KER Commentary – Wed 29 Oct, 2014

Let’s talk about the announcement about an hour ago.

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

In the interest of time we did not edit this discussion so pardon the occasional “throat clearing”!


Featuring:
Al KorelinDean LindenMarshall BerolCory Fleck

Comments:
  1. On October 29, 2014 at 12:21 pm,
    keylime says:

    I am so glad I still am short gold.

    • On October 29, 2014 at 12:25 pm,
      Big Al says:

      At this moment in time, I have to agree.

      • On October 29, 2014 at 12:45 pm,
        Birdman says:

        Well that gold dive sure killed my brief bout of enthusiasm. I am better off as a bear.

        • On October 29, 2014 at 3:46 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Not nearly as bad a “dive” as it could have been, Bird. As of now (3:46 p.m. pdt) it is starting to come back a bit. As Marshall said the drop was only about 1%.

        • On October 29, 2014 at 8:51 pm,
          glenfidish says:

          Bird I think you knew what you were doing lol.

          • On October 29, 2014 at 11:52 pm,
            Birdman says:

            Not always Glen. My instincts are pretty good but I still get caught drawing dumb conclusions from time to time. This was a classic case of getting confused by the noise in the data. It is called confirmation bias. I was making the info fit my thesis which is almost always a mistake.

            That’s how we learn though. The trick is to recognize where we went wrong and make changes quickly.

          • On October 30, 2014 at 9:47 am,
            Big Al says:

            And that is the truth, Bird!

        • On October 29, 2014 at 8:55 pm,
          glenfidish says:

          I called your bluff bird. The fed does not know how to bluff anymore. The fed is very predictable IMO. Gold will move once they announce QE4 or some type of ” we have a turn of events” or ” deflation is winning” or my favorite ” Unfortunately due to etc etc etc” we are screwed lol. You will know when the turn comes within there tone.

    • On October 29, 2014 at 8:50 pm,
      glenfidish says:

      I gotta tell ya that if your shorting gold here you got some major cojones. Im neutral and just find with that. I like me sidelines.

  2. On October 29, 2014 at 12:25 pm,
    Chartster says:

    C’mon…..1,203 !!

    • On October 29, 2014 at 1:04 pm,
      Cory says:

      We are getting closer and closer.

  3. On October 29, 2014 at 12:32 pm,
    Wiseguy says:

    I jumped into JDST today at 20.01. I wonder if there is potential for a hedge fund that holds no position but shorting the junior miners on Fed announcement days.

  4. On October 29, 2014 at 12:35 pm,
    Bob UK says:

    Tea time here in the UK. Just had a look at gold and silver. Oh dear. And Greenspan said today to buy gold. I need another beer.

    • On October 29, 2014 at 12:45 pm,
      irishtony says:

      BOB……If I lived anywhere near you I would join you, & it would not just be one….
      Where are you BTW…..I’m in Hastings.

      • On October 29, 2014 at 12:47 pm,
        irishtony says:

        I expect the Asians will be buying once their markets open.

      • On October 29, 2014 at 12:48 pm,
        Bob UK says:

        Swansea, Gower. Wet and windy here. Must remember to buy less gassy beer. Lol

        • On October 29, 2014 at 12:52 pm,
          irishtony says:

          Bob….Stick with good real ale…or Guinness if you like the taste……Heavy rain here most of the day.

          • On October 29, 2014 at 1:01 pm,
            Bob UK says:

            I’d rather avoid any Greenspan Gobbler or Yellen’s Yellow Nectar. Gower Gold is something I highly recommend though.

            One of the QE originators at the Fed was interviewed on BBC Fivelive earlier – he said it would be painful sucking the QE printed money out of the economy. Whatever that means.

          • On October 29, 2014 at 2:42 pm,
            Birdman says:

            They have a mountain of Treasury paper they can move off their balance sheet as the opportunity arises. It is looking more and more that they made a good decision there as market for T-bills is good and prices look like they will rise. That will be offset by potential losses on the MBS paper if they try to liquidate early. So it looks like it may actually balance out somewhat. Treasury demand could soar is there are defaults in Europe. In other words the Fed could be in a position to clean off a large part of its holdings if troubles erupt overseas and pass those on to willing buyers with ease.

          • On October 30, 2014 at 12:12 am,
            Birdman says:

            I think the point is that the risks many see on the Fed balance sheet is exaggerated. For all the talk of “money printing” it seems to be forgotten that what was purchased were assets that have a market value.

            It is not as if the 4 trillion dollars were just ginned up out of thin air and pumped directly into the banks as some people keep asserting. The Fed purchases are a makeup of a variety of securities for which demand exists.

            If, as I believe, there will be a number of major sovereign defaults in the coming years then those assets can and will come available at current market prices and they could also result in very profitable trades for the Fed.

            So I don’t think they have made the mistakes many accuse them of making. For example, this most recent QE involved the acquisition of almost two trillion in MBS and Treasury paper at a rate of 85 billion per month and both of these stand to be in demand as economic woes mount elsewhere and debt buyers seek refuge in the largest and most liquid markets.

            According to an article on Zero Hedge yesterday the Fed has accumulated more than 50% of all recent issues of ten year Treasury notes and those are expected to rise in value in the coming years as deflation becomes entrenched in much of the global economy.

