“The markets are sitting on a powder keg”
A mini roundtable with Doc and Chris. We start off by talking about the conventional markets then go down the road of a liquidity trap. The overall question remains… Is a market collapse imminent?
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
NO COLLAPSE ! ONLY ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6vi528gseA
Yep the US can always print more money Greenspan.
Here is an interesting Uranium Article that highlights Ur-Energy, Uranium Energy Corp, and Uranerz merging with Energy Fuels. All 3 waiting on prices to rebound.
http://uraniuminvestingnews.com/21053/united-states-uranium-producers-ur-energy-fuels.html
Here is another good article on Uranium that has the top 5 most looked at articles over the last 3 months encapsulated within the article.
Chris Temple – See the chart below that highlights Kivalliq as the highest grade resource not yet controlled by a Uranium major producer:
http://uraniuminvestingnews.com/files/2011/02/Kivalliq-Energy-Comparables.jpg
It looks like old data but I imagine the grade hasn’t gone down since then 🙂
Good find, Shad – saw something similar to this in the past. I’ll find out how dated (or not) this is.
Chris Temple. There is a similar slide on (page 20) of the Kivalliq Feb 2015 Corporate Presentation.
I was told earlier today that slide is already dated…but generally speaking, KIV is still looking better than most on this metric. I think it’s Fission that now beats them on that overall grade, but don’t hold me to that.
Yes, that is true that Fission has had some industry attention for the high grade drill results that they have been hitting on their Patterson Lake project in the Athabasca Basin. As you mentioned though, Kivalliq is still one of the highest grade deposits out there.
It also looks like Cameco just put in a triple bottom from the end of January to the end of March, and is basing for an upturn. Since Cameco is he market leader (along with Areva that looks like it has gone lower than anyone could have imagined), this seems like the bell is ringing that Uranium stocks are bottoming.
It appears that the Uranium spot price for the commodity already bottomed the end of last year, but now the stocks are bottoming.
I added to my positions in Uranerz and Ur-Energy today as they took a dip, and I think we are at the point where they should both have a nice leg up from here.
@ Shad [& all other radiation freaks 🙂 ]
Shad, early am insomnia had me reading the Globe&Mail about 5 hrs ago.
I’m just starting to read yesterday’s KERep’s & w. the above thread, thought this may be of interest to you.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/indian-pm-modi-eyes-uranium-deal-with-canada/article23874581/
— LFP
Very interesting article about the partnership between Cameco and Canada and the Indian plans to boost nuclear power as part of their mix.
This is part of the real supply demand fundamentals where Indian, China, the Middle East, and South Asian are growing supply in a major way, and it will eclipse the importance of Japans restarts. Japan is a big customer, but even if Japan and Germany (who is not a primary customer) never came back to the marketplace, there are huge projects and plants starting, in development and planned.
The primary Nuclear players are the US, France, Russia, S. Korea, and China will be a beast once all its plans are done. India, though, is really stepping into nuclear power as a clean alternative to their consumption needs.
Thanks for posting it LFP.
Zero probability of default. But what will that money be worth?
Big Al. We discuss what the fiat money will be worth down below in the toilet paper section of the thread.
RE: liquidity in fixed income, there’s an article today on Zerohedge quoting JPM’s J. Dimon:
GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
Nobody will be able to say they were never warned, LPG…now if only we had a crystal ball to know when these events will happen!
Hello Chris,
I think last year’s mid-Oct intraday move in the US Treasury market was a good warning shot ! 🙂
We’ll see about the timing of the next, and maybe more “proper” ba-da-biiiiiiiing moment ! 🙂
Best to you as always,
LPG
Yes LPG – Keep us abreast of the proper Ba-da-biiiiiing moment would ya!
Good analogy Chris, boxing is just like the markets it’s fixed! DT
There are a lot of predictions on how long the markets will last but frankly I haven’t seen the final euphoric phase that I expect will happen before the panic and crash.
Agreed DT. We haven’t had the blow off top yet in the general markets.
The euphoric phase is in China and Hong Kong seemingly
The rise of the dragon in the East.
When DO YOU KNOW….a powder keg is a “POWDER KEG”……cmon sillies…….when IT BLOWS!!!!…two things happen then:
1. It is too LATE to make corrective or mitigated actions
2. YOU WILL HEAR ENDLESS BELLY ACHING ABOUT: “I DIDNT SEE IT COMING!”…:(
End of story!
Cmon SD, everyone knows when there is a break it is a good time to buy. Be bullish on America, General Motors can’t go broke for the second time! DAR SHE BLOWS MATEY! LOL!
I quote
Many economists think potential rate hikes are a result of the Fed responding to “strong US growth”. There’s no question that the US is in an upcycle, but productivity is at 1930s levels in the private sector, and much lower in the huge government sector. It’s important to understand the difference between economic recovery, and a simple upcycle. The US is experiencing the latter.
Some analysts think rates will rise simply because the Fed needs the ability to cut rates in the next down turn.
I think both of these rate hike views are 100% wrong. Janet Yellen is not a hawk. She’s a dove, and doves seek higher inflation. The only sure way to create higher inflation is to increase the velocity of the money supply.
