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Wednesday and The Doctor Is In

Big Al
January 21, 2015

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Discussion
85 Comments
    Jan 21, 2015 21:48 AM

    Diss is what i tell YOU ! Way you fell blokking ME i don’t now ! We have no more free capetalime anymore ! Sorry !

      Jan 21, 2015 21:51 AM

      Franky, I tink u watch tooo much yuutoob.

      Al has been more than accommodating for you IMHO. (;-)

        Jan 21, 2015 21:54 AM

        Agreed.

        Jan 21, 2015 21:57 AM

        Most of humanity don’t know ! Day see may post day think a littel ! Nothing more ! OK BYE BYE !

          Jan 21, 2015 21:44 AM

          Forget the bye bye. YOU CANNOT LEAVE THIS SITE!

        I still think franky is ok………………..maybe he likes to keep the atmosphere a little light hearted , while passing time while gold is playing catch up from the bear hibernation period of the last three years………………………….jmho

          Jan 21, 2015 21:16 AM

          I kind of like Franky too. He takes the edge off all the arguments. He does have some weird videos some days though.

      LPG
      Jan 21, 2015 21:09 AM

      Franky,

      I love you. I truly do. I enjoy your comments. Truly.

      But…
      Butttt…
      Buuuutttt…..

      MAYBE the reason why you get blocked sometimes is because you put too many links for Youtube videos ???

      Personally, I read ALL OF your comments as I value your views – as everyone views on this site.
      BUT I almost NEVER watched the Youtube links you post (I think I watched 2 of them in the last 12 mths since I have started to go, on a daily basis, on Kereport. 2 videos, in 12mths).

      Now…. I want to be clear here:
      If I do not watch the Youtube links and the videos, it is not because of what is inside them: I CANNOT know what is inside them since I don’t watch the links !
      No: I just don’t watch them because I don’t really care about Youtube links on Kereport.

      For me, Kereport is about expressing views and opinions.
      Personally, I care about:
      * what Franky says
      * what Franky writes
      * what Franky thinks
      BUT I don’t care about Youtube videos: because these videos, they are not Franky.

      Express yourself more with your own words Franky ! Trust me, you are better when you do that without Youtube links.

      Best to you, and GL investing/trading.

      LPG

        Jan 21, 2015 21:16 AM

        Awesome reply LPG, every thinking person should be heard from, even if it is not what is called normal thinking.

          spot on………………………….j

          Jan 21, 2015 21:45 AM

          I have to agree with you Dan.

            Jan 21, 2015 21:47 AM

            Franky has endeared himself to us.

          Jan 21, 2015 21:55 AM

          Yes, I enjoy everyone’s thoughts. Franky – “Cool is the way” “Buy Buy Buy….

            Jan 21, 2015 21:14 PM

            Cool is the way! ……a Franky original.

        Jan 21, 2015 21:18 AM

        +1
        I think I’ve watched PART of one!

        Jan 21, 2015 21:03 PM

        I like the tube links and yes they are nutty but keep them coming, sometimes they are nuggets.

        Jan 21, 2015 21:43 PM

        If you think youtube videos are a problem try trutube.tv

      Jan 21, 2015 21:49 AM

      Thank you thank u ! thank you thank you for your nice support and prayers i will send POPE FRANCIS to the united states of america and to the republic in September ! To go to the Mexican border and open the gates ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lcu9NHr-QYw

    I agree with DOC on the Central Banks…………….j

    Jan 21, 2015 21:13 AM

    Hi doc,

    Looks like a change today. Maybe the sell off will go into the fed meeting for fear of what they might do.

    Are you going to hold your positions in GDX/GDXJ during this? Im guessing that you are still positive on them, but will cautiosly be watching. You had a tone of concern.

    Thanks in advance.

    Glen – you’ve called for this kind of action around this time. Good call!

      Jan 21, 2015 21:58 PM

      DF; I started to get into a lot of positions beginning in November and December—-I added less to some of them as they rose so my cost averaging is a lot lower. I remember someone on the site having concerns about that methodology since I wasn’t waiting for “confirmation or a breakout over resistance. One of the things I learned over the years is that the philosophy of investing when a breakout occurs above a major resistance level or out of a trading range often costs one a lot of money since often the breakouts are head fakes. So I take a position often when I see a double bottom at the bottom of a range or lower Bollinger band. Then I will often add a smaller amount on a break out of when the momentum indicators reflect good momentum with the odds of higher prices. GDX and GDXJ are probably too positions that I’ll hold now for the duration and add on healthy pullbacks. The reason is that the bollinger bands on the monthly charts have now turned laterally along with their 20 month MA. So they have some very solid support at those points. If they would decisively break down below the lower BB I would admit that they were going lower and would exit my positions. There are other positions I hold that don’t reflect that chart pattern and will make my decisions on them especially those that have BBs plunging yet on the monthly charts. In summery, I may now hold a lot of my positions now for the long haul since I’m at a good price point—the technicals will have to really start to look ugly for me to exit later. Hope this helps. Doc.

