Gold needs a pop in the bio-tech bubble
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Here are some charts to drive home Gary’s commentary.
Silver was what most of us would term a bubble if classical bubble chart formations were all we looked at, Gary. It clearly went parabolic at the end telling us a great deal about what might follow. That should lead to the conclusion that gold was also in a bubble at its peak even if the pattern was not as stark as some would have liked.
The reason is that both precious metals tend to move together and silver more often than not leads gold both up and down. So if silver went parabolic and popped what are the odds that gold was not also going to fall?
That was indeed the case last time around as silver popped first which should have been the early warning signal to all that golds turn was coming. In the final analysis though, if gold returns to its mean or retraces the majority of its climb before bottoming and resuming an uptrend then we have only one conclusion to arrive at.
This cannot be just a garden variety correction! It is NOT a cyclical bear within a secular bull either as the fools keep asserting.
So yes, gold was in a bubble even if it was not clearly discernible to most people at the time. So far however it has not finished its final move down and so naturally hope lives on in the precious metals community that gold will attempt to return and then exceed its highs above 1900.
Seems like a hope that gets slimmer by the day. We shall let the charts decide. In the meantime the gold devotees can keep playing with terms and leading each other down garden paths that go nowhere.
What is a definition of a bubble…………….We could go back and talk about BIG BUBBLES……Like SOUTHSEA BUBBLE , TULIP BULB BUBBLE……..NASDAC BUBBLE….all these bubbles, is were EVERYONE was in, every TOM, DICK AND Harry, ..went maniac or causing a mania………….Which we have not had in the PM. There was not a manic event…in PM.
I would agree that we had a parabolic part move in silver .,but not a bubble.
Unlike , the tulip bulb mania, where one tulip bulb went to equal 260 tons of butter.
example…Semper Augustus. A true bubble , must have a mania event.
GLD, PAPER SUBSTITUE is not the same, and when the book is finally written, the GLD, will be like every piece of paper, that has ever been cast upon human beings , believing that the paper was what it was purported to be, when in fact it was not.
Human beings are a trusting crowd, so easily fooled, by their lack of understanding and their lack of willingness to study facts and history. This time will be no different.
The bubble , the real bubble is yet to come…………..Imho…….
I do not agree that we have had a REAL CLASSICAL BUBBLE…, generally classical meaning historical in nature, and generally, only happens generationally, before everyone forgets there was such a thing………..ootb…jpc@lol
Bird,
I would argue that silver was not in a true bubble yet as it didn’t even make new all time highs. Yes it certainly had a parabolic run, but it did in 2006 & 2008 also.
This is one reason I think the real bubble phase for gold and silver still lies ahead.
I had heard that same argument put forward by others. There is an assumption implied that each technical bubble inside its class, in order to be valid, must exceed the one that came before. A higher high is required so to speak. Who is to say that each new bubble cannot make a lower high though? Is that a rule anyone of us have ever heard? Maybe the 1980 peak was actually the once in two hundred and fifty year high inflation adjusted. I don’t know. The circumstances of the Hunts attempted corner on the market made that an exceptional event though.
Gary is obviously correct. 😮
Uh hunh….based on what?
Valuation and public participation.
Gary didn’t mention anything about participation. You have some reading comprehension issues.
You asked the question and I answered it. Pretty simple stuff Bird.
Uh yeah…this goes deeper than just comprehension issues.
Talking about bubble at market bottom in gold is ridiculous. Did you talk about bubble at 1800-1900?
Ten years from now, $1900 might just looks like a blip, similar to the 1975’s $200 when you look at 1980. Only difference is that this time it will be far more extreme.
This cannot possibly be the bottom Lawrence. Not if gold factually was in a bubble. And not if we go by the rules established by Bob Farrell that have shown time and again to be reliable rules of thumb.
Gold needs a much uglier retracement to fulfill the conditions. It just seems we need a bigger drop and I think it is still coming. Logic and bubble chart dynamics demand it.
There was a chart posted on the weekend thread, by the way, showing that gold has in fact already broken below its long trend channel first established 15 years ago. That was really helpful I thought in finally dispelling the notion that this is a cyclical bear with a gold bull trend.
You know, i argued this same case in detail more than two years ago already and stated even then that I was positive we were in a full fledged gold bear seeking a retacement to the mean. I was pilloried though. None would hear it and the abuse was deafening.
Got to say, it is getting a lot easier to make my case the more gold falls.
In the end i will be proven to have been correct all along.
If you don’t look at fundamental, there is nothing we can talk about. All the technical analysts behave like fortune tellers at this stage. They want to be right either way, in the hind sight. That is why I remind Gary. I don’t want him to claim that he is bullish at this stage. You have to agree that gold is closer to the bottom than to the top, don’t you? Now gold is at around 1200.
I would have to agree with Matthew. When gold was at $1900, I hardly new a soul who was invested in gold; unlike the Nasdaq in 2000 when virtually everyone owned nasdaq stocks.
What is crazy Lawrence is that gold began its long run at 250 so if we are going to fully retrace then no, we are not even halfway to the bottom yet. I am only saying that as Devils’ advocate though but it is worth keeping in mind. For gold to return from whence it came means there would be hundreds of dollars of drops still in the future before we got back to the 2001 starting point. Who is to say it cannot fall for 15 more years? That would only mean we lived through a depression of a decade and a half where the cost of mining also fell continuously. I don’t write the rules on this stuff. But a complete retracement means we would have to go back to the beginning whether people like to hear that or not.
I am talking about next bottom. Who care the bottom of $20. Gold has to fall to under $500 in the next low to make it closer tot he top at the current price. I am sure you are not claiming it. However, I am sure it will not going that low. At the top, I was a seller but now I am a buyer, as simple as that.
Money printing lead to inflation and inflation leads gold price going up. It is the simple truth. Anything else is noise. If someone is consistently buy at the top and sell at the lows, he is going to lose.
Birdman, Gold started its move to $800 from $75, it never, ever got any where near that low price again. There is no reason or precedent to suggest that gold MUST retrace 100% of its recent high in 2011.
Matthew is wrong Jthomas. The bubbles we are referring to above are all similar in their basic visual pattern showing how PRICE was impacted rather than by how many people participated. In fact, there is nothing whatsoever in any of those charts that indicates the extent of public participation. Matthew does not understand this simple point even though he sees himself as some kind of chart whiz.
