Did the swing yesterday in the markets change the general trends?
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Keep your eye on the Canadian dollar because it has maybe seen a double bottom at 78 and is now beginning to bounce. So why do I mention that?…..well it because both the Euro and the Loonie began falling in sympathy with one another between May and July of 2014. Secondly, the Canadian dollar is easier to read where reversals are concerned and if this is indeed a bounce it might be telling us something about the Usd / Euro pair. Last….well it is a commodity currency and often indicates changes that are going to be taking place in gold and crude.
I agree Birdman. The Loonie and Euro should both bounce while the dollar either just topped last night or will top very soon in the 100-102 range. That should give commodities in general a nice little tradeable pop.
needs one more day imo for a double bottom. Should hit .76 intraday and close above the 77.08-77.28 which was the close bottom in 2008. Euro 102-103? dollar 102-105? 105 is a stretch.
Good thoughts Glen. We’ll wait and see if we get that today or tomorrow. I could see 102, but I do think 105 is a stretch on this upleg before the Dollar corrects. Now by May/June I think we’ll be in the 108-110 range before it tops for a larger correction.
Thanks Shad..Maybe the euro and dollar meet half way and kiss lol..Let’s say 102-103 at parity.
I could see that happening sometime soon. Cheers!
However, we can’t rule out completely that last night may have been the top in the dollar when it tagged 100. Need to see of the dollar/euro parity idea plays out or if we are already starting the short-term dollar correction and PM bounce.
Well Glenfidish – the dollar essentially went up and tagged 100.39, which is like a double top from 2 nights ago. This could be noting a top in the dollar, but I’ll consent that due to the FOMC meeting next week, we may get one last push to 102 at the beginning of next week. I really don’t expect the Fed to raise rates at this meeting, but maybe some do.
Terrific guys. Glad to see you looked in on that. Its always nice if you can get a confirmation for a trade from another source that is not always obvious unless you are hunting for correlations. They don’t always hold though unfortunately or there can be long delays between them as one catches up to another. But if they do you have the inside track.
They did a great job, thanks Shad. Big Al is incapacitated until tomorrow! Getting old is not for kids!
Ha! Well take care of yourself Big Al and have a good day of rest and rejuvenation. It doesn’t look like anything significant is happening for the balance of the day, and until tomorrow…. Thanks for all you and Cory do!
LIKE I SAID LAST WEEK, THE RIGGING BOYS HAVE THEIR ORDERS TO KEEP THE PRICE OF GOLD DOWN AS YOU SAW LAST NIGHT……………….THIS IS WHY THE NEW PHYSICAL EXCHANGES WILL BE SO IMPORTANT GOING FORWARD!
Good point about the physical exchanges, Mark.
AND SOON THEY WILL HAVE TO SHOW FACE ………….ARBITRAGE OR STEP ASIDE !!!!!!!
Gary,
Interesting points about the cycle count. For the record Gary,doc, if and when we challenge 1130, will this be a second attempt or a third attempt at 1130?
The reason I ask is because there is much discrepancy upon pundits some saying second time and others are saying third time because the swiss vote would have been the seconf time? To me it would seem as attempt number two?
I think it is attempt number two. The other time the price-point was seen was in overseas trading, the question is do you count the full 24/7 chart or the US charts?
That is why I thought 1137 was more relevant than 1130; however round numbers like 1130 are often where traders place stop/limit orders, and are psychologically relevant towards sentiment.
Makes sense Shad and thanks for your comments. Im incline to be open minded and personally I think the distance would be to short for a double bottom but you never know what mother market gives us.
True, you never know exactly what the market will do. I think we may bounce in PMs for a week or so before that level is tested though. The top in the dollar and bottom in the Euro/Loonie/Aussie Dollar should be very soon, and give a little counter-trend move first.
I think 1137 and 1130 will fail in late April or May and 1044.70 will be tested personally, so it probably is a moot point on where the first support is, because it will just bounce there temporarily and then head further down.
Now if gold did get down to 1137 or 1130 before the dollar puts in it its short-term top, then that would be more significant for a double, or some would say triple bottom at that level. That would actually be better for Gold, because then it may pull back up more sharply.