        Jan 21, 2015 21:36 PM

        I’m with you on the breakouts Doc. Most of the time they end up being fakeouts. Buying breakouts was a strategy that used to work years ago but not so much anymore as the strategy became too popular. Nowadays institutions will often manufacture a breakout to unload positions on retail traders still trying to use that old strategy.

        The market top in 2007 was a classic example.

          LPG
          Jan 21, 2015 21:48 PM

          +1 Gary

        Jan 21, 2015 21:22 PM

        Yes, that was me Doc. My objection really centered around the fact that too many were bottom calling and thus betting in anticipation at a time when it was clear to me that we were still within a bear market. I do agree with what you said about buying breakouts though. My comments back then were really specific to gold at that time.

          Jan 21, 2015 21:27 PM

          We are getting the same kind of talk on the site the last week. Lots of badgering and guys saying things like anyone who is not in will be left behind. Or mocking people who stated they were on the sidelines. It gets tiresome. They come out of the wood work every rally and start puffing up and chest pounding and bragging about great gains but vanish just as quick as the trend reverses. I see a decline lining up right now and my suspicion is we lose almost a 100 bucks…..possibly eventually dropping below past support. I can’t let the chest puffers put me off my game though with all the bait they put out.

            Jan 21, 2015 21:09 PM

            I agree with the comment about certain outliers showing up and pushing the “train is leaving the station” and then the harassment when you see a move up. Then they get their head handed to them when we have a move lower. Once the ECB announcement is made, I believe we see a move down in gold however a lot of the stocks have probably seen their bottom and could trade sideways/down for awhile.

    LPG
    Jan 21, 2015 21:17 AM

      going to be a lot more…………….

      Jan 21, 2015 21:17 PM

      Unreal LPG. Just read the story. And we think we have a bad trading day here or there. Can you imagine that guy though? How can he sleep? Getting wiped out to zero can’t feel very good after a fall that steep…….and then there’s going to be all those years in psychiatry.

        LPG
        Jan 21, 2015 21:35 PM

        Hello Birdman,
        Hope all’s well.

        I don’t think the guy will feel bad for long.
        Assuming he was short the CHF (which I suspect), I can see the rationalisation post blow-up:
        “yeah, you know, i was short the CHF, and the SNB moved caught us by surprise. These central bankers cannot be trusted. If it had not been this, we would still be around… And you know, we were not the only ones… some others suffered too.”

        He was probably leveraged big time, hoping to make a home run on some bets and have his G.Soros GBP moment.

        Leverage is likely what lead to his blow up. This is what leads to most people’s blow up. Yet hardly anyone wants to admit it.

        That’s why, I liked Cory’s comment today about the fact that the big guys are playing the market, so markets might continue to go higher.
        I liked his comments, but I also realized that there’s a lot of leverage in the market. A LOT. And leverage is what blows up funds, hedge funds, and ultimately brings liquidity crunches and events such as 2008.
        Nothing will be different in the future. Wether we are at 2100pts or 2500pts on S&P doesn’t make a difference: the leverage is the poison, and this is what drives asset prices down fast. Very fast.

        Best to you, and GL investing/trading to all.

        LPG

        COUNTER PARTY RISK……………….

          GOLD last man standing…………………………………:)

            Jan 21, 2015 21:33 PM

            Stop trying to scare me Jerry! I am not buying any. It’s just a damn trade.

            Bird……….no one is going to scare you ……….anybody living in Africa..has got to have big kahonas……………..lol…………………..j

            Jan 21, 2015 21:16 PM

            Jerry, I live here because it is peaceful and low stress which is better for my heart and my state of mind. Its very religious and quite conservative. There is little to fear anyway if that’s what you think. And the best part is they adore foreigners here, especially Americans and Canadians.

            Bird…….I am glad to hear your are in a safe environment…….we can all use some of that …………………..j

    LPG
    Jan 21, 2015 21:39 AM

    To me, blowing up so easily is criminal.

    They are (WERE) probably leveraged like hell with I don’t know what type of risk management in place for whatever the positions they had…

    WTF.

    Best to all, and GL investing/trading.

    LPG

      Jan 21, 2015 21:49 AM

      Hey LPG, the good part is he still has $200k left to pay himself a bonus before he is lynched.

        LPG
        Jan 21, 2015 21:55 AM

        lol Dan !

      Jan 21, 2015 21:18 PM

      He did apologize though. That covers up a lot of the sins. Ha!!!

