Pundit's Perspectives – Tue 21 Oct, 2014

Market Commentary from Peter Grandich

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Al KorelinPeter Grandich

  1. On October 21, 2014 at 12:06 pm,
    Fran MacDonald says:
  2. On October 21, 2014 at 12:26 pm,
    Birdman says:

    If gold breaks through 1300 I will be pretty surprised. I seriously doubt that’s going to happen as the current rally will burn itself out before then and gold will start heading lower again. As far as the markets go…..well I guess Peter and I won’t see eye to eye on that count either because there is plenty of life left once this corrective period is finished in November. We will get our Santa Claus rally by my take of things.

    • On October 21, 2014 at 2:31 pm,
      J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

      Can you buy a gold coin for less than $1300……..?

      • On October 21, 2014 at 2:53 pm,
        JMiller says:

        Yes you can currently. 1 oz Maple Leafs and Krugerrands for example.


        American Eagles only if you find a dealer having them on sale.

        • On October 21, 2014 at 2:59 pm,
          J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

          22k and 24 k…………is the diff………..

          • On October 21, 2014 at 3:01 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            Krugs…….have been selling for less, as long as I can remember…….

          • On October 21, 2014 at 3:23 pm,
            JMiller says:


            Not quite sure what you mean “22k and 24 k…………is the diff”?

            Maple Leafs are 24k and sell for less than American Eagles which are only 22k. A few dealers are selling American Buffalos which are 24k for the same price or less than the American Eagles.

          • On October 21, 2014 at 3:53 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            That is true……….What is the freight charge from the different locations….
            Random selection, random question, random answer . Add the two charges up and see if the price is below $1300

          • On October 21, 2014 at 5:24 pm,
            JMiller says:


            You can get 1 oz Maple Leafs and Krugerrands from several reputable online dealers for less than $1300 with free shipping.

          • On October 21, 2014 at 6:08 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            that is really good news………….I like free…………….thanks……..

          • On October 21, 2014 at 6:09 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            I do like Maples………..but not Krugs………….

  3. On October 21, 2014 at 12:27 pm,
    James (the lesser) says:

    You say the markets are Ignoring the IBM, McDonald’s and Cola Cola news.
    IBM down, Apple up
    McDonald down, Chipotle up
    Coca Cola down, Monster up

    Once again it’s that principle of ever changing cycles at work!

    • On October 21, 2014 at 12:47 pm,
      Birdman says:

      Great point James. If fundamentals mattered then the stock market would have crashed a long, long time ago already. There is no good reason for stocks to tank for long though when we consider the amount of liquidity that has already been pumped into the system in the past.

      And no matter how tiresome it is starting to sound there is that little issue of capital flows that creates a huge support regardless of all the good reasons people think stocks should take a big belly flop.

      A high market in other words is up against a tidal wave of past money creation that is not being invested productively in the economy or used for capital investment but is instead sloshing about for the best opportunities in a storm.

      Meanwhile, month after month the automatic contributions to pension plans just keep pouring in even as capital flight is taking place from the developing and emerging markets and flowing into the better opportunities offered by US equities and bonds (safety is relative term of course!).

      I would not however go so far as to suggest this time is different. It is not. We are living under a regime of interventions though that will certainly stretch this market far beyond what would ordinarily be expected.

      At such times we can probably throw out the book on fundamentals and try instead to glean insights into the crowd thinking of the investment community and the monolithic movements of money that are at source behind this equity price growth.

      • On October 21, 2014 at 1:25 pm,
        Birdman says:

        Meanwhile, both corn and wheat look ready to start heading down again. That is the see-saw between commods and equities. Sugar may have peaked near 17 and copper continues to be in it downward trending channel that has been in play since the start of July.

        Even crude is giving me some doubt as it consolidates above 80 bucks and it may be preparing for a continuation of its declines although I cannot call it yet. In other words, some of the commodity sector will again weaken as stocks rise.

