Comments on QE in Europe
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Mario Draghi PARTY ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nATzWwqOHmk
Franky PARTY ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVhajq7TFkY
๐
Luv’
LPG
Hope you guys have a good subwoofer for that one! Quite a thump from my Harmon Kardons.
๐ Matthew.
I consider myself as an audiophile. And there’s one thing that really puzzles me.
How come >90% of the people who I’ve seen own HK gear (speakers, receivers etc…) don’t spell it correctly (my observation comes from looking at people who are selling their gear and how they spell it) ?
I am not mocking you. Seriously, this is something I noticed over and over and that puzzles meโฆ
Best,
LPG
That is interesting, LPG. Thanks for pointing that out. There’s no chance I would have caught that, sad to say (which is very unlike me) ๐ . In my case, it probably has something to do with the fact that mine were purchased on a whim, not the usual research. I was looking at Bang & Olufsen when I stumbled on the HKs. I should stick with the ones I can spell, like Krell!
I just thought of a possible explanation for the >90% you mentioned. Maybe it’s because we’re talking music and the word subconsciously makes us think harmon-y.
Hello Matthew,
Interesting thought about Harmon-y. Could be a reason.
FWIW, I think (H)ArmAn-i(y).
๐
Best and have a good WE,
LPG
Haha, have a good weekend!
M
2008 was the start of the financial hurricane. We have been in the eye of the storm for several years. Now the back side of the storm is coming and the banks will fail. Currencies will collapse. Iran will have nukes. Fear will drive gold to heights undreamed.
I wish I had better news.
This fact isnโt getting enough mention. Gold was EUR 920 in early November, and today itโs EUR 1145. Thatโs a respectable 20% increase, and we arenโt done yet. In other words, Gold in currencies other than $$ is red hot.
Are you buying gold in euros or buying gold in dollars?
neither
Just noticed the dollar………….really strong up 1.47………….
The euro looks fugly; is this breakdown a trap?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XEU&p=M&st=1981-09-07&en=today&id=p64238162871&a=386011767&listNum=1
Looks fugly indeed Matthew.
So far, I’ve been wrong on my view that we’d get a reversal vs.the USD when the QE news would be out.
Me thinking MAYBE MAYBE MAYBE the reversal occurs on Monday after the Greek vote – even if the outcomes looks “a given”.
But again, so far, I’ve been wrong on this simple call. And that’s why I don’t trade currencies ๐
Best to all, and GL investing/trading.
LPG
I also said Euro may stabilize and up but it was said to be 50 billion not 60. It is quite bit larger.
This looks like a good forkin’ place for a reversal to me!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XEU&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p57867940278&a=371818895
I suspect euro should hit a bottom after Greece vote. This global flight to safety is getting old. But I have to wonder are they going to have euro QE version 2,3,4?
Having said what I said above, looks to me like the EURO/USD flush today (Friday) to 1.11145 (on my software) has the marks, in my book, of a capitulation flush.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this marked an intermediate low.
I write “intermediate” as I am not sure how low the Euro will go in the future vs. the USD and I remain open-minded about it. However, I would suspect that this 1.11145 was a low for the next days/weeks.
JMHO on the matter, and again, keep in mind I don’t trade currencies – for a reason ๐
Best to all, and GL investing/trading.
LPG
And for the record, I’m all out of my SLV Jan 2016 Calls.
Sold the last 1/4 today (Friday).
All-in: +67% on them. Not as “good” as I thought, and lower than what I made on the GLD Calls, but it’s ok. Will take that.
Best to all, and GL investing/trading.
LPG
Bear traps and be careful they are everywhere as of today ๐
Nice that you put ECU in that chart. Beautiful Inverse head and shoulders formation. It will bottom when dollar tops.
glen
Glen – can you give me your take on IAG’s oil hedges?
