Doc on Gold and the US dollar
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The Cabal needs more pressure points. This is the second in silver.
CME Hikes Silver, Brent, RBOB Margins
In case algos still haven’t gotten the message to jump all aboard into the S&P, here comes the CME with a gntle nudge in the form of 90 pages of margin hikes including Brent, RBOB and, just in case there is still anyone who wishes to trade paper precious metals against the BIS, silver. In fact, at first glance it appears the only future whose margin was not hiked was stocks: apparently stocks are never volatile enough for a margin hike.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-05/cme-hikes-silver-brent-rbob-margins
Silver does look like it wants to rise. Let’s see whether this margin hike can kill the move. It would be nice that I can have a gambling house and I can be a gambler at same time.
Lawrence…it is sad they have to resort to it to control the price. They raised it 5 times in 2011. So much for free markets. Nice PPT action on the Dow & S&P this week.
CME Margin Hike Is 4th AND 5th – Charting The Parabolic Rise In CME Silver Margin Hikes
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/04/2011 18:48 -0400
Remember when earlier we said the CME had hiked silver margins for the 4th time in 8 days? We lied. In fact, what the CME did was to hike margins for the 4th (effective May 5) AND 5th times (effective May 9). That’s right, dear reader, in one release, the CME has performed two concurrent margin hikes, which means today’s action is the 5th margin hike in 8 days, a previously unheard of event! As of May 9th, the initial margin is $21,600, or 11% of the contract value, while the maintenance is $16,000. This is nothing short of sheer panic at the CME. At this point we can only wonder if the FDR-style precious metals confiscation executive order will come by way of the CME or the FBI. And for everyone asking, below is the chart of recent CME margin hikes in silver.
I have been following silver for 11 years. Look at the recent price move, many times it was doing sudden spike up and immediately gold price is knocked down and the gold and silver ratio went down actually. It has all the ear mark that they are using gold price dip to choke off silver spike. If we put together the 2 consecutive margin hikes, I can say they have trouble to control silver price. I rarely see the pattern.
AFTER THE NEWS ON GREECE, the gold market was back up yesterday on it’s way up until in the over night hours THE LIARS AND THIEVES moved in…….and DOWN went the price……even by this morning with all the terrible economic news that came out, THEY did not let GOLD RISE…………..there is NO MORE RULE OF LAW IN AMERICA, after the RESET that took place three weeks ago by the Swiss National Bank…….GOLD should be well past $1300 and be near or over $1400 by now……….the BLACK SWANS will keep coming, and again and again these CROOKS will hold the price DOWN, until they completely run out of bullets………and they know they are getting LOW ON AMMO.
WATCH TOMORROW……….if the Employment Report comes in BAD, they are going to let GOLD RISE nicely ALL DAY on FRIDAY………………BUT THEN, come MONDAY morning, THEY WILL ERASE…………every gain made.
AL GREAT FOLLOW UP QUESTIONS FOR DOC. Exactly what i would have asked myself. Perfect. I like it. They may smash gold tomorrow a bit on employment numbers so that might give more push down for gold what doc is saying. Makes sense to me. Thank you Doc.
I’d really like to know exactly which momentum indicators that Doc is watching, and in what timeframe. Eg: MACD for daily charts, or …?
And is that Doc’s big gun (big tell) for trading, much as cycles are Gary’s big gun?
Man, I”m just pretty blown away by the confidence that Doc has in his momentum indicators, and I’d like to learn more please. Thank you.
Doc has guaranteed it. It’s as good as gold then hehe…doc i’m kidding.
Doc what do you think of New Gold NGD.TO? ….I like it anytime it is under $5.00
I love NGD.TO under 5. Should be a 10-bagger. Same for SSRI, MDW, PVG, AG, PAAS, TGD, and MUX at today’s prices.
Tom,
I use to own it back a while ago and sold in the 12 area.. I follow it closely at times.
Tell you one thing, if you not scared of volatility then go for it. As a trader, it’s got to be one of the best stock to make cash with. High volume and volatility on a daily. Buy anything under 4.50 canadian ticker or equivalent on u.s ticker and sell above 5.40-5.50.. Cash making machine 🙂
For long term hold it will be good as well.
Al, are you on kitcos payroll?