Actually I agree with you Thomas. There is no reason gold must retrace a 100%. I did say I was playing Devils Advocate above. A mean retracement tells us that price should revert to the long term average line though. The question to ask is probably “What is golds long term average price”. That’s not so easy to get an answer to because gold does reflect the loss in the dollars buying power over time so the average should also be rising if it is floating free. In other words, it cannot be fixed by just gathering at historical records and doing some fancy division. Its no wonder gold is baffling.
Re: “In fact, there is nothing whatsoever in any of those charts that indicates the extent of public participation.”
—Lol, So what?
You are destined to get smoked by gold AGAIN all these decades later because you aren’t humble enough to learn something.
So what? Are you kidding me Matthew? Who says EVERYONE needs to be buying gold in order that we get a valid mania? That’s ridiculous. You can have a mania in farmland amongst farmers for example. You could have a mania in music or dance crazes amongst a demographic segment. Punkrock was a mania but my Mother didn’t go out and join in! The discussion here is about a price pattern and a particular chart formation, NOT the quantity of buyers. No wonder you don’t get gold.
Sorry birdman, I cannot disagree with you more. Every mania has been overwhelmingly observed to have had massive public participation. We have yet to see that in gold. Even in 1980 during the gold bubble of that time, there was public participation, big time. I still remember the line ups out the doors of coin dealers.
No I’m not kidding you Bird. I said “so what” because you don’t turn to the charts for the best reading of public participation.
“Every mania has been overwhelmingly observed to have had massive public participation”. — Jthomas
——————————
Is that so? Then it should be easy for you to draw my attention to a complete list of them as I am sure none will have escaped the attention of the kinds of people who like to collect trivia about such things.
And then there will surely be statistics on the percentage of adults in the society who bought and sold Tulip bulbs during the Dutch Mania. Was it 100%…75%….50%…..or a mere 10% of all the people? In fact, now we are discussing it, perhaps you and Matthew can tell me what number even qualifies in percentage terms since you are both so certain of yourselves,
Cabbage Patch Dolls were a mania as one example. Women were beating each other ruthlessly in Department store lineups to get the last items. Did you participate in that by any chance? How many members of your family own a Cabbage Doll?
Birdman. Learn to discern. Fads and bubbles are not the same. Even so, you argue against yourself. Cabbage patch dolls would be great example of how stupid people can get for anything. But a bubble/mania is a process of ever expanding euphoria. The internet bubble started in the year 1990 before it popped in 2000. The single most important factor is that the public in general was heavily invested. As stated before, we have not seen that kind of participation in gold. By the way, there are several books out on mania’s and bubble’s, you should read them.
” The single most important factor is that the public in general was heavily invested. As stated before, we have not seen that kind of participation in gold”. — Jthomas
————-
Put some numbers too it Jthomas. How many people were heavily invested? This is not an idle question because I already know the answers. I can tell you for example that Hilary the Hairdresser with nothing in her bank account was not a buyer. Also she did not lose any money. So maybe you are not quite correct because in truth “the public” was never “heavily invested”.
My point here is this. We know the demographic of investors and we can pull up data on exactly how many of them in percentage terms were involved in that bubble. It was not even close to half. It was not close to 25% either. Like most financial bubbles the drama is confined to the group who have capital, are prepared to use leverage and are known risk takers as a bubble takes shape and rises parabolically. Not all investors fit that group profile so from that known segment of society only a portion were actually involved directly.
So you don’t need widespread participation in gold or even silver in order to create the conditions displayed on the chart. Recall this is a chart we are discussing. Silver’s rise and burst most certainly did meet the conditions we anticpate during the formation of a bubble.
And it happened with just a modest percent of the know investment community actually being involved let alone your assertions that wide swaths of the general public must be there for a bubble to qualify. Bre-X is another case and it is even a better example to support what I am saying.
Not you or anyone else can deny that Bre-X was a classic bubble. Your myth is busted!
The Bre-X Bubble
http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/BubbleComparisonBRE-X.php
Birdman, why do you argue against yourself? Your right, Bre-X was a bubble and there was heavy public participation in Bre-X stock. I know more people who were in Bre_X than I knew in gold when gold was at $1900 . If you Lived in Calgary, like I do, you would know that there were many many people invested in Bre-x. My own brother lost a fortune on that scam. Even fund managers across Canada got caught up in this 1 company bubble and they invested public money from across the country.
There was no bubble in gold from a valuation standpoint. It just got ahead of itself. Quick big gains always result in selling. By the middle of 2011, the Dow had lost nearly 90% of its value vs gold in just over ten years.
Uh hunh…..just got ahead of itself, eh. We have a term for that in the investment world. It is called a mania when prices burst out of control to the upside. Nobody reflects later that it “just got ahead of itself”!
Instead they just wish they had sold at the top.
Ridiculous. There was no mania. As gold was topping in 2011, maybe two or three people out of a hundred wanted to talk about gold in my experience (among people who actually have money). There was a vague increase in interest in it, but I know of very few people who actually cared about or even considered buying any.
The mania is ahead, no doubt about it, but more people agree with you, no doubt about that either.
Bird, I can assure you that gold will go much higher in 10 years. In 20 years we will talk about price which is magnitude higher.
The mania was within the investment world. It was not public as for example the housing bubble was public. You have to admit that gold has lost a lot of its allure since 1980. Nobody I know who was invested in it back then really wants to touch the stuff again. Long memories I suppose. One big difference though was that back in the 70’s we had astonishing inflation and interest rates that blew the doors off what we see today. Gold thrived. My friends were buying 20 year strips with 21% interest attached and urging me to do the same. Like the fool I sometimes am I fell in with the gold camp instead and could kick my arse around the block for not listening to more informed people. Gold crashed. The strip paid off and some guys made millions.
A magnitude is a really big stretch Lawrence. Very optimistic too.
Anyone who was buying gold when fed rate was 20% deserves to lose.
In 20 year, gold is at least $8000-16000, yes.
Maybe you don’t understand what was happening back then Lawrence. In hindsight its all clear as day but when gold was rampaging higher into 1980 there was no end of pumping that it would be going into the thousands per ounce.
Not much has changed I assure you.
And back then there was about zero talk of gold falling on its face and dying. That’s why people were buying and hoarding it and lining up around the block to get the last few pieces.