        LPG
        Jan 21, 2015 21:35 PM

        +1 Birdman 🙂

          Jan 21, 2015 21:13 PM

          I am curious what he told his wife though. I mean, how the hell do you explain something like that to you loved ones? One thing is for sure, we must never forget the basics. EG…NEVER go all-in on anything just for starters. The other is that leverage is a killer. Folks leapt to their deaths in the crash of 29 for just this kind of thing. Maybe this is going to be a good year to avoid walking the streets in the financial district. Especially around buildings that still have windows that open to outside.

            Jan 21, 2015 21:14 PM

            Leverage = stupidity

            Jan 21, 2015 21:46 PM

            Al, what do you buy juniors for if not the leverage?

            Jan 22, 2015 22:57 AM

            Don’t buy gold stocks on margin. Pay cash so you can wait out the bear markets.

    Jan 21, 2015 21:03 PM

    Hi guys,

    Standing aside and watching most of the heavyhitters in here with hall of fame percentages show some fear is good to see. This is no knock on anyone in here. Like doc fan has expressed, I called for this moment exactly how it has played out. Maybe glen knows a thing or two. Maybe I’m off the ball. The one thing I absolutely wanted going into this meeting was talk of fear again, below 1250 numbers and even below 1200 number being talked about etc etc. The miners were way ahead of themselves and the gaps have mostly filled with hui gap yet to fill on the weekly.. Me guts and me knowledge tells me this is a really good bear trap. Personally I’d love to see an initial down tomorrow followed by an explosive up into the open. One thing is certain, I commend the ones who have taken profit even if there remains more upside. This is not an easy position to be in. For myself, i believe in my work and believe in my ability to read a chart the way glen does.

    Nothing has changed with me. 1350-1400 first then a correction. The low is in to many still believe it’s not. That good enough for me.

      LPG
      Jan 21, 2015 21:19 PM

      Hello Glenfidish,

      I like this angle:
      “The low is in to many still believe it’s not.”
      I never thought about this perspective…

      Thanks & Best to you,

      LPG

        Jan 21, 2015 21:37 PM

        LPG,

        Sorry for late reply.

        Thanks and congrats on the profits made 🙂

      Jan 21, 2015 21:49 PM

      My take is that Eoro may have bottomed, at least for quite a while. If they really have 50 billion a month QE, I feel it is the right amount to keep Euro zone together and yet not to have high inflationary effect for a year or so. Then the fear will fade and Euro will go back. How high it can go, depend what fringe countries like Greece will do. If they behave, Euro can go quite high. Otherwise, Euro will fluctuate. IMHO.

        Jan 21, 2015 21:50 PM

        Sorry. If Euro stabilizes and Dollar goes down, gold may have much further to go. Reason is that people realizes that the world cannot live without QE and US may not have enough gold to keep capping gold price.

      Jan 21, 2015 21:21 PM

      I agree Glen (and I think you do know a thing or even three!). As I just posted elsewhere, I think this is a bear trap, too. It looks bullish that GDXJ could plunge $1.80 from today’s high and still not get the last nickel needed to fill the weekly chart gap. I think that big daily chart gap on the 15th is just gonna have to wait.

        Jan 21, 2015 21:21 PM

        Thanks Matt! Busy day today, had no time to post.

        I agree that gdxj can always come back to fill the gap.

        Are you seeing many gaps across the board from 15th?
        Also Hui weekly gap needs to come back as well.

        Which scenario do you see more so for the bullish case.

        1. Gap down hui and miners fill gaps turn up hard leaving long tails
        2. Open up sustained price up movement (Come back another day and fill gaps)
        3. Head down for a second day and fill gaps close lower to neutral( Next day move up)

        ?

          Jan 21, 2015 21:51 PM

          #2 looks a little more likely to me for now —at least for the big gap at 27.20 for GDXJ.

            Jan 22, 2015 22:15 AM

            Thanks for your response. Please give updates or even a chart as what you might envision if we do strike 1350 first. Id really like to know if 1350/1400 is triggered what your retrace would look like. Id think 1250 maximum pull back.

    Jan 21, 2015 21:11 PM

    Doc, you are right about the central banks which were created by bankers to bail themselves out from their bad speculations. They are vampires that suck the blood from the rest of us. The collapse of the world financial system may have already begun with huge moves in the Swiss franc and the collapse in oil price. There’s a 1000 trillion in derivatives out there about to blow up and collapse the house of cards. Buy gold and silver.

    Jan 21, 2015 21:22 PM

    Sorry to have to disagree with you on this show Doc. I am dead against going back to a hard money currency though. Worst possible thing that could happen. And what is money anyway? Just a state of mind, confidence it works and a belief system.

      Jan 21, 2015 21:06 PM

      Bird, I don’t believe we’ll ever go back to a “hard money currency” however we may move to a basket of currencies based on some $ of hard assets as a backing. We may also move to trade based on a gold backed bond system instead of trade based on one reserve currency and the current banking system. Something will have to change dramatically since the experiment of the past one hundred years has been a failure.

