There are no guarantees in investing
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I appreciate everyone here who has their own thoughts on the ups and downs. I find Gary, Doc, and Rick to be more accurate than most, and I have to say I like the way Gary puts things so clearly. I’ve had my share of losses this year along with my (thankfully more) gains, but I also thank y’all for mentioning no one is always right. Makes my 40% of incorrect trades feel better about themselves, LOL.
As a new listener, I appreciate the balanced content of the program. In support of Gary’s method of identifying cycles, Strauss and Howe in the Fourth Turning mentions how cyclical time is endless. Linear time has an absolute beginning and an absolute end. I believe most people tend to think in a linear way and fail to realize trends can change. Gold, after having 10 years of up prices, was obviously expected to continue going forever. Linear thinking. $50 oil in 2014; whuda thunk it? Conventional markets at all time highs and many are being linear in their thinking again; onward and upward. They will……until they don’t.
On PMs, looks like from a volume standpoint, there is some money betting on miners today: IAG, ABX, KGC, AUY. I’d like to see gold close the day above $1200 and add a few bucks tomorrow for a two day run. These one day spurts are getting hard for an old man to take…
Gary if final low would be occurring in second half of 2015 you would NOT be seeing gold stocks gdx and gdxj all time volume record accumulation now. Smart money is not wrong here. We have either put in bottom already or it’s coming up shortly but not a chance in second half of 2015. As a matter of fact the negativity and sentiment on this forum is contrarian indicator that good days are ahead for gold and that i am right. MY 2 CENTS. Happy new year gentleman. May 2015 be best year for gold.
Also this bear market is coming up to be longest in history as well. Another sign we are ending this raute.
And the bull in stock markets is also one of the longest Stewie. That is the relationship we are all contending with as we deflate step by step. So we really need to wonder what will happen to the dollar once it all ends if metals shoot up and stocks finally end their glory run. I have heard a fair case for gold and the dollar rising together at that stage….but who really knows.
Stewie,
I agree 100% percent. Gary has bailed on gold and made it clear he is staying away precisely at a time were record lows and crb/wti are bottoming. Shows you that this market and even confuse the likes of a good trader in Gary.
Glen,
The metals are just too volatile for me. I’ve decided to wait until gold makes a higher intermediate high, something it hasn’t done since 2012. Once it does that then I will have confirmation that the bear market is over and I will then buy aggressively at the next intermediate cycle low. I’m willing to miss the first leg up to make sure that the whipsaws are over.
I gotta agree with you Gary.
Gary,
Sorry maybe I came across the wrong way. What I was trying to say is if we do go up from here, which I believe we will, you will have missed the initial move. Your response is classic Gary of which I also agree. Gary it makes total sense to also wait for confirmation and get the two thumbs up to go all in. I like your strategy! Mine is a bit more aggressive.
Thanks as always
The initial legs off the very bottom are the most violent and this is where majority of the money will be made. This can been seen in gdx in 2008 leg up. Also Rick Rule and Frank Guistra have confirmed that is where millions are made. IMO simply saying screw first leg up you giving up millions. My strategy is also more aggressive. I’m willing to eat a crow if needed but will stick to my guns. Most people on this forum i’m afraid will miss the train. Everyone here is on the side lines waiting. That’s what people do at bottoms and hold tops. Complete opposite strategy needs to be applied in order to make big money in this market. But what do i know. Happy new year gents.
It’s also important for perspective, that each of our 3 ta’s will likely trade with a tight stop loss, so it’s likely their gains are 5-100Γ what their losses are. Rick talks about 3-4 tick stop losses…for a $23 upward move in gold! = 100 ounces/futures contract= $2300 in daily profit…while risking maybe $50.
And 4 contracts…..so it was a really good day for those guys who followed along.
Three gcg5 contacts were sold at the camouflage target 1187.7. ONE for the fence.
Hallelujah !!!
Perhaps Al you are finally getting it!
Eureka I have found it!
THIS WAS WITHOUT A DOUBT ONE OF THE MOST FASCINATING INTERVIEWS ON THIS BLOG IN MANY MONTHS.
Let’s recap…
First Al you stated yesterday you were not optimistic at all in the gold market.
What was my response?
Did you read what I wrote regarding this under Docs interview yesterday?
You should. I nailed it.
Second GARY Now you are predicting this is a counter trend rally all the way to possibly $1280 or $1300
IF this gets to those levels THIS IS NOT A COUNTER TREND RALLY.
You flip flopped again. Admit it.