Not just a few people either. It was a social phenomenon and we thought inflation would not end anytime soon. The high-rate shock therapy was only considered punishment but few believed it would work.
Just as today when the Fed is driving rates down there was a large camp of doubters at that time that thought the moves were a failed idea. Feel free to criticize with 20/20 hindsight.
Did you earn 40% on bonds this past year btw as rates fell? And do you feel I should call you an idiot and say you deserve your implied losses for not understanding how much money was being made each time rates fell by half at exactly the time you were shoveling money into Uranium and gold stocks and losing your shirt on those investment? Please….
Maybe just apologize and we will be done here.
Bird you have to look at fundamentals instead of what people talk. At high interest rate, investing in gold is suicidal. My wife bought brex and a few gold stocks in mid 90s and I talked her out of them.
Don’t call other people idiot because if you try to catch everything, you will lose on every thing. I can call you the same considering how bearish you are in gold. Don’t tell me you did not miss the run from 250-1900.
No more time to argue, bye for the day.
Lawrence says:
Bird, I can assure you that gold will go much higher in 10 years. In 20 years we will talk about price which is magnitude higher.
————————
That’s pretty amusing for a man of science. You are speculating and guessing whereas I am talking chart patterns and facts. You don’t know that gold will be 8 or 16 thousand dollars in 20 years! What kind of scientist are you?
Re: “And back then there was about zero talk of gold falling on its face and dying. That’s why people were buying and hoarding it and lining up around the block to get the last few pieces.”
“Not just a few people either. It was a social phenomenon and we thought inflation would not end anytime soon.”
————
Lol! You just described the signs that come with any major mania top! The dotcom top was no different and the coming top for gold won’t be either.
The gold price in 1980 was sufficient to “back” the monetary base using the 8133 tons the U.S. claims to have; it was sufficient to back foreign held debt; and it was nearly equal to the price of the Dow.
At the same time, real interest rates had turned sharply positive and stock PEs were in the single digits while dividends were approaching double digits.
Gold was very expensive by every measure.
If you read between the lines what I am actually saying is that the gold bull promoters were alive and well and doing a great job manipulating buyers back then just as they did this last time. That was my point.
What was yours?
Bird if I may have to post one more time since you keep name calling. Please be objective. If I said same thing at year 1971 or 2001, you will have same reaction. Now it is very similar, gold price is the same with production cost and silver is under production cost. It is the region the gold suppression scheme has to compensate the short fall of metal with their inventory or short selling without the capability to deliver. They have to retreat. If you look at the chart at 2000 and cut off the right side, it is same as now. World central banks have created unprecedented amount of money since 2009, this is inflation by traditional definition. Inflation always lead to price increase. You cannot give me a period that CBs increase money supply at this rate, never. Time is your friend here. If printing money does not result in inflation, we have found a great way to get rich without work. Just print And get deflation and print more. We are all billionaires soon.i was a physicist so I don’t believe in perpetuated motion.
“Lol! You just described the signs that come with any major mania top! The dotcom top was no different and the coming top for gold won’t be either”.
————
Now I get to LOL. You obviously didn’t notice we already had a mania top in gold. It was confined to the investing world. Maybe you don’t follow gold blogs. It was all over the news though.
To repeat a very simple point for you though, it is NOT necessary for EVERYONE to participate in order for an asset class to form a parabola or bubble formation on a chart. Don’t be so childish. The pattern is independent of the numbers of people who are investing. It is a price chart for Christs sake, not a population chart!
I didn’t call you any names Lawrence. Go back and reread the post.
Re: “You obviously didn’t notice we already had a mania top in gold. It was confined to the investing world.” —Sorry, that’s not what’s meant by “mania.” No “lol” for you. 🙁
Re: “it is NOT necessary for EVERYONE to participate in order for an asset class to form a parabola or bubble formation on a chart.”
—First, “parabola” and “bubble” are not interchangeable. Second, I have never said that it is necessary for EVERYONE to participate for either to happen. EVERYONE did not participate in the gold bubble of 1980 or the dot com bubble.
A bubble requires far more participation than the 2011 gold top but FAR less than “EVERYONE.” I know precision isn’t your thing, but come on.
Matthew says “A bubble requires far more participation than the 2011 gold top but FAR less than “EVERYONE.” I know precision isn’t your thing, but come on”.
OK, lets make this easy for everyone. Tell me what is the percentage of people that are required to make a mania? Manias come in a lot of forms by the way. Pet Rocks, Hula Hoops, Skateboards, Rock-n-Roll, old age homes (Ha!).
Meanwhile, I would agree we should not confuse the words mania and bubble. especially when this article from Gary (remember the article?) was based on a list of charts that he appended.
Go ahead and review the charts. You can easily see similarities in the rise and fall.
So if it walks like a duck….well, you know the rest. All I need is a chart to tell me about public sentiment. I do not even need to know how many people were actually involved in the pattern creation either whether that be a million or 100 million.
You know why? Because it is not relevant so don’t bother waiting for a bigger group of fools to stage a repeat anytime soon. Bubbles don’t build serially within a single asset class over brief periods of time.
So a chart is a chart. That is the facts and its all you need to know without regard to how many people bought and sold or read the newspaper about it. Embedded in the chart is other information that is valid and gives you an idea of the time frames involved in their creation and the magnitude of the bubble.
For example, bubbles that form quickly tend to burst and deflate back to their means with similar speed. Bubbles that form over decades are much more worrisome because similarly we should anticipate a very long period of time to mean revert.
One thing most bubble formations on charts do reasonably well is that their starting points to peak and peak to ending points are roughly equidistant. So a gold bubble that took 15 years to build will reasonably decline for a similar period of time.
I have actually avoided bringing this up in the past on purpose because the very idea would be so repulsive to most people here. But I will tell you now…if gold was in fact in a technical bubble then there are many, many years of price declines still on the horizon.
And before you start arguing with me about how a bubble can or cannot take decades to form I will just stop you right there and refer you to exhibit “A” which is the bond bubble and perhaps the biggest bubble in the world today aside from Derivatives.
Exhibit A: The Bond Bubble as seen through the 10 Year rate — 1790 to 2012
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/04/20130423_10Y.jpg
Please keep this posted on your wall right beside the 15 year gold chart. There is a relationship between them. Then draw a few lines across the bottom. You can readily see that the zero bound was embedded within the chart going back more than two hundred years!
