The global impact on gold and oil prices
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I tree what you mean, but just leaf us alone, Matthew. ~Brian
Sorry, I should remain stumped and not attempt to branch out. That’s where this stems from you know.
Fractals. I just wanted to type that word. Proceed. ~ Brian
Mandelbrot.
Al, you never responded to this post from yesterday
Care to take a stab?
On December 2, 2014 at 9:35 pm,
James (the lesser) says:
Al you made a whopper of a statement today I think requires an explanation
You said if not for geo political issues gold would be a lot lower.
For years you’ve been a gold bull because of your fundamentals
Now you do a complete about face
I think you have an awful lot of explaining to do
Reply to this comment
I consider geopolitical reasons to be in the same category as fundamental reasons.
James, I have two main categories in my investment philosophy.
One is technicals which I am learning, but I am certainly far from being an expert.
The second is fundamentals and I consider geopolitical factors to be in that category. I have stated that on the Show many times over the years.
Sorry, I did not see your comment on the 2nd. We are so busy it is hard to get to everything.
Best
GDXJ has been dealing with Fibonacci resistance for hours. I think this resolves higher.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p70456554255&a=378247309
Still can’t pass 38.2 fib today 🙁
“felicitous” Thanks Rick I just leaned a new word.
Rick is edumacated, that’s for sure.
I agree. It sure looks to me that gold and USD is going up together. Why wouldn’t it when the yen and Euro continue to break down? It will only take a small percentage of the money managers to chose gold over the USD for this to happen.
Pretty good point, Paul W
Al, you are classifying geo political issues in with your fundamentals, and that is reasonable and what most people do.
However you said absent of geopolitical issues gold would be a lot lower.
So basically that is saying either a) the rest of the fundamentals for gold are terrible or b) you’re only fundamental is geopolitical. I doubt it’s”b” so why would you make a statement like that?
What about debt, QE, currency debasement … Aren’t these part of your fundamentals ?
Aren’t these fundamentals bullish for gold?
Still confused how you could make a statement like this
My reasoning is quite simple.
First of all, the average American or European is drinking the kool aid flavored with “happy days are here again.”
The one thing that I feel is keeping people somewhat in gold is geopolitical events exemplified by such things as (to beat a dead horse) Ukraine, events in Europe, a bit of a chaotic situation in the U.S., and the Middle East.
I maintain that yes the fundamentals you bring out are positive for gold but they are not a strong consideration for most people who are not nearly as well informed as most of us are.
Everyone does; however, realize that the geopolitical issues which are all over the media do present a serious danger.
Maybe that might seem a bit simplistic, but it is my current feeling.
We will elaborate more shortly in a Daily Editorial with Roger Wiegand.
I can accept that.
Roger Wiegand! oh no not again!
We will be watching closely!
Just read the thread between Al and James.
Al,” two main catagories” one of which your just learning doesn’t sound too solid to me.
“Fundimentals” to me, is simply supply and demand, we can look at whatever influences to supply and demand but that’s all “fundimentals” is.
This has been a huge point I have made repeatedly for about the last 3 years, all demand has been met, in fact, there has been a heck of a lot more supply than demand, thus, down the price went.
Pretty simple.
Some day, demand should be greater than supply and back up it will go.
95% of economics is common sense.
Fundimentals = supply and demand.
Sure, but “demand” and what drives or does not drive it is exactly what I am talking about.
I know Al, that’s why I mentioned it, its all noise, like oil recently, more oil produced than being used. Simple, isis selling it doesn’t matter, nor does Iran bombing isis, nor does China moving to protect Saudi Arabia, what matters is there is more oil produced than is being used.
Its all noise. fundimentals is all supply and demand.
Geopolitics etc might make somebody sound like they have some info, but its noise, what matters is supply and demand.
Not that it matters, to each his own.
bb,
I think that we both have a good point.
Whole bunch of different ways to look at a picture. And, believe me, I am not rationalizing!
Best
It’s interesting that embedded in Rick’s 1137.50 is the golden angle in phyllotaxis (137.5 degrees).
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-3040.2004.01185.x/pdf