Gary, Doc, Al and Cory weigh in on the Fed statement
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
DrLawrewnce Kotikoff gives a great interview on USAWatchdog.com, explains Government debt,liabilities and social security.
Partly pushing anew book on socialsecurity, but worth the time to listen. Really.
Al……..you need to buy GM stock before they go bankrupt again.
Tragic comedy at its best.
P.S. – I agree with you Doc that the dip in the dollar won’t be for too long (2 weeks?)
Something tells me the dollar will have a blow off top in a month or two and may get to 110 before it does an intermediate cycle top, so last weeks double-top from overnight trading Wed night to Fridays high of 100.39 is probably just the daily cycle top in the dollar.
On a day when oil drops in price there were a significant number of diverse oil stocks that went up in price….e.g.: PBR, TSO, PWT.TO……Can someone explain this action?
Yes, we hit the bottom of the commodity index charts and the dollar started falling. What you are seeing is the strategic players move their capital ahead of the herd and buying up oil stocks even as oil is still in decline. It’s a perfect setup. I think the window of opportunity could be less than two weeks at most before oil heads higher and the game changes.
RUSSIA IS DUMPING THE DOLLAR……………zerohedge today
Because it topped. That’s all. Very simple. Sell at the top.
Not so sure that the dollar has TOPPED as you are saying………ACCORDING TO RICK, on today’s (Thursday) post, Rick thinks the DOLLAR IS GOING HIGHER………………….J
You need to go and read the article……
I respect Rick’s calls but I disagree with him this time.
Looks like the Fed are hedging their bets- in a way that seems doveish (especially given the significant decline in forecast for the end of year Fed Funds Rate and CPI (let’s ignore the unemployment rate, as only the blind would consider it remotely accurate). I suspect a likely path is bounce in gold and stocks (probably oil too – though supply build is a real issue), with a reverse in summer as economic data rebounds weakly, leading to all hell breaking loose in Sept/Oct when the Fed feels it has to hike rates. Wild cards are Greece, Ukraine and further supply driven collapse in oil prices.
All hell breaking loose is a relative thing. One man’s ceiling is another man’s floor.
Transparency has never been a goal of the Fed. Misdirection is what it’s really about.
For those who still think the president is in charge, think again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8fxk3bBTi4
“Since I entered politics, I have chiefly had men’s views confided to me privately. Some of the biggest men in the U.S., in the field of commerce and manufacturing, are afraid of somebody, are afraid of something. They know that there is a power somewhere so organized, so subtle, so watchful, so interlocked, so complete, so pervasive, that they had better not speak above their breath when they speak in condemnation of it.”
—Woodrow Wilson
Great post , Matthew!
Matthew…SPOT ON!……
Agreed my good man Matthew. Misdirection is their specialty.
There is fear in that quote. Makes me think that the Pres. has to be the best actor in the land of Hollywood.
It’s true, Washington is Hollywood for ugly people…
Precisely Dan.
Nothing has changed. The Greater Fool still insists rates will rise this year – about half a point.
quoting:
“Cool. It’s over. First the massive ($85 billion a month) bond-snorfling program was ended last autumn. And this year emergency interest rates will be lifted. This is a fundamental shift in monetary policy that I hope nobody misses. The Fed is shucking its job of trying to rescue the economy by giving away money, and re-establishing its role as a referee. It will continue to slowly increase rates as wages, prices and economic activity rises in order to contain inflation, and it will rest when job creation needs a lift or the dollar must be reigned in. But gone for now is the super-bank mandate. No cape. No tights. No buns of steel.
“For Canadians, there’s no resisting. The Bank of Canada will follow suit as it always has. It may not be before the end of the year, but it’s coming. To fail to act would be to sacrifice the dollar, import inflation, and raise the misery index. It would also fuel more consumer debt, and since we’ve all proven we can no longer be trusted with money, this is a giant risk to the future.”
Great commentary, Irwin. That guy you quoted gets it.