If we wait until Apr/May to do the final bottom, as I would more likely expect, then we’ll probably move down through that first support more aggressively in the late spring.
Shad don’t rule out a bottom next year first or second quarter of 2016. I know your keen on summer final bottom but be careful. This bear has been ugly. At this point the best one can do is add on capitulation on a miner that has minimal debt and cash on hand with credit facility. Also management team.
That is sound advice Glen. I don’t think it helps to get married to an idea or theory, and since it is so far off, we’ll just have to wait to see what wildcards are thown at us.
However, I do believe when looking at the monthly and weekly charts in Gold that it has farther down to go before bottoming. Also, after the feeble display to try an rally in late Jan/early Feb and failing to fall lower in Feb, then that confirmed we would head lower into March and we have. At this point we have not tested the 1137 or 1130 zone yet, and as discussed, I think we are due for a short term reversal for a week or two based strictly what is going on with currencies.
Most bear markets in gold have been 3-4 years and if we are 46 months into this bear, then the bottom being in about 2 more months puts us right at 4 years. Now, could it take 4/12 or 5 year to bottom – of course….anything can happen ; – )
However, the most likely forecast is a bottom during the sell in May and go away zone, a lower low near $1045, and then a final wash out of sentiment in the gold space. Maybe it continues to flatline into June, but I really expect the Fall to be positive for the PMs and bad for the general markets. That is just my 2 cents!
Glen, Shad, have you guys noticed that just about single smart commentator is sure that a significantly lower low is coming? If I were a bear right now, that would make me nervous. There’s too much anticipating going on.
Sorry, should read “EVERY single smart commentator…”
Yes, the herd mentality is concerning, because that is exactly when the market does something unexpected. There still is a 10% chance that the bottom was 1130 and that we move up from here without testing that Nov low, but it seems like the market wants to test that level, and even lower to finally wash the remaining bullish sentiment out of the marketplace.
I think it will be a process of bottoming and not a one day event, and I just don’t think November was it. Hey, I’ve been wrong plenty of times before thought : – )
Yes, a test or even a marginal new low seems very reasonable but most are calling for a significant new low. That’s what I’m not so sure about. GDXJ’s current leverage to gold is about 8 to 1 since each bottomed two days ago. I think there’s a good reason for it.
We’ll see…
Since gold has had a downward tendency for a while now, with the counter-trend leg up from Nov – Jan, then it stands to reason the next down leg will break through the old lows at $1137 or $1130.
My best guess would be the $1044.70 target (from Oct 30th, 2009). I think the $1048 area also matches a Fib retracement level. That area between 1050-1044 should be good support. This move down will coincide with the commodity cycle bottom and top in the dollar, so that is why I think it is the upcoming “Major Bottom” and around 4 years of the Bear market.
I don’t care gold going down or up since I cannot predict it and nobody can. If gold does drop to 1080, all the better since I can buy more. If gold reverses from here, it is good too. I am contrarian. Even though contrarians have been losing for the last few years but they eventually will win. By contrarian I mean those who follow the common sense and yet against the majority who follow the mainstream media or price movement. Currently, the cost of production is above the price of metals. It is always a good buy to buy metals at or below the production cost. It always looks the worst at the lows.
Down side is small and upside is big. Historically, gold price rises with monetary expansion. Next 10 years will not be exception. If the economic law has been changed, I am willing to lose my money.
We know that the modern economics (Keynesian) is mostly against common sense, so the chance of winning against the crowd is actually better since the crowd are spoon fed the junk economics and have lost the independent thinking.
Well, like I said, it didn’t think we would test 1137 or 1130 today, but I kept the potential open as I wasn’t sure if the dollar would hit the low range of 100 – 102 or the higher level. Since the dollar just got up into the 100.39 area today, there wasn’t much pressure on commodities overall. If the dollar had spiked to 101-102 that may have been a different story.
Again, I think we’ll definitely test 1137-1130 range yet this spring, but we likely will get an uptrend first in late March/earlier April and then plunge down one last time.
We might be posting an inside reversal on silver today.
