Happy Days Are Here Again!
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And its going to continue to lag unless oil and precious metals start moving north.
I still hope Canada can create real wealth instead of creating bubbles. It may feel nice but most drug addicts cannot end up well.
I want my sons to enjoy more than I instead we exhaust all the wealth. Real economy will suffer in a bubble since people will misplace their effort and investment
Hear, hear. But I don’t know if Canadians are ready for that. I can;t tell you how many weird looks I get when I tell people that I build furniture or restore an old cars in my spare time. Fixing and building stuff is a foreign concept for most Canadians. Pushing papers across the desk is considered “adding value” Go figure.
Really? I enjoy fixing my rental properties. Unfortunately, work and this investment stuff take too much time.
Yup. Now, it does take a lot of time to do this. A couple of weeks ago I just finished restoring a 1972 Monte Carlo, but it took me almost a year to complete
I fixed up four older Subarus last winter. Gave two to two of my daughters and my wife and I each drive one. May do one this winter. Nothing better for a Calgary winter beater than an AWD.
I like your style Dan. I got my last few vehicles in identical pairs. The good one for the road and the other was usually a wreck I cannibalized for parts. I would never have bothered but some mechanics are as near to highway robbers as you can get.
I relied on my high school mechanics and a lot of youtube videos. Had to pull the motors on all four and change the head gaskets and had the heads planed. Wish I would have replaced the oil rings on a couple but they are perfect winter beaters. I got tired of mechanic shops overcharging and replacing parts that didn’t need replacing on older vehicles.
You said it. I only fixed my own cars to spite those rats.
What kind of old cars, Chris?
I have never know one to end up well until they went through some really tough times!
Gotta tell you guys. As you know Kathy and I drive older BMW’s. She a 2003 X-5 and me a 2003 325 convert. (With 56K miles!)
We were in Enumclaw, Washington on Sunday when the alternator went out on her car.
I went to a NAPA parts store where it was diagnosed for no charge and the folks there made me feel like I was family. I asked if there was a mechanic in that little town who worked on BMW’s. Turns out the guy right around the corner had been in business for 39 years. I left the car there overnight after putting the key in the drop slot. Called the next morning and told him my predicament. He laughed and said not to worry and that he would diagnose the problem and call me. I told him not to worry about calling and he laughed again and said that he did not do business that way. Got a call about three hours later and he said that yes it was the alternator and that two of the belts were shot.
I went to pick up the car late that afternoon and he had the old parts sitting there so that I could see the problem.
I paid the bill and he said, “Oh by the way, our work is guaranteed across the U.S. and Canada. If you have any problems call this 800 number and someone will come, pick up the car and fix it again at no charge.”
I looked at the guy and asked him if there were any houses for sale in his town!
Gotta tell you, restored my faith in humanity!
Al ~ Ever own a BMW 2002? I have owned two – 1976 and 1973 (TII – “Turkis”)
I saw a report yesterday that we are in par with 1999-2000 on income to DOW ratio. It means that stock is as expensive as ever before in real term. However, considering the loose monetory policy, it could go up a lot higher. This is unprecedented time.
Saw that report as well. Something happened to the stock market during those years, but I can’t seem to remember what….. Oh well, I’ll just keep pressing the buy button. Yellen has my back.
Yes, she sure does!
Yep Lawrence, it certainly is euphoria now!
The miners are the place to be for 2015.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/marketnewsvideo/2014/12/23/jnug-uwm-big-etf-inflows/
Al, here’s a great Benz for those mine visits.
http://mbwallpaper.us/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/mercedes-g-wagon-forum-bmatte-black-mercedes-g-wagon-on-savini-sv-28s-wheels—mercedes-c3rnb7hx.jpg
Matthew,
Raising the bar a little for those mine visits… Adding some wheels. ๐
http://www.autocar.co.uk/car-review/mercedes-benz/g63-amg-6×6
Best to all,
LPG
LPG, now we’re talking; that thing has portal axles like the Unimog!
http://suche.truckscout24.de/bilder/unimog.jpg
lol Matthew…
Ba-da-bing !
