A big drop in the US dollar and another bump in oil, all when the ADP report shows more job creation slowing
Gary has some comments on the move down in the dollar and the rise in oil this morning (hint – he doesn’t think either will last). We also chat about the reversal so far today in the markets after Yellen says stock prices are too high.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Boy, do I agree with you bj!
I am going with Al on his call……..age and experience, or at least age…………the boot 🙂
I say…….gold is not going $1000………..with the new ABX coming on line, I think Gary’s game plan is out the window…………..JMHO………..Frankjerstein the BOOT.
In OTHER WORDS……….TIME TO REBOOT…………… 🙂
BUT, I do like Gary…
got to go clean the fish pond………later………..
Frankjer,
I am replying to you above four comments. THANK YOU, IT LOOKS LIKE TWO OLD GUYS ARE IN AGREEMENT!
Frank, don’t forget to wear your Rubber Boots in fish pond.
I agree with your comment on not going to $1,000. I also think silver’s new range will be between $17 and $19 in the near term. I know bird thinks it is going down but it sure has shown strength lately.
Silver topped before Gold, and went down harder than gold, and has rebounded earlier than gold. This is why I am skewed more towards Silver miners than Gold miners at present.
I also have a nice position in a handful of PGM miners and explorers, but did take some profits and trimmed back my Stillwater Mining position today on the price surge. My 3 year position is averaged in at $12.88, and I couldn’t help but sell a little back today at $14.30 (missed $.07 at end of the day though ….darn-it). On the next dip I may buy a little more again.
Oil up, Dollar down, PMs confused……That’s exactly what we predicted would be happening this week for the last 2-3 weeks. Again, my targets were the dollar would bottom around 92 (and said that mid-April), and Oil would get to $64-$66 before it’s counter-trend move would temporarily top and roll over. As for Gold, it is bi-polar and stuck in a range, but if the jobs report is ugly it may get a bit of a pop on safe haven, but it isn’t showing any strength. Once the dollar climbs after bottoming it will continue to pressure PMs and Gold will retest 1130 Nov. lows. Gold is too hard to call here.
Personally I went into Fertilizers and Uranium stocks today for a change of pace.
I couldn’t take it any more and did just take a good position in Mosaic (MOS) this morning. In my mind, the Fertilizer and Potash companies will start to shine in the near future.
Next up FMC corp (FMC), Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (POT), ICL Fertilizer (ICL), Intreid Potash (IPI)
Also……Uranium stocks surged 2 weeks ago and I trimmed positions or sold positions into that strength (22-24th). However, today they look beaten back down so I took out new positions in Uranerz Energy (URZ), Ur-Energy (URG), Paladin (PALAF), and added to Cameco (CCJ) this morning. Some of them are already turning back up.
ditto on………gold is too “hard” to call……….. the boot… 🙂
Not in the mid term, Frankjer.
Commented today on the Daily Editorial with Chris. Thanks for your input.
Don’t chase oil. You already missed most of the move.
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2015/05/chart-of-the-day-62.html
Agreed. $64-$66 has been where I felt Oil would be capped since late March. Then it will turn back around and head down, as the US dollar heads up in the near future.
In fact, the lows in oil are likely not in yet, and I was waiting for a $38-$40 range last plunge, and feel we’ll go back and tag that area in the next few months, before finally heading back up on a steady up-trend into the $70’s in 2016.
Shad my man! I’m thinking oil will retest 32-35 bottom from 2008 you don’t think?
Once it breaks 40 i would think it would capitulate and 32-35 area support from 2008 should be it’s bottom but i’m also not discounting your range.
Hey Stewie – good to hear from ya man.
Well, I’ll be curious to see how much strength there is to the downside when oil corrects, but $38 was my prior target.
Al:
You know Bill (a.k.a. Flek)! I’m one of his charter subscribers and have been reading/listening to him for years! Because of him I did well during the last gold/gold miners run several years ago. I’d love to see him on the show!
Be well and thanks for all you and the guys do!
Mike
GOOD IDEA MIKE………..
even shoeshine boys can call a bull market very very few can call a bear market so I wouldn’t place too much credit on those who call bull markets rather than those who can call bear markets, bull markets make everyone look smart!
🙂
Many a trader has confused a bull market for brains. Sadly most of them “buy the dip” when the bear shows up, leaving their brains at the door.