Definitely something to keep an eye on as we may already be correcting in the dollar and heading up in PMs if last night was the top in the $. As Glen pointed out this could be a head-fake, where the Loonie and Euro need to put in a double-bottom first. We’re right on the cusp but need to see what happens today, tonight, and Friday to know for sure.
I think its a head fake..Tomorrow down. But im not most certified trader out here.
Yep. I’m in wait and see mode, and the market isn’t doing anything now one way or the other…..(of course). You may be right sir, and it would be more typical to have a head fake, another blip down, and then the bounce. Looks like we’ll have to wait until tomorrow as it is getting long in the tooth today.
Gary also is it possible the ICL may end tomorrow and start a new one? What would you need in order for that to occur? A swing low and that would confirm a start of a new intermediate rally in gold? Just want you to clarify that because this daily cycle is confusing along with icl at the same time.
Glen,
It’s possible that an ICL could begin here. Gold would need to rally far enough to break the intermediate trend line.
Thanks Gary
euro and canadian dollar look very cheap here . But dont fight the tape. AT some point oil and gold recover and then the canadian dollar recovers . If i were a younger man i might take 200 k and go to edmonton alberta and buy several single family houses and rent them out. Canadian real estate is on sale now for usa investors . My age and health preclude this . best to you all S
That’s a great idea r scott;
I’ve thought of it myself;
although, if I was willing to deal with renters, I’d drive 4 hours north of Edmonton to Fort McMurray.
From what I’ve read, they’re really hurting up there.
We should start a Real estate hedge fund among the family…………j
we would need to make sure Al, is not in charge of tenant selection….
yabbut he could be in charge of rent collection.
I was thinking bird should be in charge of rent collecting,, after a couple of calls to the dead beats, they would move out immediately, and pay him not to call……….
No Jerry, I have goons for those kinds of jobs.
Man, isn’t that the absolute truth. Our first tenant was great; second had to be evicted; third had to be evicted and the jury is out on the current one.
What a mess!
Al, you might just stick to day trading…….lol
This article from Jan 2015 shows one subdivision in Fort McMurray had one listing per 76 residents.
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/a-roadmap-to-fort-mcmurrays-tanking-housing-market/
Scott I differ from your opinion. Im just more in line with rate hikes will begin in the next few years. It will chop into your equity if rates go up then prices will come down. We are at basically the bottom of the barrel in rates in canada for the longest time. This is where I would not put my money unless you are paying it off full but then it’s still a gamble. Buy in a country where rates are astronomical and home prices dirt cheap, Not in over priced market in canada and bank of canada rates at .50
The canadian dollar may bounce but then it’ll in all likelihood head lower for another leg down. After the next leg down, it’ll probably be a good move to turn some of your extra American dollars into the Canadian dollar and then wait for the move up. After all, why not hold on to some other fiat currency to trade it higher in the future for your own fiat currency.
Agreed Doc. This will probably be a short-term bounce while the dollar corrects, and the Euro/Loonie/Austalian dollar all bounce. Commodities will bounce along with.
You are correct that after that the dollar will head higher, the Candian Loonie and Euro may head lower, and the commodities will do their final major bottom (over May-June).
Great point Doc. Hedge your corrective US dollar decline with rising Loonies.
Doc would 1130 be a second attempt or a third attempt at that number. Good points by the way. Also let us know when you find claude attractive again.
I am encouraged by how well Claude has stood up in the face of lower metal prices, but have been a fan of their company for years (when it wasn’t being appreciated or properly valued). It has been on an absolute tear lately, and I really messed up by selling at $.41 last week, as it is back up to $.45 today. Personally, I thought it would pull back a little while the metals moved lower, but it has gone higher – That is strong!
I was a seller today but I still have a lot.
It was up nicely today, and I still think there will be a better time to enter into Claude in a month or so, but it looks likes it wants to go on a run up from here. If PMs rebound I could see it over $.50 US.
Yep, Claude is still heading up today to $.47 US. What a champ!
It is due for a correction at these levels, but if the PMs get a boost it still could go higher before correcting. I’m not chasing it up at these levels, and will just have to wait for the Spring down-leg in the metals to get back into Claude. I made a good profit, but left a lot on the table on this one. Woops! : -)
Good point Doc,
Glad you are feeling a bit better.
