Gary Savage – Mon 17 Nov, 2014

It would appear that the dollar has to move.

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Al KorelinGary SavageCory Fleck

  1. On November 17, 2014 at 9:46 am,
    BobUK says:

    All day today in the UK the BBC and Sky News have been running stories about how weak the EU economies are and how they are going to get weaker in the months ahead.

    Europe is an economic basket-case right now.

    • On November 17, 2014 at 9:55 am,
      Lawrence says:

      I went to UK, France and Italy this summer. UK looks calm but Italy looks pretty bad.

      • On November 17, 2014 at 10:10 am,
        irishtony says:

        Lawrence…I was in France things are getting very edgy there as well.

        • On November 17, 2014 at 11:01 am,
          Lawrence says:

          I was only travelling. London gives me a nice feeling of clean and calm. It is not as fancy as Italy and France but it seems well thought out and much newer. Paris feels a little tired and Italy shows the typical signs of economic stress. The sight seeing is great and I love the entire trip. However, I do run into many small incidents in Italy which caused some unpleasant memories.

    • On November 17, 2014 at 11:25 am,
      Gary says:

      FWIW conditions always look bad before a turn. So who knows if Europe is at a bottom and ready to turn up.

    • On November 17, 2014 at 1:30 pm,
      Cory says:

      Interesting that everyone is covering the weakness in the EU. I think that before any major collapse the ECB will get the power to actually print Euros rather than just talking about printing.

      • On November 17, 2014 at 3:13 pm,
        Lawrence says:

        Fully agree. If a major country wants out, they will try at least once

  2. On November 17, 2014 at 10:06 am,
    irishtony says:

    BOB…..2015 is the year the EU falls apart…The people have had enough, & the powers that be are running out excuses & sticky tape . Re Russia I can not see them imposing any more sanctions , despite what Obama wants……..
    If Putin was to cut off the gas valves the Euro would drop faster than a whores knickers….Cameron & the Tories are getting very nervous about whats happening in Europe right now. I get the feeling they are going to try & distance themselves from the mess.

    • On November 17, 2014 at 10:08 am,
      chris says:

      Tony, question: Did the UK pay that EU bill from a couple of weeks ago? Cameron made a big fuss about how he’s not going to pay it, but the story seems to have been buried by the media.

      • On November 17, 2014 at 10:17 am,
        BobUK says:

        Depends whom you believe. Officially we are not paying it. Unofficially the EU is saying that we were due a rebate in the next year so the rebate will pay the bill.

        Toss a coin on what means.

        • On November 17, 2014 at 10:22 am,
          irishtony says:

          BOB..You got in just ahead of me , but we are both saying the same thing.

      • On November 17, 2014 at 10:20 am,
        irishtony says:

        chris.. My understanding is they claim to have had it cut in half (which they are allowed to pay in instalments )…but I believe what really happened was , they were due for a rebate next year , which makes up for the other half , if you understand what I am saying….So once again the liar Cameron fooled the British public…..well the majority who spend most of there time watching football & reality TV.. …..hope that helps.

        • On November 17, 2014 at 10:22 am,
          chris says:

          Thanks Tony and Bob.

    • On November 17, 2014 at 10:42 am,
      Lawrence says:

      I don’t know Europe that much. My mind understands Asia far more than I understand Europe. I think there are two major problems with EU. First, there are too much socialism in the system. Second, the disparity is too large. This wide range of self interest and rich and poor usually can only be held by force. However, Europe is tired of being ordered around by US, especially Germany and France. There is a desire to say no to US. But EU seems to cause more problem than it solves.

  3. On November 17, 2014 at 10:08 am,
    Shad says:

    Cory, that was a good question about what would turn the dollar down if Europe and Asia are still under pressure. Gary had a good response that it would be sentiment, but typically sentiment is combination of fundamentals and momentum. Right now they still both favor a strong dollar, but a black swan could change that.