By-the-by, if it wasn’t clear that I really like/appreciate the advice I’ve gotten over the years from Bill F. there is one more thing about him that needs to be said – he probably has saved me as much money over the years as he has made me. Long, long before folks ever mentioned the “housing bubble” he was talking about folks using their homes as ATMs and warning anybody that would listen that this would not end well. I well remember folks telling me that I needed to invest is Sally and Freddie before they blew up – I just kept my mouth shut and said nothing because I knew where those companies were headed.
Yeah….It would be good to hear Bill on the show Al & Cory. Along with the list we discussed a few days ago:
Re-posted from the Weekend Show:
On May 2, 2015 at 10:21 am,
Shad says:
I agree. Dan Oliver had some very interesting thoughts, I always like what Michael Belkin has to say.He’s on it with the stock picks as I was watching all those companies except the 2 Australian ones (Dragon and Norton Gold Fields) as those were new to me. Tahoe Resources, Detour Gold, Klondex, Endeavour Silver, Guyana Goldfields, and Lake Shore Gold were already on my watch-lists and/or want-lists.
Of course the round table with Al/Cory/Doc/Rick is looked forward to each weekend. Where has Chris Temple been this week?
Also, Al, what happened to the daily editorial ideas with Roger Weigand? He was on a few times in Jan/Feb and then vanished again.
When are you going to get Peter Grandich back on? Or David Morgan? Or Rick Rule? Or Peter Schiff? Or Mickey Fulp? Or Axel Merk? Or Alex Letourneau? Or Eric Coffin? or What about Scott Gibson from Kitco Gibson Captial?
*Can I recommend Jordan Roy-Byrne as a potential guest? He is fairly consistent and has been very accurate for the last 5-6 years on the way up and down in the PM space, and is accurate in his charting. Jordan does a weekly update on Palisade Radio that is worth reviewing (along with his past editorials on there).
Here is his Kitco interview this week, and I agree with him on Bear Creek Mining if there is a silver price increase and on the strength of Kirkland Lake Gold as of late.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9V8XbFrmeE
On May 2, 2015 at 11:08 am,
original jj says:
Interesting Shad as I have the complete opposite outlook towards Peter Grandich who was the go to guy during the uranium bull run years ago yet he held onto his jr’s and got killed he had a breakdown poor man, lost a lot of money!
David Morgan has called every bottom in silver as the bottom, every one that guy is never wrong about anything
Rick Rule again was long the jr’s to a fault and only recently has suggested this past year the bottom is not in yet with the jr’s another buy side only salesmen, very dangerous!
Peter Schiff was completely wrong on US QE and its effect on gold and inflation
Axel Merk was Euro$ bullish US$ negative big time
I know subscribers to Jordan flip-flop Byrne who keeps trying to nail a correct trend for years now
Interesting as imo the above have not done the pm’s sector any good as they continue to pump while lower highs and lower lows play out, like a watch eventually they will get the time right and of course will boost they picked the bottom!, again!
On May 2, 2015 at 12:57 pm,
Shad says:
Original JJ – I agree that ALL the experts were wrong on the severity and timing of this Bear market. However, I don’t think any of the names above are dummies, and they are some of the most well informed voices in the sector for better or worse.
I never base my personal trading on what one person says anyway, and I’m not the type to go guru chasing. In fact, in all my years of trading, I’ve never subscribed to one paid newsletter, but do get the free email newsletters from dozens of people.
All I’m saying is I’d like their thoughts on the Macro picture (Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Commodities), their thoughts inside the Commodity sector in metals and energy, and then the drill down to specific companies or news updates.
I’ve learned a great deal by listening to great minds for many reasons beyond just their short to mid-term calls. You pick up a lot by osmosis, and some of them are quite entertaining to listen to.
Cheers mate!
On May 2, 2015 at 1:21 pm,
Shad says:
The alternative is watching CNBC, so I’ll take my chances with people that actually understand the markets we all trade instead of the clueless talking heads on main-stream media.
I don’t watch the markets for entertainment, I do it to make money, how many great minds have called the US equity run from 2011 or 2009 and the demise of the pm’s sector was my point, I could careless if the guy is the nicest guy on the planet, if he is not calling the action correctly why listen, what is CNBC?
I watch the markets to make money as well Original JJ and formulate my own ideas, and look for value if I’m going to spend my time listening or reading someone else.