I will be feeling better this evening about 6 p.m. when the “procedure” is over!
Keep it up AL !
About 20 years or so ago I calculated gold should increase in price.
Each time it looked ready to go, somebody dumped gold onto the market.
Finally I gave up on it.
I didn’t know then it was being manipulated. I thought it was profit taking.
In either case it made gold difficult to make money on. For me anyway.
September, is that when the east swift alternative begins, I forget, but something is happening in September. I was just thinking this coincides with the event, shemita and Armstrong.
I don’t know bb but if EVERYONE starts saying September then I would start checking over my shoulder in August just to be on the safe side!
It why I think people will lose money if we don’t consider manipulation. You will think it is free market. You either get out of the sector or lose by trading.
I agree Bird, but there is something significant happening in the east in September, I have just forgotten what it is at the moment.
More replacing the US dollar maybe? The physical trading ready to replace paper maybe?
Wasn’t September when they kicked the can down the road on the US Debt Ceiling issue? That could cause a downgrade in the Dollar and exasperate a marketplace reporting disappointing Q2 numbers, and be the final nail in the coffin that causes the general markets to correct down 20-25%.
There are actually a few things looking like September, Birds right on that, but what I have forgotten (shoulda wrote it down) is something specific, it occurred to me, awhile after I read it. Darn, that’s gonna bug me all day now.
Also, today I got a Richards interview, he has calculated gold only needs to increase to $3000, not the $5k so many people have been dreaming about.
Its a lot more plausible.
David Morgan recently highlighted Sept as his target as well for various reasons.
For me, my target of Sept/Oct is that when the 2nd Quarter numbers have been reported showing the weakness in the multi-national companies, the oil sector, and the banks that financed them. I also believe the interest rate issue being raised in the US will show itself as the farce it will be. By August the concern will finally start registering with the investment community at large, and by September that concern will turn to panic.
How about this:
September 1, 1939 – At 5.30 a.m., Hitler’s armies invaded Poland
September 1, 1983 – Korean Air Lines Flight 007 was shot down by a Russian fighter
September 2, 1666 – The Great Fire of London
September 3, 1939 – Great Britain and France declared war on Nazi Germany
September 5-6, 1972 – Eleven members of the Israeli Olympic Team were killed during an attack on the Olympic Village in Munich
September 7, 1940 – The German Luftwaffe began its Blitz bombing campaign against London during World War II.
September 11, 2001 – The worst terrorist attack in U.S. history occurred as four large passenger jets were hijacked then crashed, killing nearly 3,000 persons.
And on and on….September is a memorable month despite its tragedies.
How about DEC 24….everyone will be home, and The stock ings will be hung and close to the fireplace ,everyone can use the worthless pieces of paper for kindling .
Well if you short the markets in Aug/Sept then by Dec 24th, those stockings could be filled with several currencies, gold, and mining stocks. You can leave Saint Nick a Silver Eagle instead of a cookie.
That doesn’t seem quite fair…If ST NICK, fills the stockings up with gold,,,,,and all you give him is a Silver Eagle,,,…….Oh, I get it ….better to give than to receive……
I’ll throw in a stack of Iraqi Dinar just in case their currency gets re-rated and St. Nick strikes it rich : – )
Armstrong looks reasonable to me 2015.75, not to sure of the shemita or event stuff.
But who knows?
Well if Armstrong says it I feel better. But if Nostradamus was sending the warning I might be building a bunker. Anything in Revelations? 🙂
I am reading Revelation for the second time and I find it to be very interesting!
These markets are crazy – down 300 points one day, up 200 plus points the next… or thereabouts…
Surely this volatility is merely signs of a market unsure of where it is going, nervous traders and the potential to drop like a stone?
Now Bob UK, you are on my side!
I have your back Al. Problem is, I think I am about to surrender 🙂
funny.
Tuesday the Chinese government backed Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) brought forward the launch date of its international gold trading platform which is hosted in the city’s free trade zone (FTZ). The gold trading platform will be known as the ‘international board.’
In a surprise announcement, the SGE said today that the international board will go-live this Thursday September 18, eleven days ahead of its original launch date of Monday Sept. 29.