That velocity can only be achieved, realistically, through an increase in bank loan activity. Bank loans will only increase if the banks can make large profits from them. The bottom line: Rate hikes are coming, but the main purpose of them is to increase money supply velocity. s thomson
Thanks Agatha! I agree with that commentary. Where did you find it if I may ask? Can you post the link to the whole article. S.Thompson is now amongst the very few who seem to understand what is coming and why.
There is no direction in the markets so I sold everything yesterday but kept a big position in XOP as that is easier to trade using the oil price.
I agree – these indexes could shoot up or crash down easily. There is no direction.
Oil looked strong but faded away so I took some large profits in XOP which I should have done 2 days ago but the TD bank software was not working as it would not recognize any stock symbols. I gave up about 25% of the gains.
Claude Resources has been acting very well, as I warned it might. Despite being in a corrective mode for the last ten days or so, it continues to drift higher along with its channel resistance.
If gold cooperates, it may be much higher before it really corrects.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CLGRF&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p75999457265&a=397042274&listNum=1
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CLGRF&p=W&yr=2&mn=11&dy=0&id=p18018390770&a=396899698
To be clear, I am NOT a buyer here.
Of course…because gold will probably not cooperate.
Here’s another example of how Claude is getting it done and still breaking records.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/claude-sets-quarterly-gold-production-120000723.html
Yup, I’m glad I kept 37% of my original position.
I am sad I sold too early. It was a healthy profit, but I really thought Claude would correct down last month when gold prices went south. Claude has been very resilient, which means the market is finally taking notice of their achievements.
If we get any reasonable pullback in it’s share price, then I am ready to go build my position back.
I will buy back some of what I sold too, if I get the right setup.
What??? Where is “Birdman” as your second name?
Are we divorced already? The nuptials are still lukewarm.
Thanks, I post from different devices and browsers. Now this one’s good too.
So we are married again?
Hey……wait a second…..aren’t you supposed to be ignoring me like all married couples do?
Birdman, I guess you don’t have much money or you would be feeling the sting from divorce court.
What??? I am divorced again?….this is the worse married life ever.
Shad, the dynamic with Claude right now unlike virtually everyone else is that analyst coverage and larger funds are taking a renewed interest at a healthy clip. It almost doesn’t matter what gold does, short of an all-out crash below last Fall’s lows.
Better to have you money tied up in appreciating assets, than setting in the bank , where the teller can move it over to her side of the drawer, and take it home for the weekend, and forget to bring it back.
That is exactly why I just sold everything to go all in on Beanie Babies and Furbies.
No scratch that, that comment was from the 1990s.
Now I feel very safe in Bitcoin……
No scratch that, that comment was from 2 years ago.
I guess I’ll stick with ole relic Gold, Silver, Palladium, Uranium, Oil, Fertilizers, and energy companies.
Good one Shad……good one!! HAHA!
🙂
do not forget pokie and gumby
Yeah I was torn between ordering a crate of Gumby/Pokie dolls or PEZ dispensers…..
Hmmmmm what to do? Is there Gumby ETF yet to help a guy out?
I would go for the PEZ, if they have the candy still inside the package, that way you will have something to eat , just in case they take longer to appreciate.
Plus you can always donate it to the hungry kids, and get a tax write off……..
Yeah….that is sound reasoning J….the Long. Then I can turn it into a Non-Profit PEZ foodbank to help starving children, and get the tax breaks.
Now I think you are getting the hang of it…….this investing is not such hard business, when you have govt backing.
I’m thinking why even work…..there is Unemployment and Welfare policies in place that pay nicely from the government teet. Then they can take my statistic out of the job market numbers as well because I won’t be looking any longer.
Depend on your age……..eventually the jig will be up , and you do not want of be a statistic in the wrong category ……DUA …..dead upon arrival.
J……the
Where exactly are you putting 7 figures so you can sleep for the next 10 years?
J…. the Long invested most of the 7 figures in Whiskey & Bourbon. Don’t let him tell you otherwise 🙂
Yeah….but it is hard to store it for the long term…..for multiple reasons…… 🙂
lol..Shad I think the u.s dollar is on some of it today..
Yes the dollar is getting high and mighty today.
must be the weed taking over………
Ahhh It’s probably just from Greece blowing smoke.
Whiskey and Weed……….problem…. the revenue agents like to tax the heck out of those because they can.
Yes but in an all out collapse of the system, these items would be in high demand.
along with batteries, toilet paper, and condoms.
shad put toilet paper first as im not the kind to go find tea leaves in the backyard 🙂
Yes Glenfidish, but how are people going to power their Ipods and Phones to jam out while they poop.
I saw a new word in the Urban Dictionary the other day that caused me to lose faith in humanity.
Twooping = The art of Tweeting while Pooping via any mobile device while in the bathroom.
……. hence the batteries or some way to charge electronics if everything goes to hell in a hand-basket.
plus you can always bribe the revenue agents with the paper………you can just write IOU on the Toilet paper and mail it in……..