Thanks
All your invitations are ready on today’s Rick Ackerman blog.
All messages are to be directed on the instructions, not here.
Can you follow directions, I certainly hope so.
Ask questions later. Now go cut the cake. Be there and be square.
Sounds good Doc. Right now I am watching the pennant or triangle formation appearing on the VIX and I now think it may break (up or down…not sure yet) as early as the Monday following this coming week. What ever happens should be decisive though so just be ready to catch the move as it will impact on stocks, gold and the dollar all at once. Its always nice to see a little drama on its way into our lives.
Doc,
Great Call! Experience wins…
Thanks
Gary,
good call as well!
I really like the action, Glen; what do you think? Silver isn’t giving much leverage to gold and the miners aren’t giving much leverage to the metals. Notice that the HUI turned at 195 and remains bullish like we talked about yesterday.
I think Doc expected gold to see 1240 next week. Yesterday I said: “I still think the sector is going higher next week.” In light of today’s action this looks even more likely to me. My indicators still say “buy the dips.”
Im buying will all the ammunition I have.. Well not all:)
Hard time getting orders filled..Had a few stink bombs already.
Matt,shad,
Notice the faster gold drops, how minimal the miners move?
Yes, it is puzzling considering the skittish nature of the miners when declines come about, but it shows that there is real pent up strength in the miners waiting to unleash when gold turns around. The miners are showing more strength than the commodity itself and ill likely lead the charge.
I was doing sell PM buy oil trade but I may have to put the money back.
Why? PM’s are falling and crude is on the rise just as I had predicted. So far you should be in the green. I would not assume gold is about to take any big bounce either. My call remains that we are going to see 1200 again and eventually a break below the December lows.
By putting back I mean putting back into PM. I will keep the energy. I have enough spare cash now.
Good call to Doc and Gary! You guys are pros! Wish I hadn’t gone in halfway yesterday 😛
So since we are at the 1236-1240 level now, does that mean the correction is done now?
We are looking in the neighborhood, but the question is going to be whether this level and the 1232.40 close on Dec 9th will hold. I feel like the bounce at 1238 back to 1242 today was a good sign but we’ll need to see if there is more selling pressure, or if the bounce is beginning. We should be off to the races soon, but Doc felt this may continue into next week, so we’ll need to wait to see how Mon-Wed go. It wouldn’t be a bad place to take a position though, because I wouldn’t expect but possibly $20 more downside down to the 1220-1218 area at the worst.
Matt, we hit the 195 hui…Does it go down further in your opinion
The momentum readings at the moment favor lower but more support is close at 190-192 then 186 and 180.
It would make sense to sell seniors and buy more juniors at this point. So that would put more pressure on the HUI. That does appear to be happening right now; notice that GDX is way underperforming GDXJ today.
Thanks Matt. I noticed strength in gdxj..
Have you noticed NGD? It looks like it either wants to double bottom or new lows. Strange looking chart.
Disclosure I do not own ngd.
GDX has outperformed so far this year; which makes sense considering the relatively lower risk of producing seniors and the uncertainty that is found near the lows that makes lower risk appealing.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p87877681188
Oops, not GDX on the chart but close enough.
Here we go shad! I believe down to 1220
Well I believe 1232.80 will still be a strong level of support, which was the Dec 9th close. It has not broken that yet today and if it bounced off it, I’d go 65% in.
If that fails and we go to 1220, then I’d go the remaining 35% in. I’m going to spread it around between JNUG, SAND, some select Silver and Palladium miners, and keep some cash made in JDST lately for future endeavors.
Good points shad!
You had that 1232 target in mind from before. Id really like to see a reversal to day Matt and shad and close up. I don’t want to close down. With plenty of time left in the day it’s possible.
Thanks Glen. Well, we are closing in the range of 1230-1235 that we have been in all day, and it appears there was a lot of congestive buying and selling around the Dec 9th close of 1232.40. The range was only +/- $2 and it oscillated back and forth near this support most of the day. We closed a little higher than the low, but not by much.
Even though I dislike trying to call bottoms (as it is a terrible game to play), it did seem like the fall today was most of the expected decline that was expected, even when Gold bounced up into the 1270s and many thought it was taking back off. The question is was today the bottom, and nobody knows.
