Commentary from Chris and then “back to the mountains”
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Great Interview Al & Chris. I do think pension funds will be looking for yield and seek out dividend paying stocks. Not a bad place to be, but there are a number of companys that my have to lower their dividends in 2015 because they are not as solid as their stock prices may indicate. 2015 will be the year we start seeing in certain sectors a number of household names in trouble.
In a addition, you are both so right about it being a stock-pickers market. As far as that relates to the miners, I am most comfortable currently with specific companies in 3 groups of miners:
1) My favorite are smaller producers (like Claude) that have active mines, UPSIDE improving economics and cost containment, UPSIDE from their exploration targets, and management with a track record. Most of these stocks are insanely undervalued, and later this year and into 2016 the marketplace will re-rate these.
2) Streaming companies – I think this business model, the success, and the ability to survive tough markets due to residual income streams from Royalties and Streaming Agreements are a must. (Silver Wheaton, Royal Gold, Sandstorm Gold, and Franco Nevada are the main players but there are new companies forming)
3) Exploration and Project Generating companies – In this group there are just too many and most will fail or just don’t have the ability to raise money in these markets and 90% will be out of business in 10 years. However, there are a few gems in this bunch that will have the largest percentage gains, and will either be bought out or have one of their projects purchased by Mid-tier producers or Majors. The few good companies with good projects, good resource estimates in place, Prefesibility or Feasibility studies completed or near-completed, $3-$10 million in cash to survive the next few years, and especially ones in a Joint-Venture situation or some partnership with a larger Mid-Tier or Major already. Many of these are priced so low it makes your head turn to do the math, on stock price versus ounces in the ground/cost to pull metals out of the ground. Some are sitting on a fortune, and will be take-out targets later this year and next. Exeter and International Tower Hill Mines come to mind.
I should clarify that Exeter and International Tower Hill Mines really don’t have the partnerships with Majors at this point, (but everyone is watching their deposits grow and know they’ll be up for grabs soon). However, there are number of companies that have strategic alliances and JV work on properties that lend themselves to takeovers down the road.
Even a company like Rye Patch, featured on this site, is attractive from the standpoint that they are in a safe jurisdiction (Nevada) with an income stream from Coeur from the NSR and a number of resources they continue to drill out and define. With the rate that Coeur (CDE) is gobbling up smaller companies, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them take out Rye Patch down the road and recoup that NSR they are paying them.
Regardless there are some interesting stories not just in Gold and Silver, but in Base Metals, Oil, and Uranium like this where the Major is partnered, partially invested in financing or in stock ownership, and make these smaller exploration plays prime suspects for a takeover.
Good luck to all in 2015!
Ditto Chips. Going back to the mountains Al? Are you and Cathy closet preppers?!
He is digging his bomb shelter………..or his silver hole…………
I better say …..silver shelter……………
Chips, Reverend and Jerry,
The mountains always have and always will put life into perspective for me. Know why? Because it shows me that God is and always will be in charge.
Best
Amen Al – enjoy your weekend!
Thats a scary comment Al.
GO TELL IT ON THE MOUNTAIN………………………
N0.109 in your song book……
Actually it is #110!
always a day late and a dollar short………………….lol
Here is the LATEST FROM the “Guerilla Economist” (Sandu)……RUSSIA AND CHINA R GIVEN TWO CHOICES..Number one: overtly and covertly (if at all possible) – steer quickly and decisively from the US Dollar in a way that is geo-politically/economically feasible as possible. or WORLD WAR 111…according to him…things come to a head in late 2015 and 2016….I know, I know – analogous to Jim Willie – but you know what THAT IS THE ONLY SCENARIO that makes sense…unfortunately, the US dollar has become an infected/rotten tooth that must be pulled from the mouth of global dominance – it wont be pretty. Dont get me wrong – I am an American through and through – but if I was China, Russia, etc…I would have started this process along time ago – the writing has been on the wall for years and years – THE ONLY THING CONSTANT IS CHANGE – AND CHANGE IS A COMIN!…I even mentioned this in 2012 at the CRIC when BIG AL was hosting a Q AND A session there. Remember, Al thats where we meant 3 years ago next month – wow!! Anyway, ANYBODY that thinks the US Dollar has years and years to live in global hegemony – is lliving in a fantasy land – and I have gold bars with tungsten centers I will sell you at spot price…:)
Pretty much agree with you Marc. I mean, how can a sane person disagree?
SD, thy have been preparing for years now.
They now are working on payment systems so they don’t require swift.
Im sure everyone around here knows that.
Personally I think its normal, the reserve currency changes about every 100 years so this is nothing new.
Russia China etc will know that, they could just be preparing and nothing sinister about it at all.