        I expect (very strong belief) both gold and silver will follow the trend down once this brief current rising cycle has terminated near 1280. So that is what I am watching now.

        Despite the many usual voices calling for a resumption of the long dead bull market in precious metals I remain firmly on the side that expects further declines before their trial by fire is over.

        Their is just no fireworks left in this market anymore. Sentiment is dead on arrival. Even the bulls are now reluctant to step in as they instead monitor for signs of a real bottom while long suffering investors who held too long attempt to sell rallies and get the hell out.

        There seems to be a popular myth amongst the hardened gold crowd that we have already seen capitulation and hit the final lows. Ha!! That is just too damned funny for words.

        Apparently they do not know well what the word “despair and disgust” really mean.

        Just the idea that there are hundreds of thousands of closet gold-bugs sitting on their buy buttons and getting ready for a new gold launch higher (any old day now) is enough to make me believe this ain’t over by a long shot yet.

        What we want to see is that the majority have cashed out their positions and stopped following this market altogether. When I hear of guys dumping gold cheap I will know we are getting to the moment of realization that sets in after a multi-year slog where a favoured investment just does not perform as widely believed.

        Too bad for gold. It still has too many devotees and adherents to have experienced that moment of true despair that signals the bottom has arrived. The New Year should disappoint as will most of 2015. First we need to see gold break down through support on a fourth attempt at 1180 for a lot of the suffering bulls to start cashing out in disgust and divorcing themselves for gold once and for all.

        Most of them will never return again.

        • On October 21, 2014 at 1:39 pm,
          irishtony says:

          Bird….Stop knocking gold…..or I will have to start knocking your beloved US dollar…
          BTW….Buy some silver , it will make you feel better.

          • On October 21, 2014 at 1:52 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Actually I did Tony. But not for me. I picked up gifts for my wife and family. All beautiful stuff in Sterling or better and it was priced to sell. Hey, who says I don’t love a deal? When silver hits 15 bucks I will start thinking about buying some coins again. But you know what?…..I have been through this enough times already and just don’t get excited by bags of junk silver or mint coins anymore. Been there and done that. These days if I were to be a buyer of physical again it would be antiquities, rare coins, historical stuff or just good quality jewelry. I mean stuff that I would appreciate and enjoy no matter what prices do. The whole hoarding of lumps of metals is such a bore to me nowadays so I won’t go back there again. There is much more money to be made in paper trades anyway!

          • On October 21, 2014 at 2:06 pm,
            bb says:

            You could still be right Bird about gold going to 968? was it?
            The chart I look at still shows gold heading down.
            Agree with you about “junk” silver too, as far as Im concerned it doesn’t compare to .999 stuff.
            I still find it odd tho that gold can be heading so low with so much big buying happening.
            There must be oodles available yet.

          • On October 21, 2014 at 2:16 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            I think a good Rolex GOLD President 18 k…..looks great on the wrist…..KIND of heavy though to wear every day, plus it is rough on the cuffs .

          • On October 21, 2014 at 3:57 pm,
            Big Al says:

            I had a great Rolex Gold President that a friend of mine got me in Malaysia. And you know, I only had to pay $5k for it. What a deal until the paint started to chip!

          • On October 21, 2014 at 2:30 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Now your talking Jerry. See I can get on board that kind of gold buying. Now that you mention it I recall I still have a antique pocket watch cast in Sterling. A real beauty and old as the hills. It’s kicking around here somewhere but I can’t really recall where I last saw it. Maybe its time to go on the hunt and fire it up again.

          • On October 21, 2014 at 2:37 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            Now that is what I call DIVERIFICATION………..wear and enjoy a lifetime of benefits, who needs paper……………….

