Five or Maybe Ten Thousand Dollar Gold? Gary thinks so!
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Great interview. I agree with Gary’s point about Gold just putting in a short term daily cycle low and expect the 1240 level to be the first layer of support. When Gold rallies into mid February it has to get above the most recent high of 1305 (intraday high was 1307), so 1308 would be the first layer of resistance. Peter Hug, Gary Wagner, and Jordan Roy-Byrne all tagged 1323 as another layer of resistance a few weeks back, but to me the 1347 prior peak and the March 14th peak at 1382 are the major resistance levels that must be taken out to confirm the bottom is in and that the larger long term PM bull market is continuing on up.
I am not going to rule out Sinclair or Gary’s call for $5000 gold, because it logically makes sense if you look at the sheer amount of printing that has been done and the percentage increase in gold in the past during those kinds of environments. However, I think most on this site would agree that 1900 Gold and $49 Silver was not the top and both metals are going higher than their 2011 levels in the next 3-5 years.
Are we all ruling out 1150, 1050 and even 1000 USD now?
Absolutely not. I think Gold will have a bigger correction starting in March – May timeframe where it could easily retest 1180 and 1137-1140 one last time. If those levels don’t hold then 1050 and 1000 would be back on the table.
However, if Gold would rally strong enough to over 1347 and especially over 1382, then I would feel as confident as one can in such a crazy market saying the 3 1/2 year Gold bear bottom is in. If Gold can do that in February, then the March Madness or sell in May events will be more muted and those lower levels will likely not be seen again.
It all depends on when Gold will put in this stinking short term bottom and rally for a few weeks like a bat out of hell. If this process doesn’t hurry up, then I agree with Gary that the short term cycle is running out of time to finish this rally before an overall trend change.
Thanks for clarifying.
Yes, these next 3 months will really set the tone for:
A) resuming the long term uptrend, showing the that 1137 Nov low (which happened in overnight trading) was the low and larger cycle up beings
** or
B) failing to validate a mid range uptrend above 1347 and 1382 prior peaks, and a confirmation of a slow and grinding further leg down into Gold’s bottom this late Spring.
That should have said next 3 weeks (not months)
Don’t rule out the Fed printing money with an expiration date on it–kinda like milk!
Ala: Working Paper of the Richmond Federal Reserve.
After all, it’s only paper money.
Bob uk I learned in life that when bears turn into bulls ;that is when you should short the market.Contrarian indicator.Retail an large investors are usually on the wrong side of the boat.It is the commercial trader that you should track.They have all the interest to be right.
Not sure if we are seeing that much of retail investors getting into gold/silver or the conventional markets at the present time? Are we seeing that?
I am starting to see…..GOLD WANTED SIGNS , WILL BUY GOLD….,
Bob anything is possible don’t worry there are many who still believe below 800. Many including in here.
Gotta tell you Glen, I just don’t see $800!
Relative to the monetary base, gold has never been cheaper. Compared to the 1970s, the balance sheet of USA, Inc. has never looked worse. I don’t know why five or ten grand is so controversial.
http://www.silverseek.com/article/exponential-explosions-debt-sp-crude-oil-silver-and-consumer-prices-14086
That is a valid point Matthew, and I still remember when $850 and $1000 Gold was controversial. Gold could very easily get to $5000 +, and while that is a large percentage increase, it is achievable once the dollar get’s its comeuppance, and crashes (as is inevitable). With the Yen, Euro, Ruble, Aussie$, Canadian Loonie, New Zealand Kiwi, and just about every other currency hitting the print money and devalue currency levers, it is hard to see when the dollar will finally get re-rated.
You’re right Shad, even 850 was very controversial. I also clearly remember some commentators saying “you’re not going to want to live in a world with $2,000 gold” or something similar to that.
From the mid ’70s correction low, gold went up about 8.5x. A move like that from this correction low of 1130 (if it’s the low) would put gold at $9605. In addition, it only took roughly $470 gold in 1980 to “back” foreign held U.S. debt (with the 8133.5 tons the U.S. claims to have). It would take about $23,000 gold to do that today. But gold didn’t stop at 470 in the ’70s; It overshot by more than 80%. A similar overshoot now would put gold over $41,000. (No, that is not a prediction.)