            The upside for them is tremendous actually. The downside for everyone else is they now have a net interest in bad news! (A debt implosion in Japan for example or the failure of the Euro) I think we can conclude the Fed knew exactly what it was doing by concentrating its buying on that term of paper and they have estimated the future correctly based on business cycles and global economic circumstances.

          • On October 30, 2014 at 9:48 am,
            Big Al says:

            Sovereign debt where, Bird?

          • On October 30, 2014 at 2:56 am,
            Birdman says:

            Here is an article that sums up the stupidity of those who keep trying to analyze what the Federal Reserve is actually doing. Its a charmer in its own right although it barely passes the low IQ test.

            But read it anyway (just for fun) and try not to get sick or dizzy as the author attempts to paint the Fed’s buying of assets with pure money printing and then go on to draw conclusions about how many Aircraft Carriers, Stealth bombers and Submarines the government might have bought with all that money.

            This might all be pretty cute if it were not so ignorant.

            Apparently the writer has no doubt about what he is saying as he terms the asset purchases as “injections” into the economy. Gee…is all that cash really all floating around out there? Of course, this is where most of the armchair morons get lost because they have not done their homework and they seemingly have no real idea what bond buying or asset purchases mean or how they even function. Worth a laugh of two on a Thursday.

            Gee, why not just estimate how many burgers and fries all that money might buy!
            Too stupid for words.

            Putting The Fallacy Of QE Into Perspective — ZeroHedge via Mark St.Cyr
            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-29/putting-fallacy-qe-perspective

        • On October 29, 2014 at 1:16 pm,
          Cory says:

          Wet in Vancouver too, not so windy though haha. Just the time of year…

          I agree with Irishtony, you can’t go wrong with Guinness!

      • On October 29, 2014 at 4:15 pm,
        chris says:

        Hastings…beautiful place. A little story of mine: In 1998 me and a buddy took a record collecting trip to the UK. Long story short, we ended up in Hastings tracking down a lead. The record in question: The Accent’s “Red sky at night/Wind of change” Holy Grail of British Psychedelia/Freakbeat. Hard to find record. But lo and behold I am standing in the living room of a gentleman who has the record with its original sleeve. I was determined to get the record and wasn’t going to take a no for an answer. I worked the gentleman for two and a half hours and he still wouldn’t sell the record. I was at the end of my rope. I didn’t know what an else to do. All of a sudden his wife comes in the living room and says, “Roger, just sell the bloody record. I don’t want any hullabaloo during Corrie.” And that was that, he sold me the record… all because his wife wanted to watch Corrie in peace. One of my most memorable days in my record collecting career.

        • On October 29, 2014 at 4:46 pm,
          chris says:

          Big Al, since dinner is coming up in the west coast, here is some cooking music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MHN-kR5WVA

          • On October 29, 2014 at 7:26 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Ypou mean Bob Marley?

        • On October 30, 2014 at 3:24 am,
          irishtony says:

          chris…..Great story…..Do you remember the pier ?..Well it burned down some years ago, it was owned by an offshore company, anyway after a long battle by the people of Hastings, with the council . The council with funding from various sources bought the pier back….They are now restoring it to its former glory….People power worked……BTW CORRIE is addictive for a large number of people….for those who have not heard of it ,…it is a soap……TV….it numbs the brain.

          • On October 30, 2014 at 5:17 am,
            Chris says:

            Hastings pier, of course. Designed by the legendary Eugenius Birch (if my memory doesn’t fail me) Didn’t know it had burned down though. Good to hear it’s being restored. BTW, Tony… I don’t know if you have ever heard about Margate Pier (another pier designed by Birch), but have they demolished it (whatever remains of it)? It would be a shame if they have. That pier was ahead of its time when Birch built it in the late 1850s.

    • On October 29, 2014 at 12:46 pm,
      Birdman says:

      Maybe G was timing an impending bottom.

    • On October 29, 2014 at 1:07 pm,
      Cory says:

      As Marshall says this is not a huge deal. Let’s wait to see how the rest of the week plays out.

      • On October 29, 2014 at 3:50 pm,
        Big Al says:

        I completely agree Cory as I mentioned below to Chartster!

  5. On October 29, 2014 at 12:37 pm,
    James (the lesser) says:

    Let’s be honest, gold is not down a little it is down a lot
    Stocks are coming back, might even get back to even

    The fed is throwing Europe a life line

    I don’t know how this is all going to play out but one thing is for certain it definitely is the moment of truth

    • On October 29, 2014 at 12:47 pm,
      Birdman says:

      A month ago the Fed wanted to kill the dollar rally.

    • On October 29, 2014 at 3:41 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Oh I don’t know if it is the absolute moment of truth. Just another day in the life, James.

  6. On October 29, 2014 at 12:43 pm,
    Dennis M. O'Neil says:

    There is no longer any punch in the punch bowl.
    Partaking in a glass of punch is the equivalent of having a very dry martini.
    CHEERS!!!!!!!!!!!

    • On October 29, 2014 at 3:42 pm,
      Big Al says:

      And, there is nothing wrong with a very dry martini. (Vodka or Gin!)

  7. On October 29, 2014 at 12:43 pm,
    Mark says:

    By ending QE Janet Yellen just cut the stock markets throat !!!

    • On October 29, 2014 at 12:49 pm,
      irishtony says:

      Mark….Tomorrow will be an interesting day.

      • On October 29, 2014 at 3:48 pm,
        Big Al says:

        No doubt about that Mr. Irish!