In other words, today’s rates were totally predictable. It does not matter who is in charge and makes the rate changes either. The Federal Reserve has far less control than most assume. Over the very long term we were headed down to zero on a rate basis which is clear as a damn bell when viewed from the big picture.
What we should be most interested in therefore is what this portends for the future and what kinds of consequences must follow on the assumption these patterns are fairly fixed. That is why I am suggesting gold could keep dropping in price for another 11 years and saying it with a straight face.
This chart also tells us a lot about the price of money and its value and where its going. When others talk about the inevitable crack up boom and crash they are not just spinning tales for toddlers. What they are attempting to do is paint the picture for how such a bubble concludes and warn us how to take evasive action before the “event” comes into view.
We are almost there now….so buckle up soldier…its going to get rocky, and gold won’t save you.
Gary, I have marked you as bearish of gold at $1130-$1200. Please don’t argue that you are bullish when price is up a lot. I will disclose this when it comes.
Lawrence,
I’m not sure what you are trying to say. Gold is in an intermediate decline. I tend to think the bear will continue until it at least retraces back to 1000-1050, but I don’t think the secular gold bull is over.
You are bearish now. This is what I am saying. Please don’t claim you are bullish at this time.
In a latter date.
Lawrence,
Yes I’m bearish at the moment. Once the intermediate cycle reaches the next bottom then I will turn bullish again, even if it’s only for a short term bounce.
Since you give specific target, if it does not materialize, you have to apologize to your subscribers to keep them out of the market with you prediction. Since I know we are in a bull market, I would rather say there risk of downside from here , but load up incrementally. Since manipulation is the main factor, you are predicting the work by one guy in the market, which is not what TA is designed for. It targets mass psychology not individual behaviour.
DITTO ……..MANIPULATION………..KEY FACTOR……..NOTHING MORE…..PERIOD….END……………NO BUBBLE…………..OOTB………NPB@ lol
Come on Lawrence! You KNOW we are in a bull market? You must be joking.
You know what I think? I think that you are heavily invested in miners that have lost 70, 80 and 90% of their value and you cannot face the fact that you might NEVER see a recovery for most of them and that you have lost that money forever.
For a scientist you really talk gibberish some days with all your assumptions and presumptions and predictions and bland estimations of massive future price gains backed up by zero evidence or fact.
Can I lead you back into the world of honest investigation perhaps?
Lets start by just sticking to the charts, the patterns and the mathematics.
What he is trying to say is that you often say one thing and then you say something completely different and then promptly deny that you said the first thing. Is that clear enough?
At least Gary keeps an open mind. He gets gold stars for that.
Sorry, this is not a secular gold bull Gary. You just finished posting the evidence of that yourself. Think about what you are saying and what it really means for prices to retrace and mean revert. And then look hard at that gold chart. There is a very clear double top following a parabolic rise. Does that not give you pause to question yourself just a little?
Come on Bird………….the flock is flying in another direction………..lol
You mean the herd. 🙂
Bird,
That just doesn’t look like a bubble to me. Yes it was somewhat parabolic. But look at the Nasdaq and oil. Those were true bubbles. At the top both had rallied huge in the last year with gains in excess of 100% or more. Oil did 200% in the last 18 months. The Nasdaq almost 100% in the last 6 months. At the top the Naz was 57% above the 200 day moving average, oil was 40% above the 200 DMA.
Gold was 28% above the 200 DMA.
That just doesn’t seem like a real bubble top to me.
Plus central banks are still printing money, so I tend to think there will be a thrid phase to this bull market and that’s when the Dow:gold ratio will get back down to 1 or 2.
Up to a point I agree with you Gary. It’s why I keep referring to the silver chart because for me it is a proxy on what golds pattern really means. With silver there is less need to rely on other evidence as it very clearly went parabolic and burst. I guess we will all know for sure when (or if) gold really declines back below three or four hundred dollars! This is uncharted territory on this site though so the backlash does not surprise me. But I have been looking at these charts for years and they offer some uncomfortable conclusions depending on how they are viewed. I do not know any better than you how deeply gold might fall but the technicals do suggest the drop could be epic, severe and a long time to reach a conclusion. It is days like this that I doubt even Armstrong knows what he is talking about with 5000 dollar gold predictions.
Rudy’s comments stem from the fact that Obama was NEVER vetted by the main street media. If it had happened, this story would not be out there. Of course the MSM will never take responsibility for their actions or in actions in this case.
There is noticeable M & A activity in biotec.
But there’s also M & A activity in oil and gas too.
DT….has granted me a new moniker………POSTER CHILD……all inquiry should be directed to………….PCTHELONG.@.lol
Jerry, it’s HPBTHELONG.@.lol, Head Poster Boy!
Sorry DT……thanks for the correction…….j..the.HPB…………
Pretty cheeky j…….. @lol
thanks C…………J@lol
You know what I think……
Obama is a closet Muslim, who is protecting these barbarians out of misguided religious beliefs.
If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck…….it is a duck for all practical purposes.
I agree 100% with Rudy. Obama’s priority being global warming lends credence to my belief that Obama’s intent is to destroy the US from within. Read the IBD article re: global warming.
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/021015-738779-climate-change-scare-tool-to-destroy-capitalism.htm
MARKET ALERT!!!
Huge volume bought on GLD in the open market:
More then 150K shares in a single shoot…
We are near the botton.
thanks Peter………………..
Buying in anticipation of a bounce, not a full throttle uptrend back into bull territory. I would not get excited about it.
Bird let the charts dictate that as you say. D’ont speak for them 🙂
+1 😉
Will do Glen. The charts offer damning evidence thus far. What more needs to be said?
In part, a agree with you.
I have found that the RSI(14) gives one indication of tops and bottoms in GLD.
We, by this indicator, are not quite at a bottom yet, with RSI = 37.8
But IF we have seen the low, GLD can go for years without going much below 36. After bottoming in September, 2008, it didn’t become oversold again based on the RSI(14) for about 3.5 years. The blue line on the following chart is placed at 36.22:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&st=2008-08-23&en=2011-01-01&id=p89620602443&a=391137896
Did you plot 14 month, instead of 14 day RSI?