Great points Matthew. It definitely makes sense to have a long term hold of PMs for just these reasons, and the long term trend is still going to be up. Have a good one!
Shad,
Not to be picky but gary wagner has been dead wrong on so many occasions. In fact peter and gary i don’t tune into at all as I feel they are not confident in there calls. Roy gets a pass. That’s what’s great about this site shad that we all have different opinions and follow different gurus to that extent. I however value what you bring to this table as i see talent 🙂
Thanks as always..
Thanks Glen. Yes, to each their own, and I try to get as many perspectives as possible to form a holistic approach without emotions getting involved.
I track about 12 different experts daily, and compare their charting and indicators to the patterns and indicators I review ,and then look for synergy. Of course, I can’t help but check in on another dozen or so macro commodity and PM commentators that I always enjoy listening to their rants and sometimes extreme opinions because they have such interesting perspectives (ie Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers, Axel Merk, Jim Rickards, Bob Weidemer, Micky Fulp, David Morgan, Brent Cook, Marc Faber, Rick Rule, a number of writers at the Motley Fool, and most of the Kitco video and written interviews.
I just noticed a few people using that 1323 as their trading targets that all seemed to be in agreement, so it is one I’ll watch as the number approach to see if it blows straight through or approaches and bumps its head a few times. Again, for me the 1347 and 1382 prior peaks are far more meaningful to break above to confirm the bottom is in and we have started the climb back up.
Thanks for response shad.
Great philosophy, Shad!
Totally agree with Gary. We have lost NOTHING by being on the sidelines.
Buy stop still at 1347. This buy stop has been in place for over 2 months.
DOLLAR TO DA MOON!
At this moment, gold is up 11-12% since it bottomed and about 7% ytd. So holding dollars in that time has come with some opportunity cost.
Forget gold, those who chose the sidelines over the gold miners have missed substantial gains. GDXJ is currently up 29% from its December low (after being up 45%) and is still up 17% ytd. Select individual miners have done far better than GDXJ.
If gold is purchased for insurance purposes and not short term momentum trading, shouldn’t it look more appealing now than when Al said to buy near 1300?
Dave,
By being on the sidelines – ie long cash – you don’t lose anything indeed.
I assume your cash is either in your hands or in a bank account that is NOT charging you negative interest rates. For simplicity sake, I also will even not take into account the minimal loss of purchasing power of this cash due to the fact over the past say 3mths, there’s a tiny bit of inflation.
So yes, from that perspective, you lost “NOTHING”.
HOWEVER… may I point that since Nov last year, despite losing nothing, you have missed something. 🙂 (see Matthew’s numbers below). And assuming you buy gold at $1347 given your buy order, you will have missed a c. $200 move…ie about 17% since a $1150 level in early Nov (I don’t even take the $1130 low as a reference).
If you are cool with that, good for you.
Personally, I like to buy on weakness and sell on strength. I tend to think that I take much less risks by doing so…. and I typically lose LESS and more importantly I MISS less.
From the bottom of my heart, I truly hope one thing for you:
that if we get to $1347 from here, you don’t get a fake breakout and then a move to $1100, 1050, 1000.
Best to you, and GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
Cory, please say it isn’t so!
At 3:20 in this audio, you used the patented trademark of Al.
“for lack of better terms” We hear that phrase 5 times a day from Al, Please don’t you start using it 🙂
“
Ha – funny Dave. I listen to this show so often that I’ve even started saying “for lack of better terms” in my everyday lexicon. Thank you Al for this phrase.
I’ll stop(for lack of better terms) using this phrase if everyone else will.
It’s actually fun to say, but maybe like certain seasonings….only a little dab will do ya.
I think I found Dab…
https://www.bushfirepress.com/graphics/Little_Dab.gif
😮
Ha! That’s it.
Nothing like an old (early 50’s) red Chevy!
you need some dipa dee doo…hair wax, and an angora sweater……….
Was hoping for a nice 300 point plunge in the DOW today – where are the Greek politicians when you need them!? 🙂
If you believe the news that Zero Hedge reported, the Greek politicians are right there waiting!
Gary puts Peter schiff in the pocket !!!
