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The many confusing aspects of the Fed meeting and Yellen’s press conference

December 17, 2014

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Discussion
54 Comments
    Dec 17, 2014 17:10 PM

    Off topic – Excellent interview with Craig Roberts. 50% of all 25 year old back home living with their parents….30% of 30 years olds the same.
    http://usawatchdog.com/is-ruble-collapse-act-of-war-paul-craig-roberts/

      Dec 17, 2014 17:17 PM

      So who will the old folks move in with during the retirement bubble if the kids already got all the spare bedrooms? Sounds to me like the middle age group is getting seriously squeezed here with responsibilities for both their aging parents and their boomerang offspring returning home at the same time.

        THE STORY OF THE WALTONS ………replay…………

          Dec 17, 2014 17:35 PM

          You got it J-Long. That’s almost exactly where it is headed. Especially if Europe is the template for the future and deflation is our final destination for the next years. That will really murder the rental market though if all the family gets back together and moves home to ride it out.

          Dec 17, 2014 17:54 PM

          Good night, John Boy

          Dec 17, 2014 17:02 PM

          That is a good one, The Short!

      Dec 17, 2014 17:56 PM

      Andrew de berry ( rev ) only lovers left ! AL mast sing !

    FED MEETING ……joke………………..

    Dec 17, 2014 17:27 PM

    Don’t know BM. The only good thing longterm maybe is that our currently atomised families will eventually re-connect and take greater responsibility for each other. Can only live in hope…..

      Dec 17, 2014 17:39 PM

      We be back to single wage earner families in no time, Reverend. As I mentioned to J above, if Europe is our template the family home might just get really damned crowded again. Like the old days. I hear those 75% youth unemployment rates are really stressing the parents over there. The kids can’t even afford to leave once they return. And to top it off, you guys have a retirement crisis of your own on the horizon.

      Dec 17, 2014 17:03 PM

      And that, Andrew, is another great comment from you!

    Dec 17, 2014 17:29 PM

    YOU SEE NOTING YET Chris !

    Dec 17, 2014 17:42 PM

    I am watching for the dollar to double top this month and the Euro to double bottom and then reverse higher going into 2015. Precious metals and oil should respond favourably as that happens but it could also mean equities will hit a soft patch for awhile.

    Dec 17, 2014 17:47 PM

    Great commentary, Chris. Looking at a 60 minute chart, it’s interesting that the miners moved just like conventional stocks after the statement.
    I believe that haste makes waste on Fed days.

    Dec 17, 2014 17:56 PM

    That’s the one good aspect, at least for today. Oil and gold both sold off as the US $ rose…but miners, energy stocks and all joined the party with everything else, and finished well.

    Dec 17, 2014 17:11 PM

    The Fed meeting was all about maintaining the status quo, while not letting on they’re contemplating negative rates. All it takes is a small decline in the main indexes for more interest rate declines and negative treasury bill rates. Had they said this during the meeting, then a crash would surely been the result.

    Dec 18, 2014 18:29 AM

    Yellen to tighten next year but no rush equates to don’t worry about a thing despite all hell breaking loose.

      Dec 18, 2014 18:25 AM

      I wonder if it even matters. The collapse of credit that accompanies major bank and sovereign defaults is effectively tightening anyway. It would not matter that official policy dictated zero rates when in practical terms the credit system freezes up. We all talk about this as if the Fed and the worlds other major Central Banks actually have control over the final outcomes. They do not except over the medium run or as long as the financial system itself functions without serious impairment. But just ask yourself what happens if (when) Greece, Spain, Argentina and many other fiscally unsound and heavily indebted nations just cannot pay anymore. Will European bonds still be selling heavily at such discounts or in the small single digits if a key bank topples in Europe? Hardly. Much more likely they will go no bid or be sold off as investors flee and so rates offered will be increased by the issuers themselves. Hell, we don’t even need bond vigilantes in such cases. The desperation of bankrupt nations and their need to attract fresh capital is more than enough to change the trajectory and slope of the curves especially if they hope to emerge from defaults with a chance to borrow again. And we won’t kid ourselves about the risks attendant as any number of defaults in quick succession will almost certainly pressure other weak nations and the banking sector by reducing liquidity and thus leading them into similar defaults which they had never even seriously contemplated. All Europe is so dangerously intertwined with layer upon layer of mutual loans, bailouts, financial supports and bond issue reciprocity that any two or three defaults in the region is virtually guaranteed to take the whole house down in short order once the money stops flowing. The banking sector is at extreme risk. It is thus a certainty that the resulting demands placed on the ECB to print the problem away will end in a major devaluation of the Euro.

    CFS
    Dec 18, 2014 18:03 AM

    OFF Topic:
    About 2 years ago, when I said in this forum that I expected the Marxist Emperor to cosy up to Cuba and lift the trade embargo, I was called stupid. I wonder how folks will feel when, in 2016, Obama gives Cuba millions of dollars in “development aid”.

    Just wondering!

    CFS
    Dec 18, 2014 18:07 AM

    I read in the newspapers that the US has engineered the drop in the ruble.

    I, however, recall that a yeart ago China entered into multi-billion dollar contracts with Russia, which were designated in Yuan and Rubles. Seems to me China benefits from the drop in the Ruble much more than the US.