J….the Long. I have plenty of Fiat currency that won’t be as valuable as the toilet paper that I plan to use for that. Cash is trash.
You just need enough cash to trade with the next sucker.
Shad/J way to funny with iou’s and pooping and twooping hahaha..
It’s comic relief day! To much stress in the world not take a moment and laugh it out.
TWEETY’S DAY OFF.
OOPS didn’t mean to say that…………..
Bill…..
Real estate , gold(only because it is cash and will be accepted anywhere) Art.
Some dividend paying stocks……….no bonds.
Jerry -Ditto – dont forget SILVER – it WILL BE the best investment before this decade is out in terms of purchasing power – as you know, I am Real Estate guy….silver…is such a no-brainer!
SD……..I us to be totally a real estate guy
us to use
BTW, and I KNOW, I know… Dan Amenduri at Future Money Trends is pushing it right now..but CHECK OUT…Keith Neumeyer’s NEW brain-child (First Majestic fame)…FIRST MINING CORPORATION – “A mineral BANK”… They have 18 project right now and are looking to acquire more. Their specialty: Going around the world acquiring distressed mineral assets in the ground..gold, silver, nickel, zinc, palladium, etc…..economically feasible assets in the ground that the companies couldnt hang on any longer.Great idea…with tremendous long term potential. Rick Rule and Sprott are in too. FF – tsxv…got a stink bid for shares through Sprott Global. Exciting idea. We will see
One thing about DISTRESSED properties……they got distressed because of a reason.
Good intel on First Mining Corp SD Marc. I had not hear that, but it sounds like an interesting business model to scoop up the good resources.
SD Marc, I may be looking under the wrong name but I couldn’t find a listing for “First Mining Corp”. Is it a private company, or has it not officially launched yet?
I also am a major believer in Silver. Check out FMG. big silver on the surface. A lot of volume lately and CEO has a couple deals on the table to choose from.
Nevermind. There is just not a US equivalent for First Mining Corp but I found the press release from a few days where First Majestic is acquiring shares in First Mining Corp.
Here is the link for anyone interested:
remember you said 10 years….
No……from now to 2020…just as a set time period..because people have to have some time frame to hang onto…..now remember…it could be stagnant(silver) for a while longer than just take off…I am not giving trajectory specifics just the general direction is UUUUUUUPPPPPPPP….and away…beats losing money overnight in the stock market someday thinking you were Mr. Smarty Pants….:)
my 10 yrs was to Bill
Yes, I know..the guys that were funding them simply ran out of money…..like we all say opportunity lies mostly with the guys with the “deepest pockets”. Or it takes money to make money……….I trust Neumeyer..he is a DOUBLE BILLION DOLLAR Company builder….he had-slips my feeble mind – before First Majestic…so pretty successful..:)
I was just joking with you…….I do think you have a good suggestion on First Mining……..j
Correction: First Mining Finance
Thanks again…………..j
I posted the press release up above on First Majestic acquiring shares in First Mining Finance Corp. if interested.
A wise plan OOTB.
I might have added a business. But govt for small to med. size businesses is now a pain in the rear. It was bad enough before, now I give pause everytime I think of starting a new business.
You could become a hard-money lender to people in real estate and business, without doing the business yourself. Then you can make 10-20% interest and carry a baseball bat.
Never loan to losers ……..
Agreed. That bat is just to ensure you come out the winner.
Make sure the bat is not a collectable……………
Yeah….just don’t use a Reggie Jackson model. Check out 1:30 into this clip!!
Latest from McClellan, focusing on OIL.
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/crude_oil_cot_report_data/
Best to all,
LPG
Interesting article on Oil and Net short positions LPG. Thanks for posting it.
Most welcome Shad.
Best to you,
LPG
OIL………Saudi Arabia is getting ready to PUMP UP PRODUCTION…….zerohedge today
Chris…..there will be a default ………guarantee it………..when who knows, just human nature. Man is stupid, and man errors and is doomed. Just the way it is.
Agreed…. Just look at who we elect to represent our interests in government.
Shad……….WE do not elect anyone….they tell us who they want to screw us.
Yep……it’s a screwy system.
Unfortunately, Jerry…YEP!!…:(
If greece defaults cds will not count because the default will be voluntary.It is a clause in the bond’s disclosure.
There are many ways in which regulators will allow banks to “legally” lie in order to not have to reveal the true state of their affairs. That’s why — though a financial crash could come at any moment, and eventually will — one can’t live day to day as if it is imminent. These Shylocks can keep their game going a LONG time…already have.
It’s why I don’t spend much time on all the talk of gold short squeezes, nobody being able to obtain physical in a crunch, and all that. I know people have pointed out how many zillion times actual gold is pledged, hedged, hypothicated and prevaricated. What asset ISN’T? All that happens if someone can’t deliver is that the exchange allows for “settlement in kind” — i.e. – cash, not gold. Period. As A. Bunker would say, “case closed.”
mux taking a beating on the news of robbery in mexico.
I saw that, but Rob reconfirmed that they’ll hit their guidance numbers for the year. Mexico is getting a bit hectic with the various kidnappings, violence, and new tax increases. They have a great deal of the worlds PMs and base metals though.
