Don’t try to call a top in the markets… right now at least
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Thanks for posting Gary.
I want to tip my hat to Gary who is the only contributor on this site that did not think we had entered a bear market in the conventional markets on the last correction. The premise that we were in a bear market from the other contributors was that we’d have a bounce off the correction a few weeks back, but then a lower high, followed by another leg down. That didn’t happen, and so Gary is correct that the blow-off stage in the conventional markets is still yet to come, and we are at new highs again in today. The dollar is also up again today, and PMs are down. Good interpretation from Gary so far and he deserves a high five!
love all the contributors, but everyone felt there would be a bounce after the most recent correction the market
The real question after that correction was, would it form lower high, and then go back down confirming a new bear market in the conventional markets…..OR….. would we have higher high (which we had Friday and today Monday) in the conventional markets, showing the bull market was still in place.
This means that the 2250 level in the S&P could still be in play by year end, but then I think a terrible correct will hit the markets. That is when gold & silver will finally get their bid.
On a side note, I thought Palladium & Platinum did pretty good today in the face of strong dollar when Gold and Oil were both down. If the PMs are down, and the King of Commodities (oil) is down, for Pd and Pt to be up was unusually strong. Probably due to the report about record auto sales in October.
Gary, if the cycle is indeed stretched to year end by Goldman and co., with the 1050 target hit, how would you see the next six months playing out? A huge rally in the new year followed by further downside? Or do you think 1050 could be the final capitulation low with a new bull starting thereafter?
Probably a retest next summer in that scenario.
For what its worth, Rick Rule thinks the worst will be over for both gdx and gdxj in the next few weeks.
Rick Rule is the most accurate person I have seen so far. He is a big picture guy with a lot of experience. I don’t think he uses TA but he can nail things by looking at the market. He did not recommend buying any gold juniors for a long time against his best interest as a broker. He started from nobody to become a near billionaire with a good reason – 100% contrarian and great vision. Even Sprott himself deeply admires Rick’s big vision and wisdom. Rick predicted a month ago that in a few weeks, the gold stocks will go no bid and that is the opportunity of life time and he said it will be his last. It is so true.
Rick is also a great guy. Not sure on his actual track record but he has made some very savvy investment decisions.
Be interesting to see if that happens!
I hope he is right. I wonder what he is looking at to make that call.
Do you have a reference to where he made this call Aida?
I e-mailed him last Friday to see how he thought the last phase would play out. He responded from his hospital bed after undergoing hip-replacement surgery. He said he thought the worst should be over for gdx first in about a week and gdxj about a week later. Just his opinion without further substantiation. He is one of three people I check in with for PM stock investing.
Rick is a sharp dude, but he has called the bottom several times now, and so had David Morgan. Love them both, but Gary’s analysis has been more accurate lately.
If I’m not mistaken Rick was calling 2013 “The bottom” for the last year and a half. Obviously it wasn’t the bottom.
IT IS CALLED…………..BOTTOM BOUNCING…………..
Come on Gary, what difference does $1179 and $1169 make? I am not saying you are wrong and actually you are the most accurate one among Al’s guest. I think there is a distinction between fundamentalist and technician.
BTW, I am sure you are not totally technical. You use technical, fundamental and manipulation all together. Only one who uses nearly pure technical here is Rick Ackerman, I think.
Gary that is why I said you should form a school called Manipulation Investing. I mean it.
FWIW I don’t think 1169 is the bottom. Not the bottom is this intermediate cycle and not the final bear market bottom. That should come next summer.
I find myself agreeing with you more all the time Gary.
Birds call of 968 could very well be close.
As Ive mentioned many times, I figure that’s when Chinese buying increases and puts pressure to the upside. At that time the Russians,India,China etc will be more prepared to do business without the U.S. dollar as well.
Should Chinese buying not increase at that time, Im gonna have to concede I don’t have the slightest clue.
I sure hope gold doesn’t drop the whole way under $1000. I feel as though a floor will be set before we go that low.
As for the other countries doing business without US dollars, I think we have already seen it. Plus I bet there are a lot more deals that we do not know about where something other than US dollars are being used.