Best to you,
LPG
You know what those turkeys cost?
The black one is a bargain at $140,000 to start. The one that’s good enough for LPG is about $600,000 ๐
Best Festivus present anybody could ask for. I knew the Fed wouldn’t let us down.
its is that time of the year. If you are able to go out and enjoy in the scene you most likely where at Al, those people have the means to go out and enjoy life. For 26% of country not working or under employed, it is a completely different story.
Yep, but it is all about attitude. I have been in both places!
Gary, did you say that one could try a bet on the conventional markets, but should watch the biotech sector as the canary-in-the-coal-mine indicator that it could top out? Right now, the Nasdaq Biotech Index is down almost 5%; is that just tax related selling in thin volume or could it be a warning sign?
Jan,
CELG and GILD are weighing on IBB today but I doubt it’s a fundamental shift.
“I guess we were incorrect about gold”
WOW AL YOU FINALLY ADMIT IT.
after how many years of touting gold you finally cave.
Talk about another mouthful.
I guess we were in correct about gold.
Happy days ARE here again.
Stocks are going to the stratosphere
Even a 20% correction is no big deal after 6 years of gains
$ at 8 year highs
Everything is coming up roses for U.S. economy
We are the envy of the world inspire what the doom and bloomers try to push
Gold and especially silver were slaughtered will be dead money bear for many more years
The fed doesn’t even have to raise rates, and they no longer need QE
Everything is coming up trump cards except for the wholes who bought into the pump and dump gold scheme
Yeah Al I guess you were incorrect about gold
Too bad it took 3 years longer than it needed to to find that out
James (the lesser),
When the last bull gives up on something, this marks the beginning of a bull market for there’s no more sellers out there.
What matters is sentiment and positioning – typically they go hand in hand.
The worse the sentiment, the more the chances of a bull market at the corner.
If sentiment could deteriorate a little more – although we’re super super low levels – that would please me. My orders are ready – 20% or 30% below current market prices on some stocks.
Successful investing = buying when things are ugly to start with, and selling when you don’t want to part with your investments because it’s done so well for you and you think it’s gonna continue to do so and you’re gonna miss more (but again, this is when one needs to sell).
IMHO, buying during ugly times for prices puts the bar much lower in terms of where to sell. It also makes it easier, and helps sleep better.
Now, I – again – don’t know where the bottom in gold is but I like some prices on some stocks these days. I don’t look too much at ETFs such as GDXJ but I look at specific stocks/stories/fundamentals/balance sheets/catalyst.
If you ask why why I don’t look at GDXJ (and for anyone who asks “why”) I suggest you take a look at what COMPOSES GDXJ (I mean the list of stocks, their country of listing etc…). Then, it will maybe become clear as to why, potentially, GDXJ is not doing so well these days.
Moving on…
As I’ve written several times, I’ve been “snipping” since late October/early Nov and all of these capital additions are still profitable so far. I also keep ample firepower in case things turn ugly one more time – which I hope. Turning ugly for me means gold making a lower low close to or below $1100.
I don’t expect to make bank within 3 or 6 months but I am convinced that the LOWER I buy, the more chances I have to make bank at some point. Again, this implies to buy when things are ugly. But the more I pay for something, the more I need this thing to go high in order for me to make my return…
Little anecdote to illustrate my point…
As I’ve written in several posts, I deployed some capital at the end of Oct/early Nov.
Trust me, buying stocks on Oct 30-31, then Nov 3rd, 4, 5 was not exactly easy, and for a few days, some of these capital additions were in the red. So I thought I might have been a bit “kamikaze” on this… but given that
1) we had had a nice drop since the summer,
2) it was red day after red day in the market and
3) I didn’t go “all in”,
I slept well on all these days, despite some of these positions in the red for a few days.