    • On October 29, 2014 at 12:58 pm,
      Dennis M. O'Neil says:

      What would happen to the price of a house if interest rates were returned to a historically average rate? Say 5.5%.

      • On October 29, 2014 at 3:49 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Well let me see. That is a very complicated question. Damn, bit my tongue.

        We get real interest rates and our place will be off at least 10%!

    • On October 29, 2014 at 1:18 pm,
      Cory says:

      Remember we still have miniscule interest rates which allow the banks to run the markets higher. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few weeks. I’m thinking some serious movements will come after the elections.

      • On October 29, 2014 at 1:41 pm,
        Dennis M. O'Neil says:

        Our market(s) are nowhere near healthy enough to tolerate a normalization of interest rates. We will see both another round of QE as well as ZIRP for as long as we can see.

        • On October 29, 2014 at 4:02 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Probably and that was why I was not confident beyond a shadow of a doubt that Ms Yellen would announce what she did earlier today.

    • On October 29, 2014 at 3:42 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I don’t that is a given at all, Mark!

  8. On October 29, 2014 at 12:57 pm,
    Chartster says:

    Stocks should” blast off tomorrow. Gold should” get crushed. Hoping for both

    • On October 29, 2014 at 1:23 pm,
      irishtony says:

      Chartster…….No reverse that…..haha

    • On October 29, 2014 at 1:52 pm,
      Cory says:

      If the GDP numbers come in strong you could be correct for the markets. However I think that gold will level off off again and not sell off hugely.

    • On October 29, 2014 at 3:48 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I gotta tell you Chartster, I am not at all sure about that. Sorry

  9. On October 29, 2014 at 1:18 pm,
    Robert says:

    why did Allied Nevada (ANV) get crushed today…down 25%

    • On October 29, 2014 at 1:48 pm,
      Wiseguy says:

      Holy smokes! I was looking at them earlier this year. Their book value is $7.50! That’s way less than book. That’s more attractive than HMY that I was looking at before.

      • On October 29, 2014 at 2:47 pm,
        Birdman says:

        Holy Smokes is right. Talk about a death grip from an ugly snake draining the life out.

      • On October 29, 2014 at 7:32 pm,
        Vortex says:

        Wiseguy,

        ANV could very go Bankrupt if the price of gold continues to go lower. Their debt load is staggering to say the least.

        They are in a very bad place. Some big boy may wind up picking this 20 Million ounce resource up for pennies on the dollar or taking a JV position.

        • On October 30, 2014 at 12:28 am,
          Birdman says:

          And so that is how it ends. The gold community is always screaming that the market should be allowed to correct and cleanse itself of bad debts. “We need a reset” they proclaim! But I will bet they never considered that the biggest cleansing would be in their favourite asset class or that the bankruptcies would be the gold miners themselves. Not so surprisingly it is the banks that the gold-bugs wanted to see shut down as a result of insolvency and risk taking. So it will be a bitter pill to swallow when they instead see it is the producers of so-called real money that are actually going to get hung out to dry and sold off for pennies on the dollar. so they will get their wish….just not where they expected. I hope they take their medicine gracefully. There will not be bailouts for mines.

          • On October 30, 2014 at 1:48 am,
            Vortex says:

            Bird,

            No bitter pills from me, I’ve been waiting for this to unfold for a longtime. I can’t wait for 100-200 hundred of these worthless BS so called explorers and debt ridden miners to go belly up and be delisted. Its long past time for dead meat to be removed and the cream of the crop to rise to the top for clarity.

            The sector and industry will be so much better off and the investment oppertunities that will present themself will be staggering.

          • On October 30, 2014 at 9:57 am,
            Big Al says:

            I, John Kaiser, Cory and many others happen to agree completely with you V!

          • On October 30, 2014 at 1:59 am,
            Skeeta says:

            Yep bring it on Vortex,
            There is still too much poor junior mining management sucking a living out of investors whilst producing sweet @*&# all in return.
            Just like many Politicians they are only in it for themselves.
            Only when the gold price is shredded will the remaining mining shucksters be both exposed & closed down.
            Bring it on IMO.

          • On October 30, 2014 at 2:08 am,
            Birdman says:

            Hear, Hear. I am with you guys in that camp. A miner slaughter would do wonders for the industry and be most beneficial for those running their companies responsibly. I think everyone in the business would just wish those crappy little Juniors (with millions of theory ounces in the ground!) would just wither up and blow away so everyone can get back to work and start raising money for real plays. Right now there are too many still making a bad name for everyone else. Mind you, it has always been that way in this business. These busts are really an essential part of separating the wheat from the chaff.

          • On October 30, 2014 at 2:55 am,
            Vortex says:

            Skeeta, Bird,

            I appreciate the rational and level-headed thoughts you guys bring to the table. Its a breath of fresh air to hear excellent counter arguments that need to be addressed in a logical and intellegent manner.

            Keep up the good work.

            V

            V

          • On October 30, 2014 at 3:03 am,
            Birdman says:

            I really appreciate both you guys too. It has literally taken almost five years for the smoke and confusion created by the gold-tards to finally settle down so we can all get back to a rationale discussion. Got to tell you, I sure don’t miss the daily panics and shouting “FIRE” in crowded theatres that those goofballs were presenting as facts every single day. And none of it ever came to pass. I always said, the sooner we clear them out of the gold space the sooner we can all get back to investing in this sector profitably without all the GD noise and confusion!