          • On October 21, 2014 at 2:39 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            correction on spelling………but, you get the point……

          • On October 21, 2014 at 2:43 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Yup. There is really cool stuff the be found. I always wanted a gold pen for example. I mean solid gold, not the plated junk. I still have an antique sterling dinner set. Not sure how many ounces it is but the set was more than a hundred pieces. I kept that because I really loved it even though I dumped all the coins and junk bags. Have a set of CPR cream and sugar that look nice on the table too. So…well, I guess I am still in metals but its only the pieces I honestly enjoy and that are actually practical at the same time. Like Cuff Links!

          • On October 21, 2014 at 4:07 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            Al, you should have known better………never buy anything Asian……..

          • On October 21, 2014 at 4:10 pm,
            Big Al says:

            I was guaranteed that it was not and that it was genuine. My friend also bought ALL the wine that night! (Prior to me buying the watch!)

          • On October 21, 2014 at 4:09 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            AL……I’ll rent you my Pres , if you every want to look important………..

          • On October 21, 2014 at 4:10 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            I got a matching set…..his and hers……….that will cost you double……

          • On October 23, 2014 at 3:55 pm,
            Bobby says:

            Got my diamond studded Rolex in mexico for $20.00′ its still ticking.

          • On October 23, 2014 at 6:40 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Then it is a darn poor imitation because Rolex watches don’t tick!

        • On October 21, 2014 at 3:06 pm,
          J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

          Writing instruments are a tough one…………..just trying to keep them functioning is a challenge. I kind of like those real ink, fountain pens.

        • On October 21, 2014 at 3:48 pm,
          Big Al says:

          You still owe me a bottle of wine!

          • On October 21, 2014 at 4:03 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:


          • On October 21, 2014 at 5:54 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Talking to me?

          • On October 23, 2014 at 3:58 pm,
            Bobby says:

            Al, I think you should send me another bottle, now that you got me addicted.

          • On October 23, 2014 at 6:41 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Found a great wine for under ten bucks. It is called Columbia Crest Grand Estates – Golden. Unbelievable!

  4. On October 21, 2014 at 12:56 pm,
    irishtony says:

    Nice to see McDs taking a dunking….They only made huge profits by selling S$£t to people at low costs….They are now selling the same S£$t at higher prices to the muppets , but the muppets have now made it clear they don’t mind eating S£$t , but not at a premium price……….after all pink slime is not expensive to manufacture.

    • On October 21, 2014 at 1:35 pm,
      Birdman says:

      Tony…..I love their food. Call me nuts but I actually had a dream about a Sausage Egg McMuffin one night. It’s been a long time since I had my last Big Mac and Fries too. They don’t have many restaurants in Africa. I have tried making my own but it just never tastes the same. I hear there is cardboard in the meat……maybe I will add some if that’s what it takes to get the taste right!

      Admit it man…..you love that food too. If only secretly.

      • On October 21, 2014 at 1:47 pm,
        irishtony says:

        Bird….I never touch the stuff….or KFC…or donor kebabs….I try to avoid processed foods……..lets face it a lot fast food is rubbish.

        • On October 21, 2014 at 1:55 pm,
          Birdman says:

          I avoid processed foods too. If you read my posts you already know we grow and process almost all our own foods from garden to scratch to the pot. Hell, we make our own cheeses these days. But I will admit a weakness for MacDonald’s. Add KFC to the list too. Best fried chicken ever!

          • On October 21, 2014 at 2:04 pm,
            irishtony says:

            Bird…Thanks for your replies.

          • On October 21, 2014 at 3:55 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Please Mr. Irish, don’t egg him on. (Just bit my tongue again!)

          • On October 21, 2014 at 2:33 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Lunch is on me if I am ever out your way, Tony. We’ll get the combos with fries. Just don’t tell my wife. I am on restricted salt these days but I just say screw it and give in to weakness once in awhile. Mmmmm…..Big Macs!!

          • On October 21, 2014 at 3:52 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Best fried chicken ever?

