Avi’s thoughts on the conventional markets.
Hey guys. Not sure if you can post this for me, or if we can discuss this in our next interview, but I saw the posts about Stockman and those at Zerohedge regarding how bad the “debt crisis” is and that it is hard to be bullish this market. Unfortunately, this type of thinking has kept people from enjoying the profits of one of the best bull market price action we have seen in decades.
Ultimately, one must understand the difference between “imminent” and “eventual.” Are we going to have a sovereign debt crisis? ABSOLUTELY. Is it going to happen tomorrow?? ABSOLUTELY NOT. Will we get early warning signs before it happens? ABSOLUTELY. Will the stock market drop by 1000 points overnight and gold go up by $1000 overnight? ABSOLUTELY NOT!!! This type of fear mongering has been pushed by too many analysts out there, and it has done such a huge disservice to the investing public at large.
Personally, I was appropriately bearish back in 2011, but when the market started to show signs that it had no interest in anything more than a correction, I had to turn bullish, and began looking for new all-time market highs. When I turned bearish at the end of 2013, the market again showed me that it was going to continue in a much longer term bullish move. I then became bullish in the mid 1800 region and have not looked back since. Of course, I am going to be looking for a 20-30% correction to begin over the next 12 months . . . I am not blind to the potential. But, until the market shows signs that this larger degree rally is completing, I am not willing to grab my ankles and assume a fetal position.
People need to get out of thinking that the market is going to collapse any day now. They need to apply a level headed approach to the market, and not take any uber-bull or uber-bear perspective seriously. Like everything else in life, there is no black and white . . .. it is all grey. They need to learn how to survive in the grey matter within the investing world, or else they lose a lot of opportunity.
Avi Gilburt, Esq.
I’ll second that.
Avi had some interesting thoughts on the Russell 2000 on the weekend show, and I have been watching that carefully as well, because it does look poised to take off. If it goes through a huge parabolic move over the next 2-3 months, then I would short it at that point.
For now I am going to watch the markets position for their blow off phase; whether it makes sense fundamentally or not. The only reason that makes sense is that the money printing only led to inflation in the stock markets because that is where financial institutions are making a killing, borrowing at 0% and juicing the markets. Why fight it (………yet)?
Any goood Russell 2000 etfs?
If people could stay away from the markets when they are manipulated by governments or institutions perhaps they would either, stop doing it, or get tired of doing it to each other and getting nowhere.
Then we have to stop in all markets and wait for FED and other central banks to dilute our money to nothing. They have a great track record of adding water to the mix.
I dunno….there were sure many market advisers/timers back in 2007 who thought they too would get out at or near the top who got whacked.
Thanks for the rational perspective. I only wish I had seen this advice 3 years ago when fear mongering gold bug sites sucked me into their doomsday scenarios. Never too late they say!
All the best to you sir.