OIL HEDGES
Fuel is a key input in our mining operations. To mitigate the risk of price fluctuations, particularly in volatile markets, we enter into derivative contracts to hedge a portion of the fuel we expect to consume. A portion of the exposure remains unhedged so that particularly in a falling commodity price environment the Company can continue to benefit from further price declines. At the end of 2014, the following zero cost contracts were in place covering 2015 to 2017:
For 2015, 73% of fuel exposure hedged at a price of $75 – $95/barrel of WTI crude
For 2016, 75% of fuel exposure hedged at a price of $68 – $95/barrel of WTI crude
For 2017, 50% of fuel exposure hedged at a price of $71 – $95/barrel of WTI crude
The price range, or collar, protects the Company in a rising price environment by locking in a ceiling price, allows the Company to trade at the spot price within the boundary of the range and locks in a floor price, all at a zero cost. Subsequent to entering into these future contracts, oil prices continued to decline significantly, resulting in non-cash unrealized losses of $49.9 million being recorded in the fourth quarter. This means that the losses have not been realized, but only reflect what the loss would be were the contract to have been exercised, in this case, below the floor price. Should oil prices begin to recover over the three year duration of the contracts, these unrealized losses could potentially reverse.
I believe it will turn out to be a smart choice. Although they should have waited a tad longer to lock in cheaper prices, it was a gamble and I believe the prices that have been locked will look great in 2-3 years time.
Remember that for 2105 you must add the remaining 27% that I believe will be locked in at around these prices currently. Say give or take 40-45 a barrel.
When you include the 27% at lower prices then your 2015 75-95 comes down. All this while gold is going up.
I think they will be ok.
Hope this helps.
I meant 2015
Going into debt might be a good gamble.
I refer to Robert Kiosaki, probly have it spelled wrong.
Gold is $1600.00 CDN .-up $300 in three months.
I buy in Canadian dollars.
Doc,
I agree 100% with your analysis. Very level headed rationale. There is absolutely no reason to chase anything in the PM sector at this time.
PM stocks in general are acting negatively in my view, of course after a nice run that has provided nice profits for the nimble among us. But they appear to be signaling that a short-term correction is approaching. Maybe not a large correction but possibly an excellent swing trade scenario.
Nothing in the PM stock sector is a buy and hold at the moment. Long-term physical gold and silver bullion would qualify as a buy and hold, but not meant as a trade.
To the chagrin of many here that spends every waking moment fretting over every penny move up or down in the metals need to let the market tell the story and the story is that we are clearly in a traders market/cycle and it will very likely remain that way for months. Take advantage of the swings.
Buy on weakness and sell on strength.
This whole economy is turned on its head: You get paid interest (points on your credit card) for spending and nothing in interest on your savings accounts. The shift was subtle, and before you knew it the transition was complete.
The centrral banks and runaway governments have out done themselves yet again. The best they can do now is delay the inevitable by monetizing debt and giving it a pretty name: Q.E.; but in the end these institutions fail, but take our money in the process. They already come up with polite names, like “buy in”. It’s not a question of “if” but “when” it all comes tumbling down. They are running out of everything from hot air to highly leveraged naked short sales, so I think the fiscal and monetary train wreck isn’t far off.
In polite circles, they’ll call it’remarkable and incredible’; but more accurately, it was ‘corrupt and nefarious’. The robber barons knew what they were doing and got rich doing it. There were no mistakes–just unbridled greed married to unbridled power.
Matt,
Gaps have filled ๐
5 day inverted head and shoulders on gold..Its going to move fast and soon.
It’s looking good to me. Btw, Bob Moriarty had some things to say about IAG this morning:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty012315.html
Matt,
Although Letwin has under performed his predecessor, Iamgold is a giant! The volume alone they produce at above 1300 gold will easly bring in a hoard of cash.
This case is a pin drop for them. I expect Iamgold to buy them out at some point.
Bob is obviously invested with santa.
Interesting. I don’t know the company but what you say makes sense to me.
The explode higher as the price goes up. There grades are ok and there all in sustaining has been coming down month to month. So when gold goes down they get crushed but when gold goes up, there production is so large that there revenue is up the roof.
Hello Glenfidish,
Which settings do you use for the chart to see the pattern.
Can’t manage to “see it”.
Cheers,
LPG
Glenfidish,
Let me reformulate:
Which settings do you use for the chart to see the pattern, please ?
๐
Cheers,
LPG
LPG,
For Gold itself I use gold price website.
I go back and forth watching the 10 minute chart and longer term chart. Currently the 5 day chart looks good. Notice the inverted head and shoulder formation. 1285 give or take needs to hold.
For my stocks I use td brokerage/stockcharts
Wti/Crb free websites on live prices
Glenfidish,
Thanks for these details. Noted.