Day. Here’s the same chart but weekly:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&st=2008-08-23&en=2011-01-01&id=p70012065575
In a strong bull market, the weekly RSI(14) reading of 50 becomes an area in which to buy. In a strong bear, it is an area one would sell.
In a bear market, the daily RSI(14) will go to 30 and below regularly, just as in a bull market it will go to 70 and above regularly.
But look at RSI and tops and bottoms in:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD
e.g. on Oct 5, Nov6, Jan 22.
we’re not quite below RSI=30 today….
I understand, but if you look at my first chart (which is a daily chart) you’ll see that we can’t expect to go much lower than 36 IF (big IF) this is the start of a new cyclical bull market. In other words, if November ’14 proves to be like September ’08, we may not see the RSI reach an oversold reading for years.
Time will tell.
I still don’t believe we are at a bottom…….yet….
I’m much more confident that silver and the miners have bottomed but am still leaning toward gold having already done so, too.
That’s all I need to get short again! Thanks Chart-Boy, you are truly a contrarian indicator. 😉
Get an education regarding forthcoming events in the world.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgzr_r_Tj5w
You don’t have to be dead beats, naive, ignorant, uninformed and most
of all dumb downed like 98 % of the population who will be wrong regarding
their complacency ignoring everything around them.
Denial won’t change the facts. Unfortunately, few do know the truth.
You don’t need to argue with me. Its fairly spelled out in this video.
Then believe what you want. Arguing with me and enraged by the truth
won’t help any of us.
I post this because some ask why on this board. Here it is.
YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED !!!! The bad things forthcoming are realistic.
No messages please. Just make up your own mind. The video is current today.
Here’s another video current as of today.
This will also fill in more blanks. There is so much that
is and playing up to a coming world catastrophic event.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Wxwz9b4F_M
Like I said you make up your own mind. No point in arguing with me.
Its counter productive and redundant.
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LIVE BROADCAST regarding prophetic news and times we live.
http://www.emoaf.org/Evangelist-Anita-Fuentes-Live-On-Air-Radio-TV-Broadcast.html
Starts 5pm..PST….ends 7pm..PST
John Brown expert in geopolitics and advisor to Margaret Thatcher.
NUCLEAR WAR IS VERY SERIOUS AND A GREAT GREAT RISK.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_rgtKzKrPw
Anyone who mocks me thinking this is a very remote possibility
isn’t paying attention. YOU NEED TO START…a.s.a.p.
EAT YOUR HEART OUT……GOLDS BOTTOMED !!!!
http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2015/02/pro-calls-bottom-in-gold/
Amateurs like ..BIRD AND GANG….just aren’t up to speed. D.A.’s incl.Vortex too.
Their getting ready to ..F ..the internet.
Don’t tell me this is fear mongering BS… either…
America has become a Nazism state. World war is at hand.
http://www.trunews.com/monday-february-23-2015-dr-laurence-white/
gary I read your weekend view of oil being held up by fed. You called for a oil rally of several weeks exactly at the top of the three day reversal at beginning of February. It has since gone sideways at best and after nearly a month not exceeded that interday high.
Gary It seems that whenever your view on gold, oil, markets etc goes the opposite to your call, the blame for your missed call lies with the fed because of their manipulation of markets by either selling or buying the market. If that’s the case, how can any of your subscribers have any confidence in any of your calls on the direction of the various markets. It’s all up to the fed as to what happens and it seems you can be sure of that.
You now say that oil is not likely to come down because the fed doesn’t want that to happen. Well if the fed happened to be that concerned they would have intervened long before now. You made a similar observation back in November that the slide in oil would be over following the mid term elections as it was in the interests of the government to have low oil prices going into mid term elections. In fact it was following the mid term elections that the slide in oil prices accelerated and hasn’t looked back except for a three day pop in early February which has not been exceeded since a month later. Now you have some theory concerning gold rally if the biotechs rally. I would venture to bet that if biotechs rally then all markets will likely get caught up in the blowoff, except for bond. I’d appreciate any response you might want to provide as by my calculation these speculations are simple musings and not prescient market analysis.
John,
Give oil time. I’m not talking day trading. I’m talking about a multi week or even month bear market rally. Oil hasn’t finished that yet. While it may retest the lows I think we still have more to go before this counter trend rally is finished.
Anyone have any thoughts / views on what Gary thinks about the biotechs? Anything that does not include Obama, Russians, Islam, gold or the end of the world?
Thank you 🙂
Well, as sick as the baby boomers are, ,,,,biotechs should be a good investment…..
As, long as Big Pharm contributes to the politicians, and contributes to colleges,(Lilly, just gave $40million to Purdue Univ.) healthcare should be considered an investment…..jmho….
Yes Bob. I disagree with him.
What do you disagree with? Why?
Do you merely disagree with Gary’s theory about biotech because it conflict with your views on gold and silver?
Can I get back to you another day, Bob? I have my hands full arguing with goldtards right now!
Bob
I actually liked today’s session with Gary; I know he thinks (guesses) biotech is going to be the next bubble, for any number of reasons. It would have been interesting to see Bonds across the same time-period. In general, I agree with him – there is probably another sector out there that will rise to ridiculous highs as new and hot money tries to get in for the rise.
However, I’m not really sure that the NEXT bubble (after BioTech) will be the PMs. It is just as possible, that the PMs will move slowly upwards (or sideways) for years.
By the way, the inclusion of BitCoin was interesting; it has a CLASSIC bubble chart (and a long way to go downward, still)
One other comment. It would have been nice to see the biotech in the same time-frame (X-Axis). It might have just been a portion of the years (1998-2015), but mismatched scales when doing comparisons makes me crazy.
Thanks for your thoughts.
if you make enough predictions, you then have the luxury of relating back to the one’s that end up correct as part of your astute forecasting. Gamblers at casinos only report back on their wins and stay silent on their losses
Bird, I read your post above but for me the real problem with the markets or any commodity like Gold is we don’t know who is going to be the economic power anymore and this creates a lot of uncertainty in the World.
Clearly we have speculative fever in the markets caused by The Federal Reserve lowering interest rates to zero per cent. It looks like they will have to start purchasing treasury bonds in the open market as China and Russia unload that means more money printing which is really currency debasement. European nations can’t stabilize their currency, and their exchanges are weak. Gold no longer flows into America it is headed instead for Asia. The easing of money rates even further ie: negative interest rates can not be used any more to benefit trade, much of Europe already has this. American business has lost a lot of headway and continues to do so.
