Is the turn in? Gary thinks it is.
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Listen to the interview. I said we came within $80 of GS target. That’s probably close enough.
Like I always say no one ever believes me when we get these intermediate bottoms.
BTW the energy stocks are telling you that oil has either bottomed, or is very close. Just like I said it would right after the elections. Yes I thought it might occur exactly on the election day but it looks like it might be one week later. No big deal in the grand scheme.
Heck I even did an interview and posted an article on Sunday explaining why I think the bottom is in and I’ve been saying for weeks that one was due so don’t give me that crap that I’m flip flopping. I’ve been warning for weeks that this was coming.
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2014/11/gold-bottom.html
We’ll soon know which side of the limb the tree is on… lol ….
Very good stuff, all around, at this site โ many thanks for it!
Gartman is not useless, he’s a great contrary indicator. So at least a very short term decline is probably imminent (if so, I’ll buy it).
Interesting point, Matthew!
But he is absolutely shameless. Thickest skin I have ever seen.
Professional shills need thick skin.
Gartman is usually late to the party missing the easy early gains. Correction time soon.
DITTO ON GARTMAN…………..
He mentioned that a long term support/resistance level 1183 was just sailed straight through. That is a major event and was also unexpected (by everyone). So things have changed and he just mentioned the huge ETF volume spike, which does signal something big going on.
He missed the big rally on the s&p too from around 1820. He had been declaring a bear market starting when it was a great buying opportunity.
I remember when Gartman called the turn and top for gold on CNBC way back when. His comment went something like this:
‘When the fundamentals say the price should be going up and it goes down instead, then something is impacting the price that he doesn’t understand…and when he understand, he advices his clients to get out’.
My bet is he had a good idea what was going on. Wish I would’ve taken that advice instead of trying to catch a falling knife.
So is the bottom in?
I hope so.
My guess is the bottom will be in after the big banks are loaded up and ready to move it up, …and the bench marks on the charts will signal the turn. As far as the average investor catching the bottom and riding it to the top in any market, most will be lucky to catch 70-80% of a major move because they tend to buy late and get out early. But I’ll take that any day. Btter to bite off a good slice than choke on the whole loaf.
Woo hoo! Time to back up the truck! Thsnks, Gary.
I agree with Gary’s potential scenarios but still sold a pile of GDXJ calls today (for 200-300% gains) due to the big gap up this morning. I still have some out-of-the-money calls and will replace the ones I sold if GDXJ fills today’s gap. I still have plenty of shares/warrants etc. if the market continues higher.
If the break of 1180 is a takedown, which I believe it is, it is a failure since it only brought the price 45 dollar below the previous low. And it stayed for very short time. The previous attempt usually brings over 200 dollar down draft. I think the downside risk for gold is low and it reached a rubber wall. There are too much physical buying down there.
In my opinion, the 15 month support at 1180 was broken so that big money could get supply —it was not so much about getting a better price. What a pain it must be to have billions!
You might be right. But it is illegal. Even billionaire should be afraid to do it.
Nothing is illegal for a certain “special” bunch.
Depends on your definition, Matthew!
GS will give you a prediction which is never reached. You will wait forever and thank them for a very close call.
Al you are referring to Chartster and his big drop to $500 or so followed by a near vertical rise back to $1200
He never offered one shred of evidence to support his opinion.
Not technical, not fundemental, not even conspiracy.
I SAID 1212.80 WAS THE BOTTOM.
EVERYTHING BELOW THAT FOR THE SHORT TIME IT WAS WAS A MANUFACTURED BEAR TRAP.
We are now only $15 off that call.
Sardines, Seals and Sharks playing out perfectly
Yes I am referring to him The Greater!
I was buying yrs ago at the turn of the century…..and I want to increase my present allocation, but something inside me tells me something could be rotten in Denmark. Don’t know why. Hope that gut feeling is wrong. One of the stocks I hold is going off towards the moon today…..and I can’t really figure out exactly why. Glad its going up but there is nothing fundamentally behind it right now that says it should go. This is one of those times that I am seriously conflicted on exactly what to do, and quite frankly that doesn’t happen very often!!