More importantly, I KNEW that sentiment (due to surveys in the metals) was at multi-year lows so I thought: “when sentiment will start to reverse, some of these stocks will have a nice snap back”. And this is exactly what occurred.
Going forward?
Going forward for 2015, I am MOSTLY concerned about a massive market correction in equities, which will take along the PM stocks.
This is my single biggest worry for 2015.
The higher conventional markets go, the more I am worried. This is why I keep ample firepower and have orders at 20-30% below some stocks current market price in the PM space.
Ah… and I forgot to mention: I also keep some firepower IN CASE those stocks drop more than these 20-30% – say they go down 50% from here.
Now, to finish, I will come back to something that you mentioned about Al saying “I guess we were incorrect about gold”. I think I understand the frustration….
…. BUT…. without any misrespect, who cares about what Al says or think about gold ? Who cares about what everyone of us says or think about gold ? Who cares about what I say or think about gold ? Or even say, Rick Rule ! The market will do what it has to do. That goes for the PM markets, and for each stocks within the PM space.
So I again don’t know if we have a bottom or not. What I KNOW though is that once the last bull gives up, this is the beginning of a bull market. This is why I like this space: because it is increasingly hated, and the number of bulls who seem to be willing to give up keeps increasing. This is also why I am worried about higher conventional markets levels (although I admit that it is typically referred to as the “most hated bull market” and that it therefore leaves more room to go higher as there are still skeptics out there, such as most retail investors).
If we agree that successful investing is not about investing in popular stuff, then we have to agree that it means it is about investing in non-popular (hated) stuff. Which means, when doing so, it is a lonely road, and most of your friends and neighbors will not “get you” when you mention you invest in battered stocks/asset classes. Personally, I have no issue with that.
It was a bit longish, but these are just my 2cts.
Best to you, and GL investing/trading.
LPG
“When going through hell, keep going”
LPG,
You know, you make a lot of sense every one in a while ( ;
* once
Chartster,
Much less often than “once in a while”….that’s way too often !
Best to you,
LPG
Another terrific post LPG. Especially the last part about being on a lonely road when all others think us fools for buying the battered sectors. Who cares what they think! And even if we don’t know exactly when the turnaround will come we do know one thing very well…..what goes down eventually goes back up exactly as what rises eventually falls. This is an inviolable rule of nature and investing. The longest gold/silver bear market of modern history is no guarantee it will end anytime soon but if we are patient and have bought quality at excellent prices it is merely a matter of time for rewards to follow.
Wrong for you The Greater.
Remember as I have said more times than I can remember, I don’t trade gold or silver short term!
What got you so riled up lately James. Is it the Christmas season?
James,
Hang in there regarding PMs. The bottom is not far away. It looks like it will be when the dollar tops. Should be in the next couple weeks.
Who says it’s not in already Chartster ? ๐ ๐ ๐
Best to you,
LPG
I think so too but so far the rising dollar keeps making a monkey of my theories. If it does not settle down by early January i will really feel like a chump. Still, I cannot help but feel that as the last of the surviving dollar bears finally cave in and go long there is going to be an abrupt and unexpected reckoning. By the way, I have long advocated going long dollars but am now looking keenly at the other side of the trade as the opportunities for a massive squeeze are looking far too tantalizing to ignore. I think it comes in early January so I am already mentally prepared. Just a matter of watching the charts for that breakdown which always comes. ๐
Chartster… your call on bottom is not far away… seems reasonable but for the dollar tops in the next couple of weeks?… IMHO, I tend to disagree… following reasons
1) the confirmed news of Fed raising interest rate will come in Apr (given no one could create a black swan, not even Putin or Xi)… I dont think anyone selling before the news.. so i think it moves up until Apr (at least).
