Will the gold market ramp up tomorrow?
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
I will give IRISH SOME CREDIT…………….he is the LONG SILVER MAN……..
Hi Jerry…..That’s why I sold some gold at GSR 75 & bought some more silver , I also think silver hit a bottom then….Hopefully the BOYS have got bored bashing it (silver)
I started buying at $10…With a time scale of holding for 10 years , yes I have seen it go to near $50..& back down to $14 but I am not the least bit worried, I just keep SAVING in silver……I hate the banks & all they stand for. Therefore I will not allow them to make money off my labour.
I am with you on the silver….remember, I have silver at $1, been a believer for over 50 years………………
I too have some really inexpensive silver! Thanks Mom!
I earned mine by delivering papers……….no momma’s boy here……………..lol
Congrats Irishtony.
I like the mindset.
Best to you,
LPG
IRISH……………Sinclair, has put out another warning today…………..GOTS, get out of the system, you are right on cue for your advice…………….cheers………….j……….
HERE TO HEAR
Sounds good, but everywhere I read or listen, everybody is looking for one more low in gold after some type of terminal rally in here.
I agree! Its pretty much everywhere its going down again.
that only confirms ……not everyone can be correct……………and who is everybody…..lol
I hope Avi is wrong about the new low – my pain threshold is reached!
Tim,
1) you are now mentally prepared for the POTENTIAL pain assuming the new low comes… so that should ease the pain when it comes
2) IF this new low comes and IF this is the final one, then this is the end of the pain.
Bottom line: you should feel relieved. 🙂 And don’t forget: you are stronger than what you think. 🙂
Best,
LPG
“When going through hell, keep walking”
If you walk fast enough your feet will not get burned!
Feet don’t fail me! Stephan Fetchit!
Your pain threshold has to be exceeded in order for bottom to occur NOT BE REACHED, and that is where the issue lies. It will take COT reaching extremes and that’s not happening yet.
Sounds good to me too. I have the Dollar and Euro reversing for early 2015 so gold should benefit nicely as the dollar starts to fall back again and the euro begin to rise. I also agree with Avi that silver has seen its final bottom. That was it….we are done and it is now a buy again. Meanwhile, I am not anticipating any new lows for gold if the dollar falls as I anticipate. January should be fairly exciting for metals.
That’s not what he said. He is still targeting lower lows for silver at 12.75 and 13.25
Must be my mistake. I thought I heard him say the bottom was in. No matter….the bottom has been seen (that is me talking, not Avi).
By the way, I am waiting for the Euro to put in a double bottom before December is finished. We should see GDX and GDXJ hit their final lows during this time and then start heading in a direction that will make the bulls feel warm and fuzzy once again.
For what it is worth, I started learning about technicals recently. Heck man, I even know what a double bottom is!
You must be dating twin brunette sisters!
Bird,
Avi said it looks like silver put in a final bottom but he is looking for the 12 are for a final low. The only thing I don’t get as a trader is that if he went all in for long term at the 1137 region why would he do that if he is expecting another low? Could it be he is “Hoping for another low”?
Bird also is your 968 gold off the table?
Do you believe the final low in gold is in place?
Thanks as always bird as your thought are well taken.
Yes, 968 is off the table. It is improbable at this stage so I have abandoned that target.
Thanks for being a gentlemen and stating that. With that being said is there a possible double bottom or lower target from the 1137? or is that 1137 going to hold.
My focus is actually on what the dollar/euro trade is doing as that is what I key off in determining the turn. But it is coming soon and I feel pretty optimistic about 2015 where precious metals are concerned.
Bird,
Thanks and hope all is well over there.
Many thanks Glen. It feels pretty good lately. I have come to enjoy the frequent disconnections to tell the truth. Gives me a reason to get out of the house and get some exercise. And who really hates candlelight dinners or the TV being silenced by the power flickering off? I kind of like the sound of dead silence once in awhile.
Im kinda like that myself. Reserved,quite and enjoy great outdoors.
Glenfidish,
Please don’t use the word gentleman in this context!
Yeah Glen, don’t you know me yet!
GOOD BYE…………….968……………….
Yes Jerry…it is so-long and goodbye to my sub thousand friend. Time to move on!
up, up and away………………………hold steady…….there will plenty of bumps, with the cabal not wanting to give up on their control……………..j…………..
He has made 40% since the November bottom, and will hedge from this level. Don’t need to wait for a bottom to buy.
Agreed Aida.