All I will say at the moment is this….go to the VIX chart and trace out the lines from the October highs to today and tell me what you see. There is a SHTF moment coming very soon when that chart resolves its pennant formation. I first thought it could come as early as March but on second thoughts we might see a breakout in activity in just the next two weeks.
But will it help gold? I really don’t know. I am siding with a big spike in volatility coming though for equity markets fairly soon though so stand by and man the towers.
Can’t you man the towers whilst the rest of us run and hide?
What the hell, why not. I have nothing better to do. See you afterwards.
You will get a good funeral… if we remember who you are… and if we don’t then.. 🙂
No Bob UK, we don’t want to lose Bird!
We all gotta go someday Al.
You might want someone with better eye-sight in that tower… (;-)
So did you look at the chart? If you see something else then name it Dan.
Sorry Bird, I meant that you have commented on having bad eyesight before; was nothing to do with any other abilities.
Interesting comment Birdman.
Just looking at the chart, I tend to agree another VIX move up is due.
How much of a corresponding downside in the conventional market will this translate to is the big question I guess.
Personally, I’ve stated here (both in writing and during my last interview) that I’ll buy Dec 2015 SPY calls if S&P goes around 1900 and I’ll add more if we get closer to 1800pts.
I would tend to think that we might get a bottom in the LEIs in Feb/March (see Financialsense.com for a recent article on the matter) which might coincidence with a market weakness in the coming say… 2months.
Best to you and GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
Chart patterns like that break up or down but don’t go sideways as they say, LPG. Whichever way it moves though should have some drama and as I said my suspicion is VIX breaks out to the upside. But how high? Well I think we should not be complacent at this stage especially with the behavior in equity markets lately. The DOW has been oscillating sharply between a low of 17,000 and highs of 18,000 in a tightening band. I think it smells like a correction is coming.
Thanks for taking the time to look at it so we could at least have this discussion.
Agreed with you Birdman. Looks like a flag to me.
Best to you,
LPG
Was I repeating myself?
WE WILL GET A LITTLE MOVE UP HERE IN GOLD AFTER THE 1:30 EST CLOSE………..so stay tuned………………
good call Mark……………..
Thank you Gary for great comments. I’m waiting for 1240 myself.
My 2 cents for rest of our forum folks. When YOU come to realization the bottom is in so will rest of the world. We all look a the same charts. So when everyone will want IN at same time you will be getting in at 1500-1600 gold missing 500 move.
That’s not small move. I’m not telling you to buy but don’t be surprised when you watching the raise. Like i said we all have same chart. Some is first, someone is the middle and someone is last. You make the most if you first. You barely make any money when you in middle and you lose big when you’re last. My 2 cents.
AGAIN THE BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUES TO FALL………….we are in DANGEROUS WATERS right now…..
Come on Mark, the BDI is falling in sympathy with oil declines. Energy makes up as much as 40% of the cost of shipping so this is no big surprise. But hey, if you want to hitch your fortunes to that indicator be my guest. Lets see how far it takes you.
SORRY BUT THE BALTIC DRY INDEX WAS FALLING WELL BEFORE THE DECLINE IN OIL PRICES.
FWIW the BDI has never shown any historical connection to the global economy despite what some people would like to believe.
OKAY…………………….JUST STAY TUNED………………how many times do I have to keep telling you all when things are going to happen ?
Correlation is not causation, Mark. Even if there is another economic crisis brewing it still has little to do with the BDI. Trade numbers are up overall yet the BDI is still falling even as plenty of new ships with massive capacity flood the industry at a time of sinking fuel costs.
Hello all,
I will add my few words to this podcast…
Personally, I don’t think one becomes a successful investors by buying higher.
Successful investing is by buying low. Period. And buying low = less risk (not more).
Let’s take a simple math, using some numbers which were thrown, shall we ?
Assume SOME PEOPLE ( 🙂 🙂 🙂 ) feel comfortable with buying gold at $1500…because at that point they will feel the central banks have lost their grip on the price. And let’s assume that these people have a target of $2000, that gold reaches.
Cool ? That’s a 2000/1500=33% return. Not bad, right ?