Thanks Gary for your call…. I respect your opinion and am interested to see what Doc and others think. Right now I have to come to grips with the conflict that is keeping me on the fence.
I am with you, in the short term, Ron.
I think that we will know sooner rather than later what the ultimate, at least short to mid term, direction is.
Exactly!! Thanks Al for your professionalism & common sense.
If we did a poll of gold bugs that thought the bottom was in now, my guess is that it would be 80% bottom is in – to 20% we still have not seen bottom.
And that is why the mining stocks are going up IMO.
The commercials have not gotten in yet, cause they know something….
I am not goldbug so I would say I don’t know. I still have cash.
I agree with Doc’s comments yesterday about the Russel 2000. It looks worthy of some spec shorts to me and turned bearish on the 60 minute chart about two weeks ago. Here’s a bigger picture look…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RUT&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01381584876&a=372158902
FED might be pre-occupied with supporting large caps or the investors are moving from small caps to large caps. This is opposite to the claim US is the best house in the bad neihborhood. Russel is more domestic than S&P and DOW. I guess another round of QE is waiting after Japan dose in no longer potent and if Europe refuse to QE. I just moved some my left over money to large cap as a hedge for my gold position. I wish I lose that money so my gold can go up.
Good points. I think a top is forming, even if it is not THE top. The way to hedge gold is with GLD puts, in my opinion.
Also dem lost the election means the real economy sucks
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Gary,
I always enjoy your commentary and take on markets. Always makes me think.
James,
Lighten up a little, eh?
Chartster
I’m light, except for gold
The flop is over, the turn is over. All thats left is the river
And the commercials are holding a ” royal flush ”
Starts tonight or the 25th. ETA bottom, the 30th.
My sales of certain GDXJ calls are the ONLY trades so far today despite the big gains and the big gap up. This tells me that there is more upside since there is little chance that I alone made the best decision.
$600 gold by the 30th?
By the 28th or Dec 1st is my best educated guess. It is real soon though. Finally.. We took a little two or three week detour.
I have a hard time predicting when we get this close cause my cycle theory is big picture. I have to rely on ” in the know ” relationships and people that are much better than I regarding technical charting.
Thanks. That would be an inverted Bo Polny move!
I will synchronize my watch
The 30th interesting day.
When you date two sisters you eventually have to make a choice.
Both may be pretty, both may be nice, both may be smart.
You like them both and wish you could have both.
But if you are going to marry one you have to choose.
You can’t have both.
It’s the same with markets.
The “house” be it the track, the casino, the market makers – they have all the grinding.
You can’t have grinding, it’s taken.
All thats left is speculate.
You can’t hope to grind back from the house.
They do all the grinding, you need to do the speculating.
The house has the grinding, it’s taken.
Just like the two sisters – it’s one or the other, but not both.
Grinding is taken.
Choose speculating, or no play.
That’s been my livelihood my whole life.
Pittsburgh Phil
Pittsburgh Phil’s “Maxims” is one of my favorite books. I read that book 2-3 times a year, every year.
;-(
I am not posting to defend Gary-however, especially in metals and especially for short term traders, its virtually impossible to call a bottom.
Same thing for the market in general. Whens the top? Or do they hyperinflate? If our US markets have a market cap of 25 trillion–what effect did 5 tril of buybacks have? coupled with 1% money.
Lots of moving pieces and you have to look long term.
I know the headache I have by trying to figure this out–where is Gary.
what he is doing is trading and jumping out when he has to and jump in where he has to
Brinkmanship is a very dangerous policy, you can never second guess an opponent or the market; if you aren’t worried about what Putin has up his sleeve, read this: yohttp://www.voltairenet.org/article185860.html
Here is the link. http://www.voltairenet.org/article185860.html
Glad to see you back DT………………………J………….
Excellent interview guys….the following are comments addressed to nobody in particular :).