Waiting for a bottom to buy is sometimes like waiting for Godot…while a bottom is always something that we recognize/confirm in hindsight.
Best,
LPG
+1 with Birdman.
On another angle, I am also looking forward for US companies reporting results beginning of January… If we have still sky high market and results + forward comment are dull… I think something will crack.
Just my 2cts…
Best to all, GL investing/trading.
LPG
Thanks for your comments LPG – good stuff! 🙂
You are most welcome Tim.
A last one if I may:
IF you have cash that you are eager/willing to invest in these PM markets, start looking at where you will deploy it IN CASE this new lower low in gold hits.
Start making your own little plan…and be ready to pull the trigger/execute the plan if this lower low occurs.
IMHO, when one is prepared, one acts rationally as opposed to emotionally and increases one’s chances of success.
GL to all, and best to you,
LPG
We have spent a fair amount of time talking with LPG recently. He is definitely a good guy! Very bright also!
Just wanted to say I really appreciate this forum – trading and investing can be a lonely business – especially in the precious metals sector which hardly anyone is interested in – everyone is obsessed with property here in the UK – on a side issue I’ve found it annoying that property speculators have been rewarded due to crazy low interest rates and cheap money at the expense of savers – rant over!
And what pisses me off even more is that the prudent saver will probably be asked to bail out these individuals once the house of cards come tumbling down. Anyhow Tim, cheer up. We’ll have our day in the winning circle as well….. I was watching John Hughes’ “Uncle Buck” yesterday… here is a scene that will definitely put a smile on your face. This is John Candy at his comedic best: http://www.anyclip.com/movies/uncle-buck/washing-machine/
That was one great movie, Chris!
Tim,
Very successful investing is a lonely road as contrarians are always singled out, and often mocked as they go agains the crowd/the prevailing belief of the time.
Following the trend of the crowd is always popular and make one feel that one is in good company. However, no one has EVER been extremely successful in investing
by doing what everyone else is doing. But the opposite is true.
Don’t forget: when you are with yourself, you are always in good company.
Best to you and GL investing.
LPG
“When going through hell, keep going”
I love this guy!
Grateful for adding Avi G. to the editorials
A big win for everyone, Alek!
been reading his weeklies on Seeking Alpha
I do not believe that silver will make a new low. It looks pretty good here (note that I was as generous to the bears as I could be when drawing that downtrend line):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p78918671856&a=378548449&listNum=1
I happen to agree, Matthew. We have seen silvers bottom.
ditto,,,,,,,,,,,,my gosh……………..three of a kind………………………..lol
I gotta tell you to have matt,Bird and if only jj was here all on the same gravy train then I would argue against anyone telling me another low is coming.
Crazy world isn’t it? My chronic gold bearishness was starting to get me down actually. But things have changed. Today Chris Temple mentioned sovereign defaults as a 2015 risk and he is correct. There are big problems on the horizon again in that regard and if we do see bond defaults (we will) there will be renewed interest in precious metals as risk aversion increases. I now believe we have finally arrived at the cusp of a change in metals sentiments although it will probably begin slowly and leave the majority behind as usual.
ditto…….on ….leave the majority behind…………
This is one is mostly for Matt and BIrd but you can all jump in and give an opinion please.
What really strikes me is that silver was not only able to come down to the 2007/2008/2009 breakout top but even get down to the 2004/2005/2006 top somewhat.
Gold has failed on that end to get down and touch the 2007/2008/2009 top yet alone exceed it like silver did.
This really baffles me. What do you guys think? It is the reason why 1050 at the very least and 12/13 silver would hit that appetite.
Back in 2011 it was silver that lead gold and warned us the top was in. If you go back and look at that chart today the parabolic move in silver is crystal clear yet amazingly at the time a lot of people just refused to believe it.
Anyway, silver peaked and popped in the first half of 2011 but gold did not follow suit until months later and its own move was nowhere near as dramatic as silvers. So much so that most people remained convinced that gold had not in fact peaked at all.
Silver often leads gold though. It is my belief that is again the case with the bottom as it was with the top and so I have lost interest in the idea of any more major downside moves in gold. If anything this will just be a consolidation period but my expectation is now a long move trending generally upwards.
The drama in silver is foreshadowing a trend change in gold in my view.
Excellent points. Its great to have you back buddy!
Forget the politeness and “great to have you back” comments! Bird will now want to get paid. (As if we were!)