You said gold had bottomed, then you put on hedges, now you are back to saying it going down further. YOU ARE ALL OVER THE MAP.
Third, Al you claim your site and guests are different in the fact you discuss current events.
This is exactly my point.
You are simply reporting the news.
See my earlier comments under Ricks interview.
Then we get into the heart of the interview.
GARY goes on to say, AND RIGHTLY SO,
The best traders in the world will get it right maybe 60 to 65 percent of the time.
Then GARY goes on to say, WRONGLY SO, the best thing you can do is find a system that you like, that you trust and stick with your system.
Al, you then say a mouthful with the two simple words “bucking odds”
CORY than gets into the mix by saying, RIGHTLY SO, when you invest you are taking a risk, you will have some up days, you will have some down days.
What’s important is you UNDERSTAND WHAT YOU ARE DOING. BRAVO CORY!
Now…
Gary says you need a “system” you trust and understand, and that the best system will still lose 40% of the time.
What have I been teaching and preaching for three years now?
NO SYSTEM WILL TURN YOU INTO A SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR OR SPECULATOR.
YOU NEED VALUE AND EDGE.
Gary is correct when he says the best systems still lose 40% of the time, but where he is hopelessly wrong is when he states you should use a system. You have no chance.
In horse racing the favorite wins 33% of the time. Decade after decade this statistic NEVER CHANGES.
Every and any system has been tried to beat the races. Geniuses smarted than all of us have tried for years and can’t do it. The brightest minds have created and deployed system after the system, with no success.
Why?
Because they refuse, or can’t, understand the basic principle that is required to beat any speculative investment (horses, gold, stocks, poker…)
YOU MUST INSIST ON VALUE AND EDGE.
Al you said it your self she you said you are bucking the odds.
Cory You followed that line of reasoning when you said you are assuming risk.
The ODDS MUST BE IN YOUR FAVOR.
IT DOESNT MATTER IF YOU LOWE 60% Of the time.
As long as EVERY WAGER (investment) is in your favor you will win in the long run.
To know if the investment is in your favor YOU MUST KNOW WHAT THE TRUE ODDS ARE
then and only then can you determine if you have value.
So what is the outcome.
AL SAYS WE NEED TO LISTEN TO ALL OPINIONS.
WRONG WRONG WRONG
THROW OUT ALL OPINIONS.
Gary says everyone is looking for a guru, don’t include me in that sorry lot.
I made a fortune in horse racing bucking the crowd, and only investing when the odds were in my favor and I had an edge.
IT IS THE SAME THING HERE.
if you want to listen to Doc, Gary, Rick for entertainment so be it.
I AM NOT A TRADER. I READILY ADMIT I AM A BUY AND HOLD GOLD/SILVER INVESTOR.
however if you want to trade YOU must understand what you are doing, as CORY said.
If you don’t understand the game you are playing GET OUT. FIND A NEW GAME.
Listening to these boys will get you no where, and they know it.
There I said it.
Al you say the forecasters are wrong
What did I forecast this year?
I said gold would be flat for 2014 – it is
You never heard me say to the moon
I took a shot on a 1212.80 bottom call – we are still right there.
For a high risk play I went with Bitcoin.
I made a fortune on NUSKIN. THE ONLY TRUE PLAY THE WHOLE YEAR.
Throw down the gauntlet.
Tell your boys to make forecasts for 2015, no hedging, no if thens.
Give them all a mythical bankroll and see how they do with it.
It is high time you do this!
Let’s put our money where our mouth is
Happy new year to all!
This constant refrain of “flip-flopping”, and “Tell your boys to make forecasts for 2015, no hedging, no if thens” is a disastrous mindset for trading.
To say a trader shouldn’t ‘flip-flop’ is to say they shouldn’t trade. Is that your point?
Many say that value investing is a superior approach to making $ in the markets. And it probably is for the vast majority of people. But these guys are traders, and seem to do well at it. Why should they take your approach any more than you should theirs?
I agree GH. Who the heck wants to be locked in to any set of comments since much of it is just an open daily discussion and theorizing anyway. I think some of the listeners here take it to heart because they think they are hearing market calls that should be absolute when in fact what they are listening in to is more like problem solving live on the air.
At least I tell myself that I should not trade since I cannot beat Goldman and JP Morgan in their game and I will lose.
Some great points GH!
What is amusing to me is that gold is currently sitting at 1197.60 which is just one dollars difference from the December 30th 2013 close of 1196.70 …. all that wheel spinning this year and we are virtually right back where we started!
