Wednesday and The Doctor Is In
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Gotta tell you, The Greater, we try to be very careful so we, first of all. don’t lead anyone astray and, secondly, don’t have to rationalize any past comments!
James, didn’t you just call the bottom day before yesterday?
He called the bottom a week ago.. I believe he went long bird. As of today he is in the red unless he sold but he didnt comment on that. It was a few days ago skeeta and someone else told james that was not a good trade.
Yup, I recall that. Thought it was an early call but then again, James is a betting man and he does have good instincts for handicapping. We will know soon enough as the miners are almost right back at their support levels.
Gary, for one, is really concerned as you can hear!
IIRC James called approx $1218 ? a bottom.
Apologies if the figure is wrong James.
I said I believed the gold price would fall lower than that to low 900’s at best…..if not even lower.
That probably makes me the biggest bear on this site ?
At present, don’t forget that James’ call is far, far closer than mine.
Only time will tell who is correct, he’s betting he is, I’m betting I am as I believe we are in for a difficult 9 months or so for gold.
Ultimately if James is correct, I will send him a nice bottle of red or white wine from one of the many local wineries where I live nearby in the Yarra Vally, Australia as a congratulations of a good call.
Cheers.
Some great wines from your country Skeeta.
Gary agrees completely with you. Listen to today’s editorial with him which I will post within the next 1/2 hour or so.
And how many bottoms has Al called?
I have said that I never thought that I would see gold go below, I believe it was $1325. I also have said in interviews recently that I don’t see it going anywhere near the $960 to $1140 range.
Bobby you should know as I have sent you two great bottles of wine!
I admit my mistakes; however, I always state that I simply feel that way. Other folks make hard core, almost guaranteed calls. I think that is almost as ridiculous as the people who believe them. Don’t you?
In my case, I certainly cannot go on technicals as I am not conversant with them.
I use what I think is common economic/financial sense as I did when I disagreed with a fairly large number of experts who said that gold would never rise in price when it was in the $1200 range a few years back. Well I’ll be darned, next stop was $1900. That was about a $700 mistake on the part of some people.
Correct me if I am wrong, and I do mean that, I think that the most I have ever been off is about $120. (It may not even be that high.)
Now please understand, I am no smarter than the next guy but some of the calls out there are absolutely ridiculous. They get even more ridiculous when the “expert” says hey I am not wrong yet. Just wait. Common, that is ridiculous!
Big Al, actually I find it fascinating that a person like you dont look at charts, Rick is so technical, Gary is in to cycles and Doc has his own story… At the end, you all seem to have been long enough in this market and be successful in one way or another… (well maybe some of the readers like Birdman/Matthew others too)
I would find it interesting if you all have a session talking about your path… any painful experience/how lucky on something/ what got you to the right path/ what got you to learn the hard way… and so on… … Nothing too personal or too specific though.. just something general enough if you know what I mean.
Al,
I commend you for being a stand up guy.. You have truly won me over in the sense of your a true character guy. You handle issues in here like a true champ. You honour the freedom of liberty to the highest standard hence why it takes a heck of slot to get someone banned. I’m yet to see it. Your a man of patience and bird and others can attest to why I always use that word. That word al is why your a great investor. Prosperity to you my brother!
Thank you Glen, I do try!
Al, there is no doubt in my mind that you are a great guy. I said several years ago that picking bottoms was a dangerous and reckless proposition. PMS have been downhill from then forth. Look at history, trends, cycles, etc and one can plainly see gold could drop to $650. Or lower. Yes that’s almost 50% lower than today. Will it drop that far…nobody knows, but it is very possible. As someone who has been selling (due to over allocation) I can tell you that the market is very hard, the buyers are few and far between, people don’t want to buy PMS but rather food for their table. I am not going to change your opinions nor is that my intension, just saying you should open your eyes and see what is happening. Investing with the heart is not the way to go.
Thanks Bobby.
I will say that after talking with Gary this morning, I am looking at the metals in a slightly different way.
It is absolutely silly to remain static in this market don’t you think?
No, it was not interesting Al. Having the clarity of one analyst is much more solid.
Its not proving anything positive, constructive having 2 speakers together.