Not a chance Al. I am not on the clock. I just enjoy throwing in my two bits and seeing if I can stay one step ahead of what the market is going to do next. I guess that is what we are all doing here…..trying to read the future before it comes to pass. It is what separates most of us from the rest of the world. “They” are almost always reactive and behind the curve. In the old days guys like us might have been called diviners, seers or witch doctors as we peered off into the unknown and tried to warn of what might come to be. And just like in the old days we are as likely to be pilloried, ridiculed or burned at the stake! For most, there is no coin in it. Only the satisfaction from knowing you got it right and did not go off the cliff with the rest of the herd.
Gold is the safer, more liquid asset that is far less correlated to the economy, and, therefore, to debt. It does its best, in real terms, in a “risk-off” environment. When taking more risk makes sense, safer assets like gold underperform.
Silver tends to move faster and farther than gold once there’s a trend. It went up 210% vs gold coming out of the 2008 low but fell 64% vs gold from there. I always say that silver occupies the first step out on the risk curve. If one wants leverage to the gold price, the safest way to get it is to buy silver.
Since the secular bull market got going in August, 2000, gold has had a habit of not correcting quite as far as people expect it to. There’s always a bid because some big money knows how to see through governments’ smoke screens (interventions using paper money, policy, etc). It’s hard to believe that gold is still up 233% vs the S&P 500 since August 2000. In 2011, it was up 842%.
Matt,
I say to you the same as i said to bird, great to have you here everyday!
Directed at Matt, that is okay!
Hey, you are breaking my heart!
Thanks for your advice LPG – your experience is appreciated…
Peter Brandt says the bottom is in for silver – and he’s been bearish all the way until now -http://peterlbrandt.com/six-reasons-silver-probably-bottomed/
he has been watching our post………………lol…..
Peter Brandt was one of jj’s guru’s I believe.
I loved that line he used….congratulations if you have survived the bear market thus far. Kind of amusing. Most did not survive of course. A lot of stackers got hung out to dry and have long since ceased dropping by forums like this.
who is Peter B’s guru………………………….
J I was just saying that JJ mentioned him a few times. I have never heard off him til then. I now have him marked on my list as I have respect for many of jj’s call believe it or not. I know when I see talent. To bad he lets his emotions get the better of him.
ditto……………….
Meanwhile, your politicians are busy ripping you off: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-11/house-votes-11-trillion-cromnibus-bill-live-webcast#comments
Like that is really news……………………..lol……….
.News, there are 38 states going together to put in a bill that is calling for TERM LIMITS….it is being hosted by INDIANA.
Time is up for these moron political hacks……………..the INDIANS ARE RESTLESS.
Can Avi provide his prices for gold in spot/futures rather than GLD please?
He really like to off gld..lol. Its his go to.
Pam B,
I cannot speak on behalf of Avi… but personally, I use c.10.4 as the ratio to convert GLD prices into spot gold – this ratio has been fairly stable over the past few months.
Best and GL investing/trading.
LPG
Thanks for sharing that LPG.
Avi is always talking gold future targets in GLD
Will talk with him, but obviously they all go hand in hand.
I really don’t understand why all people say that the miners are totally lagging.
When I look at Iamgold, Lake Shore Gold, Newmont Mining, Fresnillo, Stillwater Mining, Pan American Silver, Fortuna Silver, Hecla Mining, Barrick Gold, Franco Nevada, Silvercrest, Oceana Gold , B2 Gold, Claude Resources, Avino Silver & Gold…and that are the first that come to my mind…I see them all up from their recent lows, in some cases significantly. Unfortunately one that I am in, Endeavor Silver, is going even lower from last Friday. Should have bought Stillwater, too bad. Well, what I think is that it really has to do with tax loss selling season and that sentiment is just so bad in individual cases that some miners get to irrationally low levels. What someone here on the forum also says is that in some companies’ stocks the bottoming process is not really over. Frankly, too me it looks a bit like last year around this time. Also there is a lot of crash-talk going on in the financial community. In my opinion this also contributes a lot to it. Also You have to mention that at current gold and silver prices most companies still operate at a loss, and as long as for the institutions the light at the end of the tunnel is so far away they might rather buy other stuff, like retailers do as well. Gary already mentioned it; they might all think that the conventional stock market is just a bit safer in the near term. Finally…not all cycles are the same. Thanks for all the free information to… Al, Cory, the Musketeers and the guests.
Nic good points. Iamgold has been on fire and today’s volume is enormous. My biggest holder 🙂
Congratulations Glen. Why didn’t you sell half the position when you got a 50 % or so and buy a lagging stock? Don’t want to push it, but Endeavor Silver looks very undervalued to me right now and is even lower from last Friday where I bought it.
