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When you see articles like this in The Boston Globe it certainly gets your attention. Comments?

Big Al
October 23, 2014

Vote all you want. The secret government won’t change.

The people we elect aren’t the ones calling the shots, says Tufts University’s Michael Glennon

 

THE VOTERS WHO put Barack Obama in office expected some big changes. From the NSA’s warrantless wiretapping to Guantanamo Bay to the Patriot Act, candidate Obama was a defender of civil liberties and privacy, promising a dramatically different approach from his predecessor.

But six years into his administration, the Obama version of national security looks almost indistinguishable from the one he inherited. Guantanamo Bay remains open. The NSA has, if anything, become more aggressive in monitoring Americans. Drone strikes have escalated. Most recently it was reported that the same president who won a Nobel Prize in part for promoting nuclear disarmament is spending up to $1 trillion modernizing and revitalizing America’s nuclear weapons.

Why did the face in the Oval Office change but the policies remain the same? Critics tend to focus on Obama himself, a leader who perhaps has shifted with politics to take a harder line. But Tufts University political scientist Michael J. Glennon has a more pessimistic answer: Obama couldn’t have changed policies much even if he tried.

Though it’s a bedrock American principle that citizens can steer their own government by electing new officials, Glennon suggests that in practice, much of our government no longer works that way. In a new book, “National Security and Double Government,” he catalogs the ways that the defense and national security apparatus is effectively self-governing, with virtually no accountability, transparency, or checks and balances of any kind. He uses the term “double government”: There’s the one we elect, and then there’s the one behind it, steering huge swaths of policy almost unchecked. Elected officials end up serving as mere cover for the real decisions made by the bureaucracy.

RELATED: ‘National Security and Double Government’ by Michael J. Glennon

Glennon cites the example of Obama and his team being shocked and angry to discover upon taking office that the military gave them only two options for the war in Afghanistan: The United States could add more troops, or the United States could add a lot more troops. Hemmed in, Obama added 30,000 more troops.

Glennon’s critique sounds like an outsider’s take, even a radical one. In fact, he is the quintessential insider: He was legal counsel to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a consultant to various congressional committees, as well as to the State Department. “National Security and Double Government” comes favorably blurbed by former members of the Defense Department, State Department, White House, and even the CIA. And he’s not a conspiracy theorist: Rather, he sees the problem as one of “smart, hard-working, public-spirited people acting in good faith who are responding to systemic incentives”—without any meaningful oversight to rein them in.

How exactly has double government taken hold? And what can be done about it? Glennon spoke with Ideas from his office at Tufts’ Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. This interview has been condensed and edited.

IDEAS: Where does the term “double government” come from?

GLENNON:It comes from Walter Bagehot’s famous theory, unveiled in the 1860s. Bagehot was the scholar who presided over the birth of the Economist magazine—they still have a column named after him. Bagehot tried to explain in his book “The English Constitution” how the British government worked. He suggested that there are two sets of institutions. There are the “dignified institutions,” the monarchy and the House of Lords, which people erroneously believed ran the government. But he suggested that there was in reality a second set of institutions, which he referred to as the “efficient institutions,” that actually set governmental policy. And those were the House of Commons, the prime minister, and the British cabinet.

 IDEAS: What evidence exists for saying America has a double government?

GLENNON:I was curious why a president such as Barack Obama would embrace the very same national security and counterterrorism policies that he campaigned eloquently against. Why would that president continue those same policies in case after case after case? I initially wrote it based on my own experience and personal knowledge and conversations with dozens of individuals in the military, law enforcement, and intelligence agencies of our government, as well as, of course, officeholders on Capitol Hill and in the courts. And the documented evidence in the book is substantial—there are 800 footnotes in the book.

IDEAS: Why would policy makers hand over the national-security keys to unelected officials?