Expecting a denouement in the copper price truncated bull market. Could take a year or more to complete the bear market:
Greenspan on gold:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oz4-Tru_30A
New gold highs after hours (8:32 pm)@ $1175
if it holds in London…….then we might have some good news
Well, I see the LONDON FIXER AT WORK………the Fedsters are not going to let this get away from them………same ole, same ole………………………………………………j
Guess what, nobody has a clue anymore as far as the economy, The Fed or financial matters are concerned, like Bob M say’s were all playing slots waiting for the shot that will be heard around the world. DT
Bird will tell you he has it all figured out and he can tweet his little tune, but we are all riding on the ship of fools.
Yes, crazy on a ship of fools…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1Cj7fBlACs
I had not heard this. Thanks.
Robert Plant is one of the COOLEST old guy rockers today, in my opinion
He seems to have a thing for retro sounds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BoUzzFXuVU
SPOT ON!!…..DT, Birdman is just going to bed until the Titanic revs ups it engines and heads to New York…..oooops!
I think the Titanic already sank. Long ago. Then James Cameron found it. End of story.
Bird knows it sank………he was on the last raft………the one who kicked off the poor widow with the cane………………………..h,h……….j………e e………..
No man, I was not there. But I can channel their thoughts afterwards.
Well that is a strange comment DT. Kind of out of place here but I will respond to it anyway with a couple comments. First, just because YOU don’t know what’s going on does not mean everyone else is in the dark.
Second, I don’t claim to have everything figured out but I will tell you with some confidence that we have just arrived at a major inflection point in the market and now have the opportunity to reorganize portfolios and get with the new trend.
We are about to embark on a falling dollar trend and that assures us that rate hikes are coming. At this time we are also bottoming in a number of major commodities so it calls for a nimble approach in reallocating from one class of assets and into another.
Lets keep in mind that a rising Euro (falling dollar) is going to be very positive for oil and oil stocks beginning in the next weeks so that is a trade I would look at closely. There is also the possibility that a major final bottom in resources warns us that (you will not believe this) inflation could start to finally rise.
If the dollar declines with any conviction and that trend carries on for as long as a year during which the ECB gets European banks all hot and liquid then we will see an end to the current deflation worries and a significant shift towards concerns that rising resource prices will infuse the economy with an inflationary bias.
The basic idea here is that Europe will break out of a deep funk with ECB supports and the US economy will not soften too much.
That’s what I mean when I say this is an inflection point. It is a major directional change for markets and it coincides with Spring time 2015 and the Equinox that arrives on the 20th. It is a time for renewal. The symbolism cannot be overlooked.
Lets be very clear about something here though. If the dollar has just begun a trend into a decline then by definition that means commodities including gold and silver will catch a bid. And this incidentally is already the bottom floor for commodities as will be made very clear to you by examining the CRB or the Goldman commodity indexes.
I think this is rotation time (stop thinking dirty pal!). And therefore its time to get positive on the beaten down resources no matter how negative we currently feel about some of them.
Meanwhile, think about every single trade that will now be impacted for better or for worse if the dollar indeed goes South for up to a year and reconsider its value. I think that not grasping the significance of yesterdays trading change is going to be a mistake for those who take months to learn something big just happened.
As far as I am concerned rate hikes are now GUARANTEED. There is already talk that September is in the cards but I would not be so presumptive that the Fed will delay that long. A lot will depend on how certain they feel that the dollar decline will continue and what confidence there is that US equity markets don’t blow up on us.
All I am saying DT is to keep an open mind. The dance cards just got mixed up so find a new partner.
The DOLLAR will indeed continue to DECLINE…….to it true VALUE……ZERO, no not zero what is the value of tissue paper, therefore , it will be equal to the value one places on tissue paper nothing more…………………………………….j
You must have missed the message……RUSSIA DROPs THE DOLLAR……..zerohedge.
My gold (NUGT) and my Russian (RUSL) just took off. I might be taking profits on Russia tomorrow.
Jason
You seem to catch some nice trends with a select group of tickers.
Nice buy-in point on NUGT this morning, however I did a buy/sell with JNUG today for a +15% in one day (decided to buy hours before the 2:00 FOMC)
Brian
Good positions to be in today Jason. Well done!
