Rick’s take on the loan situation in the US and the long term consequences
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
I’m curious about his certainty, too. I’m no “hidden pivoter” but his 1125 is at the bottom of my long time “worst-case” scenario.
I have obviously spent most of 2014 thinking that it probably wouldn’t happen, but here we are. So, I’m not exactly claiming to have made a special call. ๐
On December 23, 2013 at 7:49 am,
Matthew says:
…Iโll stick with my $1,155-$1,125 worst case scenario.
Pretty certain.
Thanks for the reply. Makes sense to me for a number of reasons right now. I bet it won’t take long to get there.
Why do you like that number matt? What do you see?
Glen, it’s just based on the 2010 breakout and a Fib retracement. Not nearly as cool as Rick’s hidden pivot method.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&st=2009-08-11&en=2010-06-11&id=p45355205287&a=374349595
Rick thank you. Wish you could have answered during trading hours ๐
Al concerning your comments about irrational markets. Don’t forget the adage,
Markets can remain irrational much longer you can maintain your liquidity.
They are not irrational. Foreign economies are in much worst shape, hence them plowing their pension funds/capital into the U.S.
the comment, in case you do not know, pertains to shortsellers.
I have a couple of small companies that continue to buy their shares back, but they are not borrowing to do it and have no debt. Here’s one of them —and it already had a tiny float:
https://canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=til
That may be a hidden gem as there is no reason for tax-loss selling. On my watchlist.
On second look there is a loss from earlier in the year but not much recently.
Dan,
Uranium stocks seem to be good today. My Cameco is up a lot.
UWE is my main dude and it is up today on big volume. Big volume all week. Knocked down to all time lows a week ago.
UWE, I own some.
Cameco, I don’t own any.
Hope these guys respond to uranium price. People have given up for a couple of years and became numb. Maybe it will be happening to PM stocks. Then it will be good time to buy. there seems no relationship between u price and miners
This is Cameco not the other CCO. Ooops, my bad…
I like CCO since it has the highest grade, 200-300 richer ore body than world average . Denison and UEX are my smaller plays. Paladin is the disappointment
I mean 200-300 times richer not %.
Yes I mostly in tse
TIL is trading well below book and has a unique business model. With just 3.6 million shares out, this thing will fly if it catches some institutional bids. With a share price above $5, the big boys can buy it.
CRJ can be considered an emerging gem in my opinion. Despite the current action, it is still up 60% since June and trades at just .36x book.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CRJ.TO&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p36213319284&a=373914878
I had a look at TIL, and it basically tracks back to Golden Predator. What’s the story of that? Is it some kind of shell corporation for a lot of mergers and are the companies that merged not failed gold miners?
It’s a complicated story, but TIL was America’a Bullion Royalty just prior to the change and Golden Predator still exists.
Till is not a shell:
http://tillcap.com/
Thanks Rick, I think your understanding of the macro economic reasons and fundamentals is second to none. You clearly do your homework.
Thanks, Dave. I always simply follow my charts when things seem confusing.
Gary say’s inflation, Rick say’s deflation, I think we are far enough down the road to finally nail this down. When we get into a quandary like this that’s when I like to know Peter Grandich’s thoughts, as well as Jim Dines, does anyone out there subscribe to the Dines letter he should be close to an opinion, and finally I like Bob M’s input but he is undecided as of now.
Looking at Europe and Japan, I don’t think I have to argue any longer. My deflationist perspective has kept me on the right side of the bet for 23 years — starting with my insistence, in the SF Examiner and Barron’s, that the stimulus applied to jump-start us out of the S&L crisis and recession, would NOT produce inflation.
Rick, thank you for responding, if the price of agricultural commodities start falling how will this effect the farmer and rural banks.
Al when margin calls start happening all hell will break loose and stock market will take a nose dive.Stock market is on borrowed time.
Al consumer spending is 70% of u.s. gdp.
Ridiculous… still wailing on about deflation Rick? ? It’ll never happen for more than brief flashes in time. Japan is answering your deflation as we speak. And 5000-10000 contact dumps on the comex pms have ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with gold signaling deflation…. preposterous imo. On a side note how is shorting the sm s going lol I believe every one of Gary s calls have been nailed and if oil bottoms next week that will round it all out ๐
Why don’t you sit down and shut up, Jay. Maybe your eyesight will return.
Well done. I guess I should check my eyes. Gary said buy the dip and this .89 qqq calls which are now at 4 and change are realllllly looking deflationary in my act.
Speaking as someone with 40 years of option trading experience, 12 of them in the pits, I can only encourage you to double down on your next bet. You obviously could use a lesson.
Why a lot people assume a free market is beyond me. You know FED openly intervene in bond and mortgage. They also are reported buying stock futures. If central banks intervene, market action means nothing. It moves to the place they are capable to push. Free market is long gone. Even the freer market like early 2000s is much easier to analyze. The question is with the current extremes, how long can they hold, especially in physical commodities. The producers have to respond to supply/demand since they can not print money and most of them are out of the reach of Wall Street.
They can definitely push DOW to 30000 but their action of printing money will support gold as well. As cost of production increases due to inflation, producers will fade away and there is less supply. We are here for silver.
Do you see oil goingto around $55 currently Rick? Gary said 1 week ago he sees $ 97-100…I could buy 2 contracts each way in xle and which ever comes true (assuming one does) I will have made 2-4x my money…better to go one way and be right though ๐
Yes, PC, I do see oil falling to $56.
Rick, is that best rebuttal you ca give to Jay.