I did sell my JDST position taken out on Jan 22nd today for a nice profit, and picked up some JNUG at $30.02 near the end of the session. It popped to $30.40 after hours, so that seemed like a positive indicator for next week. We may need to still go down and test 1220 at the beginning of next week, but we could just take off on Monday.
This is why earlier this week I mentioned we’d know in the next 3 weeks the mid term direction, and I was hoping we’d hurry up and put in the bottom. We’ll know by next week if we are ready for the remaining 2-3 weeks of rally in the intermediate gold bull run that started in November. Good luck to all and have a great weekend!
Hello all,
I have been hoping for GDX to break a little below 21. Glen, Matt – what probability would you give to that? Thanks in advance.
Doc – prescient as always. With the move down today past 1240 and the momentum of the move, do you see it continuing a little lower. 1220 as discussed by some others. Thanks in advance.
It was down almost 6% and is currently down 5%, but I still think you have a good chance at sub-$21.
If you’re a bull and have little or no position, you might consider buying a little now @21.43 (down 5%).
For what it’s worth, I like Sprott’s SGDM more than GDX or GDXJ for the investor that would like to play the sector with just one vehicle. It covers the spectrum of risk profiles from the best royalty companies and seniors to mid tiers and juniors, and does so in appropriate ratios for those who aren’t adrenaline junkies or gamblers.
I own it primarily for the top half of its holdings since I already have a lot of risky stuff.
I think it’s worth reading about if you haven’t already.
http://www.sprottetfs.com/
(No, I do not work for Sprott and am not being compensated.)
😮
I agree Matthew. Sprotts relatively new ETF is a top notch selection of companies, very good basket and it should outperform GDX.
Glad to know you agree, Shad.
Rick Rule is a smart dude!
+1!
Shad, RR is my favorite. Very smart, or shrewd might be better. He is tough, practical and intellengent
And more than competent, not all smart people are. Rick rules.
I like that, Rick Rules. I wish to know how Bird thinks about him, just curious 🙂
Well, unfortunately, 1232 didn’t hold either
Nope it did not hold. Instead we hit 1228 and more declines are in store in the coming days. How do I know that? Well silver is looking like it will close the gap from December.
None of this is a surprise by the way. My call on gold since January 20th and 21st was that we would peak imminently and then see prices fall all the way back to 1200 ….We are most of the way there already.
This has been a 78 dollar decline since I posted that call just two days before we topped at 1306. At that time I was insistent we were going to fall back by 100 dollars and that gold would decline WITH the dollar. The dollar then peaked a few days after gold and both have been in general decline ever since.
This is not bragging by the way. I get calls wrong the same as everyone else but this one has pleased me because I managed to get that the dollar and gold would move more or less together. Admittedly I was 29 days early on calling the dollars turn though. So timing is not always my cup of tea.
But I wanted to point this out to the doubters who were bugging me at the end of January. Guys like Stewie who kept telling me I was wrong, wrong wrong. Stewie said to me…..”just you watch”!
Well I did watch Stewie. And guess what? You were wrong. Told you it was a head fake!
Don’t get ahead of yourself Bird, as hasn’t gone to 1200 yet, and 1232.40 (Dec 9th close) has been the point where gold hovered all day in a range between 1330-1335. The 1228 was just a momentary dip, and it is normal for a market to temporarily overshoot the support but return to it and hold. That seems to be what has happened most of the day but the close is not in yet. Nobody knows if we’ll go lower or higher next week, but I would submit that the 1232 support held pretty well thus far. Next support is 1220-1218 and I would be very surprised to see it break that level before heading up for a few weeks. Of course, anything is possible.
Shad, I am on the record since January 20th so I am hardly getting ahead of myself to just state the obvious. My call has yielded 78% of its estimated 100 dollar drop thus far and that was a great trade. NOBODY else here has come close nor bothered to attempt to put a target number on their projections.
Because one or two of them are just full of hot air and blather and are scared to stick their necks out.
I’m not sure I know what you mean since plenty of people have put targets out.
First of all, a number of people noted the triple top with 1305, 1305, and 1307 on Jan 22nd, and called for a corrective move down (LPG, Gary, Doc, and myself). My numbers were first support at 1240 (due to intraday high on Dec 9th of 1239) and then 1232.40 (Dec 9th close) and then 1218-1220 as the last major support level.