No. Personally, if gold goes to $1000, I’ll probably increase my exposure (I say “probably” because it will depend of my mix of assets within my portfolio at that time so maybe I’ll get some long-dated option on GLD, and I’ve already checked the price of various Jan 2017 GLD Calls last night as a matter of fact- but what I can guarantee you is that I will advise to people around me who have spare cash to buy some).
And if (to take my example) the metal move to $2000, that’d be a 2000/1000=100% return. Not bad too… but dare I say: muuuuuch better. 🙂 (3x better in %age terms actually)
Now, here’s the interesting part.
If I buy at $1000, in order to make the 33% return that the person will make by purchasing at $1500 and selling at $2000, then I ONLY HAVE TO WAIT for gold to hit $1330 (ie a few bucks above our recent 1308 last top).
Lastly:
If gold goes to $5000, that’s a 5000/1500=233% in one case and $5000/1000=400% return in the other case. Both numbers are nice, but I’m sorry: that’s a Bigggggg difference.
For those who TRULY have a long-term horizon with the PM metals, the lower the price, the better. Not the opposite. Sorry.
Best to all, and GL trading/investing.
LPG
Re: “For those who TRULY have a long-term horizon with the PM metals, the lower the price, the better. Not the opposite. Sorry.”
Yes, that’s true for anyone that is still earning their savings or anyone subject to taxes on the sale. But for those relatively few who have a lot of gold and their best earnings behind them, a much higher price would be a good thing.
For the record, I think it’s going substantially higher because I think it has too, not because I want it to. It is undervalued in my opinion.
When speculating in the miners, all I care about is the real price and it is up sharply in recent months. Amazingly, if oil had stayed at $100, gold would have had to jump to $2,900 in order to achieve its recent oil valuation of 29 barrels per ounce.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$WTIC&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=28&id=p36418021998
Best
M
Matthew,
Fair point.
So let me rephrase what I meant:
For those who are already fully invested – in gold or anything else for that matter – the higher the better.
For those who are investing, the lower the better.
Best to you,
LPG
I mean… this is not what I meant to say in the first place… but I don’t mind rephrasing it that way 🙂 coz I believe I’m stating the obvious. 🙂
Best,
LPG
And don’t forget high taxes for some. Only a rising nominal value can be taxed. The more it rises, the more bullion one loses to taxes(!). I think it’s 28% in the U.S., so Americans should be cheering for price deflation, not inflation. For example, gold just enjoyed a huge rally versus commodities, especially oil, yet there’s no taxable gain.
150% in just months priced in oil…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=28&id=p25836941420
Best,
M
LPG,
That strategy works as long as one is in a secular bull market. Buying low in 1982 would just mean you still lost money and lost it for many years before gold turned back up.
Many people bought low at 1700, 1500, 1300, etc. and they still lost money.
Hello Gary,
You are raising an interesting point.
However, I believe there is one element that is not taken into account by your comment.
It is the following:
At 1700,1500,1300, the price of gold is ABOVE the cost of production of most miners.
At 1000, 1050, the price is BELOW the cost of production of most miners.
To me, that’s a big difference. A BIG one.
Now, can the price stay below the cost of production for a while ? Yes, of course it can. The uranium market is a great example.
But once inventories are depleted (ETFs etc..) and as long as demand remains stronger than supply (which is the case in the gold market), it is just a matter of time before the price moves up.
To me, this “average cost of production” is a critical factor in my thought process when it comes to investing. I have emphasized this in previous posts (last year) when I mentioned/referred to the concept of “value” for gold. For me, value in that case being when gold trades below the cost of production of most miners.
So to me, buying at $1000 would NOT ONLY be buying at about 23% less than at $1300. It would be, MORE IMPORTANTLY, buying well below most producers’ current cost of production. And that, to me, is a nice cushion.
This is why one thing that bothers me about the current environment is a) the strong USD and b) low oil prices. It bothers me because too many miners can stay in business while in fact… they shouldn’t. They are just walking zombies producers. Said differently, the cost of production for the average producer is going down, and hence my “value” level is lower than say before June 2014 (where USD was lower and oil was twice where it is now).
To extend on that thought and as a slight digression, one thing that would truly scare me is if a technology was introduced that could could lower the cost of extraction by say $200,300,400/oz at a cost affordable by most producers. To me, that would be a big issue as it would mean supply can stay at current levels for a while, and maybe even grow.