2) there is a video posted by someone about Putin’s advisor saying Saudi (on top of killing competition in oil production) cooperates with US to lower oil price to stage enough anger among Russians which US can later easily stage a coup dtat on Putin. Saudi has 6-month window. If you count oil fall starting in Oct… that quite coincides with the epic being in Apr.
3) ECB QE in Jan 22… (supporting high USD).
4) Abe got re-elected, so the crazy kamikaze goes on.
Having said that.. best hope is gold holds up itself from tight physical and demand from India/China while USD is rising…
Best,
genesys
Genesys Is there proof that Saudi only has 6 month window? It make me more comfortable
Sorry.. I have no evidence besides that video… check this.. http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/6480/russian-explanation
I know my #2 is somewhat speculation to believe Saudi/US has 6 months… but I am quite comfortable knowing that US shale bust would need a couple of quarters to show real bad sign and maybe Obama will be concerned.. so I just speculate 6 month window is sort of reasonable.
Is it possible that FED or government will buy high yield bond from those shale producers? If it is the case, bank can supply large amount of loans and those shale companies will last longer or acquired by banks.
Genesy,
Follow what they do , “not what they say”
Metals should get hammered shortly
within the next couple of weeks right.. hope you’re right my friend … been so long in bear… too long.. ๐
if you mean buy metals… yes.. I agree.. only if I have that deep pockets… but I agree.
Expect the unexpected Genesys. It is just when everyone is certain of a single direction for an asset class (like the dollar to keep rising) that they are most certainly going to be wrong!
Even Peter Schiff seems to be moderating his stance towards The Fed, “things happen when you least expect them.” That sounds like a prophetic statement and now it seems the markets are about to enter a bubble phase, the markets have survived some terrific shocks, perhaps it is destined for a long life after all, but I just can’t see how all this can last.
There is a misconception that Peter schiff is bearish on stocks and bullish on gold. This is only half true. Since I listen to his radio for years. I swear he has been bullish on stock but he just thinks gold and foreign stocks will do better. There he gets mixed result. I don’t agree with the strong bullishness on gold in the period of 2011 and 2012. Some foreign stocks are also not as good due to various reasons. But he is definitely bullish on DOW. So he never encouraging shorting it.
This is from a poster on Zero Hedge called “Wm the Shrubber”. Cheers!
Twas’ two days before Christmas, and all through the Fed,
The minions were cheering,”Volatility is dead”.
Portfolios were leveraged, with nary a care,
With assurances that liquidity, would always be there.
The indices climbed to new record heights,
With visions of higher; the Fed you don’t fight.
My terminals blinking, and I at my desk,
I’d finally conceded, there was no more risk.
When in emerging markets there arose such a clatter,
I sprang from my seat to see what was the matter.
Away to the Bloomberg, I flew like a flash,
Reviewed all the headlines and began to raise cash.
Europe was crashing, with Japan in more trouble,
China was slowing, and our markets a bubble.
When what to the pandering press should appear,
Soothing words from the Fed, and again markets cheered.
The algos u-turned, there’d be no more sellin’,
I knew in an instant it must be Janet Yellen.
More rapid than eagles, her policies they came,
And she whistled and shouted and called them by name.
On stimulus, on TARP, on QEs 1, 2 and 3,
On Abenomics, on LTROs, the money is free.
$13TR and counting, we’ll print ’til we die.
Prosperity from nothing, it’s as easy as pie.
And then came the punchline, they’d found a new fix.
The Fed was preparing QEs 4, 5 and 6!
I often have asked, just how high is high.
I no longer question, I know to just buy.
The chairwoman smiled, a right jolly old elf.
The con worked again, she was proud of herself.
Fundamentals don’t count, only faith in the Fed.
Investors the world over have nothing to dread.
A world drowning in debt, weighed down with deflation,
Was saved once again by more asset inflation.
And I heard her exclaim, as she cranked up her press,
Wish your kids Merry Christmas, they’ll inherit this mess!
This is beautiful! Brought a tear to my eye.
