Is gold signaling a coming top in the U.S. dollar?
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Gary,
I continue to be in complete agreement, the bottom is in for gold.
People need to get in now.
However I think there is a case to be made that the gold/$ and gold/oil links are decoupled.
Gold and the $ can rise together
Gold can rise in spite of oil.
If the $ gets too high or if oil gets too low there will be massive intervention, ie QE
I am not disagreeing. I simply prefer a bit more wait and see. That is for me only.
Al you have little bit of time but when not if short covering occurs you the up gaps will make your heart skip few beats. So patience is good until it’s not. Not trying to convince you but i’ve this before more then few times.
I don’t like today’s price action in gold though.
We need to see more
Your two posts appear to contradict yourself James?
I agree. Gold and USD are definitely going higher together. As long as Japan and Euroland are imploding, I think it will continue. If the fed ever decides to devalue the USD, gold will break away and be in turbo drive.
Look at virtually every stock market in the world. Nothing is imploding. On the contrary the global stock markets are saying that the global economy is already recovering.
The G/S ratio will signal a definitive direction IMHO. Gold and US$ moving in tandem has been a long time coming.
Second chart of the day
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2014/12/chart-day-52.html
BobUk I don’t think they contradict at all.
For gold to continue upwards I always like to see certain price action, not nesassarily price, but action…late day strength, closing at high, regaining all of previous day’s losses …
I didnt like that it took out 1212.80.and all of yesterday’s losses and gave up gains.
I look at price each day and call it as I see it.
Anyway the day is not over and it could still come back to close at highs
Gold is hanging up there. Not looking like it will close at the high of the day but only a couple dollars off.
While price action and price are different beasts they are still related in many ways. I understand what you are saying though James from the day to day perspective.
With 2 trading days left this week if gold can close higher than last weeks close that is a good sign and better than I thought I would… That said there is a battle going on between the bulls and the bears.
gold struggling at the 1200 level. miners have been weaker than gold the past few months. they will need a catalyst to put in a bottom…maybe the dollar, maybe oil bottoming.
I don’t see oil bottoming short of some major global crisis. The Saudis have obviously decided that it is in their best interests to crush Russia and probably also US shale – they won’t blink this early in the game IMPO.
I do agree with you BobUK
Thanks to Gary, and several other smart people here, noting yday that gold and gold miners might whipsaw for awhile, that reminded me to try to capitalize on it. I noted the last time we had whipsaw but failed to take advantage then. So I bought jnug at 3.40 just before close yday and sold it at 4.01 couple hours into trading this AM. Nice 18 % gain. So I guess a down day tomorrow? Up down up down? I sold my GDX in case. Plus jobs day Friday. In my experience, it is better for me to be on sideline with gold investments on jobs days and also Fed days
Gary… do you happen to notice GDX got slammed today at the close? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-03/another-day-another-epic-goldminer-slamdown
Is this an attempt to contain the intermediate bottom force?
Gary, how did this $USD predicted top & plunge work out? Not so good, eh big guy?
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2014/12/chart-day-52.html#comments
If I wanted to search your website for other such predictions gone completely astray, I’d come up with far more misses than hits, Mr “I called that last 3 intermediate tops, perfectly”
Chart of the day
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2014/12/chart-day-51.html