Now…you might tell me:
“Ok, LPG, all of this bla-bla about cost of production/value you wrote is nice but these are not technical/cycle arguments”.
I would happily reply: “concurred” BUT…
…I personally base my investments on 1) a fundamental view and 2) trying to get the technicals helping me.
IMHO, in ANY investment, when one buys below what could be broadly assessed as “value” levels, then, it is more difficult to lose money then when buying “above” value.
It doesn’t mean that one cannot lose money anyway. It means that it is more difficult. And to buy something at below value and make money, one doesn’t need a bull market – that’s something I encourage everyone to think about.
Let’s think about it when it comes to stocks: buying when the price goes down is good, but buying below book value is better. I often say to people: “price in itself doesn’t mean much”. What matters where the price is IN RELATION TO what could be assessed as value.
I understand that MAYBE you and others on the site might disagree with my views/investment approach. But I guess that then, we’ll just have to agree to disagree. As Woody Allen said with his movie: “Whatever works”.
Going forward, I’ll probably deploy capital in the metal and stocks IF gold hits the $1000-1050 zone (I’ve got cash set aside for this and a plan with orders already in place well below market prices on several stocks). And as in late Oct/early Nov, I will not try to time the bottom but simply buy when things are crashing (hopefully) and many are scared.
Best to you as always, and thank you for your daily commentaries.
LPG
PS: for anyone interested in the concept of value and “margin of safety”, I recommend Seth Klarman’s book “Margin of Safety”. Easy read (but very expensive book)
Good thoughts on buying Gold or any commodity below the cost of production, as that is a great value, and is different than buying a dip when a commodity is above the cost of production because there would be more potential downside in the latter.
ALL IN THE TIMING………..LPG…………….
J The Long OOTB,
Hope all’s well.
All in the timing indeed.
However, I am not good at timing bottom and tops. And I think it is a futile exercise.
Having said that, I believe that “buying right and sit tight” works pretty well, especially in the context of buying below “value”.
Best to you and GL investing/trading.
LPG
I agree 100%……..LIVERMORE AND CO…………………J
LPG………btw….thanks for asking………..best you ,and ditto on the luck in investing, I have not figured out how to trade yet…..just long term investor……….J.THE LONG, OR MAYBE TOOLONG……………….
J The Long OOTB,
If you are interested in trading, there is plenty of literature out there on technical analysis. Lot of it is for free on the web – but getting a few good books don’t hurt.
As an aside, some people use a lot of technical indicators and terms can be confusing at first or intimidating.
One of the most successful (stocks) daytraders I know (he’s made millions starting from scratch) just use support/resistance levels on a chart alongside volumes. That’s it. Nothing else. Maybe he’s an exception… but that’s only what he uses, and he’s been doing this for years quite successfully.
Now a few things on trading itself, if I may – and maybe others will also be able to comment with their own experience:
1) keep in mind about 90% of traders lose money – ie the big bucks are made by a small minority
2) if you start doing this (trading), stick with what works for you once you trade.
I know it sounds obvious, but what I mean by that is if you trade in a way that makes you money consistently, don’t try to add new indicators or new fashionable mumbo-jumbo.
–> When something works fine, don’t change.
3) To me, there is no real difference in the APPROACH between trading and investing.
I know this statement might surprise many, so let me just elaborate a few words to explain.
A)to me, trading, as investing, is still all about buying low, selling high (or selling high, buying low if you short).
So it’s exactly the same mindset. The closer to the bottom, the better the risk/reward for a buy. The closer to a top, the better for a short for (or to exit a position).
The key obviously is to be able to identify top and bottoms – and technical analysis helps a lot in this regard, IMHO.
B) As for investing, one need to exercise appropriate risk-management.
C) Finally, as something that I “preach” here on Kereport for investing, I think it is also a pre-requesite to have a plan when trading (what’s my entry point ? what’s my exit point? what will I do if this happens? what will I do if that happens?).
4) If you start trading and lose money consistently, refer to the 1) above. There’s nothing to be ashamed off, it will just mean you’re part of the 90%. 🙂
Now, at that stage, what will be probably be wise is to take a break, step back, analyse your losing trades and understand why you lose money consistently and try to adjust things going forward.