      Dec 18, 2014 18:01 AM

      Maybe they did engineer a drop in the Ruble. Yesterday we were reading how you could no longer even trade it anymore on some forex platforms. The life blood of a currency cannot be drained away faster than when it ceases to be a marketable commodity readily available to the international community. So we must now question just how much more serious these declines will become as the Ruble descends into regional obscurity. And we will also wonder who indeed will be clamouring to sign currency swap agreements with any countries that have mismanaged their affairs to the extent their money has become shunned globally and depreciated into worthlessness. We certainly won’t pretend Russia has been an innocent bystander with regards to it economic problems as the sanctions imposed by the west came home to bite. They have, after all, invited the consequences of this depreciation by not cooperating with the international community over their expansionist policies in Ukraine.

    Cfs
    Dec 18, 2014 18:16 AM

    Over the weekend, when I commented that Feinstein’s “stupidity” Committee misrepresented the facts, I was called a “DUPE”.
    Perhaps now some of you have read the report and Wall Street Journal article, and found that 95% of the claimed “torture” events were not what normal people would call torture.
    E.g. I do not consider sleep depravation torture.
    I do not con sinder verbal abuse tortue.
    I do not consider being made to strip and wear diapers torture. I do not consider being made to stand necessarily torture.
    Further, Bob Moriarty made the statement bthat Japanese after WWII were hanged for torture. Not sure of the facts about post WWII trials I remained silent, but have spent 3 days researching post WWII trials.
    IN FACT, no Japanese or German was hanged for torture, as far as I could ascertain.
    Sure, convictions were made for torture that ended in death, but it took AT LEAST a death to produce a death penalty verdict!
    I could not even find one person put on trial for simply torture!.
    So no one misunderstands me: I do nopt condone or support torture (as conventionally described), but Feinstein’s committee did a deliberate hatchet job on the CIA, and it was that which I was pointing out.

      Dec 18, 2014 18:19 AM

      My use of “dupe” was for your (or anyone’s) belief in the legitimacy of the war on terror and apparent faith in the MSM. It had nothing to do the report or the sorry Democrats.

      What about what the report left out?
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDQLXZwR4KM

        Dec 18, 2014 18:48 AM

        That is incorrect Matthew (as usual). Your use of the word “dupe” was used as a pejorative to ridicule and minimize what another person had written. In this case that person was CFS who you insulted without provocation. For anyone who did not see Matthews comments then here it is. This is exactly what he wrote…..

        “On December 13, 2014 at 11:43 am,
        Matthew says:

        Bob, CFS is a dupe, in my opinion, not a duper. Maybe you know something I don’t.

        Dec 18, 2014 18:46 PM

        Leave it to our resident sleazy scoundrel to leave out the original comment:
        On December 13, 2014 at 9:42 am,
        Matthew says:
        Going back to your comments the other day in which you stated that no one who visits this site is duped by the “War on Terror,” are you paying attention to the comments above, bb?
        ———————-
        In the comment you chose, I was actually defending CFS. A duper is dishonest while a dupe has been misled. You, BIRD, are BOTH a dupe and a duper.

          Dec 19, 2014 19:23 AM

          “resident sleazy scoundrel” — Matthew

          I remain unimpressed with the fountain of abusive comments you dish out at every turn as you shower this site with ridicule, condescension and insults with such regularity. You are without doubt one of the most the most hostile people I have encountered online and you show a really surprising lack of discipline and control.

          I am sure your ex-wife would agree 😉

            Dec 19, 2014 19:11 AM

            Would you like to bet that I have an ex wife? Just let me know.
            As Bob Moriarty said in October, “You are not just a fool. You are an evil, lying fool.”
            He was also right to call you a “dangerous creep.”

            Dec 19, 2014 19:16 AM

            No wife? I should have suspected. Sorry, I won’t take that bet. Ha Ha Ha!!!!!!

            Dec 19, 2014 19:23 AM

            Of course you won’t the bet, you can’t back-up that mouth of yours.

            Dec 19, 2014 19:57 PM

            There is an emoticon of a little yellow happy face that is puking but I can’t seem to get it to print. Lets just pretend I did though and that is my answer for you.

    Cfs
    Dec 18, 2014 18:21 AM
    Cfs
    Dec 18, 2014 18:26 AM
    Tom
    Dec 18, 2014 18:03 AM

    PUTIN JUST TOLD YOU……..2 years until gold skyrockets and USD collapses

    Dec 18, 2014 18:15 AM

    An article by Steve Angelo says that US has been export large amount of gold to the rest of the world during the last few decades, especially in 2013 and 2014. This export does not even include the withdraw of gold by foreign countries from FED. This might be the reason US refused to audit its gold reserve. I am wondering how much there is left.

    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1418915220.php

    NY SMASHERS AGAIN……………..OVER nite 1220 ……….the ny should be called MFGLOBLE………………………jmho………………….

    SAME OLE ……..BS……..the gold market definitely wants to go higher….jmho………j

    OBERVATION FROM THE STREET…………..I went to the coin shop yesterday to buy silver, ………..how about $3-4 over spot for silver maples…………

      the PAPER MARKET IS A JOKE…………………………………J………

      Dec 18, 2014 18:54 AM

      Silver is selling at 50% over spot where I live in Africa right now and they will not budge on price. They say it is different here when I insist world prices are much, much lower!!!

        A few weeks ago……..KIRBY on an interview at watchdog usa,,,Stated that premiums were that high, and several people on this site said that the guy was crazy…..THANKS BIRD FOR THE INFO……………………..J…………..

          Dec 19, 2014 19:27 AM

          Anytime J. This has come as a surprise to me too. I was hunting around for old junk silver coins and came up almost empty handed. All gone…..but where? Others have clearly picked it all clean long ago and are unwilling to part with the stuff at current lower prices. What is still available can only be had at massive premiums to spot. The sellers will not budge. I smell a genuine shortage over here.