People keep saying gold isn’t moving that much but that is only against the US dollar. Against other currencies it is rising strongly. If some people who live in Japan are looking to sell Yen or JGBs and go somewhere else, I think some of them will put some money in to gold. Same thing for the Euro. So we have gold AND the USD going up together. Thinking of gold only in USD is ignoring what is happening in the rest of the world. Overall, gold is going up and up strongly.
we need to close above 1240
People are fogetting that Friday is when options on gold futures stop trading at the close. There are essentially two very large leveraged bets in the derivatives market in gold prices, one betting on a correction in gold prices, one betting on a permanent bear market. The one betting on correction has won out.
That would indicate higher prices before both derivatives close in December.
Fran,
What would happen if gold tumbles? Maybe all the vapor paper get shredded. Is there a gap from Friday to the first of December ? Hmmm
Very good point though Fran!
Fran,
Could you elaborate please? I really would like to know that angle.
Thank you
The one that was betting long could be net net due to strike price not being met.
Same thing with shorty
The fundamentals in gold could not be more positive, a very happy drawing of smiley faces a daffodils with rosy cheeks, huge mascara and sun-shiny faces. I would be looking for negative nominal rates as we have seen in Europe and Japan, coming December.
Ok Fran, thank you. I kinda feel all warm and fuzzy about the situation now.
I pay A LOT OF MONEY for my charting, here’s an example:
fran six has been in his six pack…………………..but, great charts think alike…….
oh,,,,funny charts…………..great prints………….
Makes sense now. GR8 chart!!
Hello all & Gary,
What is making me a touch uncomfortable at this juncture is that including today, a bunch, and I mean A BUNCH of PM stocks are already up 50% from their lows 2 weeks ago… That’s a lot in a very short period of time.
I’ve added in the last decline so nothing to complain about, but I just HOPE, HOPE, HOPE (and remember: “hope” is not a strategy) that Avi GIlburt is right and we make a lower low in gold within the very next few weeks. Hopefully the stocks will retrace again, and I’ll get some more.
What I don’t understand about Gary’s cycles is that a few weeks back, we were told that gold would make a lower low in the summer next year. This would mark the bottom of a multiyear cycle not only in gold but in other commodities. How come that now, about 8 months ahead of summer 2015 we can forget about this ?
I understand that a daily cycle can stretch a few days… but what was supposed to be a multi-year cycle bottom for the commodities and gold is now coming, at least for gold, 8 mths in advance ? Is this possible? Are there any historical precedents ?
If anyone or Gary has any light for me, I’d appreciate a lot.
Best to all,
LPG
LPG, our mortals cannot predict the future. If you feel gold will go up, average down. If you feel it is going down from here, short it. There is no safeway to play it. Beining too calculative is one way of missing opportunities.
Cheers Lawrence. ๐
LPG,
I can tell you that gold is not going to make a lower low in the next few weeks. Even if this is only a bear market counter trend rally it’s still going to last for 5-8 weeks before topping. The miners can rally a long way in that amount of time.
I’ll also say that it is always a mistake to sit on the sidelines and hope for a pullback early in a new intermediate cycle. Very often you don’t get one and the market just takes off and leaves everyone behind.
Look at all the traders that have been trying to call a top or correction in the stock market over the last 4 weeks. All they did was manage to get left behind. Don’t make that same mistake with gold. It may or may not give us a correction but don’t bank on it because it often doesn’t happen as an asset moves out of an intermediate degree bottom.
Thank you for your input Gary. Appreciated.
Best to you,
LPG
Wisdom is the acquired use of knowledge….it is learned over time, through life experiences…..it’s not something you get from a book. You have to learn it by using the knowledge you have.
Gary is as good as anyone I’ve seen…. timing…. cycle bottoms in gold. NICE of him to share that wisdom.
Congrats to Al on having a non bias site for metal investors…I was surprised to see silver flat on a good day for GDXJ…I guess Silver will move when oil bottoms?