I like MUX and have high hopes for Rob McEwen and his team moving forward.
Instead of trying to occupy/control the Middle East, the neocons should meddle in Mexico if they have to conquer SOMEBODY…clean up that country, make it safer for all the vast resources to be developed, eradicate the drug trade. No, wait…that last one isn’t part of their program, is it?
Agreed. Much closer to home, the people make actually appreciate some help, and no the CIA depends on that illegal drug trade for kickbacks.
I do have hopes that one day Mexico will develop into the great country it has the potential to be. The people I met on my brief travels seemed very happy overall, but conditions are rough, and in those environments corruption rears its head.
Lawrence have not seen you around lately, hope all is well with you 🙂
Also anyone in here know much about jade? I want to get a special his and hers bracelet of jade but im told they come in many different grades/quality with or without certificate and all price ranges lol..That does not help. What I hope one of you can answer is which color or which is best for bang for the buck..Im always looking for a deal..
Thanks in advance 🙂
just look your question up on the internet……
Yeah that internet is pretty smart……
see in twenty min you can know everything you need to know……right bird…
Actually I do know. Just so happens I have some expertise in the area of semi precious stones. Unlike you of course….. Realtors know pretty much nothing about nothing except how to get a commission how to bullsh*t the uninitiated.
I wish I knew how brokers live with themselves. It is just prostitution.
No realtors who enter the market early and make a ton of money can buy and sell loud mouths like you………….Got a ROLEX PRESIDENT
What is interesting to me and one of the things I have learned on this site is just how ignorant and uninformed most people are. You happen to be a Gem of an example with your cute little daily comments and as much depth as a goldfish pond.
Jesus Jerry….”Realtor” is not a real occupation. It is the refuge of losers with silver tongues and no conscience.
I might have to agree with you on the REALTOR part , since I am not a REALTOR.
I JUST happen to sell that business about 25 years ago.
You are off the hook.
The problem with you bird……..it take you 20 min. to come up with an answer .,with the help of the internet
You are so stupid , you think people believe the dribble you spit out…, why don’t you call on your imaginary buddies MIDDLE CLASS WHITE WOMEN……
Now you are off the hook
PEACE BROTHER…………..
You assume too much and you are wrong. Do you actually think I saw the comment EXACTLY at the moment it was posted? Try to use your brain a little please. And don’t bother answering me because you just managed to irritate me with your usual petty comments.
I do not assume anything……………
You are to easy……..give up……
I GUESS you decided to pack up your GEMS AND GO…….
White Jade or Green, Glen? Chinese or other? I used to be pretty involved but it has been decades since my last cuts were made. Personally I always had a preference for the materials that were being mined in British Columbia. Gorgeous colors available and some could be carved up and cut to perfection. They would take on a deep, lustrous, translucent hue that is very hard to explain in writing.
Check out some images for an idea of the grades and colours.
https://www.google.com/search?q=bc+jade&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=JdEmVYi_Cc_TaL7ggPgM&ved=0CD0QsAQ&biw=1366&bih=586
Green/chinese as I heard it is a special gift that tells them how important you are to them? I might be wrong.
Looking for something like this but authentic
https://www.google.com/search?biw=1024&bih=643&tbm=isch&q=real+jade+bracelet&revid=1934911756&sa=X&ei=KekmVey6LcuesAWnv4H4Cg&ved=0CCEQ1QIoAQ
Any idea how much for his and hers? With certificates of authenticity
glenfidish……….YOU might have tweedy give you a certificate of authenticity, he is a gem of an expert….
Apparently that’s what his followers say in here 🙂
🙂
Glenfidish:
Most jade found in China is actually imported from either Cassiar in Northern BC or from the South Island of New Zealand. The most expensive material I have ever seen in China was white jade that comes from western most China. There is actually no single stone named jade, but two different stones, jadeite and nephrite.
I don’t think a certificate would mean anything at all any more than getting an estimate for an insurance company from a jewelry store. Buy something you like and pass it one. I don’t see it as an investment.
Don’t waste your breathe Bob. Glen is not being serious here. More like baiting is the truth of it. Some of the fools here (on a site devoted to resource investing) have never been to a working mine nor do they know the first damn thing about geology, let alone the valuable stones that so often come out as by-products. BC Jade is a bit different though. You can find weathered pieces on the surface and in creek beds in the strangest places. Most people would not even know a great Jade find if they were standing right on top of the damned thing. And yet they can be worth a fortune if you can winch them out of a creek and get them back home to be sawn up.
Bird your such a tool! Get over yourself it’s to apparent. Unlike bob who is very resourceful and knowledgeable.
Ahhh…the lapdog finally reveals his true nature! You got caught man.
Thank You 🙂
Bob,
Fantastic! Thanks a bunch exactly what I needed. You went way beyond.
Bird was correct on silver everybody….
Yes I was. Thank you for mentioning that Agatha. The twits here will deny it until the cows come home but NONE of them has ever been able to make accurate calls that were not purely accidental.
Bird:
You are a hoot. A fact could fall on your foot and break your big toe and you would still be pretending it didn’t exist.