As a side note, personally, I record all my trades and every trade as a comment on it. Maybe that’s over the top, but I know several successful full-time stock traders who do the same.
5) to avoid the bad outcome of the 4) occurring, many brokers give you the opportunity to do “paper trading” – there’s no real $ involved so you can’t smoke your account :-).
6) if you are tired, sick or your mind is somewhere else, either take it very easy or – better – don’t trade.
7) At the beginning, if you have no clue about something, maybe it’s better to no trade (maximise your chances: trade what you’re comfortable with at the beginning). Once you become proficient, you will likely feel comfi in trading many assets, many things that you are not familiar with as you will become good a trading patterns/charts.
8) Keep in mind the 1) above
9) Refer to 7)
10) there will be other things to mention… but it’s not supposed to be an exhaustive list. Just keep in mind the 1) though 🙂
Best and GL to you, either doing LT investing or trading !
LPG
There was a typo in my post above.
9) should read as “Refer to 8)” (and not “Refer to 7)”)
Apologies.
LPG
thanks for the tips………I was kind of joking on the trading….I have been doing stocks since the 70’s….I use to watch LOUIS REKEYSER WALL STREET WEEK EVERY FRIDAY.
The More enjoyable years……when you could make a little money on investing,for the long haul…..and did not trade everyday. PETER LYNCH, was a great mind on the ten bagger concept, kind of like what should be happening in the juniors mining stocks, which it is not, yet….I think you have some great suggestion, keep up the hard work. …….best……………………………………………j.
Rye Patch- any opinions on why it seems to be weaker than other juniors recently?
I think it is getting hit with other explorers, because the marketplace has not really re-rated its value of the 3.5% Net Smelter Royalty that it got from Couer (CDE) in the legal victory on staking that land.
Their Lincoln Hill discoveries and other targets are excellent near or on previously producing mines, in a good jurisdiction (Nevada), and they are likely to be taken out by Couer at one point. CDE has been gobbling up smaller silver/gold/base metal companies with 2 acquisitions lately. I could easily see Rye Patch as a take out target for Coeur, that would recoup their NSR, but take advantage of the all the exploration targets, permits, and teams in place at Rye Patch.
Unlike most Juniors, Bill and the team are working, not trying to survive or raise money….they are actually drilling without shareholder dilution. As he says, they have an ATM machine to fund their exploration. What is not to like? ….but the marketplace so far as just wacked it with the rest of the sector.
My all in price is $.14 per but I was thinking of averaging down if it gets back to $.10 again. This stock could easily rebound to $.24 on big move, and then after that the $.37-.39 range by year end if gold does begin it’s uptrend. It will also go up another 150-200% from those levels if it does get taken out by Coeur or another Mid-Tier producer looking for an excellent exploration company to acquire. Those are my thoughts on good ole Rye Patch, but we’ll see how it goes.
Thanks Shad. Great points. I too, think it’s a very high potential company and have been averaging down my basis as it’s dropped, but wanted to know if I was missing something.
I own PZG, which was just (50% of it) acquired by CDE. It was a low premium, but we get shares in CDE, which could pop a lot with a significantly higher gold price. Perhaps the same kind of deal for Rye Patch, but hopefully after more of its underlying value is priced in, so we’d get a higher premium.
Yes, agreed Jay. I also owned PZG but was fortunate to have purchased it only a few weeks before the announcement, so I had a nice profit on the pop from the news, and then sold at a nice profit. Cheers!
I would have done better to have held it longer, but there is no shame in taking a little money off the table from time to time.
Not doing anything at this time. Still waiting for some permits to drill more.
Still “Hoping for Better”
I know Hope is not a good investment strategy
Thanks Tony…the good things are that it has good properties, from what I can tell, and a large income stream from CDE to explore and build out its resources in the meantime, so hopefully we’ll see it pay off before long.
RYE PATCH……….needs to change it’s name………..sounds SOUND LIKE A hill billy bourbon…………..
when things take off,,,the late comers are less likely to pick this stock because it does not have PM SOUNDING NAME……………………………………JMHO……..
After a long day of work, I like to sit on the front porch with a bottle of Rye Patch Kentucky Bourbon. We age the bourbon in Gold Barrels in Nevada and the process the mash in Kentucky, so we can call it Bourbon instead of just whiskey.