You’ve made some nice calls at times Gary,
But calling this the bottom of the gold bear market won’t go down as one of them imo.
Cheers.
Make no mistake there is no indication yet that we have a final bear market bottom. To make that call I will have to see gold make a higher intermediate high. If it doesn’t do that then we can expect another lower low next summer.
That being said, what we just saw is very often how major trends reverse. By that I mean a bear trap stop run below a major technical support zone that fails to deliver any follow through, and is quickly reversed. That very often means that smart money knows something we don’t and they just took big positions and that’s why the market didn’t continue down.
I think the annihilation phase in gold is yet to come Gary,
It may take many, many months yet to reach a final bottom?
Personally, your summer call for a final low seems far more likely to me than a final bear market bottom in gold now.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
Cheers.
Noted too.
Cheers Gary.
LPG
nobody calls the bottom. not even billionare traders.
oh please.
I know one thing i’d like to get lower prices tomorrow if possible. I want to dip in again at lower prices but im not sure mr market well let us. We need a breather or pull back here as many have been left behind. Id like to see a pull back and gold down to 1183 for a day or two and then explode higher.
I’d like GDXJ to fill today’s gap so I can buy more calls sooner rather than later. It does seem like it just wants to go higher. Maybe something like this…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=11&id=p13886441476&a=376337753
Do you trade full time Matthew ?
Sadly, yes. Just kidding about the sadly, I do enjoy it.
lol
Matt, my blood pressure is to high. I tell you after a day’s work nothing like working up a sweat. I rarely do more then 2-3 trades a day. Then go weeks without a trade and sometimes months lol..
Matthew,
If I had to trade the markets full time…..
Well, I reckon I’d be living in my own rubber room at the funny farm by now.
That’s one beautiful painting i would put money on ๐
No confirmation yet but Aussie gold bounced off its June 2013 low…..perhaps a DB in place? Is Aussie gold a good indicator a bottom is in?
That GDXJ chart would work for me.
Glen, i have visted the GOLD TENT site recently. The site has a lot of very commited bears trading in JDUST.
This site is a lot more positive !
Way, way too positive for it to be a final bottom for gold imo….
When Big Al’s podcasts are at their lowest ever download levels,
When the positive gold comments on here are at tumbleweed levels,
When Rev actually stops looking & finally buys a house he likes,
When Irish Tony sells all his silver & buys screams buy gold instead,
When J the long stops yelling “wheres the shorts” when gold has a little pop up,
When Birdman returns to the forum after single handedly conquering the ebola virus in Africa,
When Matthew only links to gold charts with an arrow pointing downward,
When Big Al stops saying “I just don’t see it” on other people’s projected down moves in the gold price,
…..& finally….when each & everyone of us receive an invitation to Cory’s wedding.
Well then…..& only then will the bottom be in for gold..
Anyhoo….I’m off for another beer or three ๐
Good print Skeeta……..enjoyed……………..jootb.
Biggus,
I like the balance ๐
Did Gary mention what day we are into the cycle?
It would be day 8 according to him if today can turnaround.
Only just listened to this – Wednesday lunchtime in the UK – and just wanted to say what a frank and brave call Gary. None of that sitting on the fence that so many commentators do. Well done for having what it takes to say it how you see it.
Well said skeeta.
Great call yesterday Gary and great advice.
Come on Al lets call it the way it is
First Dennis Gsrtman changes his mind more times than I change my underwear.
He is totally useless. Everyone knows this.
CNBC calls him in now and then to spew some crap and then he is wheeled off.
Now once again GARY is flip flopping.
What happened to the. $1000 call and the bottom is on next summer.
I know, I know circumstances have changed.
Here we go again.
And what happened to thst they will keep oil down until after the election call?
OIL IS STILL GOING LOWER.
I SAID TH TURN WAS IN TWO FRIDAYS AGO IN GOLD.
THE BIG $35 up move on no news.
Sardines,Seals and Sharks.
Don’t wait for GARY to get on board. He might flip flop again