Monday Commentary from Trader Rog
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Maybe a rant, but some good points, Bob!
The pub. Sounds like a great idea! It had to be a British post.
Interesting. I don’t think some of the facts about Iceland were correct.
I’m not sure the people of Europe are fed up with the Eurozone, many of my friends understand the Eurozone project is essentially a political one, it maybe an imperfect union but it’s primary goal is to bring the sovereigns closer together rather than further apart. Unfortunately economic realities are making this a painful process, but who do we blame for that? The banks and their enablers who created this mess.
No but Roger did make an interesting point.
Welcome back, Roger. Good to hear you again
tony
Looks to me Turkey is more interested in doing business with Russia and the east than they are in joining the euro.
I would probably agree bb
Turkey has really taken a big hit on its exports into Europe bb. One of the outcomes is they have shifted focus to the developing world to expand market share and are now right up there at the top with investments in Africa, especially industry. They may soon lap China for the number of new initiatives here with a focus on light manufacturing, shoes, tool works and textiles. I have met quite a few recently and they seem to outnumber even Indians lately.
Look at this article if you are curious about their plans. It is a little dated but covers a lot of territory. I only mention it because the Turks have really come on strong recently and are making big waves recently with their investments here.
Turkey Shocks Africa
http://www.worldpolicy.org/journal/winter2012/turkey-shocks-africa
Interesting Bird, heard something about a pipeline too. lol
I believe Turkey was trying to get into the euro for awhile, they may have finally said “to heck with it”, it looks to me that growth is going to happen in Eurasia, huge actually, then throw in Africa. Why on earth wouldn’t Turkey want to be a part of that?
I didn’t know that Turkey was already so involved in Africa.
Nice to know this Bird and BB.
They are everywhere all of a sudden. It came as a surprise to me too because China gets most of the press. The problems China face are that they don’t seem to integrate well in these populations. They come across as being insular and tend to keep to themselves. As an example, the Indians, Turks and Greeks here live within the communities where their factories are established whereas the Chinese will locate their staff in collectives around industrial zones. We see them driving around in vans together but not doing a great job of learning the local languages or being involved in the day to day life like those from other countries. As a result they find acceptance more difficult. The Turks seems to just fit in better. Maybe it is their nature or their culture. I don’t know. But they come here and just mix in more naturally and the people seem to appreciate them more (maybe they just pay better….I have not asked yet).
I can understand it. Just like if Chinese go to Vietnam or Japan, they would fit nicely too. Africa is too foreign. For people who go there by themselves, they have to adapt. However, for workers sent out by companies, they usually stay together.
Pretty commonplace ,Bird. Been to Vancouver lately? Talk about isolating themselves. For someone like me that feels pretty weird.
Have not been there in years Al but a friend of mine was saying Vancouver has turned into a tale of two cities with simmering resentments on the one side from long time residents who feel swamped by a huge influx of Asians. On the other is a class of wealthy immigrants from mainland China who seem to never be seen and their parachute children who dominate the universities. And they are not mixing it up at all. Like two societies living completely separate yet they are side by side. I don’t know how true that is but it sounds like something out of a science fiction movie. How can half a million people come to Vancouver and manage to ignore the other half that already live there. Is that even possible? (I am pretty sure I got the biased view by the way!)
Did not know that Bird. Interesting! Do you sense a shift in power and perception of importance?
Not yet Al. For the most part the people here have not distinguished between the different cultural groups of investors yet. The common phrase you hear on the street as you walk or drive around is “China, China, China!!”. Mostly because China really dominates the news and the investment landscape. They think I am Chinese for example as if all foreigners are from there. But the investors are really a broad mix of Indians, Greeks, Italians, Turks, Dutch, Saudis and Sudanese. It is very rare to see Canadians and Americans here except those doing charity work, church people, embassy staff and UN employees. Must be their perceptions of the region. I assure you they are distorted because I have never felt threatened living here. Most peaceful place on earth. Mind you I am semi-rural. If there is a power shift underway it is all happening in the background or at high levels. But on the street there is no sense of it at all nor would that kind of news get featured. The press is overwhelmingly bullish on growth and development and not many stories cover anything with a political angle. Bad news is suppressed. It is just as well. Politics really riles people up no matter where you go so ignorance really is bliss. In this case it works very well to keep the focus on the one thing that all the people here can agree on. They want to work, an education for their children and better lives and so the governments target is middle income status before two decades are out. It looks like they will make it provided the global economy does not derail their plans.
Rick was saying 1203.80 shows that gold buyers are not ready to roll over, we are just over 1206 at the moment. Guess some people are still interested in gold.
Well sure, bb
Read the Jim Willie article at Silver Doc, sounds like Mr Willie figures pretty much everything that Roger is talking about is evidence of the U.S. dollar being dropped.
As well as other events of course.
