Market Commentary from LPG
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Only the sheeple will go cashless,,,,,heck, they are cashless already.
Depends on how you define “cashless”!
Hey, no cash means women can go bra-less again.
that should be bra inless………….
That’s okay when their younger, before gravity takes over!
Nice one DT ! 🙂
Best to you,
LPG
🙂
I know plenty of women with wads of cash that go also prefer bra-less Birdman…and even Brains…..to Boot – Frank from Moscow. I keep an eclectic circle of acquaintances though….:-)
I’m fine with or without the effects of gravity DT and just try to get everyone dancing and let the beauty of the world shine through 🙂
Still working on a way to get everyone doing jumping jacks, but hey, tomorrow’s a new day!
And Twister is fun….when you are single and 21…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1022736/The-moment-652-singletons-converged-Britains-largest-game-Twister.html
Wow….652 people playing twister at once…..and I thought the markets were chaotic.
If you live in Venezuala or Argentina , or Greece. you may already prefer gold or silver coins. And look at Ukraine or Russia and many african countrys, again , gold or silver coins are already a winner in past 2 years in those very weak currencys. S
Great point Scott. And, I would guess that shortly this will become the norm.
Fantastic point R Scott Hamilton. Gold and Silver did their jobs in the countries with crashing currencies, so it was really a very bullish year for Precious Metals in every measure except the US Dollar. When that changes and becomes the norm in all currencies…..then the currency wars will turn into the ramifications wars.
Lauren Patrick Galauy….doesn’t he work for Casey Research?
No, he does not. He is an individual investor who we were fortunate enough to meet through the blog.
OK. That name sounds familiar, though. Maybe he used to be an actor?
He is a frenchman who ued to be married to Gina Lollobrigida! (How many of you remember that name?)
I used to Al, I used to… 🙂
Best to you,
LPG
LPG we are always glad to have your insights.
Thank you sir and may prosperity return to you 10 fold!
Risk to cash in a bank? Like a bail in, restricted withdraws or even better, negative interest. What risk?
PMs a safety mechanism Cory? Like an insurance? As the goldbugs have been saying forever. lol
5-10% of investible income to gold, that leaves 90%-95% of investible income for chickens.
Thanks for the interview LPG and Al Cory for having lpg on.
He is a good guy, bb, and look for him to be back more often.
BIG AL ! ? YOU REALLY LOVE RYE PATCH GOLD CORP ? ,,,,,, YOU PUT UP 3 X ? YOU START DRINKING AGAIN ? THE 2014 BORDEAUX IS LOOKING OK NO SUPPER BATE OK ?
Even I make the very occasional mistake, Franky!
ALL OK AL ! Take it easy and enjoy life !
Good explanation LPG. You know what’s funny is that during the last depression they used to say it was cash that was king. But this time around that won’t be true if bail-ins become a reality, rates stay negative, cash gets taxed and taxes in general keep rising even as we go cashless. Its as if the last air got squeezed out of the balloon and the one single refuge people might run too is being dismantled in a hundred different ways. There won’t be any Bonnie and Clydes this time around. And no Great Train Robberies either with lots of paper money flying around. Instead the whole world will be on the dole and that’s coming on a little plastic card.
+1 Birdman.
I suspect bank robbers (the few that are left) will have to “recycle” themselves… guess they’ll have to learn coding/programming.
As an aside, when I mentioned during the interview @ 11mn09sec a “crash” in the conventional markets, I didn’t express myself properly (the word “crash” can mean different things for different people, and tend to sound like the Oct. 1987 experience, or the late 2007-2008 experience, or the Nasdaq in 2001 for many of us).
So to correct myself, what I had in mind was a 15-25% retracement/drop/pullback in the conventional markets (some might call this a “crash”, or a “mini-crash”, others might call it a “correction”). Hope this clarifies my thoughts and apologies for the potential confusion caused on the matter.
Best to all and GL investing/trading.
LPG
Good clarification lpg.
When Doc was saying a while back, “little pullback” in gold shares as they have been beaten up so much. What that “little pullback” ment for shares I follow was about 30-35%.
“little pullback” is relative or perspective.
So, knowing that Bird et all understood gold was about to go up, and as I explained, had I got it right PERFECTLY, I would have profited 8% $80 on a thousand.
Its all risk vs reward.
At a poker table, to bet $1000 to make $80 I would have to be holding a royal flush, AND know that no one else had one.
So, when Bird,jj or Doc mention “a little pullback” or drop in goldprice, I take notice.
And when its determined to go higher, I ask myself, whats the odds? Even when they are correct 90%, I have to balance the investment vs reward. Whats the investment required, whats the payoff if correct?
So far, I still think Ricks $800 could be coming, as of the retracement debate earlier.
I know, everyone knew that stuff, but ya never know, there could be a novice just beginning to read these threads.
Just sayin, a good clarification LPG.
bb,
No worries for the clarification. When I listened to the audio, I couldn’t believe I used the word “crash” this way. I like to be specific, and on this one, I wasn’t – hence the correction attempt. Beside, the word “crash” is a bit dramatic – and was wayyyyyyy too dramatic for what I had in my head when I spoke.