As far as I know, every economist, analyst, newsletter writer, and expert is wrong quite often in their careers and if the criteria to listen is that they are 100% accurate, then we don’t have anyone to listen to do we?
As I said above, I don’t think any of the names above are dummies, and they are some of the most well informed voices in the sector for better or worse.
I never base my personal trading on what one person says anyway, and I’m not the type to go guru chasing. In fact, in all my years of trading, I’ve never subscribed to one paid newsletter, but do get the free email newsletters from dozens of people.
All I’m saying is I’d like their thoughts on the Macro picture (Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Commodities), their thoughts inside the Commodity sector in metals and energy, and then the drill down to specific companies or news updates.
I’ve learned a great deal by listening to great minds for many reasons beyond just their short to mid-term calls. You pick up a lot by osmosis, and some of them are quite entertaining to listen to.”
The entertaining part keeps me from going to sleep while they spout off so many numbers, and some of them are very effective communicators to simplify the chaotic.
Cheers mate!
nobody is right all the time especially in these markets, luck plays a big part and any successful trader who suggests otherwise is full of sh!t
Many will correctly change their outlook as they are proven wrong but many just keep harping the same bad advice, as I was telling bb:
It should be financial advice law that anyone who suggests buying or selling anything must post their % results for every month, you would be shocked bb just how many are completely useless!…if they are so good why now post their results?
Those are good points Original JJ, and I agree completely.
I was just thowing out a few names that I respect as suggested guests for the show, but I completely respect you opinions and right to disagree with them. Variety is the spice of life.
Good luck to you sir!
You as well shad, lets see what the NFP does to TLT after the results as its been dragging gold down regardless of the US$ action
Yes, I am glad you brought up TLT as I’m watching it very closely right now JJ.
You are absolutely correct, that sometimes you just get lucky, and I willing to admit that 🙂 because I am sooooooo glad I sold my final 3rd tier position of 75 shares in TLT @ $130.58 on 03/31/15 for $9,793.50, that were purchased for $126.44 on 02/17/2015 for $9483. That trade was only a small profit of $310.50 but it was made in 6 weeks so I’ll take the base hits along the way. (Hopefully that was specific enough for ya JJ 🙂 Honestly, when it fell out of bed in late April I wiped my forehead and said “Whoof, dodged a bullet there!”
However, I am curious to see what TLT does on Friday, and also the start of next week. It has gone down more than most anticipated and may be due for a mini-bounce. Do you have any thoughts on TLT and long term treasuries in general?
I had a position of 225 share of TLT but averaged in 3 tiers and then averaged out in 3 tiers, just for clarification. I use that 3 tiers in and 3 tiers out approach often.
Currently at 0 shares of TLT, but considering bidding on 100-150 shares at around $119. My reasoning is that we may still fall a little further, but a bounce is due, and a prior trough was $118.76 on the close from Nov. 19th, 2014, and a prior peak was at 4119.05 on Aug. 29th, 2014. I see $119 on TLT as a support zone, and will go in on my first tier there.
US equity markets and the bond markets are pricing in a rate hike with their action of late yet the currency the $ is pricing a rate hike later than sooner, the fed has put all US economic data on watch as to when they might act but their number one data watch is NFP so I’m waiting to see the reaction Fri as I’m now flat all pm’s long positions but still long oil until $58.50 breaks, long off $48.50 breaking out, if the data is a blow out bullish release I’d say a June hike could well be in the cards, I find it odd Yellens comment about overvalued equities today while she is well aware what the NFP data is, going to be interesting
That should have said “prior peak was at $119.05 (not 4119.05) on Aug. 29th, 2014.”
Yes, I found that comment from Yellen very much foreshadowing and out of character, but I’m so burnt out on parsing Fed-speak that’s all. It was just a curious statement, but let’s not over-analyze it everyone 🙂
You gotta admit it was a true statement. Nothing more and nothing less!
Just kidding….let’s debate each word for the next few weeks……
Did Yellen know the market would crash or rise (whatever happens)? Is the Fed buying to support the market? Is there a sinister plot to take over the world?
If a tree falls in the woods and there is noone around to hear it, does the Fed still know?
Is the Fed making a list, checking twice, going to find out who’s been naughty and nice?
Was Ben Bernanke Santa Claus?
Great Shad!
We will call him Mike.
Best to you,
Big Al
Gary will be proved right about the USD IMPO.