Best,
LPG
Anytime ๐
Gold just crossed above the 50 minute average and that usually means a move up.
At 10:56 am Gold turned and began it’s assault up on the 10 min chart!
Toronto,Ontario time
January 23, 2015
This dip is for buying, in my opinion. GDXJ dipped to the 13 day EMA and the uptrend line and reversed. The action is fine even if it manages to break the short term uptrend, fill the 1/15 gap and test the 55 day EMA.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=0&dy=28&id=p30372300720&a=386146110
At present, the investors are still very nervous. Gold equities drop fast with any small dip on the metals.
Yes, and that is very much a good thing to see after 30-40% gains in a month. Is anyone here besides me and Glen bullish at this moment? It doesn’t seem like it.
I have now sold my GLD and SLV options, but I haven’t trimmed any position on my PM stocks in the past week.
Many are off their highs of a few days ago, but so far, I have seen nothing to worry me so far based on my personal reading of their respective charts.
As a matter of fact, I have lined up some buy orders today. Hope we correct a tad more. But I agree w. Matthew: when stocks go up 20,30,40% in the space of a few weeksโฆ they need to catch their breadth. PM stocks or not. People take profits.
Best to all, and GL investing/trading
LPG
Thanks for sharing, LPG, I value your take on things.
Best,
M
LPG,
I believe your tactics will be rewarded. Your one smart Lad ๐
cheers
Good point! I feel so alone in here without you Matt ๐
๐ฎ ๐ We’ll get through this, buddy, I promise.
Hey don’t leave me out ๐
I value your views just the same, Glen!
I am bullish but I am not buying now since I loaded everything I can on the low, more than I wanted. I will sell some gold silver funds to buy oil in the next few months. It is just for myself not advice for others.
When going through hell, keep going.
I knew that you are on the right side, Lawrence, but I was talking about staying committed to the miners for more short term gains (trading positions, of course).
I have to stick to the miners since I have very few of them. I loaded all ETFs at the low and sold some miners I have since I was not sure they could survive.
CRB next target 210
The CRB is down 81% since 2000 when priced in gold. THAT is deflation in REAL terms. It also proves that gold is not just any commodity.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CRB:$GOLD&p=M&st=1981-09-07&en=today&id=p19394770795&a=370277015
In dollars, it is still up 20% from its 1999-2001 lows. THAT is inflation in dollar currency terms.
The P&F chart has a preliminary price objective of 124!
Almost forgot… lol.
OMG your saying CRB can go as low as 124?
That’s the P&F target. For perspective, consider this. For gold, the P&F is 1570; for silver it is 2 (not a typo). It’s just another tool that has its place and can work well.
I’ve always wanted to learn p&F.
So, what do you think? Are you gonna buy silver when it hits 2? ๐
Load the boat ๐
Yeah, me too. Of course it’ll be a row boat at that point. ๐
Matthew,
You know, I just thought about this $2 on silver and thought “Can’t happen”.
Actually, in a market dislocation event – such as 2008 but magnified – I believe that anything is possible. Truly.
As we know, it’s not price nor value that will matter, but liquidity. If liquidity disappears, price discovery can be scary.
My 2 cts.
Best to all,
LPG
Low volume is dominating this drop. Matt spoke of a big move yesterday kinda like the swiss vote move. At any moment we can have a big move.
Just saying
Matt/LPG/Lawrence/etc
Im in the camp and convinced that the greeks will stay in the euro zone and not default for the time being. I believe this puts the floor on euro and euro will bounce higher after that vote.
Just my two cents.
OOPS. Betting on politics is a gamble. If I were them, I would may choose to leave. Instead I will try to be more disciplined. However, do you think EU wants Greece. Germans seem getting tired and increasingly pissed off by this failed country.
Sorry, I mean I may not choose to leave if I am Greece. Busy day I will stop typing.
Lawrence,
You’re bringing a good point, which I had in mind.
I think that at some point, the question is NOT ONLY “does Greece wanna stay or not” but ALSO “have the big boys had enough of Greece or not”.
Then, it just becomes an opportunity cost IMHO.
Just my 2cts.
LPG
I believe that the euro will bounce higher after the vote whichever way it goes. If Greece does leave, it would be like getting a bad asset off the books —a relief.
Politics is a gamble. If I were them, I may not choose to leave.
Mario Draghi ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jPE8hqrhOw