What The World is lacking is a clear and defined path as well as leadership. Until this gets sorted expect the unexpected but hold some of the one thing that has remained constant and held it’s value for centuries. DT
Good sign of a reversal coming…………….BLACK AND DECKER, said manufacturing in China is not as profitable, and is looking to bring back manufacturing to the USA……POSTER BOYLLC, @lol
HBP, it’s funny you should mention Black and Decker, I am very familiar with their products which I have never liked, low end comes to my mind. If they want to come back home I hope they improve their quality.
They still come with a two year warranty DT. That’s good enough for me.
I do agree,,,,they are low quality…………..The last saw I had, after 25 years I threw away………….Of course , I like Craftman tools, guaranteed for life………….pcllc@lol
25 years wasn’t enough?!!!!! What the heck do you expect from a plastic housing?
Oh I get it now…..you were being a comedian.
Jerry the hoarder, he keeps everything for 25 years or until his neighbors complain. LOL
DT…..I think you are correct….I must be a hoarder…..I still have my 84 Merc Benz.parked on farm………J. THE HOARDER………..
J…THE LONG…Did they say why it has become less profitable to build in China?……
Gator…….transportation…..labor cost………, I heard this early morning radio….PBS station…
J….THE LONG…thanks….I have a Black and Decker circular saw purchased in 1975 MADE IN THE USA…that still runs like a champ..metal housing, replaceable bearings and shaft…very heavy…cuts through 4×4’s without stressing the motor….won’t find one like this today…anywhere except flea markets….regards….
I wasn’t joking about having my BandD…for 25 years……..and , I do like craftsman tools.
That makes two of us Gator. I have an aluminum housed B&D disk grinder and no idea what year it was made but it still operates pretty much as well as the day I first got it. The thing was already old geezer in 1985 and I changed the brushes a few times since then. Still have the plastic ones too. No complaints here.
I appreciate that DT. For me though, gold has a lot of work to gain my confidence as a buy and hold. Especially in the physical forms which really don’t interest me anymore. Right now it is still unquestionably in a bear so I can only wait and reserve judgement until that time we get a real final bottom. We may just have to come to grips with the idea that gold is going to fall lower than most here can possibly imagine right now.
ENERGOLD DRILLING………….anybody watching this stock………..UP 10% today….thanks j………….
J, I’m not watching it and do not own it, but I like the management. Despite today’s 12% gain, it’s still trading at just .37 times book and three times the cash it has. Then there’s this from 3 months ago:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/energold-drilling-announces-third-quarter-130000312.html
thanks Matthew………….appreciate……………………….J…………
Hey Big Al … RUDY WHO? He’s been MIA! Besides he’s never been vetted out either.
You really like to stir the pot…LOL
I think Gary made some really good comments on thie segmant and I like his charts, showing the big picture.
BBH that used to be called Biotech Holdrs that had about 20 stocks in it at the time was screaming in 1999 but it isn’t currently outperforming the S&P500 spectacularly. So I agree with Gary and it’s about the same with IBB that he mentioned.
In 1999 some of the tech and biotech stocks left their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages way behind and were going totally parabolic for most of 1999. They were probably at double their 200dma price. I wish I still had some of these charts saved form the time. Amgen AMGN and Genentech (DNA, I can’t find this now but I think it has been bought out) were going nuts as I described.
I bought a book around 1999 called ‘The Biotech Century’ by Keremy Rifkin that somehow epitomises that bubble (as did anouther book by him ‘The Hydrogen Economy’ on the new energy tech front).
A MORE IMPORTANTREMARK:
GARY’S CHART OF THE NASDAW FROM 1999 TO 2015 LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GOLD CHART FROM 1979 TO 2011. FIRST BUBBLE FOLLOWED BY SECOND MAYBE BUBBLE.
NASDAQ
Gold chart that looks like the 1999-2015 Nasdaq chart:
http://capmatters.com/wp/just-what-is-quantitative-easing-about-anyway/
(and by the way it was jeremy Rifkin who wrote the book)
M1 money supply since that video is up more than 50%:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m1
I think the word “bubble” gets thrown around too easily/too often. The Nasdaq fell 79% in 31 months; the $HGX fell 81% in 40 months; and oil fell 77% in just 7 months. So each true bubble gave back about 80% while gold has given back half that, just 41% in 38 months (and is now 41 months past its peak). The Nasdaq actually gave back a whopping 73% in just the first 18 months after its peak. Gold was down 19% 18 months after its peak and 31% 19 months out —nowhere near 73%.
Gold’s valuation and subsequent price action were not indicative of a bubble.
You are assuming that the declines have ended, Matthew. Bad call. We are still in a falling price pattern for gold and there is no assurance we cannot see much steeper losses. A 50% decline off the peak puts us below 1000 dollars. That should be expected at the very minimum don’t you think?
No, I haven’t assumed anything. I just provided the facts. A lower low for gold won’t change the fact that the real bubbles lost more than twice as much value for the given time frames. Get it?
Gold would have to go to $400 VERY soon in order to match the declines put in by the Nasdaq etc.
I’m sorry to inform you that a 50% decline is just a correction and is not typical of a popped bubble.
Now you are getting it. You are right because 50% won’t do it if this is really a bubble that is popping. Even you admit that each bubble gave back about 80% so then what that suggests is a lot of tears between here and the final lows.
Now I’m getting it?! Damn you’re funny.
Re: “Even you admit that each bubble gave back about 80%…” —Lol! I’m not admitting it I’m informing YOU of it.
Are you now calling for $400 gold???
Its your percentages and data, buddy. What are you saying? 😉
Well, I guess if it was a bubble it goes to $400, Harry Dent would be proven correct and all he had to know was gold was in a bubble.
Wouldn’t that make everyone in this industry look knowledgeable.
Oleary would be shown to be correct, PM miner management the worst on earth and the pumpers to be no more than charlatans.
I guess there is a little more than money on the line, reputations too.
My guess is there is going to be a little praying going on. lol
A 79% decline from $1923 would put gold at $400. Which should have happened by now if gold was in a bubble.
For the record, I am not wondering if gold was in a bubble, I know that it was not.
Matthew…WHY would that have had to happen by now? What tells you that your time schedule is what dictates when gold would have had to return to 400? Basically you are just making more assumptions without offering any proof of how you arrived at them.
