday? Going into weekend?
I didn’t cover part of a SPY short today, but haven’t sold any GDXJ.
That should say “I DID” not “I didn’t…” Don’t know what happened there!
Matthew, where do you see gold going next week?
Chris im thinking up if he has not sold..
I should have been more specific. Any price targets he’s looking for since he’s long.
I think gold will finish next week higher. The picture is quietly getting better.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p70070457284&a=367587700
I agree Mathew. Primarily my agreement stems from the action this past week.
I don’t have targets for next week’s close, but I think resistance in the 1240 area will be tested.
HI Matthew… Thanks for the chart…. Just curious if I may ask, what happened during Apr 2014 that makes it not as bullish as the other green vertical line?
Thanks Matthew for your timely answer ๐
cheers
Hey Matthew, How’s it going?
I posted here about three or four weeks ago(?) that I was short the SPY with the 198.50 October puts and that I would add the 200 put if SP500 pushed back over 2000. I closed all positions around 10:45 a.m. EST as I was expecting a bounce….oh well. I’ll look to re-enter short with December or January puts if we happen to bounce a good 38% to 50% retrace, depending on the signals. Hope you are profitable!
Sorry, “closed all positions TODAY around 10:45 a.m. EST” …clarity..duh!
Hi Mark, as of 3:50 pm, I’m virtually out of my SPY shorts. I feel a little uncomfortable about it, so maybe it will prove to have been the right move. ๐
Will also look to re-enter on better terms.
Congrats! Nothing like profits.
I’m thinking we are near the end of an expanding leading diagonal in both the DOW and the SPX. Might even be a large “C” wave of an expanded flat that is terminating into an expanding ending diagonal. Either way, there should be a decent rally once this structure terminates (if it hasn’t already). I’ll assess an entry point to short again if a bounce proves to have corrective structures versus impulsive structures. I will also play the bounce to the long side but with less capital on the trade.
have a good weekend
Good stuff, Mark.
Have a good weekend!
You have better timing than me. I was out of the market for 7 months now but don’t dare to short.
I mean conventional market.
Evening Lawrence,
My timing was both a combination of using technical analysis which A LOT of people (sadly) on this site seem to poo-poo and good old fashion LUCK. But you have to be in to win and you have to know your EXIT BEFORE you enter. Risk management is key and knowing the risk/reward ratio is what helps me determine my entry.
My first SPY short from September 4th, got stopped out for about 7% profit when the SP500 reversed on September 16th and began pushing to new highs. I entered my second SPY short when the SPX was at 2018.48, as that was a projected target zone based on fibonacci extensions. I went long the monthly NOV 2014 SPY 200 put strike. I would have closed that position had the SP500 gone over 2025. I stepped out today because the technical picture is suggesting a potential bounce coming. Could be wrong in stepping out but I am very happy with it because my price targets for taking profits were hit.
I have never poo-pooed technicals.
And I am getting sick and tired of simply not understanding what everyone is talking about.
I may never be an expert Mr. Alan, but I will learn it starting right now!
Glen, not yet——probably will be a buyer starting next week—–that is the PM area. I’m taking it a week at a time based on technicals I’m following. I believe we’re getting very close.
i went short today in gld
James,
Thanks for your timely answer. So far two different views from two different titans :).
Bird where are you?
JJ come out, come out wherever you are.
Doc porfavor responde ๐
if YOU trade based on opinions you should not be trading, I never, never, ever trade based on what anyone else does I trade off price and the indicators I use, if one can’t read a chart you should NOT be trading your own portfolio
๐ Smart! A lesson I had to learn myself…the HARD way.
Me too Mark Alan!
JJ,,
No need to be rude.. This is a forum where people exchange opinions and ideas. It does not mean that I or anyone else for that matter takes everyone’s word literally.
In the future I will not ask you anymore.
And by the way getting a reading from investors here and all around does establish a certain sentiment which can’t be discarded.
Enjoy live a little..
You are absolutely correct Glenfidish!
I really don’t take his remark to be rude. Just a simple truth. And, I am pretty sure that jj was using the familial “you”.