I AM just down the road…….from Kentucky’s finest…..here in Indiana….we like that there corn whiskey……………he haw…………………j
I am in Tennessee and very close to the Jack Daniels and George Dickel distilleries, but I prefer some good Kentucky bourbon.
My family is from Tennessee……….great state…..my distant relatives , even came thru and help discover the Cumberland Gap……1760, …along with WALKER the surveyor…..btw, I bet you know Daniel Boone never discovered the Gap..
Great history of Tenn…..and the Revolutionary War….., people do not give enough credit for what the Tennessee long rifles and” Volunteer” army did to help defeat the British Army……
Yes, Tennessee is an interesting state and it doesn’t get much attention, but has a rich history. I grew up in LA & San Francisco, CA and Cleveland & Cincinnati, OH; so moving to TN was a culture shock, however it has grown on me over time and I have learned a bit about its role in the Revolutionary and Civil War….. as well as its role in Whiskey and Moonshine : – ) Cheers!
Shad……….The old south shall rise again……….
Hi guys, what are the chances of getting the oil and/or US dollar live charts on the left side of the page? Since gold and silver appear to react to their ups and downs it would be helpful to see the comparisons at one time.
MORE BLACK SWANS ARE DEAD AHEAD……..lies, lies and more lies are being told about this economy, even the HEAD of the GALLUP POLE admits and revealed that the UNEMPLOYMENT RATE of 5.6% is FALSE, all they are and have been doing is lying, lying and more lying……..these CHICAGO THUGS in the White House are ROOTED IN CRIME.
……………IT’S A CRIMINAL OPERATION THE GOV’T…….NOTHING is allowed to TRADE FREELY……….THE NATION is RUN on a PONZI SCHEME and the AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE PROGRAMMED………….WITH ALL OF THESE JOB CLOSINGS and huge LAYOFFS………I CAN’T WAIT to see how these new jobs numbers on Thursday and the EMPLOYEMENT REPORT comes in on FRIDAY……………will it be MORE BULLSHIT or THE TRUTH !!!!
Mark…I am leaking Fridays job report….751 1/2 thousand new jobs created over the last 3 days…..Its the truth , honest , the Govt told me…..& I must believe it , otherwise they will brand me a terrorist.
LOL……………did you hear what GALLOP POLL HEAD JIM CLIFTON JUST SAID ON CNBC !!!!!
Mark…Yep…Nice to see some are prepared to poke their heads above the parapets.
MARTIN LUTHER KING “HAD A DREAM”, AND BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA “HAD A SCHEME”………………………..WOW !!!!!
OH, EVERYTHING IS FINE……………..ADP MISSES……………AND OIL IS BACK DOWN BIG RIGHT NOW…………..IT’S DOWN 9%.
GARY LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Never in a million years for a 1000 reasons…..The US is not Zimbabwe no matter how crappy people think things are. It will take a miracle to break the existing highs..That said I’m on this rally and I think we are heading higher…
Gary didn’t say 5 to 10 quintillion!!!!!!! $5 grand is a no-brainer.
LOL sure….Matthew….I hold my breath….in a deflationary scenario…
I’m bullish for now especially on the miners.
You’re embarrassing yourself, Bill. I run into people like you all the time —lots of confidence backed by little or no study of the subject being discussed.
A contracting economy and the deflationary forces that comes with it is a large part of what will cause the dollar to lose much more of its value as the government/Fed “prints” in vain to get the economy (and taxes) expanding again. Insolvency and declining confidence in government will do the rest.
Common Matthew….The US is the least contracting economy period…
….do you get out much? Things a pretty full on in our part of the world…Nobody concerned I know and it seems like the same people colluding in chat sites seem to be concerned the most…15 years of doom and gloom from the gloomers and still waiting for the apocalypse
It could be in 50 to 100 years maybe. Why even bother forecasting such numbers.
Oil hit so hard today. I took some major one week profits in XOP and will wait out in cash. The stock market has failed to hold the 50 day average the 3rd time this year. That might mean we need to go the the 200 day.
Before 5000 we need to see if it holds 1000. Could very well end up at major support around 800 1st.