Bob Moriarty
Archives
Nov 6, 2014
November 6, 2014 is the full moon and it’s common for either markets to accelerate in the direction they are moving or to do a U-turn in direction. With the washout in gold, silver and mining shares of all sorts in the last week or so, investors should be watching for a bottom and sudden move higher.
I don’t get the point of that one Bob.
Check the kitco chart, by their chart it did exactly as Bird said to “watch” for.
Nov 5 actually from what I see.
So, you could say, Bird was right about accelerating in the direction, as no u turn happened.
So, I miss your point, sorry. Just sayin.
BB:
You need help learning how to read charts. Gold plunged on the 6th and turned higher exactly as I forecast and that was to low so far.
good one BOB……..
I tried copy paste but I couldn’t get it to work.
You think I cant see it?
Or kitco chart is wrong maybe?
NOV 6 2014
Just as Bird said.
J go look at the chart and see for yourself.
BB:
Kitco only shows the close. Find another chart such as INO and you will see gold did exactly what I predicted. Exactly. There was a big plunge to a new low and then it shot higher.
bb…….charts are like some bibles, depends on who prints them and who interprets the info.
OOOPPSS, my error entirely. Yes it did exactly as YOU said Bob, no doubt about it.
I read the post wrong, I thought it was Birds predictions and couldn’t understand why you were saying he got it wrong.
You were absolutely correct, I gotta be more careful. My mistake.
Bob Moriarty…what the hell are you smoking? Your post is from November! That’s six months back. You and I were not even talking about metals on the same thread. What Agatha refers to is that I warned of a silver plunge these past few days which was contrary to the bulls thinking it was going to take right off.
Come back to the planet buddy. And leave the whacky weed behind.
Bob’s response was perfectly appropriate since you took this WAY off-base this jab at everyone here: “The twits here will deny it until the cows come home but NONE of them has ever been able to make accurate calls that were not purely accidental.”
Maybe you need to re-read your own delusional words several times before you get it.
Why Al tolerates you here is completely beyond me. You only drag the place down.
What a way to show your ignorance and poison once again to a regular contributing poster of which most in here like. Keep this one on record folks as he attacks bob, matt,doc,gary everyone on a regular then turns around and gives smiles like nothing has happened. Someone needs there head checked.
Matt,
Al tolerates him for the other side of the debate. Its good for business and he post 24 hrs a day so its good marketing as well. Better to have some dilemma I guess.
I’m sure you’re right Glen, but he shouldn’t. The rest of us know how to disagree without destroying the potential value the disagreement might bring. Bird is a complete $!()# no matter what side of any debate he’s on. For me, his value would have to rise substantially just to reach ZERO.
🙂 😉
Birdman:
How’s your toe feeling with your foot in both a cast and your mouth?
bird thinks he is on vacation ,when he has on his plaster of Paris cast.
To tell the truth Bob, I really have no idea what the disagreement here is or what your post or your article are about. I did not read any of it. As you know, I refuse on principle to open links to your site because of your extreme viewpoints.
So we will eave it at that.
“The rest of us know how to disagree without destroying the potential value the disagreement might bring”. — Matthew
—————–
That is probably the funniest thing you ever wrote. I have hundreds of your extremely abusive posts on hand to prove you know nothing whatsoever about a civil discourse.
How about I copy and paste them to remind everyone?
Copy and paste all you want; you brought those posts on yourself.
You go do that while I continue to book profits on the gdxj calls I bought yesterday. Don’t forget to pet your turtle while your at it.
Do you want to know the real reason I don’t bring them up again? It is because some of them were just so horrible I don’t ever want them to appear beneath a post I left. Even if they were your words. Just the association with the filth you wrote is reason enough to leave them in the past
Not only are you insane, but your complete LIAR. Your worst posts have been far worse than ANY of mine. GTF out of here with your trash.
Everyone here was correct on silver…………
No they were not. Not even one of them. Show me a quote or bugger off.
We were correct before you arrived………….
I am still waiting for your 968 gold number……….
Just messing with you birdy…….
Jerry, chip, chip, oh sorry B, chip, chip! LOL!
tweedy is getting a GEM LESSON…..or his GEMS ARE GETTING SQUEEZED….
I THINK…. BOB M….is giving him a gemologist test………
Language Bird, language….. It was you who only a couple of days back urged Al to remove any posts which used offensive words. Medication must be wearing off.
Andrew, he should get a brain scan at the same time. he needs a new prescription. LOL!
If the word is in Merriam Webster print edition it is acceptable in most company. Bugger is not a profanity Reverend.
But you knew that Andrew. The word bugger is the mildest of execrations in your jolly old England. Even priests use the word. I think it has fallen into the category of what old men and women say when they cannot bring themselves to actually curse out loud.
Would you agree, you old bugger?
Correct about what exactly. Not being sarcastic just wondering which call you are referring to exactly as I asked Bird for is short, med. and long term outlook on silver but have not seen it yet so would be curious to see the call you are referring to.