LOL,LOL,…………THIS IS THE BIGGEST GAME EVER…………..THE COUNTRY IS IN TROUBLE, AND THAT LITTLE ELF JANET YELLEN KNOWS IT……..LOL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WORDS……WORDS……WORDS….THAT’S ALL THEY HAVE LEFT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL !!!
The Fed wants the equities markets higher. They’ve wanted that since 2009 and will continue to want that for some time. “Don’t fight the Fed” and “the trend is your friend”. There will be a pull-back soon, but it will be a buying opp.
Yeah, and US has China and Russia and Turkey and Brazil and…….lalalala, etc by the proverbial “balls”. Sure Mike the Fed will rule for years to come….no my friend…wrong very wrong…..:)
The Fed wants the equity markets higher to trick the sheeple into believing all is well…lol…………
Al (et al)
I feel I have to whine/complain a bit – although I actually have no right, as this site is all free, but ….
For a site that is so immersed in GOLD&SILVER, I really feel that this post-FOMC segment was astonishingly light on THE MAJOR QUESTION: “What does this mean for gold and silver?
Could you do a major segment this weekend?
And did anyone think the “Al, et al” was clever? 😉
Brian
Very clever; Cory must be ET? 😮
Yep “Al, et al” was clever Brian.
I always want to hear more on Gold & Silver, because there are tons of media outlets covering the conventional markets and currencies, however, it is difficult to discuss anything in isolation. The currencies markets effect everything, and then the bond markets, and equities, and commodities, and the energy space are key as well. I like the holistic approach, as it is an intertwined web we weave.
Spot on Shad. The biggest mistake the gold-bugs (sorry Brian) make is they always want to talk about gold in isolation and get easy answers. That’s just nuts. There is nothing simple about markets and you are going to make a lot of mistakes if you don’t think in terms of the larger picture and every major class of assets like it is an interconnected web. I just don’t know how anybody can be in this trade without looking at currencies daily.
Absolutely – It is like the Mycelium network in the fungal world connecting communities for miles, always seeking to achieve balance in the ebb and flow of nature. If one area is affected then all areas are effected.
Gary, quit sniffling.
The economy didn’t look that bad, Vegas or otherwise, before last collapse.
Sure it did. The real estate market was imploding and commodities were soaring.
The exact opposite is happening now. That means central banks are free to print, print, print and keep everything propped up.
This will end just like the last one did. The Fed will create a bubble and it will pop. At least have the patience to wait for the bubble.
“At least have the patience to wait for the bubble.”
The story of my (investment) life …
Good point on the real estate market in Vegas during the 2007-2009 time frame. I remember some friends that were making a killing in Vegas real estate from 2002-2007 and then they went all in and lost most of their gains in the fallout and crash in real estate out there. That was a real wild window of time.
Earnings at peak when it all came down. I’ma waiting. No two collapses are the same, so wouldn’t expect housing to precede this time, necessarily. Not the subprime mess. It’s all about da printing now, yes…and a fools game betting on the big turn. Short trades…like metals here. There will be a lucky few that get in on the big turn.
PETER SCHIFF WAS RIGHT, PETER SCHIFF WAS RIGHT………………..NO…………….PETER SCHIFF………….IS…………RIGHT !!!!!!!!!!
Markets are nuts…..all this action comes on a few words from Yellen. Is it a sign? Following the words of the FED is like following these guys.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ka9mfZbTFbk
So gold up, oil up, USD down, stocks up….bad news is good???
I feel like the lunatics are running the asylum. Oh well, I will take what I can get….my portfolio is up for a change. Tomorrow, I have no idea.
THE WORD UNLIKELY MEANS………NOT LIKELY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Fed balance sheet has doubled since 2011 and yet the Fed and his minions have taken gold down 50%.
Fed linen dilution of 100% in just four years.
Fed destruction of POG by 50% in the same time frame.
THE FED IS NOTHING BUT A CIRCLE OF WORDS AT THIS POINT………………..THEY DON’T KNOW WHAT TO DO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! PERIOD !!!!!!!!!!!!!
What was that all about – USD down and everything else up? Surely that was just the HFT machines responding?
There is a key Bob…..but I can’t tell you what it is.
No more muffins for you then 😉
What Muffins? You mean there was Muffins and I didn’t get any? Shoot. I always miss out on the free food!