          • On October 30, 2014 at 10:00 am,
            Big Al says:

            Amen, Bird!

          • On October 30, 2014 at 9:49 am,
            Big Al says:

            I really don’t think that we will see purchases of the producers for pennies on the dollar!

    • On October 29, 2014 at 1:49 pm,
      Bob UK says:

      Oh, did it? I missed out on it shooting from 3 bucks to 6 bucks last Dec after watching it drop for a year. It shoot up sharply and suddenly on false rumours of a Chinese buy out. It has lots of debt and is looking for a buyer.

    • On October 29, 2014 at 1:53 pm,
      Cory says:

      Thanks for bringing that to our attention. That was a huge drop!

  10. On October 29, 2014 at 1:27 pm,
    James (the lesser) says:

    Mark I’m not so sure of that.
    These people have every trick in the book up their sleeve…

  11. On October 29, 2014 at 1:34 pm,
    James (the lesser) says:

    THIS IS THE MOMENT OF TRUTH

    • On October 29, 2014 at 2:49 pm,
      Birdman says:

      You could be right. Both GDX and GDXJ have broken down below their lows of support. Silver is already down there. Gold will be following shortly.

  12. On October 29, 2014 at 1:43 pm,
    don corleone says:

    The imf cory is gonna bail out the fed ultimately.

    • On October 29, 2014 at 1:55 pm,
      Cory says:

      You might be right Don. It’s the West helping the West if that happens. This will be a long way down the road. Plus we might see another QE before the unwinding of the balance sheet ever happens.

      • On October 29, 2014 at 2:20 pm,
        Wiseguy says:

        When the whole “End the Fed” ever (if ever) gains so much momentum that it has to happen, it won’t matter. They will end it, and there will be a huge depression (blown way out of proportion by the media), and the bankers will institute a new central bank seven times as evil as the last one. It happened before with Andrew Jackson. It would happen again. The big question is whether the US will keep reserve currency supremacy through it all this time.

        • On October 29, 2014 at 2:47 pm,
          don corleone says:

          kennedy tried to end the fed and look what happened to him.

        • On October 30, 2014 at 12:30 am,
          Birdman says:

          The Fed will not end. What momentum are you referring too? I cannot name a single person I know who thinks the Fed should be shut down. Other than gold blogs, do you know anybody who has made that an issue?

          • On October 30, 2014 at 6:59 am,
            Wiseguy says:

            You’re right, Bird. I’ve spent too much time over at ZeroHedge, LOL

          • On October 30, 2014 at 10:16 am,
            Big Al says:

            Wiseguy and Bird,

            Give me, if you would, your honest opinions of Zero Hedge. Thanks. (I guess that I should say “give us”.)

          • On October 30, 2014 at 7:21 am,
            Birdman says:

            Don’t feel guilty man, I read it too!

          • On October 30, 2014 at 9:51 am,
            Big Al says:

            I can think of a lot of people who are not gold bugs as you call them who think the Fed should be shut down. Griffin and Dr. Paul are two that immediately come to mind.

            Having said that, you are correct when you say that “The Fed will not end”.

      • On October 29, 2014 at 2:44 pm,
        don corleone says:

        You are right cory and I agree that another qe could be in the pipeline but they are gonna leave that for emergency and there could be the possibilty that it wont have any effect at all or else its effect would be short lived.Remember cory that rating agencies are breathing down the feds neck. Atm the zirp is enough to keep markets afloat.The question is for how long.

    • On October 29, 2014 at 4:04 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Now, Don C, wouldn’t that be funny!

  13. On October 29, 2014 at 1:50 pm,
    Bob UK says:

    Lots of talk in the UK today of interest rates not going up for years.

    It will be interesting how Asian markets respond tonight.

    • On October 29, 2014 at 4:05 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Yes it will Bob UK

  14. On October 29, 2014 at 2:08 pm,
    Chartster says:

    UK Bob, Mario D made a good move IMO with the rates below zero. He made the bank Have to loan money or they loose out from holding it. This spurs the European economy.

    • On October 29, 2014 at 2:25 pm,
      Bob UK says:

      I think they decided to hold onto the cash instead.

      Sweden went to zero IR yesterday. Europe is in deflation but no one will admit it. The UK has had 5 years of a ludicrous state backed housing bubble on top of the housing bubble that we had at the same time as the Yanks, Spanish, Dutch, etc.

      Basically, the UK and EU countries are in a death spiral now but everyone is in denial about it.

  15. On October 29, 2014 at 2:20 pm,
    James (the lesser) says:

    THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT I WAS EXPECTING AND HOPING FOR.
    A SUCCESSFUL RETEST OF 1212.80 FROM A HIGH LEVEL $1256
    This is golden if it holds!
    Brace yourself.
    We will know shortly if this bull still has a pulse!
    If it holds we’re golden!

    • On October 29, 2014 at 3:04 pm,
      don corleone says:

      james the probability is that gold will fall further to 1190 and up it goes again to 1270level approx but if this downward move takes the shape of an impulse and momentum increases strongly downwards on macd then intermediate wave 3 of primary 5 has begun and target would be 995.

    • On October 29, 2014 at 3:53 pm,
      Dick Tracy says:

      James, how could you even doubt that for a minute.