Moving now to what you mentioned.
Re: the stocks and “little pullback” for the shares and what it means for shares if there is a “little pullback” in gold or a little move up… one has to be very very veeeery careful in not drawing straight conclusions.
Let me explain what I mean.
At this stage of the cycle, it is increasingly clear who has a good management/exploration team, a good story, good assets, good balance sheet, market confidence or who is getting close to production (ie: close to cash flow soon).
So despite so washy-washy gold prices YTD, some stocks CAN in fact be doing extremely well – especially if their valuation was too cheap -> ie if the market was mispricing the shares for a while (or if a catalyst emerged or if a mgt-led turnaround occurred).
To make it simple and to just talk about names mentioned/recommended/advertised on Kereport: let’s take CRJ and KDX. While I think gold topped around Jan 23rd this year (that’s on the top of my head – so I could be off by 1 day or 2) at about say… $1307/Oz (again, on the top of my head but I could be off by a few dollars) and we are currently lower by about $100, both KDX and CRJ are up quite nicely (I mean more than a mere 5-10%).
So again, THERE ARE stories which are performing very well, for various reasons. One has to be very specific in picking investments/stocks in this PM market in this part of the cycle.
I suspect we’re getting increasingly close to the point where “good” stocks (again: “good” as defined by their mgt/stories/assets/balance sheet/timing to production/market mispricing etc…) are gonna be rewarded and the rest will meander or just die slowly. It is simply a reflection of the fact that investors are becoming very very discerning and that therefore capital is flowing to some names – and potentially leaving the rest.
Some might say that these 2 names (KDX/CRJ) are the exception to the rule – the rule being that gold is off $100 since end of Jan and most names are down. But again, my point is that selectivity, more than anything in this part of the cycle, is key.
So for ex., buying GDX/GDXJ provide exposure to gold… but it doesn’t focus on the good stories or the best ones. It’s an easy vehicle. But what’s easy does not necessarily bring the best results, especially in financial markets.
So a big washout in gold prices below $1000, IF it occurs, is likely to take the whole sector down. But some stocks will have a few scratches to their share price, will others will be thrown to the floor. The best opportunities will in picking up those that should only suffer scratches but which will however be sent to the floor (market mispricing).
Best to you, and GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
In the post above, in the last paragraph, I meant to write: “to their share price, WHILE others will be thrown to the floor”
and
I also meant to write “The best opportunities will BE in picking up”.
Apologies for the typos. Looks like I’m very sloppy today.
Best to all,
LPG
Ha! LPG. Yeah man….get it together on those type-o’s buddy 🙂
I read all the way through and wanted to comment “well said” and that I also think it is stock picker’s market… but then I saw the sloppiness and closed my eyes and couldn’t go on…….. Juzkiddin’ LPG it was good point and there are stocks that have continued to perform well.
Claude and Klondex are both doing above average and have improved things in a declining gold price environment and were good names to reference as examples of where jr mining investment capital was flowing.
In addition, good examples of some of the criteria that cause certain stocks to get rewarded regardless of the commodity price. You stated: ““good” as defined by their mgt/stories/assets/balance sheet/timing to production/market mis-pricing etc…). That is why right now, it can still be rewarding to build positions on healthy pull-backs in the quality companies on your watch-list.
I understand your point on how an index like GDX or GDXJ may miss a few of the “good stories” or an individual major move. I would comment back that many of the companies that make up the SGDM or GDXJ ETF holdings have and will have their own success stories though, and they’ll benefit from those moves. In addition, the ETFs do at least rotate out some of the stinkers from time to time. It is more stable and far less risk to have a managed Index and basket of quality companies, over a single stock; however a single stock can also outperform an index and have phenomenal returns and share price appreciation.
If I feel there is driver up or down in a macro situation or technical pattern, then I may go with GDX/GDXJ/JNUG/JDST/ SGDM and a few quality stocks for the move. Sometimes though, I strategically build a position in a company and average in on the dips over time in a quality stocks. I expect the biggest returns in the individual stocks
Birdman, you don’t understand that the reason we are in this mess is because they haven’t figured out that you need money that is backed by something with value, paper money on it’s own is only worthless script. The other day I watched a video of The Fall Of Saigon, guess what The Vietnamese people who made it out had in their pockets.
Hint, it wasn’t The US dollar!
Sure I understand DT. But I completely disagree money needs to have value unto itself. Fiat is just the means we all agree to that allows us all to make transactions with the least amount of confusion. I don’t need to weigh my paper notes, check for authenticity of the producer, assay for quality or bite them for a purity test.
Its just money, man. Its what makes the world go round. Spend it any way you like and then go make some more. Why in Gods name do I need to have lumps of metal in my pocket to transact exactly what fiat will do just as well?
What you don’t get is that gold is a barter commodity. Its horse and buggy stuff.
re-posting:
Bill Gross Bberg video interview today post FOMC – 14mn long
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-04-29/gross-finds-visible-lack-of-liquidity-in-bond-market
Best to all,
LPG
NO COUNTER PARTY RISK……..