You’ll see, Paul. It won’t take 10 years for $5,000.
Matthew & Paul…It could be 10 months…..Hell anything is possible in these cartoon times…….I wrote that while the LOONY TUNES theme was swirling around in my head…
Sod it ..must stay off the OOZO.
BTW…..That’s All Folks………………………………………..
Stay of the OOZO? Are you crazy?
KWN could easily forecast 5000 in 10mths.
I agree Paul..Virtually no one can predict the price of gold….Maybe God knows….
Matt: How we looking on the charts?
See comment below. I forgot to hit “reply” before commenting.
For lack of better terms and the fact of the matter is that gold is currently mirroring the moves it made last year. Low 23rd December, up till 23rd January, down into the 6th february and up again……confirmation will be heading upwards from tomorrow or Friday.
I prefer not to be a bagholder.
It is very possible that most people who have been broken by the gold crash are hanging on for dear life.
I hope you all are correct.
goldbugs have the strangest way of looking at the world.
You believe that gold moves everything. Well you found out for 3 years now that it doesn’t. It is a hedge nothing more. No one cares about gold except the broken downtrodden goldbugs.
I was in an airport today and not one person used cash, gold or anything real at starbucks in 13 people orders. They used an app or a electronic wallet. You darn well better get this cause your future depends on it,
Anyone under 59 could care less about gold. The gold of tomorrow is apple pay or Google pay or whatever takes them out.
It is not, I repeat not – gold IMHO.
You can’t shove gold into a smartphone or a smartphone reader folks.
How many times do you have to bankrupt yourselves. I’m sorry but it’s time to come out of nutterville..
Gold has its place. To bribe the Obama concentration camp guards who want physical not reportable assets to let go free……
Ken, it never ceases to amaze me how those who’ve studied the least are always the most sure of themselves. For your own sake, you should put your programming aside and attempt to learn about it.
Btw, I think you meant to say “Anyone under 59 could NOT care less about gold.” If they COULD care less, that means they still care.
You have studied the most and know the most Matthew….You ever run a real company? Nobody gives a hoot about most of this…The majority I know got wealthier the last 10 yrs
Bill, if you doubled your nominal net worth in the last ten years, you really aren’t wealthier. If your net worth rose more than the price of gold, you are wealthier. Those who don’t give a hoot are suckers. A sucker is a sucker because he doesn’t know he’s a sucker.
Off course, most people have to lose every thing in the crisis. No doubt about it. People who prepare themselves are always tiny minority.
Yup, it’s not a crisis if most are not on the losing side. Like the housing bubble. Even if you survived it odds are good you lost some value. We are going to revisit the housing crisis again as far as I can tell. Not many will be spared. So for the majority who have that as their single most important asset, if not their ONLY asset, it is going to be rough. And that is one time that gold often plays well because it does behave counter cyclically to other markets during turmoil.
Agree Bird…
Leverage always kills the small guy hey Lawrence??
Bang on Ken. Matthew has some good trading knowledge but….
Kudos again Ken….People get blinded by the glider…I run real companies with real cash flow providing real services…..We aint going to use gold ever for a 1000 reasons. That said Ill take a trade!
That would be GLITTER….I like the stuff but..
The action has been good but there’s still elevated downside risk short term. I’ve been adding to select miners but the signals are mixed for the sector plays like GDXJ.
Accumulation on down days continues to make sense to me.
The bulls are winning the battle for the neckline of a bearish head and shoulders pattern:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p76251546284&a=387247512&listNum=1
Good chart. I think GDX has neat little bull flag on the daily.
Yes, the HUI shows the flag too. Notice the bullish two headed head and shoulders pattern with a target in the 260-270 area.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p67195374390&a=370482078&listNum=1
The CDNX has a weekly RSI 14 reading above 30 for the first time since September.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CDNX&p=W&yr=6&mn=3&dy=0&id=p18967250283&a=379558732
Waiting for a single number ($1347) to call the bottom is not enough confirmation. $1392 was a higher high in early 2014 and that failed.
Just an excuse to stay out.
GOLD DOWN 10 DOLLARS OVER NIGHT………………..WHY………….ON NO NEWS ???.
cory– vibrations in gold…?? seems rather steady..