None of us have lived thru a change in a world currency reserve, bound to be a few surprises.
Is it just me, or was this a particularly good interview?
It was a good interview, just like every other interview on here.
Yes, it was a good interview. Roger made some interesting points.
Dancing BIRDMAN ! ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RdfURi_0DV8
Franky’s back!
Thank you Chris.
Let’s plan on dinner Sunday of the Show. You, I and Cory.
4 of the 7- G7 countries are now panicking as oil revenue plummets… This deflationary crisis is now full steam.
Oil is telling all you need to know. In 2007-08 Oil started the rout. It is doing it again. No one notices though…
Government tax revenues are collapsing from the oil price. Sicen many countries GDP have been held up Gov spending you can easily extrapolate that GDP hits are coming big big time.
In Canada it is rumored that 200,000 of the 470,000 workers in the oilsands are slated for layoff……
Ken, where did you hear that? Have a link?
Whew, that is a lot of people. Are you sure? That spells one big recession for Alberta. Maybe Lawrence knows more.
Not to mention the other sectors that will be affected by these layoffs.
Most EPC (Engineering, procurement and construction) companies have received project cut by oil gas companies so they are cutting very hard . I heard WorleyParsons is cutting 60% of work force and a lot more coming. These job cuts should come mostly from the service companies like engineering companies. If oil does not come back within a couple of months, we have trouble.
However, I don’t think you can get exact number yet. People are waiting.
Thanks Lawrence. I wonder if we get a reprieve. The Canadian dollar is at another support……but will it bounce this time? We will know by tomorrow I should think. It would make a difference to how I feel about gold anyway.
Im in Albetra and I havnt heard those numbers, not that Im part of the “in” crowd.
I don’t believe we had that extent of layoffs the last time oil tanked.
Last time the comeback happened rather quickly and companies were operating on fat margin before the slump so they rode it out. Not sure about this time. But I believe economies around the world still need energy and they can get it but not on this price. Everyone is losing mnony now.
One more thing
I bet there is a oil derivative blowup the next 3 weeks. OIL LEHMAN!
time will tell but someone is holding a huge bag
CITI bank is my guess.
Guys, do you think FED will allow major US banks to blow up without printing huge amount of money to save them first? There are hudreds of trillions of derivative these guys are holding and they are all backed by US tax payers. When it comes to that, they can print trillions according to the law. People will get screwed.
We know that from 2008.
Banks who are not part of the main group will be allowed to fail. Look at Lehman, they let that bank go under while bailing out the rest.
Lawrnce, there have been some people writing articles saying the US dollar gets strong, then weaker, then printing happens, then take your pick SDRs maybe, gold backed something or other maybe, these guys have been around a long time, they have something up their sleeve. If gold were to go thru the roof, it wouldn’t surprise me a bit that the public gets informed of thousands of tons somewhere that the banks control.
Great interview….thanks for bringing Roger back!
Chris Temple and Trader Rog both see the Greek vote as carrying critical implications for the rest of Europe. Or as CT warns Angele Merkel shouldn’t be blasé about the consequences if Greek vote does lead to an exit out of the euro. Maybe this is but THE first of those black swans we’ve all been anticipating.
We will know by the 25th of this month, Reverend. So not too long to wait for the drama to materialize if there is going to be one.
In 2014 after the dollar gold was the best performing currency.
I have a gut feeling that gold will be knocked down overnight /early morning Tuesday.
UK FTSE listed miners did well today, and did so over the Cristmas period, as London traders look to a possible topping in the USD leading to higher gold prices… so I suspect we will have one of those big gold contract dumps if gold gets too full of itself this week…
“Where it’s going”, is really not that hard to see or envision. Additionally, it was a great interview by Rodger. I do enjoy his comments and views.
The dollar is going to extend its upside bias with the FED and leveraged banking elites fighting its rise tooth and nail. The dollar which is as unsound as all of the other currencies will remain strong very likely for a period of 12-18 months before we see a significant crack to the downside.
The Unites States and its markets will remain the primary benefactor of safe haven fund flows as this world wide crisis continues to play out and bankruptcies accelerate and unplayable derivatives contracts are triggered at an exponential rate.
The Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) folks which are most all of the modern western Central Banking Elites will not be able to firewall the globe from this greater encroaching crisis and its devastation.
The entire world’s financial system has reached it apex as it relates to functionality in its current form and the global banking tentacles of control exercised through the modern cyber-war and blackmail SWIFT transaction system will slowly be phased out or rendered much-less effective in its overt geopolitical gamesmanship capabilities.
Overt criminal conduct and fully sanctioned laws allowing falsification of all proper reporting procedures governing world wide financial assets and companies were, as we now know, the beginning of the end for the banking network of counterfeit fiat regimes and their elite banking vassals.