          • On October 21, 2014 at 6:00 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Maybe I have a problem Al but I really like that chicken. If I am in Nairobi its my first stop. The taxi driver will say “which hotel” and I am like, No, man, take me to KFC”! ….it can”t be just me. There is always a huge lineup and no place to sit down.

          • On October 23, 2014 at 4:01 pm,
            Bobby says:

            Bird, I will try some of your pot, I like organic.

        • On October 21, 2014 at 3:51 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Fast food is rubbish? Common man!

          Oh well, I am going to make some lunch. (Hagys!)

      • On October 21, 2014 at 2:03 pm,
        J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

        ………….You need to see the MCD. .film…..”SUPERSIZE ME”
        Many years ago, they use to put worms as a substitute for hamburger meat……I once had a lady who’s husband worked in flavors at McD’s…..some great info was shared, I have never been back to MCD. since. Twenty years or more.

        • On October 21, 2014 at 2:07 pm,
          irishtony says:

          Jerry…..Nothing wrong with worms….now that pink slime , well….

          • On October 21, 2014 at 2:21 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            Irish……..I can think of other items in which to get my protein………

          • On October 21, 2014 at 2:46 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Is there protein in beer? Seriously…there should be protein in beer.

          • On October 21, 2014 at 4:06 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Actually a little known fact is that Guinness is a “food group”.

          • On October 21, 2014 at 3:09 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            that is a good question………………..

          • On October 21, 2014 at 6:02 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Whew, thanks for that Al. Now I can stop feeling guilty about missing dinner.

      • On October 21, 2014 at 2:14 pm,
        Wayne says:

        I used to work at McDonald’s. Will never forget seeing the packages of beef that said, “Grade D but edible.” Yum.

        • On October 21, 2014 at 2:17 pm,
          J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

          good one Wayne

          • On October 21, 2014 at 2:21 pm,
            irishtony says:

            Wayne….D….You mean the grade is that high……Well I never.

        • On October 21, 2014 at 2:34 pm,
          Skeeta says:

          Funny stuff guys !

    • On October 21, 2014 at 3:45 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Common Mr. Irish,

      When is the last time you had a gourmet burger. I understand you can now order your burger rare, medium or well. I also understand that it now has table service to go with the white table cloths.

      Also served is fine red wine and fine white wine for those sloths who drink white wine with their beef.

      Did I say sloths? I guess I was remembering the last time I was in one of these restaurants. (About three years ago when Kathy’s brother insisted on going there. I had a salad and still got sick!

  5. On October 21, 2014 at 1:00 pm,
    Dave says:

    Seriously, I would avoid listening to this analyst. Why? Because his assistant jojo …who no longer works there was unbelievably rude. I have the emails to prove it. He claims to be in love with Christ, and yet his assistant, treated some of the followers with downright contempt.

    I knew Peter was in trouble when he was making very public bets with Nadler for 1 million plus.

    I knew his EGO (Edging God Out) had gotten the best of him. Same with Sinclair, both so egotistical. Not even willing to consider they can be wrong.

    Peter has permanently damaged himself.

    • On October 21, 2014 at 3:46 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Can’t agree with you Dave.

  6. On October 21, 2014 at 1:04 pm,
    sally says:


    • On October 21, 2014 at 3:46 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Was it low again Sally. Can you increase the volume on your device?

    • On October 21, 2014 at 7:41 pm,
      Brian says:

      Sally ~ Click on the tallest of the five bars (located on the far-left side of the audio player) and volume will increase. Maybe even Al doesn’t know this one 😉

  7. On October 21, 2014 at 2:26 pm,
    Ian in the uk says:

    2 comments – 1. Dow now on slope of hope. 2. Gold now on wall of worry.
    Mark my words.

    • On October 21, 2014 at 4:06 pm,
      J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

      Sounds like good words to hold to………….

  8. On October 21, 2014 at 2:52 pm,
    Birdman says:

    Dollar has bottomed on the hourly chart and Euro has peaked. It made six tries at 128.50 and failed to break out so down she goes….and up goes the buck. Bad news for gold tomorrow.