I read too many ‘end of America’ articles on those doomseter US websites but you guys on that side of the atlantic don’t realise that in times of turmoil people will, always, flee to the safety of the USD.
It doesn’t matter how many tins of baked beans and bullets you have stored in your bunkers – the USA is not going to end or fall tomorrow, next week or next year. It will still be around long after the likes of you and I are gone.
I am long on oil (UWTI) and short on gold (JDST). Might put a stop in on UWTI but I think we will see $68 EOS so I may hold and just deal with some decay.
I think Gary is right about The Fed propping The Markets, but The Fed has a number of problems that are very pressing, one is Washington’s finances which are being hurt by a higher dollar and Europe is very close to default via Greece. A lower dollar helps US companies and domestic jobs and a lower dollar is positive for The Europeans who are in a financial crisis. Both Gary and Rick think that this is a corrective move because they both say the dollar is headed much higher say to 110 to 120. It will be interesting to see how this plays out but the instability of the dollar is very troublesome.
Shad….FMC is a big supplier to the oil/gas industry..the industry decline must be affecting their salea.
Oil service industry revenue projected to be down 50% in the US this year….that’s huge.
Hey Biggus, thanks for thoughts on FMC. My thoughts are that most of what they do is the Fertilizer and food/agriculture business so I think they have room to run from here. The Feritlizer space got the snot kicked out of it from Jan-April of this year, and is showing signs of putting in an intermediate bottom and heading back up for a while.
I may still be a little early to the dance, but I’ve been watching this space all year for an entry point, and I think MOS may have just Triple-bottomed on Thursday April 30th at ($43.88, then $43.92, then $43.99). Yesterday it went down and tagged $44.04. Overall one could say Mosaic (MOS) just double bottomed twice in the $44 range, so I jumped in at $44.11 today………..what a Cosmic number.
As for FMC corp, ICL corp, Potach Corp, and Intrepid – I’m waiting for their next pullbacks and will be going in over the next month or so if I see a price I like.
Really I went in heavier on Uranium this morning than anything, believe this a great entry point into this space. News will be breaking in one month on the Japanese restarts, and there is real enthusiasm again and interest for the first time in 4 years post-Fukushima. There are a lot of reactors being built, permitted and others in planning, and there is a real supply deficit that will be all too obvious in the next 2 years.
Here is the breakdown of what FMC does and it is mostly Food and Agriculture.
FMC Corporation, a diversified chemical company, provides solutions, applications, and products for the agricultural, consumer, and industrial markets in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. FMC Corporation was founded in 1884 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The company operates through three segments: FMC Agricultural Solutions, FMC Health and Nutrition, and FMC Lithium.
The FMC Agricultural Solutions segment develops, manufactures, and sells crop protection, professional pest control, and lawn and garden products, such as insecticides, herbicides, and fungicides. This segments insecticides are used to protect crops, including cotton, sugarcane, rice, corn, soybeans, cereals, fruits, and vegetables from insects; and for non-agricultural applications, such as pest control for home, garden, and other specialty markets. Its herbicides are used to protect crops from weed growth, as well as for non-agricultural applications, including turf and roadsides; and fungicides are used to protect crops from fungal disease.
The FMC Health and Nutrition segment offers microcrystalline cellulose for use in drug dry tablet binder and disintegrant, and food ingredients; carrageenan for use in food ingredient for thickening and stabilizing, pharmaceutical, and nutraceutical encapsulates; alginates for food ingredient, pharmaceutical excipient, healthcare, and industrial uses; natural colorants for use in food, pharmaceutical, and cosmetics; pectin for food ingredients for texture and stabilizing; and Omega-3 EPA/DHA for nutraceutical and pharmaceutical uses.
The FMC Lithium segment offers lithium for use in batteries, polymers, pharmaceuticals, greases and lubricants, glass and ceramics, and other industrial uses.
Here is a breakdown for The Mosaic Company:
The Mosaic Company produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients for the agricultural industry worldwide. It operates through two segments, Phosphates and Potash. The Phosphates segment owns and operates mines in Florida. It offers concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and ammoniated phosphate products. This segment also offers phosphate-based animal feed ingredients primarily under the Biofos and Nexfos brand names. The Potash segment produces and sells potash for use as fertilizers and animal feed ingredients, as well as for use in industrial applications.