Forty members of the Exchange including global banks UBS, Goldman Sachs, HSBC and Standard Chartered, will participate in gold trading on the SGE’s international board, trading 11 yuan denominated PHYSICAL gold contracts including the large 12.5 kg (400 oz) bar, the ever popular 1 kg bar and a 100 gram contract
Am I reading this wrong? Are they not intending to trade physical?
This is last year’s news. Shanghai International Board has been running for a few months. The volume is a lot lower than Shanghai exchange itself.
Duh, sorry. Didn’t see that.
So much for it driving gold price up.
As long as US is willing to empty its vault and add as much as derivatives as it can, nothing else other countries can do. China is definitely not there to defeat US. It want to import as much physical as possible. Once physical is drained, the derivative will fall on its face. I know China is not using derivatives at all. It is doing things the traditional way.
That is the main point I get from this too Lawrence. As the East buys up all the physical gold, that the west has leveraged multiple times on paper, they are playing the smart game. At one point when ETFs and physical buyers want to get more gold, it will be socked away in the East and when none is available for investment demand, the spot price will appreciate substantially and the paper investments will have major problems.
The game of physical vs the leverage is that it can come to a sudden death. The seller may not even realize that he is out of gold. Warren Buffett learnt that in a hard way. He was trying to get out his derivative position but it took long time for him to get out it. Loses kept coming back again and again. It is why he said derivative is weapon of mass destruction. He was mad as hell since it was not he expected.
Might have something to do with hsbc closing their vaults.
China Completes SWIFT Alternative, May Launch “De-Dollarization Axis” As Soon As September
Zero hedge aricle
China this, FED that, Greece, bla, bla, bla. Meanwhile I am making nice scalps swing trading gold and loading more oil. 🙂
Hi Gary,
I know you are talking about the stretched cycles in gold, but how long do you see this intermediate cycle in gold lasting until? What is the window for when the next ICL should occur in gold?
Thanks so much!
Gold typically drops around FOMC meetings. Next one is the 19/18th of March but this time around gold could actually bottom on those dates if there is any substantive news on rate changes. Otherwise its another decline that is ahead of us next week and its why I don’t think this current leg down is complete until at least 1130 gold. But that makes a big double bottom too so keep that in mind. Meanwhile the Commercial short position has been halved since start of February and is trending down which tells us they feel gold is getting too oversold on a long term basis. So that is a bullish signal although not very helpful for timing.
Thanks for the comments. For some reason I can see gold hovering range bound in this area for some time..Anyone else feel the same?
I agree that it should at some point challenge 1130 but it may stay here back and forth for another two weeks or so cleaning out longs and shorts. That is my take.
I don’t believe gold is going to test 1130 this time as mentioned earlier in the blog, because I think the Euro/Loonie/Gold/ and oil are about to bounce for a week or two as the dollar corrects. However, it seems extremely likely this Nov low will get tested in the next 2 months looking for the major bottom.
Well Glen, I may have to eat my words because Matthew posted a detailed chart in the other blog today and he also feels tomorrow could be an opportunity to test the 1130 area.
I am open to that playing out, and again, it would be better for gold to test 1130 tomorrow because I believe it would bounce off that Nov low. However, I feel it is more likely we will save the test of 1130 until after a 1-2 week pop in the PMs.
You never know what is going to happen as the last few weeks have been brutal in the pre-market sessions. If gold fell to test 1130 in the pre-market session, then that would be a real wildcard, because it could (A) continue down once the markets open, or (B) bounce up as the markets open. I would feel it would turn out better for Gold if it does test 1130 tomorrow to do it during the normal session, because then I think there would be enough active support that it would bounce making a double or some may say triple bottom.
Tomorrow will be interesting to see what levels are hit.
Just remember though, there still is a small chance that the dollar topped last night when it hit 100 and is already correcting down, and the other currencies and PMs may be starting a small leg up.
Well, the dollar double-topped today with the high at 100.39. I didn’t think gold would go down as much as others, and maintained I felt the 1137-1130 range would be tested but not for a few more weeks in April. It really seems like technically Gold/Silver and the miners want to move higher for the next 2 weeks.