Telling him to sit down and shit up? Who do you th
Rick, is thatcthe best rebuttal you can give to Jay?
Telling him to sit down and shut up.
Who do you think you are? Chris Christie.
I suppose you’ll tell me to sit down and shut up too now… I am already sitting and I am typing not speaking.
Just tennis, James — returning a nasty serve with a little spin.
And just for the record I agree with you regarding deflation and have said that on this blog more than once
You don’t have to defend your position any longer, James — let the inflationistas explain Europe first. Meanwhile, we’ll let Jay keep believing that this time, finally, Japan will succeed because….well, because its latest stimulus is so darned BIG! It already appears to have inflated the value of his QQQ call options by more than 400%.
Tell you what when a Starbucks coffee goes back to a buck a cup Rick i will buy you a years worth ๐
Pretty safe for you guys, Jay!
If the central planners want inflation so badly why don’t they all get together and simply reprice gold to $5000 an ounce. That will create inflation
They just talk about inflation as a smoke screen. Why do they hide inflation if they want it? They have tried everything to hide inflation from stats and feed this thick propaganda through the media to the public. The inflation is used as excuse for them to create money and benefit government and themsleves. NOTHING MORE. The economists just take this on its face value. Economy is one of the study which uses twisted logic and untolerable to our natural science people.
James , that’s a very good point. My guess is that they want the inflation any place that doesn’t threaten confidence in the actual currency itself
“What isn’t understandable is the long term rational.” – Big Al
My wee perspective after living here in Japan is that Abe-nomics is a bold but vain attempt to throw money at the system to revive it. But unless Japan can invent new industries and re-establish itself as a leader – as it’s trying in biotech btw – then it’s again vain and futile. Everyone here is old and dying. Young people drive around in BMW’s paid for by their parents money. The lightbulb burns brightest before it completely cuts out. Anyway, just my perspective. Probably true WW. Too many people, no new industries. Now we fight for land, food, water, and air. And it is true that it’s been very unfortunate that for sooo long, while most in the west enjoyed freedom, food and water, that maybe 1/2 of he world is hungry and has no hope. Whatever is happening, I hope it works out for the betterment of all peoples, but human nature is such that we fight before we think I’m afraid.
I want to say flat out that for me Rick Ackerman is more in the know then the other analysts, the problem with The Federal Reserve is that it should never and I repeat never contemplate the use of their resources for the creation or extension of speculative credit.
If getting rid of The Fed is not an option, then their powers need to be curtailed, this is an important consideration.
If only that was possible.. We d certainly be much better for it but the last time that happened I believe you guys threw a tea party lol
All they have to do is change the formula again!
Thanks, Dick. When you consider how many hundreds of trillions of dollars have been thrown at deflation via rehypothecation and other forms of financial alchemy, it has floated precious few boats.
Hey, Jay: All credit to you for inspiring my commentary for next week: Monetary Masturbation. Read all about it Sunday night.
Rick,
I totally agree with you on deflation.
Are you willing to share any of your thoughts on future iron ore, copper, zinc and / or any other commodity prices (other than oil) with us on here ?
The same invitation also goes out to Gary & Doc.
As I’m not a subscriber to any of your sites, I understand if you each decide no.
But otherwise I’d love to hear all views from each of you.
Cheers.
Unless we fervently believe the world economy is about to experience an outbreak of good health — one that allows us to pay down all debts without diminishing this would-be miracle — we should expect prices for everything except TBonds to fall. Technically speaking, I take my bear targets one leg at time. Here are a few of my minimum downside targets: Crude: $56; Copper 2.6155; Iron Ore: $62.99; Gold: $1125; Wheat: $347; Sugar: $10.36; OJ: $2.89; NatGas: $3.02. Zinc: Incredibly, its chart doesn’t look so bad.
Rick, your prediction of $56 oil for any length of time will wipe out entire Canadian oil gas industry and all shale oil in North America, and world oil producers will have to seriously cut back. This will be extremely beneficial to china since cheap oil will make their input price a lot lower. China is still moving alone based on my conversation with family and friends there. The economy is becoming more domestically based since people have been receiving better and better salary. Also zinc should be good since there is a shortage coming due to previous cut back on production.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on those commodities Rick.
Enjoy your weekend ๐
It seems the authorities are trying to keep oil above 80 but it is likely to fail and head to at least 70 and then bounce again or it will first bounce from 75.
I’m not much of a believer in “the authorities” and their presumed ability to suppress market forces indefinitely. Anyway, $56 is what I foresee for oil, which would leave just two major U.S. fields producing economically, albeit barely.
Incidentally, I didn’t mention Silver in the list above, but it’s done its darndest lately to validate a 10.820 target. That price seems absurd to me, but the weekly chart is about as clear and compelling on this point as they come. That would of course imply a much lower low for Gold than the $1125 figure given above. I’m scared to look, actually. I plan to hold onto my Maple Leafs, Platinum rounds, Double Eagles and such no matter what, though.
Thanks Rick.
I am watching the game riight now and I have to sat that you live in a beautiful city!
Dent has a crazy target of 10 to 20 for oil. I think production grind down at 50 and cause a sharp rise from there.
Dent’s targets are all publicity stunts. Mine are technically derived.
Beautiful indeed, Al. I’ve been here 15 years and am finally getting used to the place, which is so very different from the Jersey Shore where I grew up. The mountain scenery is all the more striking because, from Boulder, you can look east over the vast, monotonous expanse of the Great Plains.
Rick,
How certain are you now that we hit that hidden pivot number at 1125 you called yesterday since your 1189.20 did not hold?
Thank you