    • On October 22, 2014 at 6:46 am,
      Birdman says:

      That worked out very nicely so far. The dollar did indeed bounce almost a penny since I wrote the above comment yesterday while both gold and silver have gone negative this morning.

      The Euro meanwhile had an even bigger move down. Looking at the dollar on the hourly there is pretty firm support near 84.76 which tells me this dollar move has lots of legs yet. silver is looking like it is going to retest the October lows at a minimum….off 30 cents this morning already.

  9. On October 21, 2014 at 2:57 pm,
    Birdman says:

    And the long dated is definitely on a sell. So is the 10 year.Who says trading isn’t fun.

  10. On October 21, 2014 at 3:21 pm,
    Gary says:

    No one ever believes when we make one of these intermediate cycle lows. It doesn’t matter whether it’s in stocks, oil, gold or currencies everyone is on the wrong side of the market and firmly entrenched in their bias. They find or manufacture reasons, real or imaginary, to doubt the rally.

    The big moves occur from the bottom to about 12-15 days. This is when big institutional money piles into the market as they recognize the intermediate bottom. They are scrambling to catch the big initial move. Meanwhile the perma bears and retail traders sit on the sidelines while the move passes them by, or even worse they try to short the move.

    12-15 days is just the beginning, the the rally usually continues for 15-20 weeks on average.

    Is the government in this market propping it up? Of course they are. All the more reason to take part. Like I keep saying: The Fed has your back. And they will continue to have your back until this gets away from them and becomes a huge bubble/parabola. At some point the parabola pops. But it doesn’t make sense to look for the top before we even get the parabola phase.

  11. On October 21, 2014 at 4:06 pm,
    James (the lesser) says:

    The best fried chicken ever is Hatties in Saratoga Springs. Nothing comes close.

  12. On October 21, 2014 at 4:19 pm,
    James (the lesser) says:

    Gary actually it is you that is on the wrong side.

    The stock market has gone up 9 out of 10 years.

    It doesn’t take any brilliance to see that.

    Like all markets, bull and bear, nothing goes straight up or straight down.

    The last few days rally was clearly overdue and perfectly normal.

    You keep patting yourself on the back for telling everyone to be in stocks as if that is such a gutsy call. It is the obvious call.

    When your predictions dont pan out you blame manipulation or change your cycle.

    When the parabola pops as,you say you will be left behind because you are only a trend follower

    • On October 21, 2014 at 4:50 pm,
      Gary says:

      Actually I’m on the right side of the market as I called the bottom on Wednesday right here on Al’s show and since then the market has rallied almost 7%. The Nasdaq (where I’m focusing my trading) is up almost 7.5%.

      Just admit it. I made a nice call at the very bottom while virtually every other analyst was bearish. Trust me it won’t hurt that bad.

      All of us make wrong calls, and quite often. My cycles system just happens to be pretty good at spotting bottoms. Usually I’m not very good at spotting tops. Although it has gotten sort of easy in the metals lately. One just watches for a clear manipulation event to break the rally. It’s how I’ve spotted the last three intermediate tops almost perfectly.

      I still think Nasdaq 5100 before we have any real chance for a final top in the stock market. I just don’t see the buying pressure exhausting before that. Plus I think big money will push the market above that level to convince retail traders we have a breakout and then they will dump their shares onto the dumb money. It’s how markets top (see the market top in 2007 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=16&mn=6&dy=0&id=p42483617552&a=372501137&listNum=1 ). So we really have to go above 5100 for big money to employ their exit strategy.

      • On October 21, 2014 at 6:14 pm,
        Birdman says:

        Gary, I noticed. Just so happens it coincided with my own call for the market to reverse and rise and that was indeed at a time when most people had turned quite negative and were starting to believe that we had a crash on our hands.