It also offers potash products for use in the de-icing and as a water softener regenerant, as well as fluorosilicic acid for water fluoridation. The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts. The Mosaic Company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Plymouth, Minnesota.
On Thursday April 30th (MOS) Mosaic tested ($43.88, then $43.92, then $43.99). Then on Tuesday May 5th it went down and tagged $44.04. Yesterday I jumped in at $44.11 thinking it may have double-bottomed. Today it got down to $44.02 and bounced of that level, so maybe it triple bottomed? It is looking that way.
That is 3 times in the last week it has been right around the $44 dollar and bounced, which tells me there is some nice support there, and my best guess is that is should break up to test the $46 level in the near term. However with Jobs numbers coming in tomorrow, I am a bit nervous equities may fall out of bed, so this is not investment advice. I am just curious as to if anyone else is watching Mosaic (MOS)?
Well MOS did close higher today and didn’t violate the 44.02 again, so it looks like a short term triple bottom to me….. Tomorrow may be a little nutty though, so I prepared to act accordingly and limit my loss if this moves against me.
It all worked out. Mosaic (MOS) surged higher today and closed around $45.46, about a 2.5% increase from my initial purchase price of $44.11 When I went in the other day, I was a little too enthusiastic, so I trimmed some of my position back today and took some modest profits to redeploy those funds into larger positions in Ur-Energy (URG) and Uranerz (URZ). But it looks like for the short term, the Triple bottom held and MOS is on the way back up for a short bit.
I think Gary’s call on the dollar is spot on. Hopefully it will drag down gold significantly so we can get the final low over and done with this year !
Rip off the band-aid and let’s get this over with…..:-)
biggus ditto to what you said. I’m so sick of this trading range. You can’t trade this for sh1t. I’m hoping for capitulation in gold and miners and then V shape counter trend rally or first bull market upleg (past 1308 if first leg). Last time i made 255% and i’ve been out since then. This time i’m setting up 400% trade but setup is not there yet. !000 on gold woudl creat this setup for me.
I like Garys thinking, I notice again the shares I watch are down a little yet again.
1 of them 3.56% and its profiting and paying a dividend too.
The shares look to me like they will be “chucked” when gold heads to $1000.
Al, sure take Chindia and Russia seriously, what about taking those 26 thousand tons of temple gold in India seriously? Those Tons they have decided to put on the market.
A story yesterday was Venesuala “pawned” gold, it was taken from London vaults, thought Venesuala got their gold back? Pictures, crowds cheering and everything,
Its all the same bank. lol
Will Greece use its gold for IMF payments?
JJ, wasn’t some Greek gold already taken?
I read about a year ago? Greece bought 2000 onces.
Interesting whats going on in Greece, I guess the bank is more powerful than the government so my guess is yes Greek gold will be used to pay the IMF, or pawned and that cash used. Something along those lines.
well considering the banks run the goverments, look at the negative or near zero interest rates yet the banks are allowed to charge insane % points on any credit card debt, loan sharks or what!!!!
The Italian dictator Benito Mussolini defined fascism as the merger of the State and the Corporation. It is that social system in which the interests of the State and the corporations merge together This is the quintessential characteristic of a fascist state.
I think the fact the west is fascist is supposed to be a secret, maybe a new name for it could be invented?
Ill talk to marketing.
Opportunists
I find it hard to buy the argument that if we actually get a 20-%30 correction, if follows that we get a blow-off “bubble phase” in a market that isn’t trusted. The way things are now if –%30 correction happens; all the money folks who, since 2009, have been forced to “partake” in these “B.S markets” will certainly try to leave en mass. This is self fulfilling in too many ways to imagine. Joe public will certainly NOT return to a market that fund manages find hard to believe. If there is anything close to a -%30 pullback we will see it melt to a massive crash/collapse. Maybe a 10-15% drop but %20-30 would be lights out for the global ponzi-ists. Highly doubtful.
Gary, brent crude chart has a gap that may well get filled from late Dec when oil really broke down from the $76 level that gap and the 200dma comes in perfectly at $75 Brent it would be stretched cycle but we’ve seen many of those the past 6 months, US$ perfect example
NOTE:
Claude will report quarterly results after close Thursday 07May (tomorrow)
CRJ.TO chart has given you its resistance zone @ .75 good luck!
As mentioned in our newsletter earlier.
I hope that the PM miners are NOT correlated with the general stock market now.