GLENNON: It hasn’t been a conscious decision….Members of Congress are generalists and need to defer to experts within the national security realm, as elsewhere. They are particularly concerned about being caught out on a limb having made a wrong judgment about national security and tend, therefore, to defer to experts, who tend to exaggerate threats. The courts similarly tend to defer to the expertise of the network that defines national security policy.

The presidency itself is not a top-down institution, as many people in the public believe, headed by a president who gives orders and causes the bureaucracy to click its heels and salute. National security policy actually bubbles up from within the bureaucracy. Many of the more controversial policies, from the mining of Nicaragua’s harbors to the NSA surveillance program, originated within the bureaucracy. John Kerry was not exaggerating when he said that some of those programs are “on autopilot.”

RELATED: Answers sought on CIA role in ‘78 JFK probe

IDEAS: Isn’t this just another way of saying that big bureaucracies are difficult to change?

GLENNON: It’s much more serious than that. These particular bureaucracies don’t set truck widths or determine railroad freight rates. They make nerve-center security decisions that in a democracy can be irreversible, that can close down the marketplace of ideas, and can result in some very dire consequences.

IDEAS: Couldn’t Obama’s national-security decisions just result from the difference in vantage point between being a campaigner and being the commander-in-chief, responsible for 320 million lives?

GLENNON: There is an element of what you described. There is not only one explanation or one cause for the amazing continuity of American national security policy. But obviously there is something else going on when policy after policy after policy all continue virtually the same way that they were in the George W. Bush administration.

IDEAS: This isn’t how we’re taught to think of the American political system.

GLENNON: I think the American people are deluded, as Bagehot explained about the British population, that the institutions that provide the public face actually set American national security policy. They believe that when they vote for a president or member of Congress or succeed in bringing a case before the courts, that policy is going to change. Now, there are many counter-examples in which these branches do affect policy, as Bagehot predicted there would be. But the larger picture is still true—policy by and large in the national security realm is made by the concealed institutions.

IDEAS: Do we have any hope of fixing the problem?

GLENNON: The ultimate problem is the pervasive political ignorance on the part of the American people. And indifference to the threat that is emerging from these concealed institutions. That is where the energy for reform has to come from: the American people. Not from government. Government is very much the problem here. The people have to take the bull by the horns. And that’s a very difficult thing to do, because the ignorance is in many ways rational. There is very little profit to be had in learning about, and being active about, problems that you can’t affect, policies that you can’t change.

Discussion
29 Comments
    Oct 23, 2014 23:53 AM

    gold falling & silver doing nothing? what’s up with that?

      Oct 23, 2014 23:07 AM

      FOMC meeting maybe

        Oct 23, 2014 23:09 AM

        FOMC meeting is next week.

          Oct 23, 2014 23:02 AM

          Gold is usually hit before the meeting.

            Oct 23, 2014 23:11 AM

            Gary has some interesting comments gold… and Doc was calling for a continued fall to the end of this week.
            As for silver it is nice to see it move at least a little bit up. I won’t get my hopes up too much though. At least not right now.

            Oct 23, 2014 23:12 AM

            You guys are right about the FOMC meeting. The PMs seem like they get hit 90% of the time leading up to it.

            Oct 23, 2014 23:28 AM

            Cory, based on the relationship between gold and silver, does it make sense to dump gold to cover silver shorts if you only have gold? If I think like criminal, this is what I will do. Same is true if I want cap silvers advance. John Embry had this idea several years ago. Do you want to talk to him?

    Oct 23, 2014 23:13 AM

    Willie Nelson sings Bob Dylan’s song: You Gotta Serve Somebody, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76bY_abaUb8

      Oct 23, 2014 23:12 AM

      Great song, by the way, Machine Gun!

    Oct 23, 2014 23:37 AM

    DW, it’s because gold bonds are starting to fund. Expect gold to plummet , and plummet real hard! Great things are happening!

