I don’t see any chart. Does it Matter? 🙂

Franky, what’s going on with Fukushima? I thought by now we’d all be dead from it.

Realty! Always the same ! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sbub3xjkmXA

It doesn’t matter.its just another buy with another opinion

Have I got that right? He figures gold settles around $1000- 1300?
A bounce once the selling is over, logical.
We are at $1170 now, and a lot (maybe most?) miners are losing money hand over fist.
There are about 1/2 dozen that pull gold out at around $800, but if this fellow is right, to me, the gold miners sound extremely risky.
How long can these companies continue bleeding cash waiting for Barrick to buy them out?
For some reason I don’t find this very encouraging, maybe Im missing something?

Maybe someone can solve my puzzle.
We know if gold/silver is peaked on a major bull market, it only means that gold price is too high. The producers are making a lot of money due to high profitability created by the big gap between the sale price and production cost. This happened for base metal in the last decade and happened for gold and silver in the 1980. Since the price is high relative to production cost, a lot companies make huge profit. It is why in the last couple years of the bull market in 1979, the mining companies outperformed gold and silver by a big margin. For several years after the peak the mining companies not only did not crash, they actually kept going up. Then the high gold price gradually translated to overproduction the companies start to fade away.

However, we did not see the mining companies outperform in this cycle and even worst, they crashed prior to gold crash and nosedived after gold decline. This is mostly because they operate on thin margin and profitability quickly came down to a loss. There is no margin of safety for them. How can the oversupply continue if the companies cannot make profit? It can’t.

And at same time, the demand is all time high in the East based on China, India and Russian data and based on data from mints of US and other western countries. If we assume that 2011 is the major high in gold and silver price, where does the extra supply come from in the next few years, let alone the fact that producers have to cut production or close down?

Lawrence, the manipulation of metals and other or all assets has been with fiat currencies and the speculation, contracts and derivatives. So there never has been a fair price on anything. Those days of fiat are ending. The rest of the world is forcing that issue right now with the BRICS , Shanghai exchange setting the price of metals and emerging markets sick and tired of holding our currency reserves, causing their inflation. The new cycle is about to begin starting with this metals wash and rebound very quickly. The price of gold should continue to rise based on how much liquidity is in the market place. Silver is way under priced and should really blast off post wash. ( IMO, of course ) It’s going to get interesting in a few months finding physical silver..

I recall Sprott asking repeatedly “where is the metal coming from?”
All demand has been met on a continuous basis.
Gold bugs screamed shortage, any day now here we go for years.
Eventually, we will get a “bounce” as is the case for anything that tanks relatively rapidly.
But all signs Im aware of indicate we are not anywhere near demand outstripping supply.
The Mr Matter might be right, maybe gold settles between 1000-1300.

Gold would get a boost should anyone back their currency with it, but we are years away from that at this point.

Do you know how you measure an economy mired in depression. #1 buying power has not recovered. #2 Commodity stocks are at a rate out of proportion to consumption. #3 Silver prices collapse because of the purchasing power of the orient. Governments want a gold standard. #4 Gold is leaving western economies particularly from Europe and The US and going to Asia. #5 Unrest in foreign countries and the instability caused by diseases like Ebola. #6 The buying power of The US is limited due to a lack of middle class jobs. #7 There is a feeling that life will return to full prosperity but we are now living in a world of increased competition.

A lot of people are predicting a bloodbath for precious metals without realizing they are in one already. With large miners are off 75% and smaller ones are probably 95% off the peak, how much worse are qualified as bloodbath? Not to mention that gold stocks did not perform as well as gold in 2011. Asset always looks the most bleak when it is at the low and most promising at the high. However, people cannot get rid of their emotion. The claim that the market will kill the last gold bull is a pure emotion or hatred. If 20 year bear market in gold between 1980 to 2000 could not kill them, what else can? The propaganda is at extreme if you look at any website or any TV broadcast. They cannot kill the last gold bull because for every seller there is buyer, a bull is born every second. If the last one of gold bulls is killed the price of gold is 0.0 per ounce since no one wants it. Is it possible, no! If we sell at this moment, the chance is lost. We lock in the loss at least for most people here. If we buy, money printing by every central bank of world will save us. No reputable fundamental analyst has given us a good explanation through a non-US centric view. Gold goes down because US economy is improving is pure nonsense. In 2002-2008 the US economy was improving and gold price was moving up at same time. All bearish predictions come from chartists or technical analysts. These people were calling people to buy in 2011 since chart looked bullish. This price drop since QE 3 is a pure manipulation which has to be reversed like any other ones. Otherwise, the gold would still be $35 and silver would still be $0.9.
However, there is a difference holding metal and the stocks. Bolding metal is for wealth preservation holding stock is investment for some and speculation for others.