Ride the conventional markets higher in 2015
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I know Chris pretty well and know that he is an articulate speaker.
Thanks for the comment R.John
I am expecting gold to be suppressed below the December 31, 2013 close, so that gold can OFFICIALLY have two down years.
Starting in early January, we should have a snap-back (upwards) for gold/silver and the miners.
Personally I have bought trading shares for a number of miners that I hold core positions and also building up a position in NUGT.
I like Gary’s prediction for the markets. I am considering buying a 2x or 3x NAS/S&P ETF for the January time period.
Brian
I am in agreement Brian, and in-general with Gary’s thesis. In early 2015 many new positions will be established, and there will be some churn and money movement re-balancing portfolios. Things will trend in the same direction for Q1, but then a change of direction in commodities should be in place. Oil & NG will likely bounce back at the end of Q1 or beginning of Q2. Pladdium, Silver, Uranium, and copper should turn up during Q1 and Oil/Gold/Platinum will turn up in Q2 after the last of this upcoming downleg we are in going into Q1.
I do agree that in early January you may see a snap back in some of the mining stocks as new positions are entered for the year with money that has been on the sideline, or that is being re-allocated.
My concern is if Gold and Oil were to get knocked down even lower to $1050 Gold and $40 Oil, then the mining and drilling stocks will have one last downleg.
I do think Silver, Palladium, Uranium, and Copper may decouple from Oil/Gold to some degree, along with a few other base metals before the overall broad turn in entire commodity complex. I agree with Gary that normally it is when Oil bottoms and turns, that the whole commodity complex will bottom and rebound. However, since oil is plunging along some real fundamental/political/sentiment swings, it could actually bottom after some of the more industrial metals & energy metals rebound first. This would be mainly due to how hard those commodities have already been hit far earlier than oil got hit, and if there is 3%-5% growth here and China, then that should create true demand for some of these commodities.
There are many aspects to consider for the PMs Shad. The hard thing is knowing when investor sentiment will shift back to the mining stocks. I do not see it happening right away but with that said I hope I am wrong…
I am in agreement that it will take longer for the overall commodity complex to bottom (likely by 2nd Quarter 2015 – May/June bottom). However, the snapback in January will be short-lived and only due to the very oversold conditions to end the year. It will still likely just be a counter-trend bounce, and then will head down. The more industrial commodities will likely bottom first if the economy is “really” on a rebound. I still hold out that 2016 could be the parabolic top to the general markets like the Russell 2000, S&P, and DOW.
** It will be an interesting first half to 2015 for sure.
That was supposed to say 2015 was the year for the Parabolic rise in the general markets. Then a real 10-20% correction that does NOT come right back up. Then the moment of reckoning will be at hand, and commodities will be one area that gets the new inflows of money leaving the general markets. We need that parabolic move up then correction, to put any sustained uptrend in the PMs.
Drilling rig count has be down hugely in US and particularly in Canada. Since decline curve is fast for horizontal drilled wells, are we going to see an major rebound in oil around middle of next year due to supply concerns? Once producers stop drilling programs, it will take long time to bring them back with current wells dry up. This is particularly true to Canada since we normally drill in the winter. If this decline trigger shut down oil sand production, it will take years for them to come back. This decline is too deep and fast to be reasonable. North American oil gas was already not very profitable and relies on debt before the decline.
That is a good note on the year ending gold price Brian. I agree that the market would like to see gold close negative for the year even though it is only slightly negative.
As for the upward snap-back for gold and silver in early January depending on how large of a snap-back I do not see it. As Gary mentioned he thinks it will be a choppy market for the PMs and I tend to agree. I guess we will have to see.
I also agree this should be a good year for continued growth in stock prices although I a less sure the year end close will satisfy. My thinking is long stocks but hedged with gold and miners.
I would not disagree with you on that one Bird.
You thinking it could be a great year but it will finish with a belly flop, too? That is my basic premise right now. Up, up and away but don’t forget the parachute boys!!!!
The recent gold movement has eaten up quite a few of my gains from the earlier part of the year, so I’m inclined to just wait for the ride down into the Mar – summer lows in the commodity sector to trade the miners again. I do wish I had followed Gary’s advice and jumped into TQQQ when he called the pullback an intermediate low. Good call on that one, Gary!
Gentlemen, you might be interested in Greg Hunter’s recent interview with GATA’s Chris Powell: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIqnBeRMBJQ – on what trading collars on gold & silver trading portends. Fascinating indeed!