You were not unique in calling for a correction, and I purchased JDST on Jan 22nd for $7.59 and just sold a big portion at $8.94 for a nice profit, because I was expected a corrective move and have mentioned it a number of times.
I also don’t see us at 1200 yet ,and feel that target is getting ahead of yourself. In my opinion gold has held near the 1232.40 “target” that I threw out pretty well. It is unknown whether it is the bottom, but if not 1220 should hold. We’ll have to see how next week plays out. If we don’t turn up and rally for most of February, and if we got down to 1200 or below then I’ll admit I was incorrect on this call.
Well it just broke 1232 and is currently at 1229-1230. Both 1240 and 1232 gave up the ghost. Looks like I may be getting into the the market.
I will say though that Gold has held near the 132-133 zone pretty good for after a quick recovery below. It may just hold. I just refreshed my Kitco browser and Gold was at 1232.80 exactly.
that was supposed have said 1232-1233 zone. Typo. The price at 1232.80 was right on the mark with the Dec 9th high, and I figured it would be a layer of support.
So far it looks like the 1232 level did have a lot of congestion with many buyers and sellers in the 1230-1235 range. Yes, again, it did dip down briefly to 1228-1229 but then snapped right back to support. It isn’t a bullet-proof shield, it is just where many buy orders are in place based on previous technical position. It seems to have held fairly well around that area all day.
– 1226 is the gold 50 day moving avg
– 26.16 is the GDXJ 50 DMA
– 20 is the GDX 50 DMA
Those targets are all relevant, but so far we have stayed above all 3 of those levels (for now). It will be important to see where we close today.
So far, the trade I regret not making is jumping in Radioshack at 9 cents this morning
I think we tag 189/190 on hui and possible turn but all speculation.
Doc Fan the expert in gdx/gdxj is Matt..Im sure he can give you precise target on them.
The lowest I would expect is 181. I think 186 is pretty strong support as well. That could still happen next week if we don’t get a turnaround today by close.
Ditto that!
Doc Fan, either of Shad’s numbers for the HUI should give you GDX below $21.
doc, could you please post a link to your chart with your momentum indicator and any other indicator you use? thank you
Shad/Matt.
odds of turnaround today as appose to next week like doc mentioned?
You see today or more next week based on indicators for gold/hui?
thanks
I’m still watching to see if we get a bounce and turnaround today. If we got a bounce from this 1230-1232 range that could be the bottom. If we see that by the end of the day and close back up near 1240’s I’d feel better. However, if we close below this then I’m taking a small position (just in case this is the bottom) but mostly waiting for next week.
I’m watching the short term charts for the miners. I think they will bottom before the metals. If not today, there’s a good chance the low will be in on Monday.
Thanks Matt,
Im a little greedy and hoping for one more lowe :)..Its a gamble if it takes off..
how do you see the weekly for gdxj closing?
I’d like to see a close above 27.40 and below 27.74 (above the 13 week EMA and below last week’s close). I don’t think that range is unrealistic considering the look of things on the 60 minute chart. Next resistance on that chart is the 200 sma/233 ema at 27.21 & 27.23, respectively.
This is not the bottom Shad. Personally I would not buy this decline because it is a falling knife.
Well, its risky to do anything in this crazy market, and there still could be more downside risk, but in my opinion the 1220-1218 level is fairly solid and should hold off the move to 1200 you anticipate. Nobody really knows what will happen. I have stated for the last 2 weeks that 1232.40 was an important level due to that being close on Dec 9th (which was the most recent prior peak). The intraday high on the 9th was 1239 (giving some rationale behind the 1240 floor).
Both of those did get violated today, but things have bounced back and forth around the 1232 level all day, so it could be the bottom. If we go lower next week then I think 1218-1220 should cap it off and I still expect a leg up through most of February. Personally I don’t see 1200 in the cards at this point.
Shad,
Roger that 🙂
Shad id personally like to see the rsi go down to the 40’S and slow stochs down to 18/22 which i think corresponds with a date at 186 hui.
186 on the HUI would be the ideal correction point, for a rally up. I just know 181 is strong support from a former peak and valley both turning at that point recently.
Thanks Shad!
Doc.
Would you touch on conventional market for us according to your charts. thanks.