  16. On October 29, 2014 at 3:47 pm,
    Ian in the uk says:

    4 yes 4 trillion printed Dollars and the fed has still got rampant DEFLATION.
    The dollar is rising, (and that is very DEFLATIONARY)and it looks like it wants to rise a lot more. If they don’t create massive INFLATION soon, then with all the debt in the US they are doomed to emulate Greece.
    don’t forget what Ben Bernanke once said about helicopter money, and yellen makes him look like a hawk. So expect something big from the fed ,and soon ( IMO). So I would keep buying Gold if I were you, because when they get that big old genie of INFLATION out of his bottle, they won’t get him back in it easily.
    And remember DON’T FIGHT THE FED.

    • On October 29, 2014 at 4:28 pm,
      J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

      DON’T FIGHT THE FED…………….OR ……..END THE FED…………..

      • On October 29, 2014 at 4:29 pm,
        J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

        How long will the sheeple continue to suffer all over the world at the hands of a few…

        • On October 29, 2014 at 4:35 pm,
          Sooze says:

          The sheeple will only care once their 401ks are wiped out.

        • On October 29, 2014 at 4:40 pm,
          franky says:

          JERRY MAYBE DAY UNDERSTAND THIS WAY ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQkVRKIMIRI

          • On October 29, 2014 at 4:53 pm,
            J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

            there is an old Chinese saying………..chop chop……………..

    • On October 30, 2014 at 12:37 am,
      Birdman says:

      Liquidity can be withdrawn simply by selling Treasuries that the Fed currently holds on its books. Those represent a majority of Fed holdings. As long as there are willing buyers the debt can be passed along, the original transaction will be reversed and the Fed will reduce its asset balance while increasing its cash position and thus be in a position to extinguish that money that was created. This is really fairly straightforward. The hyperinflation theory is not valid and certainly cannot be compared to what Germany did many years ago when they manufactured money to pay the civil service.

  17. On October 29, 2014 at 4:00 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Fed rates unchanged, The Fed is trapped it’s all smoke and mirrors. Uncle Sam is on life support and The Chinese will be the next World’s Reserve currency.

    • On October 29, 2014 at 9:05 pm,
      glenfidish says:

      Tracy,

      I agree that they are now trapped with the ending of bond purchases. In my views they just gave the signal to short equities. But many in hear are in denial. Equities will start rolling over very soon. After elections I believe.

  18. On October 29, 2014 at 4:23 pm,
    gary says:

    Don’t try to pick a bottom in gold just yet. It’s still early in the cycle and it looks like the bloodbath phase has probably begun. Give it time to reach the bottom first before jumping back in the pool. This could take 5-10 days.

    • On October 29, 2014 at 4:47 pm,
      Chartster says:

      Gary , I agree this is bloodbath stage regarding metals. I hope the bottom is in 5 to 10 days, that would be an amazing huge volatile drop! Considering where I think the bottom is. Thanks for your insight

    • On October 29, 2014 at 7:39 pm,
      Vortex says:

      Gary,

      Rick Rule has just come out and stated that the real capitulation phase will take place sometime in the next 18 months.

      He says keep your powder dry for the buy of a liftime. He expects many of the best miners to drop an additional 30% from here and that will likely be the final bottom and the start of a bull market that will be beyond your wildest dreams in wealth creation and the last one of his lifetime.

      • On October 30, 2014 at 12:39 am,
        Birdman says:

        Got a link to that story?

        • On October 30, 2014 at 10:37 am,
          J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

          KWN……….YOUR FAVORITE…………

      • On October 30, 2014 at 6:30 am,
        glenfidish says:

        Vortex,

        I don’t remember him saying anything about 18 months but I could be wrong. He has changed his tune a few times as well. He has changed his tune from previous. First he said we were close to the bottom and he now expects a “SAUCER SHAPED RECOVERY”. This was last year and beginning of this year. Now suddenly we drop an additional 30%. That’s call V bottom if you add to current drop already. I take these guys with a grain of salt. DYOD.

    • On October 29, 2014 at 9:07 pm,
      glenfidish says:

      Gary you said a week ago that you were not sure if gold hit it’s Intermediate cycle low. Are you still looking for that? And how many days are we into your daily cycle low? Thanks

      • On October 29, 2014 at 9:50 pm,
        Gary says:

        As of today it does look like the ICL is still in front of us and not behind. Today was day 17. The average is about day 22/23 for a cycle bottom and sometimes it can stretch to 28 days or longer. So I’m not going to expect a bottom until the elections and maybe not until the employment report.

        • On October 29, 2014 at 9:57 pm,
          glenfidish says:

          Gary,

          Your a stand out guy to respond very quickly. Thanks a bunch and im sure the viewers are also grateful. Im with you on elections day give or take one day should find some type of bottom for gold.

          • On October 30, 2014 at 12:40 am,
            Birdman says:

            Is Gary running in the elections now 🙂

    • On October 30, 2014 at 5:15 am,
      don corleone says:

      I agree gary.Gold has not reached the bottom yet.Gary the retracement after gold bottoms is gonna take us approx.to 1450-1525 level and then the third and final wave down (wave c) to 600-900 range.Good luck brother.

      • On October 30, 2014 at 6:34 am,
        glenfidish says:

        Mr. Don,

        I disagree final numbers. Doesn’t mean it can;t happen. What changes your figures? QE 4 would not allow 600-900 to happen. I expect QE 4 to be launched at the very minimum fall of next year.