True..bb….true
Agree bb
Off message: Sen John McCain at his finest.
Henry got what he deserved…………..and MCcain………little cain…..to boot….
Mccain needs to go drink some of his wife’s coke………
DITTO……Jerry…ditto….
Matthew ….are you having one of those George Jefferson moment…….
I hope so J! 😉 lol
Matthew (professor..:) said with admiration…thanks for ALL YOUR invaluable insight and info on this site that you so generous keep providing…all the best to you and your wife – my firend!…..NOW can anybody tell me if they have an opinion on Spanish Mountain Gold…I think they will or are a casualty of this market???…thks
I really appreciate that Marc. You’re welcome. I will take a look at Spanish Mountain Gold. All the best to you and yours, mi amigo.
M
Marc, do you own it already or just thinking about buying it?
Matthew
GULP….I own some shares already…..:(
I don’t like that it has a lot of shares outstanding and very little cash, but I am wondering what I might be missing when I look at its directors and management.
At 3 cents it’s trading where it was in 2002-03 and 2008. Between 2003 and 2006, it went up 8173%. Between 2008 and 2011, it went up 2750%. Currently, it would have to go up 1100% just to trade at book value.
So I see no reason to sell it now.
If we are where I think we are in the scheme of things, I don’t see why it can’t follow the trajectory depicted by my green arrow:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPA.V&p=M&yr=13&mn=11&dy=22&id=p86122099030&a=387441081
I’ve seen much worse specs in this space!
Does anyone else have an opinion on it?
Thanks Matthew!!…This was a speculative explorer that our OLD FRIEND Peter Grandich really liked…….it was on his list…
Timehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_hYdywoV_Q&list=PLT8LeN8XJgVbvEYuT5EKdG8IbvhcFHYww for some Crosby, Nash, and Stills
Awesome DT..I am not a huge fan of them but I can certainly appreciate their artistic genious..saw them live on AXS cable TV here in SD abut mid last year – and let me tell you – they still sounded GREAT -incredible. They did “judy blue eyes” for the first time live – they said – in years..because of its complex vocal arrangements….let me tell you THEY NAILED IT!!…My favorite song of theirs is “Southern Cross”…I LOVE that song!!…:)
judy in the sky with diamonds………………
SDMarc,
Southern Cross is awesome!
The best to you and your Family!!
Jody D
YEAH! Jody D is back in the house!!! All right Jody D!!
IF WE GET A 5 HANDEL ON THE BDI, with the DOW JONES down big today, a 5 HANDEL on the BDI next week, you got to wonder what the DOW will look like because TRADERS KNOW, they are watching the BDI……………….REMEBER, THE BDI IS A SOLID MEASUREMENT OF WORLD SUPPLY AND DEMAND !!!!
ALSO THE FED sent one of their BIG GUNS JOHN WILLIAMS out there today ON CNBC to talk this market up, AND IT HAD NO EFFECT……………..TRADERS ARE WATCHING THE BALTIC DRY INDEX AND OIL, TRUST ME.
BIG JOHN……..stood 6 ft 6 , weighed 285 , wide at the shoulders , kind of narror at the hip, and no gave any lip to Big John………………BIG JOHN….BIG BAD JOHN………….1960 singer unknown……………………
Jimmy Dean!
He never did make it as a singer………….now the sausage is another story…..
How is it you know all those old songs………………………..lol
Jimmy Dean
Great line/title for his article: WALL STREET ANALYSTS ARE GOOD AFTER ALL; JUST BUY WHAT THEY HATE…yep! Pater Tennebrarum – from the ACTING MAN…:)
Sorry..NOT ‘good”…but insert “USEFUL”…makes more sense….
http://www.outsiderclub.com/the-bull-market-is-about-to-get-slaughtered/1398….Here you guys go!!!….Chew on this…but dont get speared by the JAGGED EDGES..on the chart..pretty unstable I would say…kinda like a cliff made mostly lose soil and sand…
Marc…….you have been around to much of that SD real estate……..you need some of that rolling stone gathers no moss from sunny Irishland………
DANG BIRD……………1285…………L0^0KING GOOD FOR NEXT WEEK……….
I THINK we have a greased greek swan …………..The GREEKS say to heck with a loan……….forget it…………..NEW DEAL……NO PAY….
Can anyone say DEFAULT……..de Euro……going de way of the doo doo bird…..(not you bird)………………..
Jerry, it’s nice of them to want a new deal but they can’t pay no matter what terms they get. The Greeks have been a failure since they developed Democracy 3000 years ago.
Yes, you are correct…….but, they did give us some great ruins to look at, along with some beautiful island to vacation on………………….j.