Look man, we are in the declining stages of a gold bear right now as we speak and it has not ended even after four long years. Does that not maybe suggest to you something is different about this particular bubble? That maybe we should dig deeper and question the basic ideas?
Take a long look at past bubble charts and trace out the trough to trough. Where is the peak? Would you agree it is roughly in the center in most cases? Up above Gary has appended the Real Estate and Tech bubbles as two good examples of what I am talking about.
So then if gold was indeed in a bubble and its peak was at 1920 dollars then we might easily conclude we are nowhere near the conclusion to this drama of price declines. That in fact YEARS of declines still lie ahead in the future.
And to make matters much worse, IF those assumptions are valid…..then what is it really telling us about how deep a depression the world is about to enter and just how long it will last?
What I am saying here is that if gold did in fact bubble, peak and pop then we are f*cked for a very, very long time (economically speaking!) and we had better quickly rethink our entire hypothesis of what constitutes a good investment to survive what is coming.
—————————————
BB…did Dent really say we were going to 400 dollars? Thanks for weighing in here by the way. Now that the conversation has turned a little different direction I am thinking not so much of gold but my personal survival all of a sudden. As if gold is the canary that is telling us the future of the world economy but we need to dig deeper and divine what it really means if we have a hope of understanding it all.
I know Matthew desperately wants gold to be the trade of the century. Who doesn’t? But what I am wondering now is this….what if 1920 was the final multi decade top? What if that is as good as it gets and we really do need to wind it back to a few hundred dollars?
And what does that tell us about wealth itself?…or our futures? We need an open mind here.
That is very interesting Silverbug Dave. Food for thought indeed.
Yes indede thank’s Dave !
@Gary, I find it interesting that you include Bitcoin in your analysis, but I’ve got two comments for you:
1. You can’t, in any serious manner, compare Bitcoin to the other markets you mention — it’s a small fraction in terms of size. At its peak the entire Bitcoin market was worth about $15-billion… You’d have to do a little digging to find just one S&P stock worth less than that; most blue-chip stocks are many multiples of it — and that’s *for one company*, not an entire asset-class.
2. If you want to talk about ‘bubbles’ in Bitcoin, you need to take a much broader view of the chart — logarithmically. Even for just the last three years, it’s clear there’s been more than one ‘bubble’: https://i.imgur.com/0Gnk1Vih.png
Stepping back a bit further it’s even more clear: https://i.imgur.com/l6Ysgj3h.png
(I’m not necessarily endorsing the “buy”/”sell” indicators there, fwiw.)
That said, it is interesting that Bitcoin did *appear to* begin responding to “macro” events in 2013… as you allude to. I’ll be keenly watching to see how it responds going forward as well.
In case you’ve got a few minutes, I wrote about Bitcoin’s three major deflations (at least) here: https://spendabit.co/blog/bitcoin-disproves-keynesian-deflation-theory
Thanks for your thoughts!
Another insider claim that all markets are manipulated by government and there is no longer any real market. A former member of PPT Dr. Pippa Malmgren breaks rank with government. Obama is not lucky in the last few years, a stream of insiders either seek alylum in hostile countries or break rank with his government completely. I never remember this happened before. It takes courage for these people to do it since they know too much and involved in government for generations like Dr. Malmgren. They at least lose opportunity to work with elites again and might be suicided. It keeps happening, it means these insiders consider it is terminal now. It is meaningless to work with government again.
I listened to her many times in KWN. Even she criticizes the economic policies, she always maintain that she has faith in FED and government even as Mr. King tried to lure her to say it. Now this is new.
Lust listened to it.
Kinda nuts to be in markets I think, more proof they are entirely criminal.
Eventualy people will figure it out and just stop playing.
Maybe the big companies, the ones that buy the polititians continue, guess the way to go is buy whatever they want to go up.
As they continue to hammer gold/silver, that might be a “smucks” game.
The only way I can see gold not dropping to wherever they want to put it, is people figure out that shares are paper and they buy enough physical to start to have an effect.
Guess all gold/silver share buyers will be cheering for China,Russia etc
I wonder if that could be considered terrorism or treason.
Have to ask the guys that passed the patriot act and ndaa I guess.
It looks like PMs and the mining stocks are about to take the plunge. It’s looked like it before… But not quite like it does now….
I agree Chartster. The clouds will darken yet more if GDX falls below 20 dollars. Are you following the discussion above by the way? Do you have an opinion on what a confirmed gold bubble pattern portends? I mean, setting aside all the gold bull propaganda that keeps polluting everyone’s thinking can you see the worry I am expressing and how serious this suddenly looks?
Maybe Rick or Chris can offer an opinion on gold based on the bond bubble chart. I personally believe that our future (and golds prospects) are encoded in the value of money as expressed in the Ten Year. Take a look at this chart again and tell me if you see anything that should be causing us to worry…..
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/04/20130423_10Y.jpg
Hi Birdman,
I hope you read this. I really enjoy hearing your thoughts on gold even though Matthew and others don’t like what you have to say. Do you have a financial blog or something I can follow your thoughts on? I also keep waiting on a pullback to enter into the short side in gold miners, but gold keeps falling it seems. Do you see it rising back to at least $1220 again before the big collapse?
Also, do you follow Martin Armstrong?
Lol, Bird hadn’t even heard of Armstrong 18 months ago and thought he was stealing his material.
FYI, it is Bird that can’t stand what I say. Ever notice that he’s fine with what I say just as long as someone else says it? He is obviously not rational or objective.
You won’t catch me disagreeing with him just because it’s him yet that’s his M.O. with me.
Good luck.
Sure Wiseguy, I have started following Martin since I became aware of him recently. Matthew is correct that I did not know about his work from the past. But that is no crime because I have always been an independent and relied on no other judgements or insights but my own. Frankly though I think Armstrong is a genius although I personally dislike his politics. He makes excellent observations on capital flows as one example that I really appreciate hearing because finding common sense in this business is like counting hens teeth some days…..and no, I do not have a blog. This is the only place that I post comments anymore.
If Al boots me its over….. Goodbye cruel world!
There was a nice pop in oil today that allowed me to dump my xop position as it was just a fake move up on news of an opec emergency meeting.