IMHO the day to day price fluctuations don’t matter so much now as the whole industry is undervalued to the point that the silver price does not factor in as much to the underlying stock prices of the actual producers.
Chris, another boxer that gave Mohammed Ali a run was George Chuvalo, a great Canadian heavyweight champion, but I’m sure you remember him. DT
Yes, sir, Dick — I follow little boxing any more, but used to watch most of the big fights of the 70’s especially. Then Gerry Cooney deflated me in the early 80’s, and I lost interest.
Looks like the Chinese and Russian stock markets just went into blast off mode. Check out RUSL, SHI, BYDIF as examples. I have traded these in the past pulling down any where from 18 to 103% profits.
Jason you are a madman!! Where are you at with the JDST versus JNUG at present?
I don’t know how you can play both and come out on top..
No you can’t. Depending on when you purchase them both, one becomes the hedge against the main position, so that if it moves against you, then you sell the hedge and double down on the main position. That is NOT what I am advocating, but seemed to be what Jason was doing last week and earlier this week.
Personally, I would rather used a tiered system where you enter a position, and if it moves against you, enter in a second tier, and then possibly one last 3rd tier. Then as things rise I usually wait until I take out the level of the 3rd and 2nd tier and pull out a percentage, then when I get above the 1st tier I take some profits, and leave the remaining percentage as playing for pure profit. It usually serves me well.
I guess the advantage to betting both directions is that if you are wrong, the counter bet made the same percentage in earnings, and then you sell that and roll it into the main position, where if you just held the cash it would have stayed stagnant.
My whole thing is that if you really believe the position you take is valid, then why would you want to bet against yourself which cancels out your gains?
That is why I prefer the tiered approach, but to each their own.
Its actually a pretty common method to hedge out risk, Shad. Maybe the most common. It just comes down to probabilities and time frames. You place equal bets on both sides of the trade and then wait for momentum to kick in and then dump the loser. For example, during a live Fed meeting when you are not sure which direction the market will go but you are pretty sure you can make a buck anyway if you can catch some of it. So you do both sides just to cover your arse in case your basic belief is wrong. And then you wait……..But you have to sit on the trade live and not take your eyes off the screen during those opening minutes. All you are doing is getting ready to sell the dog and keep the angel and make your percentage. It’s done a million times a day……..
Maybe one of these days Chris can do a show dedicated to hedging your trades. I think everyone would be interested in that. The basic premise behind it though is not to lose money no matter what you are trading.
Isn’t that the first rule we should all follow….start by not LOSING money!
The brokerage houses make more money from transaction fees from hedging rather than staying out of the market. Personally I don’t like paying for these guys dress shoes.
Yeah, I hear you on the hedging, but if you are just going to break even, then it is better not to trade. If you place a bet that a 3 x ETF is going up and it does you make money. If you place an opposing bet and it takes off, but the hedge in this case is a mirror image with a reverse 3x ETF then you made no money and lost the broker fees. I agree with you Dan Calgary, that I don’t want to over-trade and end up breaking even and then wasting money in fees.
I could see the advantage to placing a 2-way bet right on key news breaking, and then depending on the trend, getting out of the hedge right away, and rolling that into the winning direction. Holding them both longer though makes zero sense.
Bird, I see your getting your regular “worm feed” dinner. lol
Another excellent call you made, another drop.
Man you time those well.
I havnt seen anyone with a better record than yours anywhere in predicting drops, maybe Silver Doc tho, I don’t watch his record but he’s pretty good too.
But you have been totally unreal, kinda wish I knew how you do it.
Anyway, congrats once again.
Saved me some cash AGAIN. lol thanks.
Yes bb….worms again! From the regular suspects taking little pot shots and dishing up snippy comments. Kind of funny they brought up Jade though. What puzzles me is how anyone who takes metals seriously did not also learn something about precious and semi precious stones. At one time I knew pretty much everyone in the Pacific Northwest in the lapidary and mineral business. Used to be a serious collector and hobbyist. Pretty sure I mentioned it here in the past but I cannot be bothered to do the search. Just a waste of my time with these guys who all seem to know nothing about anything at all.
But about metals? Yeah, most of them are groping in the dark and don’t have a clue which direction its going day by day, never mind the magnitude of moves that are coming. Matthew has a clever way of trying to find out though. He gets his little lap dog to quiz me so he doesn’t have to ask me directly (that would be Glen of course).
Can you imagine…. They wrote each other 28 times in one day and then Matthew told us about it. How humiliating for Glen!
I still can’t believe that others here can stand you. You absurdly pretend to be all about civilized dialogue and then you routinely prove just the opposite with idiotic comments like this: “Matthew has a clever way of trying to find out though. He gets his little lap dog to quiz me so he doesn’t have to ask me directly (that would be Glen of course).”
—What’s wrong with you and why aren’t embarrassed by your childishly negative and counterproductive ways around here?
As for this idiocy… “They wrote each other 28 times in one day and then Matthew told us about it. How humiliating for Glen!”
—It’s called a conversation, genius. Unlike you, Glen is neither a fraud nor a sociopath, so we have plenty to talk about regarding the markets and trading.