    The grind down in oil has zapped the commodities complex as a whole. Once oil bottoms, and the Euro bottoms, and the dollar tops, then we’ll be set up for a run in the PMs.

    • On November 17, 2014 at 1:38 pm,
      Cory says:

      I agree Shad, Gary’s answer was very good. Sentiment can be a driver in any industry and the dollar is no different. There seem to be a lot of people calling for turns in major markets. Gold, oil, US markets, USD, Euro…

  4. On November 17, 2014 at 10:13 am,
    Mark Alan says:


  5. On November 17, 2014 at 10:20 am,
    Matthew says:

    😮 ?

    • On November 17, 2014 at 10:33 am,
      Mark Alan says:

      😉 😮

      • On November 17, 2014 at 10:40 am,
        Matthew says:


        • On November 17, 2014 at 10:43 am,
          irishtony says:

          Matthew-Mark…..Has the cat got your tongues………..haha

          • On November 17, 2014 at 10:49 am,
            Mark Alan says:


  6. On November 17, 2014 at 10:46 am,
    Matthew says:

    Say something Mark, Tony is giving up on you!

    • On November 17, 2014 at 10:51 am,
      Mark Alan says:


      • On November 17, 2014 at 10:53 am,
        Matthew says:


  7. On November 17, 2014 at 11:33 am,
    Richard Kerley says:

    I would like a copy of the newsletter. How do I go about receiving it?

  8. On November 17, 2014 at 12:06 pm,
    Bob UK says:

    The German Finance Minister was just interviewed on UK Channel 4 News and talked about QE not being the answer to Europe’s problems because it would not solve the structural problems. Which is true.

    The Germans are very opposed to QE in Europe because of their memories of hyperinflation in the 1920s. So Germany is continuing to put a brake on QE in Europe and probably will continue to do so for many months to come at least.

    So it is hard to see how the Euro will get stronger against the Dollar – if anything is going to weaken the USD surely it has to come from the US side?

    • On November 17, 2014 at 12:35 pm,
      irishtony says:

      Bob….I think it is getting to the stage were Germany will start cosying up to the Russians ,,they don’t want any more sanctions against Russia its hurting their economy too much , that & having to suffer & bail out the rest of the basket case country’s in Europe . I believe the only thing keeping them tied to the EU is all the blackmailing coming from the US…that & the fact that they are scared they will not get their gold back if they jump ship too soon.

      • On November 17, 2014 at 12:59 pm,
        Bob UK says:

        Germany and Russia are long-time enemies so it is hard to see any longterm benefit for them in such a relationship.

        However, one could argue that since 2008 the Germans have manipulated and controlled EU economic policy to their enormous benefit whilst beggaring many of the other EU countries. Maybe they will now think it is time to bail out?

        If they did there would be global economic shockwaves and the end of the Euro. The Euro would not rally against the Dollar. It would not exist.

        Anyhow, all of the above is a HUGE ‘if’ that may or may not happen sometime in the future. In the next 6 months if what I am focussing on. In fact, not even that long – the next few weeks.

        • On November 17, 2014 at 1:25 pm,
          irishtony says:

          BOB…There is a lot going on in the underbelly of Europe at the moment…..As I said yesterday 2015 is when the Eu breaks up….The question is who will have the bottle to walk first ….I think the UK wants to…but I would hazard a guess it may be Italy.

  9. On November 17, 2014 at 12:07 pm,
    Matt BigHouse says:

    Did Doc retire from the daily editorials?

    • On November 17, 2014 at 1:41 pm,
      Cory says:

      Don’t worry Matt, Doc is back! We will be continuing our normal schedule this week.

      • On November 17, 2014 at 2:35 pm,
        irishtony says:

        BOB….Merkel will say one thing , & do something different.

  10. On November 17, 2014 at 1:01 pm,
    genesys says:

    Guys, what if ECB buys gold instead of sovereign bonds for collateral (as European constitution prohibits ECB to monetize local gov’t bonds) + JPM says buy Europe and sell USA? What will happen?