DT,
Yes.,but also….absolutlely no real substantial economic base in Greece…Russia and China will have to change their diapers and spoon feed the Greeks…nothing bad about the Greeks at all – DONT get me wrong..it is just their economy isnt conducive to providing their fair share to the Eurozone” (blown) eperiment..I mean growing olives will only get you so far!!!…:)
OH I’M SORRY TRADERS ARE ALSO WAYCHING THE BOND MARKET…………..LOOK AT THE 10 YEAR……………1.64%……..NOT GOOD PEOPLE ………THIS WHOLE THING IS REALLY FALLING APART………….KEY INDEXES GOING FORWARD, BDI,BONDS AND OIL !!!!
Bill Gross……….is not going to be a billionaire much longer…….lights out…….bye,bye bill……………………………
I AGREE, LOL………………..AND HE THINKS THAT THE FEB WILL RAISE INTEREST RATES BY THIS SUMMER………….WHAT A FOOL, EVEN IF THEY DO, THEY WILL REVERSE THAT MOVE IN A MATTER OF DAYS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bill…..is singing the same song for to long…………..bonds like at 1%… the rule of 72 says……….he will double his money in 72 years………..like duh……
Good one…Jerry..dont worry though he is stacking enough gold and silver behind the scenes to start his OWN sovereign country!! HA!!
Gross KNOWS his time is numbered!! He is just jawboning the market like the FED..its alll BULLS_____ unitil everything just falls apart! I mean I heard somewhere – OH YEAH FROM Greg MANNARIINO’s podcast (the guy is great!!) that two of the more prominent FED governors have stacked EACH over ONE million dollar of GOLD BULLION!! Oh yeah, they are real, real, real HAWKISH all right!…Last one out the door – PLEASE TURN OUT THE LIGHTS!!…:)
no mo gold for the Bird. He probably sold all of his in 2002
HE SOLD his gold to get that Ranch in Africa………BOUGHT SIGHT UNSEEN…….he is such a trusting lad…………Now he is raising turtles , easier to round up………(just have Friday nite fun………….appreciate all you guys……………j……..
It’s official Toronto is the best city in The World, even better then San Diego, HA!
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/toronto-is-officially-the-best-city-in-the-world-according-to-the-economist-10012681.html
ROFO and DOFO aka Rob and Doug Ford didn’t screw us up!
like who wants to live in TORONTO……except Blue Jays…………….
Jerry, the poor souls who live in Buffalo would gladly trade places.
I’ve got an igloo in my back yard, I’ll bet you don’t even care, nobody cares!
Sorry, Irish Tony cares, but the rest of the posters don’t care so IT gets to spend the first night in “The ICE Hotel.”
I think IT is busy keeping The Guinness Brewery in business.
DT ,,,,now that is a funny one………….AL, is looking for a new place to visit with romance and adventure…………send him a brochure…….Tell, him you server wine and appetizer …………..Make sure you collect in advance………………j
I think he likes tweekies and ripple…………..sure to be a hit……..
DT..& J…Whats this ?…have a go at the paddy day !!!….Love you people loads……
Remember…NEVER LET THE BASTARDS GET TO YOU.
DT, that hurt…no blows below the waist please!! hahaha!
SO MUCH FOR THE LONDON FIX…..at 1260……gold had a nice day………
London fix will be a thing of the past………….see KWN…………
About a week ago Bob M wrote an article about Gold Canyon, I have been in and out of this stock a number of times so I am familiar with their projects. This time I think Bob M nailed it again anyway so far it’s been a great ride!
IN DENMARK they will pay you to take out a MORTGAGE………zerohedge.
Gold priced in Dow looking good…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$INDU&p=M&yr=16&mn=3&dy=0&id=p73135201238&a=371401926
So it looks like the Greeks are going to tell the EU to shove it.
I wonder what Angular sMerkle is thinking now…
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/01/greece-will-not-accept-bailout.html
And just think what that will do for the price of gold.
My 1268 area held this week. Now if gold can manage to close next week just $10 higher, we’ll have a significant breakout.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62093053664&a=361926967
One more healthy back test for silver:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=W&yr=6&mn=6&dy=0&id=p42064117032&a=379470358
…BUT- silver was rejected at resistance on a log scale chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p67079633085&a=375430045&listNum=1
Silver back tests its pitchfork trigger line:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p37141100613&a=370837400
Perfect back test for SLV:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p87260210846&a=384683617&listNum=1
Looks like a lot of small companies are on a serious up swing. I grabbed a 100k of GCU.to and some larger caps. Boy GCU sure puked out the volume in the bottoming procees. These tanked oil prices may be going into the bottom line on the miners?!!
GCU?
Watch out for bears, Big Al! (not the ones in the market so much, the ones in the forest) Haha.
Thanks for the commentary guys. As always much appreciated.