This has always been my biggest fear:
The general markets drop 10-15% and the miners drop 30-50%. Today, I took another little baby step to selling some of my shares in a couple of my miners.
Yes. That is why I was discussing last week that I’m only 1/3 in on PMs and 2/3 in other asset classes and sectors until I see a trend develop beyond the 1180-1200 whipsaw.
I’m willing to miss the first few percentage moves in order to see a trend develop, and not to loose 15-20% getting trapped in underwater positions if the miners do travel down with the general stock markets. Overall, there isn’t a strong correlation, but sometimes the market just says “sell everything into cash to pay margins”, so I moved money around to more boring sectors but with some upside for short term storage.
Just to clarify, these percentages of 1/3 and 2/3 are in my trading account, and not my retirement accounts which are full of traditional mutual funds and boring investments (that have done well the last few years though).
Sounds like your two accounts are very similar to ours!
🙂
In this environment that makes sense to me, Shad.
Thanks Big Al. I have the conservative retirement and riskier trading account and figure between the diversification in the 2 portfolios that we’ll do alright no matter what happens.
Geez Gary, I disagree with almost everything you said today. Sorry buddy. I think you have got it all wrong this time.
Not that I can be bothered to change your mind but the Fed does NOT have your back anymore. That was yesterdays news. Janet Yellen made comments today that you should be very concerned about.
In the process she is attempting to weaken the dollar, blow some froth off stock markets and soften up bonds. Here is one article that might help set you straight…..
Yellen Says Stock Valuations Are ‘Quite High,’ Bond Yields Low
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-06/yellen-says-equity-market-valuations-are-quite-high-
First, you need to recognize that if bond yields rise that the Fed is in a stronger position to hike the Fed Funds Rate. I have pointed out repeatedly that the 30 year has peaked and posted a solid double top. Time to go short in my opinion.
Secondly, the Fed will need the dollar to weaken. That is clearly happening and it will continue long after your target for a bounce has come and gone. You have got that call dead wrong in my view.
Third, her words today are enough to trigger a correction in stock markets and that could now come at any time. I am not talking a crash by any means but rather a 10 to 15% decline. I now feel more strongly that such a fall will begin as soon as next Monday so your advice to buy the dip is just terrible in my view.
When the Fed speaks we need to listen and read between the lines. And when Janet signals that bonds and stocks valuations are too high she is in fact talking the market back down very deliberately.
I therefore anticipate a reaction to materialize fairly swiftly. But consider for a moment what a sell-off in both stocks and bonds really means and you will then better appreciate why crude oil has caught a strong bid and the Canadian dollar is performing so well while USD falls in tandem with precious metals.
Good writeup.
The FEDS have themselves boxed into a corner. Now rates are rising and they will be forced to follow the rates. They are using FED speak to attempt to control the markets. They must remain accommodative otherwise they will trigger the rupture of the bubble. They are hoping for a gradual deflation of the bubble; however, this has never occurred in history. They are wishing the problem would just go away on it’s own.
As a citizen of the United States, these comments are quite embarrassing.
I believe their biggest mistake was the fact that they believed and worked on the principal that if stimulus was removed too early, the US would fall apart. I truly believe Bernake realized this mistake and that is why he got out. Obviously, the decision was not his, but the big wigs behind the curtain.
So with these comments, they want the market to “Cool Off” on it’s own and then if it spirals out of control, they can mention QE.
I personally believe if they ever pulled another QE, that would scare the hell out of the market and cause a waterfall decline.
As per the Gary conversation, is today’s low a buying oppurtunity to test the highs?
Thanks Richard.
I think Gary was talking about a quick retest followed by a new low. You have got to be extremely nimble here and the risk/reward at this point does not make sense to play for a 1 or 2% move higher. I would be more inclined to see a bounce here for a couple of days followed by a strong start to next week and then things may go terrible toward OPEX. It will be interesting. As for a recession, there is nothing to recede.
I agree with Bird.
Thank you Peter. You may just be the only one. We will know by early next week if I am right that US equities are about to finally correct.
HOW ABOUT SOME VEGAS REAL ESTATE……… might need to haul in your own water from the mountains. Vegas going dry, gambling on the economy to change. Like I said several months ago……Real estate is in the tank, and you can not judge the economy from a bunch of diners on a week end break.
Yes the economy is on shakier ground than many are willing to admit, and the Fed is using their confusing language to talk the market into submission.