Monday is wildcard where there may be one last move up in the dollar, and down in commodities, but with the dollar hitting just over 100 for two days in a row, this could have been a temporary top for the greenback and temporary bottom in PMs.
Wiseguy,
Maybe around the beginning of April, or if a fourth daily cycle were to form then it could move to the middle of May before a final intermediate cycle low.
***** AS YOU CAN SEE LIKE LAST NIGHT WE ARE GETTING ANOTHER LITTLE POP IN GOLD…………ONLY TO HAVE THE RIGGING BOYS LATER ON COME IN AND HAMMER THE PRICE BACK DOWN…………IF THEY DON’T I WILL BE SHOCKED !!!! *****
This is why just like a bad kid with a toy, you have to take it away !!!
Mark,it is like clock work. If I am a professional I will trade this. I am sure some people get rich by arbitraging this market rigging operation. It is not possible for free market to do this for long.
I feel a Friday smack-down coming.
Gosh – that is now a 3rd vote for a Friday dip. Do you think we’ll test the 1137 or 1130 support levels tomorrow Bob UK?
Hmm, it would be a big smackdown to go to 1130.
1135 possibly but more likely low 1140s. I thought that there would be a smackdown last Friday, and I was proved right, so I am riding my luck to think it will happen two Fridays in a row.
Well, I’ve decided to take a few positions tomorrow regardless, because either the smackdown will be flirting with the Nov lows, or we’ll have an up day confirming the dollar may have topped last night, and that the Euro/Loonie/Aussie Dollar/ and PMs may bounce for a week or two.
Good luck to you sir!
Well we had a slightly up day and the dollar double topped at just over 100. I did take a few positions today, and feel we are due for upleg in the PM miners.
Again, I have felt we would test 1137-1130 again since late January, but I have been consistent that I felt it would be in the late Spring April/May when we go down to possibly 1044. I didn’t really expect a down day in PMs today, but kept the door open to that potential just in case.
Is MA not suggesting gold could rise to around 1208 before dropping into the abyss and hopefully a final low (wish we could just get on with it).
I just started to buy a couple of mining stocks today because they are near their all time time lows. This is a long term investment for me. Just curious as to when you think the mining sector s will be turn around?
Eventually. Listen to the interview on The Weekend Show with the president of PDAC.
By the way@ I am not trying to be cute using the word “eventually”. No one knows, but it should and I am not selling and positions.
Best I can do!
Milassadean……many believe we have a destiny with sub 1000 gold before the PM’s trend can start a long term rise up. MA suggests that the final low will take place between the 3rd quarter, 2015 and 1st quarter 2016.
Thanks you for your reply, opinion and insights.
Very late post here but thought this might be of importance to the audience and our community in here. I’ve long tried not to be a bull nor a bear but to be a realistic person as to approach and also being open minded. I can’t stress enough the importance of keeping a diversified portfolio at this moment. If you for whatever reason want to be strictly in miners, please have a minimum of 4 miners spread out with good management, little debt,cash on hand and credit if needed etc. At this point it is still clear we are in a bear until confirmed out of it. Bounces are ok to trade when you have experience like Bird/Matt etc. Guys like biggus,charters,vortex,skeeta, etc play the downside and have been correct as recent. Others like Matt,myself,shad,peter etc play with what the market give us. Guys like Bird short and cover which is fine by my books. No hidden agenda here. With all that aside, please do not have one or two miner alone in your portfolio, We are at the stage of very high risk of bankruptcy and companies like allied nevada gave notice ahead of time and the writing was there but going forward some companies will pull the rug from under you and it can go really bad. At this point it’s becoming more capital preservation then making money. Try to survive.
Good thoughts Glen. Yes, I also try to stay diversified and will go long on the way up or short on the way down. I follow more than just PMs & miners, but here is my approach.
Typically with Jr Miners, I have about 10 that I feel are good takeover targets or have unique credits like a JV or royalty stream or something that separates them from the pack. Then I also am diversified into the small and mid-tier gold & silver producers, with good cost controls and margins that can survive the low pricing. I use the leveraged ETFs to go long or short the sector. My favorites are the streaming companies, and while I used to own them separately, I have been liking the new Sprott Gold ETF (SGDM), because it has such a strong weighting in the streaming companies and the quality large producers.
