Trader Rog opines on gold.
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Slip of the tongue. Thanks for bringing this up BDC
3-1/2 year old bowldlerized Oil Chart
shows up-trend support line being hit:
FWIW
Thanks again BDC.
I am not a technician but certainly some of our colleagues do fall into that category.
Yes — Many good analysts of all sorts here: Thanks for all you do!
Pleasure BDC
BDC, forget about chart. US government already declared that they crashed oil to sanction Russia on Monday. It had nothing to do with technicals. It is simply geo-politics.
Good point Lawrence, but technicals do seem to matter in most cases.
Charts do not lie; however, too often they are
mis-interpreted. In any case, I don’t know the
future, but simply keep track of trends.
If that base up-trend line is broken significantly
to the downside, then it’s a likely sea change.
Time’s unfolding will reveal it all for us.
If you take out the impact of manipulation, the chart is correct but there is no way to separate. It is why the manipulated market is so hard to trade.
I feel that due to the slower drilling and shut down of higher cost production, we may have a spike in oil in the next two years. There is no above ground oil to fill the gap, unlike gold and silver. The derivative also needs to be unwinded, otherwise banks will fail. I expect to see some firework.
I have given up on the dollar. Sheesh, another penny up since yesterday. Now the damn thing has gone parabolic. And the weird thing is, despite this huge move we hardly saw the needle move sending gold lower other than a few bucks. You just have to wonder how high the buck goes before it finally hits a top…..and then what happens once it gets there!
Bird, my speculation is that USDX is against Euro (57%) and Yen, Canadian dollars, Pound, Swiss Franc and Swidish Krona. Except the Krona, all the rest are in trouble. So USD is hard to drop. Plus we have a global capital flight now so people are changing other currencies to USD so dollar should be strong. After QE, this money is needed to fill the vacume. Good thing is that China’s stock market is rising and capital flight from China is light. Otherwise the rise in dollar will be stronger. I feel it is hard to know how high this dollar rise will be.
Just my 2 cents.
Worth more than 2 cents and I do agree with you, Lawrence.
Pretty much agree Lawrence. I am actually a dollar bull as you know. I had however been anticipating that a reversal was coming early in the year but what we got instead was the inverse relationship between gold and the dollar broke. It does not always pay to be contrarian during a move like this.
Haha, you are right. I am a paper money bear in general. I feel dollar would perform better than most paper currencies in the short term. However, US also get the most debt and derivative problems and its finance is highly leveraged. Its economy is also strongly distorted. So in the long term, regardless how well it performs against other papers, it should underperform hard asset. In another word, I expect inflation to continue and accelerate. Under the current duress, I feel in the not too distant future, the currency and financial market has to reset to accommodate the reality.
However, I am not gold bug. I just don’t have much choice due to the lack of control of governments.
I am not a gold bug either Lawrence. But I love the gold market because it is so interesting. You never get this kind of daily drama nor all the theatrical discussions in corn or wheat!
A quick trot around the globe via CBC Turning Point (17 minutes)
I’m pretty sure that gold wasn’t mentioned even once.
Thanks for the link, Irwin.
NOT ONCE GOLD ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CC5cWNEnTbY
How do I get some sample copies of trader Rog’s newsletter?
Euro index now standing at $1.18341
And now falling even harder to 1.177….. the dollar has gone parabolic. But that also means it is going to have a blow off top so get ready for that. I would be really surprised if this lasts longer than a few weeks.
Euro and Dollars are heading for parity. That means we will see a flood of money fleeing the Eurozone during January and getting into USD and stocks. The effect is self reinforcing and are being amplified. Each rise in the dollar just pulls in more capital. Equities are on a firm buy from that viewpoint.
But all good things come to an end. I am not wrong that the Euro and dollar get a big reversal…….I am only early. And that is no sin unless one loses all his money trying!
Where does Roger Weigand get his statistics from? I have heard him say a couple of times now that the population of the eurozone is about 800 million. Someone should tell him that its 330 million. Only half a billion of the mark.
YOU now Roger ha ha
Harry,
Having heard Roger’s discussions over the years, I think he’s also including the Euro-wannabes like Turkey and the -Stans, even the Ukraine, who do have significant trade and financial buffoonery with the EU, even if the latter won’t have them. As you know, the Eurozone is the 19 countries sharing the Euro (pop 330 million), the EU is the 28 who signed the Treaty but don’t necessarily share the currency (pop 500 million), and the rest get you close to 800 M (maybe a bit of rounding up depending upon who you want to count).
No matter how you slice it there are far too many people on this planet.
The 10 year old gap between 94-95
will likely be filled relatively soon.
Then ?????