    • On November 17, 2014 at 2:01 pm,
      Lawrence says:

      I think they are just being sarcastic.

      • On November 17, 2014 at 2:05 pm,
        Lawrence says:

        Look at Switzerland, their central bank is fighting tooth and nail against buying gold. They are supposed to be the most gold friendly country. Buying gold is like challenging US dollar. Maybe they are trying to threaten US to get some bargaining chips.

        • On November 17, 2014 at 2:20 pm,
          BobUK says:

          They probably know that the country is already choc full of gold bars with Nazi swastikas on them?

          • On November 17, 2014 at 2:37 pm,
            irishtony says:


          • On November 17, 2014 at 2:55 pm,
            genesys says:

            LOL.. Nice

        • On November 17, 2014 at 3:04 pm,
          genesys says:

          You could be right Lawrence… I just cannot believe the ECB can do any full-blown QE with Germany controlling the Euro… that’s quite a gridlock… maybe a break up of north and south before there could be a kind of QE? Have just been trying to guess what ECB can do as local gov’t bond is not an option…

  11. On November 17, 2014 at 2:20 pm,
    Gary says:

    So far so good. Juniors up over 4% today. If the miners can deliver 5-6% by Wednesday or Thursday I think we’ll have confirmation of an intermediate bottom.

    • On November 17, 2014 at 2:26 pm,
      Lawrence says:

      If gold goes down, they will lose this 5-6% in no time and a lot more. It happened so many times. Gold stock is so mindless.

      • On November 17, 2014 at 2:36 pm,
        Gary says:

        I tend to think if gold was going to go back down the miners would be acting poorly like they were in Oct. Now they are doing the exact opposite.

        • On November 17, 2014 at 2:43 pm,
          Lawrence says:

          Well, this is to say, if the horse is going to go backward later, the cart should go backward now. I don’t quite get this logic. It has been said so many times and never stop gold from going down. The relationship is stock following gold not the other way around.

        • On November 17, 2014 at 2:48 pm,
          Lawrence says:

          I believe Miners are oversold relative to gold. If gold stays flat, miners will go up. There is nothing more than that.

        • On November 17, 2014 at 2:59 pm,
          genesys says:

          YOu got an interesting point Gary… I remember the time Gold lost $1287 as you pointed out but Junior did follow for a short while until gold passed $1240 or something and the junior was in free fall…. stlll there was another time after that when gold and only it was up while minors/silver did not follow…. and gold was striked through 1180… later… will see gold or miners is right this time.

    • On November 17, 2014 at 2:39 pm,
      irishtony says:

      Gary… for what its worth….I think they will.

      • On November 17, 2014 at 2:58 pm,
        J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

        when did you start thinking………….

        • On November 17, 2014 at 3:00 pm,
          J........THE LONG....................OOTB says:

          AL, told me to ask you……………………just kidding,,,,

  12. On November 17, 2014 at 2:33 pm,
    Matt says:

    Speaking of mindless,I often wonder why the world goes along with this strong dollar nonsense in respects to the Euro -creation?
    Seemed very timely for the banksters and their bosses to have created that currency when the US was topping out.
    Just another tool in the toolbox of destruction and control.

  13. On November 17, 2014 at 2:42 pm,
    irishtony says:

    Matt…..Its “ALL” about the US dollar…always has been….always will be……….
    Until ASIA changes the game…& that is fast approaching.

  14. On November 17, 2014 at 5:41 pm,
    Season Spec says:

    Hello to all the Intelligentsia on the internet. Is Denis the Lawyer still on this website? I am seeking his wisdom on inflation and the debasement of American hard work. I need to make some life decisions soon.

  15. On November 18, 2014 at 4:38 am,
    biggus. says:

    Gdxj up 5% yesterday and a further 4% afterhours. Looks like a decent rally has started.