But do you snuggle?
bb ~ Here’s a tissue. You have something on your nose.
I like gold, but its plain as day what Bird sees in goldbugs. lol
Trader Dan and Armstrong too actually.
Drives you guys itchy he is as accurate as he is doesn’t it?
Funny as heck.
Yup, gold is great……………the gold-bugs….hmmm, maybe not so much. I am just realizing though they are actually ignorant about pretty much everything. Never thought I would say that and really mean it.
What a joke, you’ve been talking trash since you got here.
28 emails in just one day sounds like an obsession to me. And those were between strangers on an anonymous blog. Kind of creepy actually. And then the next day your lapdog was peppering me with questions about gold and silver.
Yah…you were not behind that!!!! Do your own research man!
It’s creepy to you because you are not the investor or trader that you pretend to be. You told me I should “speak from the heart” for crying out loud. That’s the last thing an analytical REAL investor/trader would say.
As for Glen’s questions, you’re imagining things if you think Glenn was up to something. Unlike me, he apparently seems to think you know a thing or two, so calling him anyone’s lapdog is particularly low of you.
What is Ben babbling about now? Silly Dan was way too late to the bear camp to be worthy of any praise and Armstrong was dead wrong at the start of the bull market when he called for sub $200 gold and sub $3 silver. Now, with that out of the way, my main complaint is that some of HIS commentary (not what Socrates puts out) is too ridiculous to be believed by anyone who has done more than watch a Bill Still video.
At intermediate term lows that resulted in big rallies in the miners, Marty has done no better than most of his peers. December 2013, for example, he and countless others were calling for much lower gold when I said it had little if any downside and was buying miners and calls on GDXJ.
If anything drives me crazy, it’s sociopaths and the dummies they dupe.
Uhhh, you might have missed that part where gold has been in a four year BEAR MARKET!
Ha ha ha ha ha!!!! What a duper.
Armstrong accurate? You got to be kidding me! This is one of the funniest statments I have heard. BB do a google search and see what he was predicting for 2015 a couple years back on interviews and in public.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=ersOJve_4f4
http://www.arabianmoney.net/gold-silver/2015/02/25/futurologist-martin-armstrong-forecast-5000-gold-for-2016-just-over-five-years-ago/
bb……..you always come in after dinner……………..
HI Jerry….I have been trying to figure out what bb stands for…all I can come up with is.
birds buddy…bird brain…bird bath…beep-beep (as in the roadrunner ) black bird…
bird beak…sod it I’m getting bored with this…bb , just having a laugh
hello Irish…….glad to hear from you. Maybe we should ask him.
leave a lot to the imagination………with two letters , and small ones at that…..
Go ahead, laugh it up Tony. lol
Stands for whatever you want I guess, no problems.
Actually, now that I think about it, I think someone stole my original moniker some time back and bb was just easy to type in.
“original moniker ” – now that phrase sounds like a BM.
bb=BM?
– that’s a Brit Bangin’ your Irish girl friend haha
Song of my day: PJ Harvey is a f***ing genius.
“We Float” by P.J. Harvey
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLug8kfZpq8
Of course the flaccid old men on this blog will make rude remarks. Whatever.
Doc,
You have market wisdom about you that is second to none. You are correct that we are at a pivotal point regarding all of the markets.
PM’s , currencies , EM’s and conventional stocks are in a ” which way will they break stage ”
The wash on PM’s should be right here. If not, it’s going to be a prolonged agony.
How to make a hole the size of an office desk in the gold-bug and hard money canoe. In a thousand words or less. — by Martin Armstrong. This is a brief argument explaining why an end to fractional banking is also going to result in the end of the system even the bug rely upone. And why gold would actually plummet in value if they ever got their way. But don’t bother fighting the hard money advocates. They are not the brightest bulbs around and few of them would even admit that when they invest in gold want they REALLY want are DOLLAR PROFITS!!!
Fractional Banking Myth – & Giro Banking
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/04/10/fractional-banking-myth-giro-banking/
You really should read that article, Matthew. Armstrong is brilliant. You might learn something new.
Funny, you used to knock Armstrong when I first told you about him two years ago.
Forty+ years ago guys like Armstrong were sure that gold would drop if it lost its dollar backing. Got that? Gold was backed by the dollar according to these statist shills and buffoons.
“Dollar profits” flow naturally to those who invest to gain value. It has been many years since I started measuring my performance and net worth in gold rather than dollars. If you’re worth more gold you’re worth more money and have more wealth. The same cannot be said with any certainty about a rising net worth measured in dollars.
It does not matter if some fiat Marx-paper goes up and down against gold; stocks and bonds do too and there is a time for and place for each. But gold is the one that stores value well enough that one can plan their future needs around it. Fiat currencies are for speculating.
Bird,
MA is only half right. It is true that fractional reserve banking should still exist, but not in the way it’s operated now. Even with a gold or asset based standard, it will be a fractional reserve structure. He’s correct in that respect.
But MA is clueless of how money is created and how the system currently works. Or else he’s lying and is just put there for sheeple to believe. He has no clue about banking guidelines and regs.