I only come across as rude because its not what you want to hear…think about it nobody here is going to move a chart longer than 5 minutes so who cares what they are selling or buying, opinions are useless the sooner you understand that the better investor you’ll be and that’s not just you its everyone including me!
Getting a reading from investors here is the worst place to get a reading as 90% here are long term buy and hold forever investors….Matthew trades from the long side only but at least he trades and I’ve never seen him say please XYZ respond to my question ….I’m a 100% trader and when the charts tell me so I make money both long and short
yah right Matt no opinion seeking here obviously his trading is all based off the chart, lol
On October 10, 2014 at 10:46 am,
glenfidish says:
Is Doc a buyer today?
James are you still short?
Matthew have you sold your positions you bought yesterday?
Bird are you alive? No joke intended..Want to hear your views.
JJ did you sell your positions you bought yesterday? Going into weekend?
posters here are far too sensitive….omg!
JJ, it doesn’t matter if anyone here moves the market. Sentiment rules the short term and it can be useful or at least interesting to hear what a handful of active traders are doing even if you go purely on your signals.
Btw, I’ve been trading the short side of SPY since August and am short now. But, yes, it has been a long time since I’ve been short the miners (aside from protective puts here and there).
Really Matthew, collectively the opinions here even if they all bought SLW at once would be forgotten in a matter of minutes….I don’t short bull markets I buy the dips when the indicators suggest so…its been the perfect trade since Sept 2011 in US equities…..just as every top on the pm’s charts since then has suggested more gains from the short side as lower highs continue.
Sorry I have no time for posters who state this is going to happen because of this and every time it doesn’t they curl up and seek opinions from the same guys who have been wrong for years…..well its plain to see Birdman gave up here and so have I
what a joke!
Just remember “original”, a quitter never wins!
Just think, jj, two months ago you actually got offended when I suggested that you think your way is the only way. Funny.
You’re obviously not aware that there is a such thing as investing and that real people actually do it. It’s fine that you buy ticker symbols not companies and care about momentum not value. You’d be terrible at speculating in micro cap miners with your gameboy approach.
Not sure I agree about the chart, but the rest makes absolute sense to me.
Glen, I don’t know why anyone would assume that you are trading based on opinions. That’s the last conclusion I would come to based on your questions.
Matthew,
I try and keep the peace as much as possible and then one get’s insulted. It is what it is. I just don’t get why people come here anyways.
Happy trading and thanks for sharing your views with the viewers right or wrong..
Keep sharing your views, glen, I’m certain that more readers are interested in them than not.
ditto…..sharing is caring……………….
Ha ha, leave it to J!
Matthew,
Thanks for the kind words. Some people need to seriously look at themselves in the mirror and pinch themselves. I rather be rich, down to earth, genuine and humble then rich, ignorant and lonely.
Of course you are correct Matthew!
glenfidish like Matthew you’re a decent guy! Me, I just learn and benefit from those who are civil. As Al keeps reminding us civility costs nothing.
You’re more than a decent guy yourself, Andrew!
Matthew,
I am pretty sure that Glenfidish does not trade based on unqualified opinions.
STRANGE …… OIL $85.71 & DOLLAR ……… 85.89
IN Europe we pay the same for GAS and OIL and GOLD in EURO’S SO DIS IS ONLY MANIPULATION for USA elections ! SHEEPELe follow !
franky…….can you get me an oz. of gold for $85 , I’ll take all you can send……..and I will pay your gas bill for a year………………………….
I get you a Vaccination for $85 ! Ebola !
The price of oil is going down and your dollar is way up but have you seen any relief at the pumps, or just a little so you don’t think your being manipulated.
No me the European population YES ! 1 KG GOLD STILL 30.000 to 31.000 !
Slight relief, Machine Gun. The gas pump in the U.S. is definitely a lagging indicator!
Nasdaq is headed to and below the 200 day like the other indexes. S&P is headed to the 200 day at least.
Oil was the advance warning indicator for the whole market. Until it bottoms which could be the 70 to 80 area all the markets will remain weak. Gold’s gains were capped by the authorities since the general market remains weak.