Keep them on their own individually. MUch stronger.
Fair enough. Maybe separately at the beginning of the day and then together after the close.
Hi Doc, Yesterday under Chris Temple’s talk we were discussing how much of our assets we should put into gold and silver and the companies that mine them. I’d like to hear what % of your assets are in bullion and gold and silver mining stocks now, and how much you plan to increase this when you feel they have bottomed. Thanks. BB
Bonzo, you should understand that since I’ve been using technical analysis for years, I tend to be more aggressive then what other folks should be. I attempt to take significant positions when the odds are that we’re very near to a bottom. I then have technicals I watch that if they turn against me, I remove my positions right away. Some of the stocks will be long turn holds since they’re pretty much washed out and have staying power. Right now the amount I’ll put in this sector is largely in cash and I’m just waiting to pull the trigger. Al’s constant refrain of diversifying is very important and should be followed by the investor that can’t pay attention to technicals and other factors. I do put a larger amount of my liquidity ultimately in resource stocks but it’s because I’ve studied the area for years and understand it more then other sectors. I like energy, PM stocks and other resource stocks. Currently, I’m heavy in cash and realize commodities overall have further to fall. However, the PMs are getting so oversold that I’m starting to pay particular attention to them. I do put a higher percentage of my assets then others recommend in resource stocks and have been waiting for months for this opportunity. But once again, I’m not someone that hands over his assets to a broker that then invests the usual percentages in diversication to this area—-the percentages are higher based on the reasons I gave above.
Thanks, Doc. I’m with you. There are times when I sleep better with a lot more precious metals and mining shares than is usually advised. And for me this is one of those times, even if gold may drop another $200, as the upside is thousands of dollars.
BB
Over the long haul. I believe you can’t lose with owning the actual metal—-all you have to do is look at the last 50 years.
I think that owning physical is a great way to potentially take care of yourself and your family. And if your heirs get it, so what!
http://www.usawatchdog.com/ Recent interview by Greg Hunter with Mike Snyder for the ECONOMIC COLLASPE BLOG…please listen for your edification and preparation.
All the best
Thanks Marc.
Yes, thanks Marc. That was a fascinating interview. First time I have heard Michael speak. His outlook is sobering.
Greg Hunter and Mike Snyder say a number of things that are not accurate.
Mike Snyder states that the US has BUILT China’s economy. That is not true. China is really the one that has built up it’s own economy. The US has just helped China to build up it’s own economy by sending some jobs overseas.
They state that there has been NO economic recovery. That is not true. There has been an economic recovery, just not a very strong one. Mike Snyder quotes the NY Times and says the average American household wealth is down 36% from 2004. No kidding. We had a real estate bubble back then. Real estate was a big part of people’s net worth. Wealth was inflated in part due to this. The recession did not begin until 2007. So if we look at average American household wealth back in 2009 when the recession ended and compare it today you will see there has been improvement. Just not back to pre-recession levels which were inflated somewhat because of the housing bubble.
Mike Snyder states that the price of EVERYTHING is going up constantly. That is clearly false. The price of EVERYTHING is not going up constantly. I know a number of things that have not gone up in years. A few things have even gone down in price.
I have not even gone through half of this video yet but I am sure when I do I will find more inaccuracies. I am not saying that everything is good, because it is not, but just that that there has been a general improvement in the economy since 2008-2009. And yes there are more jobs available then there was back in 2009.
I find it is not uncommon for people who are a little on the gloom-and doom side to sometimes exaggerate things and cherry pick their data to their benefit.
Mr. Miller,
I do agree with you. Sometimes it is difficult to see the forest through the trees. When a person has an agenda, it becomes even more difficult!
Great points JMiller. I appreciate you breaking it down a bit. Sometimes I get tired and just watch and let them run without trying to fight the stupid arguments because they are so relentless in their negativity. Maybe I am just numb to it now.
Numb? Walk in my shoes, Bird!
To continue with more of the errors in this video.
Greg Hunter mistakenly says that food inflation is not counted by the government in the 2% number, meaning the CPI. The fact is that food and energy prices are included in the widely reported CPI which is currently reported as being 1.7% over the last 12 months. Food and energy prices however are not included in the core CPI.