If it had not been for that spike up today I might be more optimistic but it now looks to me we get a retracement of most of today’s gains by this time tomorrow and that suggests we end the year closer to 1190 than to 1200.
But does that portend anything useful? Well some of the technical guys might just say yes. That if gold could not even exceed last years close we have another year of rough waters ahead. Gold has to beat 1205.50 of last December to inspire a little more confidence I suspect.
Funny, maybe the banks are messing with our heads. This is almost comedy.
I think it was you that said they’re aiming for TWO down years in gold. Sure makes sense to me.
That might have been me….. I can’t really recall saying that though. I feel pretty sure we are going to have a down day tomorrow though. On a side note, are you watching wheat and corn? Not many here take an interest but both are heading down as expected and I think that trend will carry us right back to the lows of 2009. We ALMOST got to the sweet spot in October and then the grains abruptly took off before meeting their technical bottoms that I was anticipating. Just something to watch (as if we don’t have enough on the screens already!)
SUGA – new 52 week low today.
That was me – Cory brought the topic up with Gary yesterday, after it was discussed a bit. ~ Brian
On this topic of year-end shenanigans, I expect a final push to bring gold down below $1200 by opening bell. The a half day of market to slowly drift upward with a couple dope slaps to keep gold in it’s place. On January 2nd, release the hounds !
Take out the word “almost” Bird!
OK Al.
TOTALLY AGREE JAMES!!
Peter
Birdman:
My theory on Gold and stocks in general is that they either go up, down or stay the same.
That’s it. Only three things can happen.
Gold just proved it.
Of course you are correct! Ha Ha Ha……And just when we all thought we were going to make progress this year. The funniest damn thing would be if gold ended the year EXACTLY the same as last year. That would mess with my mind.
Hello Birdman,
Maybe just a few words to easy your mind – just in case:
Gold will end the year UP in many currencies incl. EUR, CAD,GBP, JPY, CHF… as well as CNY, INR, RUB, BRL, MXN etc…. Bottom line: in most places in the world.
Bottom line: change the angle of the (your) perspective and Reeeeeeelax π π π
Best to all,
LPG
Well that is a lot easier than changing my meds π
Forget meds Birdman.
Your body is much stronger than you think.
Best to you,
LPG
Please remember to take them π
Maybe I should double the dosage. This is going to be an interesting year. Yikes!
A couple of bucks isn’t close enough, Bird!
Wrong Gary! The safest place to put your money is in “poupanΓ§a” in the Bank of Brazil (Banco do Brasil). It gives to you 0,6% interest every month. If you have $1.000.000,00 (2.600.000,00 reais) it gives 13.000,00 reais by month. It’s a nice wage…
I’m adamant one can get a higher/better rate than that in Venezuela ! π
Not sure better = safer though π
LPG
Fourth quarter numbers are going to be higher then expected. It’s that simple. Higher gold prices combined with lower cost of fuel and your profits increase. Look at Iamgold, there poised to go up much faster all the while people are on sidelines and crossing there fingers and hoping we get sub 1000. Well we have less then 24 hours for charters and all others theories to be proven correct. If we don’t get a close tomorrow below 1155 then we will not see sub 1000 in 2015 according to Marty the great armstrong which all the bears follow. Further if we happen to crack 1227 and close above it, he states the low is in. Meaning in 2015 we will not see new lows. Some things to ponder. I don’t post charts nor do I make them, but one thing im good at is reading them. We are headed higher and james is right. It will not just be a bounce, it will be a start of a new trend. That trend has already started for most miners.
Cheers
Happy new years to all!
Spread the Love Glen. π
Best to you and Happy 2015 as well.
LPG
LPG,
Very much appreciated and the best to you and yours π
OK, thanks Glen. Martin says below 1155 spells another year of doom? I could buy that. In the meantime I am just having a laugh about how much some of us anguished over metals only to see them back at almost the exact same price as last December. Too damn funny for words!
Bird,
Yup that is what he has stated few days ago. Please don’t shoot the messenger π
Like I’ve said in the past, having Bird on board as recent as a month ago and Matt being matt im not sweating it. I came to the conclusion that my 91/92 target I put out a long time ago on dollar just might come true. Im not sold on to da moon dollar. I’ve never seen so many bullish on the dollar. In fact it’s the same crowd that had dollar going to the floor.
One last thing!
The recipe and formula I use is simple. Wti oil and crb combined with currency charts.
The stamping on the wall is the cyclical charts showing the miners in my portfolio have already hit there all time lows. That’s good enough for me.