        I don’t get why nobody wants to acknowledge when another guy gets it right. Your insistence was in pretty stark contrast to everyone else on the board that day. I will gladly give you credit for nailing it.

        But as Chris noted yesterday, nobody recalls your good work and they never forgive your mistakes either. Just human nature I suppose.

      • On October 21, 2014 at 6:33 pm,
        J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

        I do not see a Nasdaq 5100,,,,dumb money lost all their dumb money in 2000, a repeat is not going to happen….That story has already be played out…..The MANIA of Nasdaq, is to recent , and is still on many peoples minds.,,,,,,JMHO…………..

        • On October 21, 2014 at 6:35 pm,
          J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

          pLUS , Maria B….has departed CNBC…..SQUACK………

  13. On October 21, 2014 at 4:25 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    It was nice to hear from Peter Grandich again, he along with Jim Dines, Bob Moriarty, are very excellent predictors of the physical gold market. Right now that is where the action needs to be and I can feel it in my bones.

  14. On October 21, 2014 at 4:48 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    We live in a time where when you go out to buy anything they separate goods and services into divisions, if you have money and like cheap designer products that is one category. If you like quality and no Ralph Lauren products that is high end. If you want a deal but you aren’t interested in logos and designer labels it will require a shrewd eye and a lot of work. I prefer the days when everything was found in one spot and you only bought according to your budget.

  15. On October 21, 2014 at 5:16 pm,
    James (the lesser) says:

    “Virtually ever other analyst was bearish”
    What on earth are you talking about
    Last week CNBC paraded one analyst after another on who were bullish.
    The Bulls outnumbered the Bears at least 4 to 1

    • On October 21, 2014 at 6:11 pm,
      Dick Tracy says:

      Gary, the bottom hasn’t been reached, traders who had sold out higher up are coming back into the market again with new purchases, in the hope that the bottom has been reached. They think the time to buy is when things look blackest but these days you and many others are basing their predictions on a predictable set of circumstances which is not the case now.

    • On October 22, 2014 at 6:56 am,
      Birdman says:

      You watch CNBC?

      James, nobody watches CNBC anymore. Even Wall Street is hooked on ZeroHedge.

      CNBC ratings drop to 21 year lows.

  16. On October 21, 2014 at 6:34 pm,
    Dai Uy says:

    AL: You’re not the only one taken in Asia(Macau). Many years ago I purchased gold rings with nice jade for my 2 kids. Everything was fine until their little fingers turned green!

  17. On October 21, 2014 at 7:02 pm,
    mj12 says:

    Gary nailed the low last week. PERIOD. He has been “spot on” with all his calls since I started following him in June. Damn……he is good with his cycles……and very clear to the public when he reverses. Sometimes I wonder if traders/investors have “ears” to hear.
    Thank you Gary for keeping us in the loop. Much appreciated.

  18. On October 21, 2014 at 7:12 pm,
    James (the lesser) says:

    Mm you have only been here since June, stick around
    Gary called for $1000 gold, that never happened.
    He also changed his tune on the big picture in stocks

    • On October 21, 2014 at 7:21 pm,
      Birdman says:

      Give it time James. Sheesh, you are so impatient. Of course we will see sub 1000 gold.

      • On October 21, 2014 at 8:29 pm,
        Brian says:

        still posting at 3:21 am? Really?

        • On October 22, 2014 at 2:11 am,
          Skeeta says:

          The early bird gets the worm Brian,

          …..whilst most of the flock go hungry.

          • On October 22, 2014 at 3:31 am,
            Birdman says:

            Oops, sorry. Your comment was for Gary. Hey Gary, don’t you sleep man!!

        • On October 22, 2014 at 3:29 am,
          Birdman says:

          Brian, my home is in Africa. My day is your night. Typically I leave my posts when all the rest of you are sleeping soundly (or out getting loaded in the late-night clubs!). But I am up with the bats and the vampires watching the currency markets and what’s happening in Asia.