Michael Snyder says that there is permanent damage to the economy. Without question there has been long lasting damage to the economy. Everyone knew it would take years for the economy to recovery because of the depth of the recession/depression. To say that the damage is permanent is something that no one knows.
When it comes to derivatives, Michael Snyder says that 5 of the 6 “too big to fail” banks each have over $40 trillion exposure to derivatives. I just to expand upon this. This amount is the notional value, not what they could lose. Very rarely does anyone’s losses in a derivative come close to the notional value. Plus in derivatives you have winners and losers. Not every derivative is going to lose money. Some will make money. And certainly the losses will not even be close to the notional value. That was the case for AIG, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, LTCM. Their derivative losses were only a fraction of the total notional value which was still enough to put them out of business. So no, it is highly unlikely that the big banks will have losses in the tens of trillions of dollars because of derivatives as some fear mongers and doomsayers believe. But the losses could still easily be in the trillions of dollars.
AL you were asking for feedback on the group kind of segments, BEST part of what you guys do. Look forward to roundtable discussions even more than weekend show. Great stuff!
Thanks Jay!
They are all good show lately Al, no matter which way you mix it up. Where is Rick lately though?
Rick is in Las Vegas where he and Cory visited the Corvus Gold Property. He will be back tomorrow.
Thanks for the input.
Good to hear. Rick is missed.
He is one good guy, Bird. Glad to have him as a friend!
Absolutely Al. He is one of the smartest guys around and he has a lot of integrity. Hey, I think we need to look hard at the miners today. We are at a key inflection point and I don’t think we are going to trade sideways. I am almost wondering if Monday is not going to set the tone for the rest of this year. I would love to hear Ricks take on which way they are going to move.
First thing Thursday morning, Bird
Thanks Al!
Al…plan your show that best fits the your and your speakers schedules. I’ll listen to all of them either together or one at a time. Thanks for the great web site!
Many thanks SDSAILOR!
Oil is not looking too good at the moment; might drag the markets lower. Thoughts?
I would think just the opposite, Chris.
Chris, technically, oil is going lower—-there’s a chance it could bottom in 2 weeks where there’s good resistance.
Chris—-I meant support.
Join the club Richard. I do that every day. It’s senility you know!
Senality is the correct spelling of that wonder affliction!
For you Big Al, http://palisaderadio.com/. Listen Edward Griffin interview. How the Fed born…
I interviewed Mr. Griffin years ago. He is certainly an interesting guy. Palisade Radio, I should have sold it my business plan!
Pray for peace, but prepare for repelling Jihad crazys. Market drop today was in sync with news from Canada , terror attack. love to you all S
I would really be surprised Mr. Hamilton if that had much to do with it!
Just watched a Maloney video, he seems to think its the taper causing the market dropping.
Huh?
Doc
On gold, one analyst said that for gold 2011 was the 9 year cycle top and will bottom out 2016-17. it bothers me a little bit. your opinion?
Billy, at this point in time it’s anybody’s guess. I can pretty well pinpoint near moves in gold but not long term moves—-noone has a crystal ball. All I know is I don’t mind buying PMs on drops—-I’m a long term holder and have complete confidence in our government continuing to screw the economy up.
You have complete confidence in our government continuing to screw up? Wow, that is pretty radical for a meat and potatoes guy! (Sorry Doc, bit my tongue again!)
Funny Doc. Good to hear your confidence is so well placed!
Why does it bother you?
Agree or disagree but don’t let it bother you.
Anyone can say anything.
Letting one analyst bother you is your real problem
Man who keeps picking bottoms end up with stinky finger.
Ha ha ha 🙂
Many “experts”, investors and pundits right now are all scrambling around trying to call the bottom and top in the gold and stocks markets reminiscent of the way bridesmaids jockey for position trying to catch the bouquet.
Like the bridesmaids, most will fail, a few will come close, one will be right.
Those who want to participate in this kabuki theater must be forewarned.
If you are going to really play your cards then you will be putting yourself out there.
If it is just a chance to make a name for yourself you can hedge and play both ends against the middle.
Parse your words carefully and remember Sun Tzu and the Art of War.