I don’t get all the talk about charts. What did the charts tell you about APL before it took off like a rocket. or GM and GE before they crashed? And how do you interpret the manipulation of PM. Would PM have gone to 3k and 100 or higher?
I guess what I’m saying is that PM are different than stocks anyways , even in a true market. They mostly go up because of fear of collapses and fear of inflation. What makes it stay up are collapses and inflation.
I don’t think anyone could deny that the whole world has never been in this bad of shape along with money being backed by nothing but hope. There will be right offs and hair cuts, we just don’t know when.
What’s wrong with PM guns and ammo and extra food? Isn’t it better to be a early than a day late?
Money is backed by the productive capacity of the country issuing it. Money is just a way to store productive value.
Gregd,
Ditto to that post
“Chartster” doesn’t get all the talk about charts? 😮
Heh heh, ok bud..
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WAS GOLD IN A BUBBLE…………………….
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Just because it was in a bubble doesn’t mean that it can’t outdo it’s last one. I’m with Avi who says this is the pullback, and others have said it can drop to as low as $750 – 900. I agree, and think it will happen before mid next year. Then as Martin Armstrong says, gold will launch higher as it becomes more obvious that the governments around the world can’t stay in control of the coming burst in gov’t bonds. US Dollar and gold will rise together, then as people lose faith in the US, I imagine gold will rocket up (if another alternative hasn’t yet replaced it by then as a solid safe haven).
Like I said, people throw the word around way too much. Gold took nearly 3 years to put in its last double on the way to its high and did not collapse afterward by anywhere the percentage that typically occurs. Then there’s valuation and participation… simply no mania, no bubble.
Keep in mind that Armstrong was calling for gold to fall another 20%+ when it was making its low in the $250 area fifteen years ago. He was also sure that silver would go to two dollars and change. Talk about wrong.
Thanks Wiseguy! ….(get lost Matty!)
wait a minute………..good was not in a BUBBLE…..$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
gold…..I mean………..
Y’all know I’ve been looking for the gold wash. So uh, yeah, gold should get washed out real soon.
Doc was saying he thinks it will be flat for a while, and it does look like that from the TA. However, the PMs could also get crushed down and come back to the value we are at quickly, which is also in the chart. The indicators are screaming washout. But I do agree with Doc stating it won’t blast off until late this year or early next year. Then maybe we get our ” to the moon scenario ”
So yes, gold bubble about to pop!
Bubble?! Nope.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Bubble? Definitive and absolute.
The hardest thing in this PM market is when to buy up the mining stocks. With this next big drop coming. I believe march will see the bottom.
I do know 1130 on gold ain’t even close to a bottom.
Scencerely speaking, I don’t think we should own too much mining equities if any. Under this environement, they will be wiped out. The ones left will be a fraction of former self. Gold will go up because it takes physical gold to suppress gold price. However, the suppression of gold price is enough to send most miners into bankruptcy.
Lawrence,
It’s to the graveyard and “To da basement” lol..
Lawrence,
I agree with that. But if it’s a quick wash and a bounce the miners should be fine.
Charster, I don’t agree with your wash out theory. However, it plays no role in my argument. Under the current price, it is enough to kill most miners. central banks will only allow the gold to rise to the point they can control without losing all their gold. It is always lower than the break even cost of most of the miners. They know with the current easy money, miners will borrow and produce just to make money for the executives. Nobody care about shareholders. This is same with shale oil production, everyone is producing at loss and executive get rich and shareholders see the value erode.
It is a sickening system and it will result in mal-investment in a grand scale.
The whole sector will come roaring back once the bottom is in.
Question is…..where is that bottom going to be found and how many years before we get there?
It’s funny, I agree and disagree with both of you. There will not be a washout and the miners will be fine.
Newmont is up 45% in the last two months and the sector is very cheap.
I agree with Stewart Thomson:
“Mining companies are in a sweet spot now. Game changing events are occurring on the demand side in both India and China, inflationary pressures are rising in America, and lower oil prices are reducing the costs of mining.
In 2015, gold stocks are acting much better than gold itself, as I predicted they would. I expect this outperformance to continue for many years.”
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_022415.html
I guess this is where we differ. I don’t see miners make money with Central Bankers in control. Without making money, the best they can do is to oscillate. As they build up debt, their value will decline and they actually have been. SInce I don’t have a lot of time to watch, I’d rather put my money where I don’t have to trade. Maybe oneday, FED will lose control, then miners will shine.
The bear market in miners is ending and the leaders have been in a bull market for awhile now. At the moment, CRJ is up 164% since June.
Cherry picking does not make a bull theme. There are thousands of companies in the sector that are under water, out of money, about to bankrupt or in case of active mines, close to shut down if they don’t get a merger or new money.
Show me a sector wide rise and maybe you have a case. One company won’t do it.
The gold mining SECTOR is up over 20% in the last few months. You can remove your foot from your mouth now. 😉
Cute, but don’t give me winky faces until the fat lady sings. You know as well as anyone where the last gold bottom was and it is becoming clear we will return there again….right along with the seasonal uptick in miners which cannot hold if gold does not rise. ;(
Btw…GDX has fallen below the 50 day and is just pennies away from a technical failure. That drop since Janaury has been pretty steep, Chart Boy. Maybe it is you who needs to get his foot out of his mouth for a change. If gold cannot rally soon we are heading for a retest at the minimum.
Personally, I happen to think this will all get a lot worse before it gets better.
I have given up on miners for years. I sold most of them in 2010-2011, except 900 SilverCorp. The ones I have now are mostly dividend paying solid companies, which I bought in 2013-2014. I don’t like their movement so when time comes, I will sell all of them. I should have avoided them too.
What I like is physical metal and physical backed ETFs like central fund or Sprott funds.
Matt, read some articles by Andrew Hoffman. You will know what I mean. It is so hard for me to find someone who has nearly 100% agreement with my view 😉
I think Jim Willie agrees with you, too. I’m not real familiar with Hoffman, but one could make the case that he is biased due to his employer.
Mark my words, even those who aren’t good stock pickers will beat gold by a wide margin by buying the mining ETFs.
Matt, I rarely listen to Willie, Celente as well. I feel they are too emotional.
I agree if you are good trader, you can make more by trading gold ETF but not everyone is good trader and it is hard to make money on a down trend stock. JMHO.
Bubble charts.
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2015/02/charts-day-17.html