‘Though not sure ’tis from my laugh or my cry.
Detroit Michigan is experiencing a rebirth, Detroit should never have been allowed to decay because of government and business mismanagement. Quicken loans has moved their 1300 employees to the old downtown core. That’s a great move, so much of what The US is all about has come out of Detroit. I believe the rebirth will be successful, they are taking the right steps by revitalizing the downtown core and having people live close to their work and away from the car culture.
By the way if you love fine art, The Detroit Metropolitan Museum has one of the best collections bar none, I’m glad it wasn’t part of the restructuring.
It is so typical of Americans to base so much of their existence on owning a car, life is so much better for people when they learn to get away from mechanical and electrical gadgets and live by interacting with one another.
Three great comments Machine Gun.
I truly hope that it works for Detroit and this would be a GREAT sign for the U.S. in a sea of terrible news!
My gains were starting too look too good in just a week after I loaded back up only a week ago and I was feeling nervous as the market has moved up too quickly, so took my gains. Nasdaq seemed to be struggling.
You know what? Most on this site are completely lost!
You actually think that oil is going down because of supply and demand??
( like oil is not manipulated by paper, like EVERYTHING else is? ) goofballs
And you actually think the Fed is going to do another round of QE??
( you are delusional )
The whole world is going back to asset backed currencies , they are waiting for the US to comply!
Asset backed currencies does not mean just Gold! It means other assets , like oil…!
They have to take the speculation off oil to get it at a price where it should be valued to each countries in ground asset and volume produced.
When the mainstream news speaks of supply and demand and says nothing about the derivatives or speculation on oil, , that’s when you know they are lying.. ( as they always are )
I agree with Chartster on NO MORE ROUND OF QE… Look at bank excess reserve of $2T (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXCSRESNS)…
The next round of crisis does not need QE from the lender of last resort… Banks are more than ready (in 2008.. the lenders were on their knees and could not do this…. ) On top… most people do not have choices in life but these banks HAVE…when Fed raises fed fund rates in Apr 2015.
Choice #1, since FEd fund rates will be higher than interest earned on excess reserve (I speculate Fed will do this to follow textbooks), banks should start to release some ER into real economy… if this goes well… the jackpot should go to inflation (good inflation.. so silver should outperform gold?) / stock market / business activity. Banks WIN.
Choice #2, if Fed raises rate and something goes bust, there is this inert excess reserve to buy low hoping Fed does not have to step in with**unconventional** policies again (lowering rate is conventional)… Banks also WIN.
I highly doubt that Fed would not have stopped QE if they had not thought banks are ready for this.
PS… macroeconomics is my reading hobby… so must be something stupid somewhere…in my thought… ๐
I am not a goofball, Chartster.
I know you’re not Bird.
Wrong choice in wording on my part.
Merry Christmas
And a Merry Christmas to you too Chartster.
Al
Speak into the microphone!!
Peter
If you are bad you will get a piece of gold in your stocking
Whee…can I have some coal stocks too James?
And if your really bad you will get a piece of silver in your stocking
Dow is headed to 20,000
My low $900’s (at best) gold call STILL looks good to me.
Next year may well be hell for commodities.
…..but don’t forget…..the Sun eventually rises everywhere….even over the sewer that gold will become.
Its almost 8pm Christmas Eve over here atm…so…..
I wish you all a wonderful Christmas Day,
I hope you all enjoy it with family & friends.
Above all….stay safe & see you later on here.
Cheers.
We are a couple of hours behind you Skeeta. Merry xmas and a happy new year to all.
I am positioned for a brief melt-up in the PM stocks. Sounds like a couple posters are testy in the last few days before Christmas. This is the time of year to put aside the attitudes and dine with your enemy as a friend. Merry Christmas.
I guess time to give up on inflation protection since it is counted as GDP now. Stocks looks like going into euphoria from here. Unfortunately Canada TSX has been lagging.