  19. On October 29, 2014 at 4:26 pm,
    J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

    KITCO………..Miners are reporting third quarter losses……………how long will that continue, before the miners say……no…, prices need to go up……

    • On October 29, 2014 at 4:43 pm,
      franky says:
    • On October 29, 2014 at 4:53 pm,
      franky says:

      Day don’t wond to go dear ! Day all still feel ok in the LIA ! THE DOLLAR LIA and klasse ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3IWGitVY50

    • On October 30, 2014 at 12:44 am,
      Birdman says:

      Told you they should have hedged, Jerry. We were all discussing that back when gold was at 1500 dollars and look at them now. Scrambling for their sorry lives and regretting that they did not forward sell even a portion of their output. Live and learn I guess. Plenty of the outfits will need new management. Next time they should find people who don’t subscribe to gold blogs!! I wonder if Arts Majors would make better gold executives. They are more creative thinkers.

      • On October 30, 2014 at 9:53 am,
        Big Al says:

        Interesting observation Bird, some of the most success folks in this area in the world happen to be liberal arts majors. Robert Friedland comes to mind!

      • On October 30, 2014 at 10:54 am,
        J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

        Bird………….when did you tell me that?……………..

  20. On October 29, 2014 at 6:50 pm,
    Jody D says:

    Al,
    Bob Moriarity has an interview on Goldseek.com. Some might be interested in viewing it.
    Thanks,
    Jody D
    Sorry, for some reason I could not link it tonight.

    • On October 29, 2014 at 6:52 pm,
      Jody D says:

      Sorry that I misspelled Bob’s last name!
      Jody D

  21. On October 29, 2014 at 8:01 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    The bankers have everyone fooled as usual, people shouldn’t be asking where is the bottom of the gold market but rather how far can the stock market fall when it becomes apparent that the sellers after the last drop have been the bankers. Traders who had sold higher up are coming back into the market with new purchases in the hope that the bottom has been reached. They will be handed a devastating defeat.

  22. On October 29, 2014 at 9:12 pm,
    Matt says:

    Yeah,spot silver is down 12 cents since the FOMC release.
    I imagine a great many bright minds loaded up on physical and quality shares after that meeting.

    • On October 30, 2014 at 12:48 am,
      Birdman says:

      Looks like a retest of the Silver lows in early October is in the cards. Hitting a 16 handle again. Ouch man, that has got to hurt! All I can say is thank you God for giving me the wisdom NOT TO BUY physical metals these past three or four years.

      • On October 30, 2014 at 12:55 am,
        Birdman says:

        Jesus….another 40 cent decline. This is a silver murder blood bath! So much for my idea that the fed might like to telegraph inflation with support under precious metals. Not that the theory is really all that bad. Its just that its not in the cards yet.

        • On October 30, 2014 at 1:04 am,
          Skeeta says:

          IMO the Fed is more often reactive than proactive.

          …..look no further than history Bird.

          • On October 30, 2014 at 1:22 am,
            Birdman says:

            Well that is sure the popular thinking. We probably don’t give them enough credit for planning on events that are actually over the horizon and unknown to most people who don’t follow the larger cycles.

          • On October 30, 2014 at 1:34 am,
            Skeeta says:

            If their job is stability….well I’ve seen drunks walk a straighter line.

          • On October 30, 2014 at 2:01 am,
            Birdman says:

            What is good for them and what is good for us might not be the same thing.

          • On October 30, 2014 at 2:18 am,
            Skeeta says:

            Well that all depends on who you are.

          • On October 30, 2014 at 3:04 am,
            Birdman says:

            Get out, man! You work for the Fed! I hope you are kidding.

        • On October 30, 2014 at 9:54 am,
          Big Al says:

          The drop in silver is interesting Bird. As, by the way, are these markets!

  23. On October 29, 2014 at 9:28 pm,
    Brian says:

    It is simple: All of this buying by the FED (@ 0%) is to reduce the US debt by constantly rolling over debt (and steam-rolling the saving class – retired people). Every other theory is noise.

    • On October 30, 2014 at 12:49 am,
      Birdman says:

      Sorry……How is the debt reduced, Brian?

  24. On October 30, 2014 at 3:08 am,
    Birdman says:

    Whew! Silver is just 9 pennies off its lows in early trading and gold testing 1200 dollars right now. That is a lot of bear action in just 24 hours. Makes me wonder how wickedly the day will open. It sure as heck is not auspicious 🙂

    • On October 30, 2014 at 3:09 am,
      Birdman says:

      Yeah, I am enjoying this just a little bit.

  25. On October 30, 2014 at 3:49 am,
    Birdman says:

    So I have another interview for all to see. It is on USA Watchdog.com hosted by Greg Hunter. So here we have a rich guy (Ergon von Greyworst) with an important job and plenty of assets under his authority who says some of the stupidest things imaginable.

    You listen to this stuff and it is just one line after another of gold-bugs mother milk.

    The same repeated incorrect information that passes for intelligence every day in that sorry community of people who believe in hard money and gold backed currencies.

    And it is not just that he repeats misinformation and per-programmed brainwashed junk but the real wonder is he actually seems to believe what he is saying.

    I mean truly…this is classic material. From the crypts of the gold dens. I wonder if he even thinks about what he is saying. For an intelligent guy with so much responsibility he comes across as a complete idiot. Not an original idea in the entire 30 minute video. Just a rehash of the same old repetitive garbage.