No man did more to expose the power of the FED than Louis T. McFadden, who was the Chairman of the House Banking Committee back in the 1930s. In describing the FED, he remarked in the Congressional Record, House pages 1295 and 1296 on June 10, 1932:
“Mr. Chairman, we have in this country one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever known. I refer to the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal reserve banks. The Federal Reserve Board, a Government Board, has cheated the Government of the United States and he people of the United States out of enough money to pay the national debt. The depredations and the iniquities of the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal reserve banks acting together have cost this country enough money to pay the national debt several times over. This evil institution has impoverished and ruined the people of the United States; has bankrupted itself, and has practically bankrupted our Government. It has done this through the maladministration of that law by which the Federal Reserve Board, and through the corrupt practices of the moneyed vultures who control it”.
+1
Few know about McFadden and his efforts. Or Congressman Lindbergh and his:
Articles of Impeachment Against Federal Reserve
This Act establishes the most gigantic trust on earth. When the President signs this Act the invisible government by the Money Power, proven to exist by the Money Trust Investigation, will be legalized. The new law will create inflation whenever the trusts want inflation. From now on depressions will be scientifically created.” – Congressman Charles A. Lindbergh, Sr., 1913, on the Federal Reserve Act Charles Lindbergh Sr. – Congressional record – Feb 12, 1917
Here’s another from Lindbergh:
“This is the strangest, most dangerous advantage ever placed in the hands of a special privilege class by any Government that ever existed. The system is private, conducted for the sole purpose of obtaining the greatest possible profits from the use of other people’s money. They know in advance when to create panics to their advantage, They also know when to stop panic. Inflation and deflation work equally well for them when they control finance.”
And another:
“This Act establishes the most gigantic trust on Earth. When the President signs this bill, the invisible government by the Monetary Power will be legalized, the people may not know it immediately but the day of reckoning is only a few years removed…. The worst legislative crime of the ages is perpetrated by this banking bill.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_August_Lindbergh
great post………..Matt and Matthew………
uK budget takes 95% of savers out of paying income tax on savings .
Drop tax on beer, cider and wine and liquor…..only by a couple of percent, but every little helps!
Announces UK WILL BE the first non-founder nation to join the Asian banking payments transfer system.
Don’t be fooled by those dingbat pundits who claim the Euro just gave back most of its gains since yesterday and therefore we are back to square one. What we are seeing is a typical retracement and represents a buying opportunity. At most we get a double bottom on the Euro but I have certainty the Euro will now rise for many months. This is a game changer for commodities and especially crude which shall benefit. It also tells us something of inflation rising in the the US. So pay attention and don’t get distracted by fools.
Bird………ARE you now saying you think we are going to have INFLATION…….
Inflation is implicit with the advent of rate increases. Rates WILL rise. It is in the cards because the Fed has no other ammunition once we turn down so they really have no choice. Do not be mistaken Jerry. Inflation is a certainty off a commodities bottom for two fundamental reasons. First is that speculators will bid up prices and secondly that a rotation will occur amongst asset classes. We are not ready for the “Bang” moment that Reinhart and Rogoff speak of but in the meantime we should not forget the fundamentals. I have no idea if the shift in capital will come from a falling stock market or flight out of bonds but I can be sure that resources are soon to catch a bid. Maybe a fear trade…maybe just speculative and strategic buying. Smarter people than me will have better answers. Meanwhile this is a matter of watching and waiting to see what happens next.
In other words , all the above mumbo jumbo………..what is your answer….yes or no.
Yes Jerry, we will have inflation.
Good we agree…………
Just keep in mind though that the kind of inflation we get will drive down asset values, not raise them. Your house price will fall but your rents will increase.
I will take the general statement as an attempt to make a point…….thanks j.
Bird,
“Your house price will fall but your rents will increase”
That means an increase in yield. DO you think that goes with an increase in interest rates too and possibly a bear market in bonds? Even Treasuries? DO you think we will ever get to the historic valuation lows on stocks with P/E going to 7 as has happened before?
Al, you are a stoic fellow, reading the Fed’s release three times!
That is three times more than the average person!
Accumulation and distribution nearly
always determines market direction.