Whatever oil does, gold is set to outperform it for a long time. Gold is up more than 23% when priced in oil just since the June low. This is very good news for the miners.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$WTIC&p=M&st=1981-09-07&en=today&id=p61642187752&a=366698528
Great, GREAT STUFF Matthew!!
Nasdaq starting to fall hard and below the 200 day now. Likely headed much lower dragging the dow & s&p below the 200 day. Intel down 4.8% is a bad sign. Margin calls will bring down all stocks including the miners.
Maybe. After years of huge declines in what has been one of the worst bear markets for the miners, how many Nasdaq fans do you think own any miners to dump if they get a margin call? The miners were at a major high before the plunge of 2008 but were at a major low when the markets topped in 2000. As one might expect, they crashed in ’08 but flew higher as the markets fell in 2000.
My portfolio of miners is up today despite GDXJ being down nearly 2%.
You are right. However, I am sure general market correction will affect miners but it should not be as severe as general stocks. I am thinking selling ETF and buy miners in the next couple of weeks. Just want to wait for the avalanche to get over first. Gold/XAU is over 15 so the stock is way oversold than gold. Can it go to 17?
I like to use the HUI instead of the XAU because it offers the best representation of unhedged GOLD miners. Gold/HUI has not broken above its December 2013 high. Gold/GDM and Gold/GDX have also not taken out their Dec. highs.
GDX:GLD
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX:GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51092670314
I would bet you are correct, Paul L.
Just covered more SPY shorts.
See comment above ๐
Went into gdx again today and got out with minor gains. 100% cash since yesterday early morning when I felt a crash coming. Taken some massive gains the past few months in nasdaq stocks.
Al,
About Nenner, he’s a cycles guy from GS. Seems very smart, but he’s solely focused on cycles.
In contrast, while Gary’s strategic tool is cycles, he also looks at other stuff. Also I think that Gary’s view on cycles is more realistic – i.e. he’s flexible, and fast enough to see it in most cases on day 1 or sometimes 2.
Another side note on Nenner is that he was recently calling strong BUY’s for Ag – like MOS, POT and MON – to go way up, but instead they are way down.
Net is, Gary is a FAR better trader, in my eyes. FAR BETTER.
Thanks Bill,
On a side note, I would bet that you eat better sushi that we do over here!
Not since Fukushima.
I assume we are talking about sushi.
Lawrence, some food for though here that might help you about cycles – they are not regular – there’s quite a bit of variation, BUT not to the point that they become ineffective (is what I see and think right now).
Proof is that Gary caught GDX’s rise from Jan – Mar, and again from June – Jul/Aug, using cycles. And, he’s pretty much been out at all other times. I don’t know how he does it. Perhaps he has a 6th sense on cycles that gives him the ability to make extremely accurate calls, but that can’t be easily communicated to common folk like me.
But the fact is, Gary is very as a trader – VERY successful – and his primary weapon is cycles.
I myself am still trying to find the brains and courage to follow him by being a sub. It’s hard for me to follow anyone on anything unless I agree to it. But I’m trying to get past that, as the bottom line to me is results.
I don’t understand gravity or light, but I use them both every day.
What is that loser Gary doing now? Another whipsaw I see. Ask him about his USO and QQQ Calls purchased on September 25th. What a loser this guy is and yet you still listen to him?
That moron can make a portfolio disappear faster that a Malaysian airliner.
Bill – Follow Gary and perish. The guy has blown up more subs than you could ever imagine.
Ask Gary for his performance numbers. Any pro would be happy to share their results.
Gary is a big time loser. Stay away. You’re welcome.
We are having a feast here this weekend,with lots of Turkey, sauerkraut, limburger cheese, radishes, brussel sprouts, mashed potatoes with gravy, and a couple of hundred tall tins of Moosehead. My sons like their beer.
A couple of hundred Machine Gun?
You are putting even the Korelin family to shame!
Gary keeps saying that the manipulation is serious in gold but still use his cycle theory to predict the price. How does he know manipulators follow the cycles? I just don’t get it. If I am manipulator and I want to get the price down, I will make the price movement totally random. Due to the amount of money JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are wielding, they should be able to move the price a few hundred dollars at once without a problem so the movement of the cycle is totally burried.