In addition I have other commodity plays in oil ETFs, Oil servicing ETFs, base metal companies, uranium stocks, a few quality rare earth & lithium, and some fertilizer & potash companies.
Of course, many of my assets are still in the traditional markets in IRAs and 401K plans, and I have a number of other tech, utilities & financial companies in my trading account for diversification.
The reason I spend so much time with the Jr miners and PMs is for the leverage. Either the leveraged ETFs or the Jr Miners are very risky, but also very rewarding if one is diligent and picks quality companies. A few of my pics for 2014 were bought out and were some of my healthiest gains, and I think there will be even more for this year in 2015 and M&A activity is up.
good luck to all!
Thanks Shad for the response. Great points.
Spent hours and hours last night going through books on all my holdings and getting rid of the weakest links. Out of the list are companies with no transparency as far as phone calls or emails getting back to me on a timely basis. No time for bs. Looking for minimal debt and hoard of cash on hand as I believe doc hit it on the nail with end of month buying. So far it looks as if i was right on the head fake but the day is young. The strong companies will survive and he who get’s good basement prices will give themselves a chance at very good growth years down. Do your homework and scale in when possible.
Smart move Glenfidish. I am sure you are not alone doing that especially on the news ANV went bust. Meanwhile, it is becoming increasingly probable that a stock market correction is coming and despite the already low prices for miners they will still suffer more as equities fall. It is likely that some will be pushed right over the edge so caution is the byword now. Which is another way of saying do not fall for the nonsense the bugs ignorantly repeat about all those ounces in the ground because that’s just a sales gimmick and a come-on. If you checked that Mines-for-Sale site I linked the other day you can readily see there are many hundreds of gold mines representing thousands upon thousands of square kilometers of leases and stakes around the globe that are going unloved and unwanted. Do you think if all those millions of theoretical and implied ounces were so valuable that more than 500 such mines would languish like sad, forlorn, sales signs flapping in the wind? All that matters at a time like this is cash in the bank and company staying power because as the credit bubble finally unwinds the easy money and low rates of today will vanish as dust in the wind. Speculation is all fine and good until the ugly day the market opens no bid your those crappy little Juniors with nothing but debt and a slim hope of survival that are soon going to meet their own D-Day.
Thanks for the comments bird. As you mentioned yesterday or day before, a bounce should come but im not certain as yet. I still think we need to test the 1130 low and then a good cat bounce. Then back down i suppose.
Check the Armstrong article of today, Glen. His system says the reversal for gold is just a mere 18 dollars lower that the current 1152 and the bear is presumably dead then. It will be an amazing call if he has got this one right.
Bull Markets are Defined By Currency Flows
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/13/bull-markets-are-defined-by-currency-flows/
Glen, I don’t think Marty is saying the bear can end here. He said: “So the collapse to our targets may indeed wait until the timing on the Benchmarks has coming into play …”
You can see his time frame here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=M&yr=11&mn=11&dy=22&id=p61904716805&a=376642762&listNum=1
Thanks Matt..
Bird,
So even if we get a bounce he is still projecting lower lows down the road. Is this correct or am i miss reading?
Thanks for your comments!
I cannot speak for him Glen, these are his calls and I never saw the report that he produced. So basically I have no idea about Marty’s views other than what he wrote publicly but from my perspective gold looks almost ready for another dip down.
Also Bird may I add that i still see us range bound here for another week or two before testing that bottom. I may be completely wrong but i think its choppy for miners and getting people out and in. If we finish down today Bird, I believe we gap down on Monday on miners. It may be the bottom before the rally bit at this point one should look to position themselves now and soon.
Waiting for the FOMC….gold usually takes a dive that day. The charts show we have support around 1149 / 1150 for now but after touching down 4 times it looks tenuous and another drop if forthcoming.
Well that is true that gold usually takes it in the backside on the FOMC meetings. Maybe we need to get through the lows that day before a reversal for a couple weeks.
Great interview guys. A very level-headed macro overview.