    The Reset Will Be Dramatic – Egon von Greyworst
    http://usawatchdog.com/disorderly-reset-coming-dollar-goes-to-zero-egon-von-greyerz/

    • On October 30, 2014 at 4:04 am,
      franky says:
    • On October 30, 2014 at 4:36 am,
      Vortex says:

      Bird,

      Egon is I’m sure a good guy and he truely believes what he is saying. But no one and I mean no one tops that goofball Harvey Organ as the lead moron of the year for his nonsensical clownish call for $10,000 gold by year end 2014.

      Serioulsy, Harvey Organ makes Bo Polney look like a Budda Monk.

      The removal of his site may have saved this guy from the utter and complete humiliation of allowing the public to comment on his gastly and rediculas call when it never becomes even a wet dream of grandiousity.

      Most folks in this PM sector have not an ounce of shame for their deriliction of reasonable and responsible thought.

      • On October 30, 2014 at 5:17 am,
        Birdman says:

        I can’t comment on Ergon’s goodness of badness of course since I don’t know anything about him other than what he says online but his calls on metals have been amongst the worst and most untimely all the way down. He must be drinking the Kool-aid. ….maybe he will be right one day. Like our own local pumpers whose names i need not recite. They are all delusional about gold and seem to have no idea that the world changed back in 1971 and will never be quite the same.

      • On October 30, 2014 at 10:08 am,
        Big Al says:

        I would agree, but I have to say that I don’t believe that particular characteristic is prevalent on our site. Agree?

  26. On October 30, 2014 at 4:49 am,
    Steven says:

    If QE is toast then it is a sure bet that America is dead and gone and the Fed just quit flogging a dead economy. There is no political will to cut government spending and pay down debt and the people don’t want to give up their welfare cookie and they don’t want to admit that their real estate is grossly over priced relative to wages. There is no reason for a recovery to happen and wishful thinking won’t create one out of thin air.
    When is the funeral and liquidation sale?

    • On October 30, 2014 at 5:13 am,
      Birdman says:

      Right after the last of the gold bugs falls out of the tree. GDXJ was down almost a whopping 8% yesterday and now it below its major support. So much for all those so-called analysts who kept linking charts for us and proclaiming now was the time to buy. I am pretty sure the last of them will be broke before this is all over and they can go back to flipping burgers or whatever it was they did before they got the inheritance and an internet connection/

    • On October 30, 2014 at 10:10 am,
      Big Al says:

      I don’t agree Steve.

      Remember QE can start again anytime.

  27. On October 30, 2014 at 5:43 am,
    Lawrence says:

    Final attack is here. A lot of miners might not survive, especially silver producers. Market should have fully priced in the end of QE. Unfortunately, they won’t let the manipulation go. I am not buying more miners. All the left over money into silver in the next few weeks.

    • On October 30, 2014 at 5:50 am,
      Birdman says:

      Miners are not being manipulated. If there were buyers of shares and there was genuine demand then share prices would be rising and that cannot be hidden. This incidentally is also evidence that gold is not being manipulated as some claim as share demand is reflective of golds price and vice versa. In other words, if gold was manipulated up to the stars would miners stay in the dumps or if gold was managed down to 1000 bucks would miners soar?

      • On October 30, 2014 at 6:10 am,
        Lawrence says:

        I don’t think miners are manipulated. However, with the current price they cannot survive. With silver at over $19 last quarter, the best silver producers lost over $2 in Q2. It is just matter of survival. I think commodity will always survive but the producers come and go. If even the best ones are losing so much, the others are just just in their last breath. This might be the buy of a life time if you pick a winner but too risky

        • On October 30, 2014 at 7:03 am,
          Birdman says:

          Lawrence, in 2009 silver was trading under 10.00 dollars an ounce. That was just 6 short years ago. For the 25 years preceding 2009, silver was also trading below 10.00 in almost every single one of those years.

          Do you honestly believe that mining was unprofitable for all the silver producers all those years or that inflation was so exceptional in the six years between 2009 and 2014 that break even costs have rocketed up to or exceeded 21 dollars?

          Look man, the numbers you quote are ridiculous and you are being fed a bill of goods. Do NOT believe it for one minute. Silver is still suffering the hangover of a speculative bubble that had taken metals almost to 45 bucks.

          At 45 dollars there were people claiming that was fair price. It is so stupid I hardly have words to criticize those folks. And at every tick down they cry that miners are going to go broke.

          Well you know what? Until one actually fails I won’t be listening because it is poppycock.

          • On October 30, 2014 at 7:42 am,
            Matthew says:

            Nominal price and REAL price are VERY different. As recently as the 1950s, silver was under $1 and mined profitably. No mine anywhere could do that today. The metals measure the value of the currency more than the currency measures the value of the metals. That’s a fact.

          • On October 30, 2014 at 8:02 am,
            Birdman says:

            Calculate inflation between 2009 and 2014 and get back to me with an insight I can use otherwise you just wasted time on that post and did not address what was written.

          • On October 30, 2014 at 8:19 am,
            Matthew says:

            How many miners are profitable at $10/oz?

          • On October 30, 2014 at 10:25 am,
            Big Al says:

            I believe that Santa Cruz Silver is.

    • On October 30, 2014 at 10:13 am,
      Big Al says:

      Oh I don’t think that it is the final attack, Lawrence. This old war horse has been around long enough to recognize cycles in this business!

  28. On October 30, 2014 at 5:47 am,
    Birdman says:

    Just for fun, lets do some arithmetic.