Oh yes one very last thing!
I believe we all have a voice in here and AL and Cory recognize that. We should have an annual poll on the four muskateers and there performance or value for the site.
Anyone think that is a good idea? I personally like transparency and I would not mind bringing in new faces and voices on a daily basis. A good site stays on top of things and changes it up from time to time. Just my perspective.
For what it’s worth the comment section tends to favor Gary and Doc. Most often then none high numbers. I personally believe Doc and Gary were tremendous this year and I thank them both. I’ve always been of the thinking that no one should ever force or push one to follow there newsletters or subscribe. I believe both have been reasonable. Gary has given many tips/numbers for free throughout the year when he could have kept it for his subscribers. I believe when people don’t force the hand you will be blessed.
Put a poll and lets give respect to the ones who deserve the most credit.
cheers
What happens to the poll loser – do we take him outside to the woodshed?
No, we send him over to the U.K.
Al,
Have a Happy New year! Cory to you as well!
Keep up the great work and always keep that tolerance level as high as you guys showed this year. You guys truly do a remarkable job.
lol,
Bob you crack me up thanks π
Nah It’s just I believe this site is the best on the planet! With that said, I believe Al and Cory put up with so much including me sometimes that freedom of speech is what has us all here. It’s that freedom of speech that I believe should be applied because not all are created equal.
I am miffed – being keeping an eye on XAR. It issued a profits warning this year and tanked and was getting very close to my buy in price… very close…. then they come out with an update that prices had stabilised back on the 18th… and the ruddy thing basically has almost doubled in about 10 days… Nuts.
I think gold/siver are being heavily manipulated now – as always – and a tad too risky to buy into this side of the New Year. For all I know we could have another January 2014 and the miners will soar out of the starting blocks again… or they could crash the metals on Friday just for the fun of it.
(I noticed FRES was going up over the Christmas period which did suggest to me that someone in the know in London was buying into the miners.).
As scary as the conventional markets look at all time highs, or near enough with the NASDAQ, I do think that we will continue to rise up into the earnings season – anyone have any info on whether there have been major market corrections before in January?
I say let’s start the year with a mythical bankroll.
Give GARY, Doc, amd Rick $100k each and let them trade anyway they want.
They must announce all trades the day before they make it.
Let’s also invite some of the bloggers to join in.
At the end of the year the top three will be crowned the new three musketeers and will Al”s analysts for the year
Do I have a second motion?
James,
Im sorry but I have second dibs already and should be second in line behind matty lol.. Matty already refused to go on awhile back if I remember so im next in line :).
Im all in for us all picking three-five stocks and evaluate all the perfomances at end of 2015.. Winner is treated to a royalty dinner and spa package for his and hers payed by the rich folks at al korelin and cory π
Free Spa treatments? Wheeeee! Maybe I can get a pedicure.
OK, Glen, I will bite. How about some predictions? Mine are already on the board but I can repeat a few of them again if its a competition we are in. There is always enough time in a day for more personal humiliation!
For the early half of the year it is short dollars/ long euro.
Gold, silver and copper are all going to be on the rise.
Crude will lag but will soon bounce before resuming its major downtrend.
Go short the primary grains of wheat and corn.
Short sugar too.
Long select miners.
The ten year looks like it will finally break below 126.00…no idea how far down it goes but it won’t stay down for long.
Look for the Canadian dollar to finally reverse its slide and head North for awhile.
OK, those are my basic calls. I could embarrass myself further but I think that’s quite enough for one post! Let em know when the beauty treatments are ready. I could really use some work π
Bird,
I have the same outlook as you.
I will just add the inverse relationship between WTI oil and us dollar. When WTI finally bottoms then I expect dollar to top. So with your theory of a short term top in dollar we shall see a short term bounce in oil and im ok with that π
Metals and miners should outperform!
IMG.to 2.90 BUY December 31 2014
Aun.v .27 cents Buy December 31 2014
NGD.to 4.90 Buy December 31 2014
Three stocks I follow
*This is not investment advice
Not sure how we can track this since trying to go back and find previous post is like a nightmare. One feature I hope all can change for 2015 is the ability to type in posters name and get all there previous post.
Can someone run this by AL and Cory?
No man…..Some of us like to forget our old posts!
One of the fundamental rules when investing (and even trading) is “risk management”.
Returns on investments are vastly determined by the quality of this (or the lack thereof).
It’s that simple. (and please note that “simple” does NOT mean “easy”).
GL investing/trading to all, and happy new year’s eve.
LPG