Nic, I think they believe the miners are lagging is because only some issues made new minor highs in the November cycle. For example NEM did, but GG did not, etc. SWC obviously is leading. I believe it is a process and as long as they are NOT making new intermediate lows, we are fine.
Cheers
Miners are lagging in the Indices is what Gary’s saying, if i’m not mistaken. If someone were to create an index of clean balance sheet winners then we’d be up Miners. Tax loss selling may be affecting the indices as the balance sheet laggards are being dumped. Just a thought.
I think so, too. Becuase at the same time when Endeavor hit some lows, Fortuna hit some highs due to its better strategy and results in Q3. Both companies look pretty similar to me but have much different success.
good stuff………..both you guys…………………………………..j
Report out today that Russia has been selling gold. I sent a comment last week to see if anyone get thought to desperate governments selling gold to raise cash. You can find report on BusinessInsider.com.
China , Belgium, Netherlands, France, Germany, Brazil, ………would most likely sweep it into their treasury………………….jmho……………thanks for sharing…………j.
Belgium, probably on advice from Franky or is it James?
With gold so cheap, they will not get too much out of it. Not in a significant way to help them. They should secure loan with their gold as collateral or securitly sell to other central banks which have money. Only case so far central banks sell gold is to suppress the price.
Thanks Chico!
Its starting to get very lonely over here at the Gold Bear campsite,
Lots have turned Bullish and wandered off.
……I’ll be sitting by the fire talking to myself soon…LOL.
Skeeta,
lol, leave space for me and a glass of Opus red or Cakebread nappa valey as I may show up with my trading portfolio. But of course not until we break that 1240 region. I smell it 🙂
You do have good taste Glenfidish!
Al,
Your way ahead of me on taste I have lots to Learn. I gotta tell ya the first time I tried the nappas I was hooked. Sure hits the pocket.
Make some Smores!
Sorry Skeeta….I just don’t feel the inspiration about more declines anymore. Not after all the bloodbaths that already happened for three years and counting. Like I keep blithering about, with gold rising in most currencies now there is change in the wind.
Too many Bulls in gold imo (still).
We are yet to see the full deflation in many commodities (gold included)
Just as we are yet to see the final strength of the $US….we ain’t seen nothing yet in that regard.
Maybe I’m on my lonesome ?
But hands up guys !!!!
Who ?…..like me….says we are still going to breach sub $1000 gold ?
Its either put up or shut up.
One side will be wrong….I do not believe that will be my side.
Cheers.
Hmmm, 1,240 seems tough to break right now.
I do respect Avi and Gary. I just don’t see breaking 1,240 before the wash.
I can see a retest of 1210 to as low as 1180 before 1240 is broken, but I still wouldn’t be surprised if gold just goes higher from here.
Gold is at an important juncture.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=30&id=p47684386578&a=367847899&listNum=1
ditto…..on the important juncture……………..
Matt,
Out of 100% what are the chances of the weekly gaps left recently in hui/xau and miners being filled? Realistically there not far down.
Glen, there are no HUI or XAU weekly gaps right now. There are no $GDM/GDX gaps either.
So, 100% 🙂
$SPTGD, SGDM, GDXJ, GLDX, SIL and SILJ also have no weekly gaps.
Matt,
sorry i meant there are miners that have a gap from november 28 close and december 1st open. Many of them. Iamgold included,sprott,newgold,tanzania etc etc.. Lot of them.
By the way gdxj looks like a puking chart even on a weekly. What do you see there?
Glen, the gap for IAG is one cent and NGD’s is seven. Still, I think there’s a fair chance that they will get filled (maybe 73% 😉 ). The gaps that seem a lot less likely to get filled are the daily ones of a month earlier. It all depends on what gold does. It looks like it’s going higher but maybe it will take a quick dip to 1210-1205 or so before doing so. This would allow the miners to take another quick dip and possibly fill some gaps. If the good companies make a double bottom, the ETFs will go to new lows.
Its exactly how i feel. Good to know your thinking along the same lines 🙂
Thanks
Chartster,
What if your wash never comes? Do you have any type of position?
We still will see the wash
It’s not a maybe, it’s coming
Many thanks LPG
Just report predicted changes in percentages, FFS ~ Brian
silver low was hit, just as I said….Was this just confirmed by Avi…..DID I HERE THAT CORRECTLY…………I said silver low was hit at $14.10, quick and fast, when everyone was asleep, Except a few………..nite owls……………..jooth