Sure there are banks open today across the globe and ATM’s are spiting out paper currency units, and credit cards and EBT cards still function, but view this as more of a localized phenomenon being held together by all means. On the more important larger global scale the world banking system is starting to seize up again, which will lead to another 2008 liquidity crisis.
But this time, the ability to contain its domino effect will be untenable by orders of magnitude.
The decade’s old legacy of debt accumulation and the fabricated lies of servicing that debt have in reality met its intellectual and fundamental end-game. The debt limits have been reached globally. The current unacknowledged insolvencies and the ones to come next cannot be kept silenced or quite for much longer.
Next will come an open admission by national institutions of power that insolvency cannot be contained resulting in western nations remaining national public wealth being confiscated and diverted to connected powerful cronies and the war machine as a last gasp.
In short, as Rob Kirby likes to say, the dollar is already dead, it just doesn’t know it yet. It will continue its rise into a “Super Nova” ark, and then die suddenly.
The global financial reset that cannot be stopped lies dead ahead. The year 2020, give or take may be a sensible timetable to watch if global nuclear devastation can be averted before that time.
But in reality no one knows the outcome because we are dealing with deranged western psychopaths and sociopaths in positions of power that have access to National Nuclear Launch Codes both on land and at sea, including advanced space laser and scalar weapon technology .
Whether the financial transition period is guided by massive inflation or crushing deflation matters little in the end because the powerful forces of Mother Nature realigning natures axes of symmetry combined with the immutable mathematical laws of the universe will ensure the feedback loop from beginning to end will find its singularity.
And we then, start over, if we have anything to go back to.
V
With your intellect and intuition you should submit articles to, among others, Kitco.
Yes, I am serious.
Great piece V. One thing we’re overlooking in all this is Mother Nature. 2014 was a year of extraordinary extremes here in the UK as it was in other parts of the world. …The warmest year on record, the wettest with floods in places where there had been none before. Small tornados were no longer a rarity, while tidal surges wrought havoc for some coastal towns. Our climate (along with civil unrest) may yet put paid to the best laid plans of the psychos.
Thank you Andrew, always great to hear from you and always interesting to hear about things from a UK slant.
Respectfully
V
Top Vortex !
V ~ As Erasmus once rhetorically asked:
“What is the cause of all of these problems?”
It’s nice to hear from Roger again.
To Vortex: Why is the US dollar rising then, if it is going to crash? Is it the crack-up boom that is currently happening in the USA on the back of shale oil and QE?
Too much doom and gloom Vortex, I think. Interesting post though.
The powers that be dodged the bullet in the crash of 2008 and actually managed to profit from it greatly. Unless you lost your job or had to cash out your potfolio in 2008-2009 most people will not have noiced any change in circumstances in the West and their pension portfolios are back up at new highs: stocks have roared up and so have Treasury bonds.
Don’t worry about nuclear war. It is not worth worrying about. We did all that in 1980-82 and it never happened. More mature guys like Al also had that worry in 1963 and it never happened. Where will Obama find a place to play golf if he pushes the nuclear buttom. It is less fun playing golf in a cave than on the lovely landscaped lawns of Augusta Georgia for instance. Much less fun if you are back on the surface golfing in your NBC suit on a plain of plutonium irradiated sand without a nice plant in sight.
Well Rog I think the dollar can easily go to 100, Even the automatic stockkcharts.com point and figure chart had 102 as a target a couple of years ago. That was reversed but then it came back agan as the round figure 100 last year.
Al you are far too kind to this old country boy.
Thank you.
V
Vortex when old Al compliments me I always feel like a million dollars – sorry not quite the expression I was looking for!!!
Andrew,
What I should have said to big Al was thank you in the grandest sense. You’re powerful words are beyond the very concept of a compliment coming from a man of your character and stature.
I am deeply humbled by your kind words and faith in my very small contribution to mankind and for providing me and others the ability to express our views in a dynamic non-mainstream environment.
V
Nice one V – You should have called his bluff and asked for connections to be made between yourself and Kitco!! A
Never mind Roger and Al, you could buy yourself a nice cheap BMW or Mercedes over there in the USA!
I don’t know about you guys… but I am going to go to the pub.
Standby for loads of meetings in Europe of finance ministers, prime ministers and that IMF French chick from the IMF. They will stay in the best hotels, eat the finest foods and drink the finest wines. They will hold late night meetings and loads of press conferences. They will make it look as if they are doing something.
Nothing will happen. Loads of promises will be made but nothing will materialise.
The politicians and their cronies love the Eurozone as it is one never-ending gravy train for themselves and their families. But the people of Europe are fed up with it. They also are, increasingly, fed up with the Islamification of Europe by politicians from Germany to the UK and all points inbetween wanting too expand Europe into Turkey and North Africa.
The Greeks – the birth-place of democracy – might do democracy in Europe the best thing in 2,000 years on the 22nd.
Rant over.