“You can’t polish a turd, but you can put a bow on it” 🙂
btw………..what would Turd Fur gas son say about that…….
You can polish a turd…look at how shiny the one in the white house is…
Gator….HaHa brilliant.
gator …….too funny……….
Brilliant, agree,
Sometimes even turds float to the top.
Burt Reynolds is Turd Ferguson….. Just wait for him 2/3 in when he comes out in the big hat. It always makes me laugh.
https://screen.yahoo.com/celebrity-jeopardy-stewart-reynolds-connery-000000332.html
sorry, I posted above before reading your comment…………….F THE BOOT
🙂
Even though I don’t use cycles and sentiment, I agree w/Gary.
As a swing trader using mainly daily charts, I don’t try to predict anything; I just find an uptrend and follow it.
Energy/OIH is topping, so I won’t go long here (and I missed this run up), and I won’t short if it goes down as it may be that it’s bottomed on a weekly chart. OIH made a higher high, and I’m waiting for a decline to a higher low, and then go long if that happens.
US$/UUP is bottoming, and if it turns up I’ll go long. The dollar is in a bull market.
Gold on a monthly chart is in a downtrend, and I too think that capitulation is a high probability event. Whether it capitulates or not, I won’t buy until the monthly chart turns up. And I don’t trade GLD – I trade GDX and GDXJ.
What things should be or might be, are important. Fleckstein and Belkin are super smart guys. But trading is practical for me, and I trade what is.
I kind of feel that Gary is spot on with this interview.
Well I think I kind of agree with Gary on the bubble phase but also with Al.
I think maybe we haven’t seen the latest bubble really form in one sector. Maybe it will be biotechs, maybe it will be in the general markets or maybe it will be in the US dollar index.
I think it will was popping of the biotechs bubble on the human genome patenting issue that precipitated the Nasdaq crash in year 2000. Of course the tech bubble of 1995-2000 was also on so many paying scads of money to buy new IT gear in case the Millennium bug wiped out their systems. By early 2000, that hazard had passed and there were no buyers left.
However I also agree with Al. I think he is referring to the bigger bubble, the real big one that has formed in all markets since 1971. That one is getting ripe for popping. The 2008 crash did not take it down – there was a very expensive escape arranged by the powers that be.
So the possibility is for there to be a bubble phase in one market or another and when that pops, the huge bubble comes down with it this time.
Off point, but since the next presidential campaign cycle is in full swing with the mainstream media mentoring their favorite candidate(s) and trashing the rest:
Wouldn’t it be refreshing if a network offered a weekly two-hour competition for the candidates, like dancing with the stars, where they were given equal uninterrupted time to make policy statements on the issue of night.
The moderator simple controls the clock instead of flattering their favorite and or debating the others. Viewers could vote electronically at the end of the show, with the bottom one or two eliminated from further competition. Eliminate two each week until you get down to ten, then one at a time—until we get pour American Idol! God help us.
Seems to me a like sporting, equal opportunity way to entertain and educate the public, as well as offering up original programming instead of the summer reruns. Advertisers will come out of the woodwork to sponsor their products—in many cases, the candidates they’ve bought and paid for!
In the fall let the top five slug it out—again, the ‘moderators’ simply turn on and off microphones for candidate’s time slot.
I can think of lots ‘issues of the week’ without much effort. Start with two broad policies, domestic and foreign for the first two weeks—then eliminate the bottom four.
Then get focused:
Domestic programs promulgated within each of the executive departments, plus impacts of open borders on American workers, Wall Street bailouts, the repeal of Glass Steagal on modern banking, winners and losers under current monetary policies, federal government’s roll in education, and the creation of a federal police force under the Patriot Act, to name a few.
Foreign policies to include: undeclared wars, foreign aid, black ops, the Federal Reserve’s roll in foreign bank bailouts and the IMF, exploding world debt, trade deals (the real winners and losers), the cost of unilateral sanctions as it impacts the shifting balance of power), who pays the cost for corporate colonialism (specifically the cost to maintain a military that props up puppet governments and keeps trade routes open for the multinationals), etc.
Very little of the above is ever discussed in the mainstream media; and when addressed, it’s in vague terms riddled with platitudes and ad homonyms instead of overarching policies.
Would truly enjoy listening to your panel discuss the idea of ‘debating with the stars’. I think it would be fun watching them dance around the