Fractional banking will always exist , how money is created is what is going to be the structural change. And will happen soon.
Chartster, its going to be really hard for me to agree with you that he is clueless. Martin is one of the brightest guys around. I am not however a big fan of his politics so I ignore that side of his articles but when he starts talking capital flow models, secular shifts in asset classes, currency strength / weakness, interest rates and cycle theory I am all ears.
And seriously, some of his comments on gold are brilliant. As he has pointed out many times, gold is not fixed in value at all and probably never will be. Even gold functions as fiat when it is a state currency so you cannot avoid booms and busts just by returning to gold backing.
As we know, the business cycle was alive and well under a gold standard too.
Really, most of the gold-camp thesis has been badly debunked the past few years. The general public would never support it anyway. Certainly not as elucidated by the gold crowd. It simply far too restrictive. The equivalent of an economic straight jacket.
And yet there seems to be this idea within the hard money community that it is government alone that is the impediment and somehow going back on a gold standard is a populist idea that would be supported by the public.
That’s nuts. The second Joe Average came to realize what the death of credit would do to him the whole notion would be chucked out the window and rejected outright.
And after all, if the hard money thesis including a rejection of fractional reserve banking was really so compelling don’t you think more people would clamor to have it instituted?
These ideas are purely fringe. They are not widely embraced. In a nutshell, nobody cares to hear it because it represents tipping the apple cart and shifting power from one class of economic theorists to another. But what’s in it for the guy on the street?
Absolutely nothing. So it will never gain wide acceptance. We are NEVER going back to a gold standard. NEVER.
Bird,
That piece that Armstrong wrote was half truth. And he is wrong about the current banking structure. Joe six pack will do what ever the TV tells them to do.
And the financial system will change and be backed by gold and other assets. You’ll see.
Interesting topic – it may be wise to separate out two concepts: (1) A currency backed by hard assets (PMs, oil, land, etc) and (2) Fractional banking. Specifically, a country could instantly change the percentage of their total money supply backed by are assets. For example, China could announce that the RM is 10% backed by gold – it doesn’t have to be 100%.
Exactly.
You’ll see?…just you wait.
Based on what Chartster? Surely you have some sort of evidence that is what’s coming. You do realize that the only reason China is accumulating gold is get to the percentage of reserves necessary to be accepted by the IMF as one of the reserve currencies. It is not to gold-back their Yuan. Exactly as no other country in the world with significant gold reserves gold-backs its currency.
The whole idea is preposterous unless everyone goes along with it and also returns to a gold standard. And the probabilities of that happening are just about zero. So we can probably just let this old idea die.
We are not ever going back to old monetary systems that did not work and were a hindrance to global commerce and trade. The Chinese sure are not so foolish they would embrace that kind of thing. Seems most here really underestimate their motives.
Rather, we will go onto a full electronic standard of money and we will in time see a paperless currency worldwide. Corporate money is on the comeback too. That’s what is behind mobile payment systems. What is it if not a form of currency that can be created (or withdrawn) by the cooperative efforts of phone, credit card and financial institutions working in sync?
Do you really think those business’s want a gold model?
Do you really believe that the Chinese want a gold system?
Totally nuts.
Very well put Birdman. Well done indeed. BM is a dinasour. He was shouting at the top of his lungs for years that we are going to a Gold standard. Get your money out of the bank me 50 more stupid guesses. The fact is that a gold standard would be so hindering
And big business does run the show and there will be a snow ball in hell before that happens. I just paid $20k in business tax the stroke of a key. What am I going to run my bag of gold down to CRA?!!! Electronic currency is highly efficient me cost effective. We just need people in control of money supply’s to keep the M3 to the growth of the economy / population.
You got it Bill. The day we are paying government taxes in bags of gold coins is the day we have returned to an era 200 years before our time. Oh sure, it worked for payment of troops and royal legions in Rome and elsewhere. But if they had paper money then there is little doubt they would have used that instead….Gold as money is one of the most profoundly stupid ideas still in circulation these days. It is only a tiny minority on sites like this that see it as a realistic plan.
Govermemts / Central printers are seriously irresponsible but hey what’s new since the beginning of dawn. I’m getting sick of the cost increases and buecracy here in BC. Shit the economy was booming and was an excuse to crank up prices. Now it’s in the crapper and prices have gone up on hydro, Ferries, insurance again. I’m thinking Ecuador or the Philippines (cause the wife’s from there) the cost of living in Vancouvers getting absolutely stupid. Bird when did you retire?
FYI BM = Bob and many others out there. What can I say? Fear sells.
It’s happening right now in front of you. Just follow the bouncing ball , Bird.
No it is not. You are dreaming man!
Bird, thanks for providing a counter balance to the uber, perpetually bullish gold bugs.
Does anyone of them acknowledge we have been in a nigh on 4 year bear market which has no end in sight?
For the record I do recall reading some pretty nasty posts from mathew.
Ok, he may have been goaded but why loose your dignity?
It’s called emotion, Karl
Big Al
The aggressor always deserves more than he dishes out. My dignity is just fine.
Great thoughts gentleman. Things just keep on keepin’ on.