    If gold is going to reach 2000 dollars by year end it has one hell of a hurdle to climb.
    Today is October 31 2014 and that means there are just 62 days left until December 31st. Lets assume for simplicity that golds price is 1200 dollars today.

    So gold must climb 12.90 each and every day between now and then to achieve a year ending price of 2000 dollars. But that is not possible since we don’t trade on weekends. Let’s be more honest then…..To reach that wild number, gold must rise by almost 19.51 each and every trading day until the end of year (after excluding statutory holidays).

    If it cannot do that it will not see 2000.
    If it cannot rise in price by 8.40 per day it will never see 1550 either.
    Have any of you EVER seen gold rise every single day?

    So basically, if you are counting on these fictional numbers you are going to lose your money and plenty of it. Time to screw our heads back on folks because both precious metals are still in bear markets and would need to see quite remarkable turnarounds to achieve the preposterous highs others who come to this site propose.

    • On October 30, 2014 at 6:33 am,
      original jj says:

      the majority here bird have been calling bottom after bottom as they howl at the moon for years now…..lol

      • On October 30, 2014 at 7:11 am,
        Birdman says:

        JJ, hey man! Good to see you back. Fortunately most of the hardened gold bugs have already departed and taken their lumps and losses with them. The down side of a speculative blow-off bubble is painful though and I really feel for those who lost. These days the argument is mainly against some of the popular newsletter writers and speakers who keep trying to pump sunshine during the dying days of a price crash. It is because their messages keep infecting fresh minds that the topic keeps getting brought up. Mostly though I cannot criticize posters here who for the most part are pretty bright guys just waiting for the bottom to get back in. I only hash out the disingenuous stuff coming from guys like Poly to keep us all reminded not to lose sense of reality. If we survived this far it would be a real shame to fall back into the propaganda routines when we are so close to the finish line.

        • On October 30, 2014 at 10:18 am,
          Big Al says:

          Those of us who have survived this far, Bird, certainly can and do separate the wheat from the chaff!

    • On October 30, 2014 at 7:04 am,
      Wiseguy says:

      LOL, I’m going to buy a call option right NOW! jk…

      I think people are more likely proposing the Black Swan of (IMHO the only possible one big enough) China saying their Yuan/Ruble BRICS bank is backed by gold and saying it’s really worth $2500 per ounce or something. I don’t even think that would work though either, and I don’t think they could shock and awe so quickly from today.

    • On October 30, 2014 at 10:14 am,
      Big Al says:

      They are fictional numbers, Bird, and that is why most folks here say that they are complete bs!

  29. On October 30, 2014 at 7:08 am,
    franky says:

    This drop will be funny ! Agnico Eagle Down 11 % ! When coruption rules ! We see all dis ! I will buy same in the next weeks good picing time !

    • On October 30, 2014 at 7:27 am,
      franky says:

      Soon we can buy the hall gold market for 1000 $ Ha Ha Ha More More manipulators More !

  30. On October 30, 2014 at 7:14 am,
    Chartster says:

    I smell a gold wash and a massive stock rally…. ( Captain Obvious )

  31. On October 30, 2014 at 7:24 am,
    Birdman says:

    Only 18 cents off my final bottom call for silver. When we hit 16.30 I am a buyer (don’t I have to be since it is my call and you got to put your money where your mouth is and all that jazz).

    • On October 30, 2014 at 7:29 am,
      original jj says:

      be very careful bird with silver, let the market tell you your right instead of your ego…better read this….and his call is for $960+ gold…50% off the 2011 highs

      http://peterlbrandt.com/chart-day-hearty-hi-ho-silver-away/

      • On October 30, 2014 at 7:33 am,
        franky says:

        Thanks original jj ! Cool is the way !

    • On October 30, 2014 at 7:37 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      Silver maybe cheap in US currency but in CDN it’s $18.50 an ounce and gold is about $1350 an ounce so we haven’t seen the savings in Canada and that goes for pretty much the rest of the world.

      • On October 30, 2014 at 8:26 am,
        Matthew says:

        Your point supports what I mentioned above: The metals measure the value of the currency more than the currency measures the value of the metals.

    • On October 30, 2014 at 10:22 am,
      Big Al says:

      Getting close, Bird. $16.47 as of 10:21 pdt on our live chart!

  32. On October 30, 2014 at 7:28 am,
    keylime says:

    Although it goes against the trend I am going to short the stock market around here

  33. On October 30, 2014 at 7:43 am,
    keylime says:

    starting to see more and more anecdotal evidence that this economy is a lot weaker than what is being reported.

  34. On October 30, 2014 at 7:50 am,
    Chartster says:

    From everything I follow, today or tomorrow is the start of a new cycle, and with that comes a major gold wash and a major stock rally. We shall see

    • On October 30, 2014 at 8:48 am,
      glenfidish says:

      Chartster,
      You are correct.. The start of the blow off top in equities and true start of capitulation in miners. It will reverse after elections..

    • On October 30, 2014 at 8:48 am,
      glenfidish says:

      Remember chartster this glen called for major news after elections.

  35. On October 30, 2014 at 8:23 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Check out this great song sung by Bob Dylan in 1963, (more than 50 years ago) The Answer My Friend Is Blowin In The Wind.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWwgrjjIMXA

    • On October 30, 2014 at 8:33 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      This is before he used an electric guitar, when he first began using an electric guitar it caused a furor amongst his fans, can you believe that!