      Oct 23, 2014 23:47 AM

      What is gold bond? Are they afraid that China and India acquiring a lot of gold using this opportunity? The buying has been very strong in China. A lot people there are waiting to buy gold jewlery. It is going to be the new year and Chinese new year in the next few months. The Dawali has just started. There is tradition that family of the man to buy stuff for the girl even before the marriage. Since there are relatively fewer girls, the mother in law has to work harder.

    Oct 23, 2014 23:53 AM

    It has everything to do with China. Here’s a hint : the 100 year old chickens have come to roost!

      Oct 23, 2014 23:57 AM

      Not sure I get you? I don’t think the Chinese mother in laws are fighting wall street. They just want to put their saving in samething they can trust and get their son a wife.

      Oct 23, 2014 23:14 AM

      I don’t quite follow what you are saying either Chartster… Is China driving down the gold price because they want to hurt the West or acquire more gold or….?

        Oct 23, 2014 23:46 AM

        Cory, I don’t think China can do this yet. The reason is simple. They don’t have the pricing power in gold. This is why China has started the international gold exchange and will add future and option trade very soon. Chinese government has long considered shorting, future and option pure financial gambling and has banned all of them anywhere in China. The fact they allow these trade ONLY for gold is to capture the pricing power. They have to use a machine guy to fight machine gun, but it takes time. Chinese government has been very frustrated by the fact that China needs base metals and price goes up and China buys precious metal and price goes down. The price movement is always against China’s interest. They look foolish in the eyes of people. People have no respect for the government. China is a country when government loses legitimacy, people revolt.

        Also if you think about the price points they hit, they always happen in the whole number, half number and quarter number. The quarter number means absolutely nothing to Chinese, e.g. 17.5 means much less than 17 and much less than 18. In Chinese mind, the precedence will be full number and double number such as 10, 12, 16, 18, 20, etc. 17.5 will never come to mind. So the guy giving the order and execute the order must be an English speaking guy.

    Oct 23, 2014 23:03 AM

    Gold bonds starting to fund? Chickens coming home to roost?
    I guess I’m not up to speed enough.

    I just thought gold was just falling because it was over bought and stocks are surging

      Oct 23, 2014 23:04 AM

      I am confused as much as you. Hope someone can answer us.

        Oct 23, 2014 23:11 AM

        We are getting a lot of insights. These combined with the thoughts from folks on this site should go a long way in getting answers!

        Oct 23, 2014 23:15 AM

        I don’t follow his either guys… Please explain Chartster

      Oct 23, 2014 23:11 AM

      Be interesting to see your comments on Gary’s commentary which I will have up within 1/2 hour or so!

        Oct 23, 2014 23:50 AM

        I am more interested in Chartster’s explanation.

          Oct 23, 2014 23:53 PM

          Not me.

    Oct 23, 2014 23:19 AM

    Al, perhaps the Boston Globe is having trouble selling newspapers/subscriptions, so they publish something that actually makes sense instead of the usual crap/propaganda.

    Oct 23, 2014 23:30 AM

    There are a lot of bright people on this site. Someone will get it. And after the gold crush, I will explain the how’s and why’s. Think physical , not fundamental or charting. I just hope the timing is what I think it is.

      Oct 23, 2014 23:20 PM

      I will be curious, Chartster, what you think about what Gary said today.

    Oct 23, 2014 23:44 AM

    Chartster I will be waiting on baited breath for you to explain it all.

    In the meantime why don’t you take your crystal ball and start your own blog

    Oct 23, 2014 23:12 AM

    James, I’ve been waiting for ” this 1 move ” for 7 freakin years! I know more about it than any swinging Richard around! So, it’s not if, it’s when. And when is coming very soon.

      Oct 23, 2014 23:56 AM

      I really wish you can share your information. These few people will not affect your profitability. Greatly appreciated.

    Dan
    Oct 23, 2014 23:30 AM

    Chartster.. please explain. Are you waiting for this 1 move for a bullish signal? (I am assuming so)