I believe that Doc also falls into pretty much that category, Lawrence.
Easy Gary those here don’t want to hear or trade off the truth only their own opinions Rick had a heading in 2013 what I’m doing with my money right now and he was a big buyer, bottoms in!!
I just don’t get how so many follow the same gurus who have been dead wrong for years…insanity!!!
I am sure you never listen to Rick Rule during the good time. He is very fair. He discouraged people from buying mining stocks for a long time even he is the owner of investment firm. One of his famous phrase is “if you add all the explorers together to one company, this company loses 9 billion dollars a year. How do you price this thing? one time of loss? ten times the loss?”. Does his sounds like pumper to you? He came to Vancouver to study mining as student in 1960s and became one of the richest guys in the mining industry. His is not the regular guru you think he is. He has billions of dollar in his hands. I know he just got 2.5 billion from Chinese wealth fund.
I have been watching him for years before I am convinced.
110% PUMPER Lawrence….when has he ever suggested selling, or making money from the short side as the miners have fallen 70-80%….he is a BUY side salesmen
I think you should go back listen to his interview on the good times. He did not want poeple to buy mining shares during the good times. Not everyone has to short. Do you hear Warren Buffett short?
I am glad that I listened to his and did not buy crappy shares.
Rule comes from the same Sprott group that was calling for $250 Uranium, $250 Oil and $250 Silver all one they were topping out and you’ve never, ever heard from them to sell only to sell US equities…talk about doing the exact opposite and make fantastic gains, lol….SNAKE OIL SALESMEN
It is extremely important that everyone understands just where others are coming from and what their agendas are. Once that is known it becomes much easier to take or disregard advice!
jj, I am surprised that you don’t know Rick Rule is the owner of Global Resource Investment and just recently acquired by Sprott. They have quiet different approaches. Rick R has no contribution to whatever Sprott was promoting. Unlike us, he goes and takes ownership of companies in private placement.
Anyway, I don’t have to convince you. You can ask Al.
You are correct Lawrence. I have known Rick for a lot of years.
It is absolute insanity, original jj
oil taking its last dump…i hope
Maybe this has something to do with it: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-03/saudi-arabia-signals-it-will-let-oil-slide-further-facts-says.html
Here is another good article: http://online.wsj.com/articles/energy-boom-can-withstand-steeper-oil-price-drop-1414627471
I tend to agree with you jj. Altho Sprott may very well be correct in the looong run, just as the Hunts were, they have lost a lot of credibility as far as I can tell.
rick rule had the right idea last summer. We have not yet had a capitulation spasm. A 2 week blood bath where their are literally ‘no bids’. i.,e. you sell $1000 in a junior explorer and the price drops 50% – well that would be my take !
Yes, I heard that he repeatedly saying there is NO capitulation yet, while I thought there were two last year. He is right on it. He kept wanting to get the ones in early 90s, unfortunately I have no idea what it looked like. If you understand that he is a fundamental guy and made all his rich by go against the heard, it makes a lot of sense.
Apparently the Saudis have just cut the price of crude to the US but raised the price of crude to Asia and Europe.
Surely that is going to change the potential for US energy stocks that you are seeing Gary?
Cut the price to the US and raised it to others? Do you have a source?
Folks this has just been one huge manipulation of the energy markets ahead of the elections. Once we are past the elections oil will find a bottom and head back up. Considering how extreme sentiment has gotten it could generate an exceptionally sharp rally for a couple of months.
This is just like every intermediate bottom. No one every believes me when I say a turn is coming. They didn’t believe me 3 weeks ago when the stock market bottomed and no one will believe me now about oil.
Good call Gary. I believed you.
Crude Oil Rsi is 1.0
People appear to be buying into the gold miners and etfs today folks. What are others seeing?
We should at least head to 1100 or close and then some more short lived rallies. I can’t see a bottom till close to 1035. I mentioned quite some time back the dollar looks like it is heading to 87 or more when it moved up above 80 and a 2nd rally from 85 after a correction. Oil has broken down below 80 and that will bring gold down too.
Chart of the day
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2014/11/chart-day-41.html