        Jan 21, 2015 21:06 PM

        $=%—sorry about that.

          Jan 21, 2015 21:39 PM

          Whew, thank goodness. I thought you had fallen in with the “honest money” crowd for a minute. That was close. I do agree with you, by the way. There is a strong possibility gold plays a role in the next currency agreements. Where I differ with most is that I really don’t believe it will ever circulate in our lifetimes again but rather will end up stored for the most part in the respective CB’s of each country. Silver is a wild card though and would not get the same status. It’s just too important a commodity for industry.

        Jan 22, 2015 22:01 AM

        J. Pierpoint Morgan knew more about money than we do, and he said,”Gold is money, and nothing else.” Paper money is just a derivative of gold. I prefer real money.

    Jan 21, 2015 21:25 PM

    On another note, Teck leapt 7% off that double bottom we discussed two days ago. No doubt partly on news of the rate reduction from the Bank of Canada. Sweet move but its still a long way from the near 60 bucks it was trading at.

      Jan 21, 2015 21:08 PM

      I’ve been watching TCK—-I believe it still has further to fall and then will be a buyer.

        Jan 21, 2015 21:41 PM

        As will I Doc. That was almost my exact comment the other day. I see TCK going right back to around the 5 dollar area and that should be about when we get our final bottom in gold. Should happen this year.

          Jan 21, 2015 21:03 PM

          BINGO!

            Jan 21, 2015 21:05 PM

            OK…you get a big hug, man!

          Jan 21, 2015 21:06 PM

          However, Bird; gold may have bottomed already. The PMs often do prior to the bottoms in commodities. I believe the odds are pretty good that it’ll happen again—especially with my belief that commodities will bottom sometime in the March-May spring time.

        LPG
        Jan 21, 2015 21:52 PM

        Morality: buy TCK on a TKO…
        Ok…stupid joke…
        S-o-r-r-y 🙂
        LPG

          Jan 21, 2015 21:07 PM

          Funny. And about right too LPG. I mean from 60 all the way back to 5 is a hell of a ride down the elevator shaft.

          watch it …LPG…….or the catfish will be requesting your dismissal……….lol

            LPG
            Jan 21, 2015 21:11 PM

            🙂 J-The Long-OOTB

            Best to you,

            LPG

    Jan 21, 2015 21:43 PM

    great richard doc today

    bb
    Jan 21, 2015 21:09 PM

    I agree with you guys that gold should play a part within a basket of currencies.
    A lot of debt can be eliminated with a gold revaluation.

    Does anyone know of a “dow down” etf on the Canadian markets?
    I seem to be having trouble finding one, I found an s&p down, but its not only s&p.
    Thx Just might be an idea to let a little dow down cash ride a bit.

      Jan 21, 2015 21:33 PM

      Here’s a list. Sorry but it doesn’t really answer your question though. Horizon does not have what you want. Why not just buy the US ETF?

      Inverse ETF List
      http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/short-etfs.html

        bb
        Jan 21, 2015 21:16 PM

        I don’t trade the american markets, it offers a lot I wish were available on Canadian markets. Not interested in the tax issues, I trade with a tfsa, no taxes at all. lol

    Jan 21, 2015 21:43 PM

    What happens with currency in the future will depend on China, It’s their time to call the shots as they get stronger and continually make the right moves. The way they are accumulating gold tells me one thing only, their time is coming, I would be more worried about how or if they will share the future.

      Jan 21, 2015 21:53 PM

      Another thing that bothers me is the way that China is accumulating gold in such an aggressive matter rather then letting it flow into their country by being economically strong. Some of the posters here feel that we will see bonds backed by gold or a basket of currencies but I don’t believe China shares those beliefs because they are hoarding in a way that they don’t seem to want anything other then their choice and The West is so far removed from The Asian way of doing things that we are making the bed we must lie in ourselves.

        REMEMBER DT………….the guy who accumulated all those tungsten bars………$200 million……wonder what happened to him…I think he was Chinese…………………..j……

    Jan 21, 2015 21:50 PM

    “And what is money anyway? Just a state of mind.”
    First of all money is only gold and silver. Everything else is currency and currency is not money. Currency is a tradeable statistic that people use to cheat each other with instead of using money.

      Jan 22, 2015 22:04 AM

      J.P. Morgan said, “(Only) Gold is money, and nothing else.” That’s all you need to know.

        Jan 22, 2015 22:30 AM

        +1
        It’s not true because Morgan said it, Morgan said it because it’s true.

          Jan 22, 2015 22:58 AM

          I think he had a little self interest. Don’t you?

            Jan 22, 2015 22:37 PM

            No I don’t. He said it just before his crowd pull off the creation of the Fed. The last thing they would want to keep in people’s consciousness is the knowledge that only gold is money.