Commentary on the moments in the market
Rick starts us of today with his comments on the markets move today. We continue to believe that the traders are paying close attention to the US dollar which means the other markets are moving because of this.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
There may be just a bit more left in the PM pop so it may be a little premature on the JDST, but who knows….these are crazy markets. It will definitely be JDST time soon enough, but for a while longer odds still favor JNUG for the next few days. Not investment advice, just my personal thoughts.
Regarding yesterdays comment you made on Buffets real estate investments.
These two articles may give you some insight into the thinking of this gangster thought process.
http://old.seattletimes.com/html/realestate/2026021889_mobilehomes1side2xml.html
I know the guy looks gentle always wanting to have a photo of himself eating ice cream so he can look child like and harmless but he is a vicious business man.
I agree.
Stay off his railways…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjLUyna6vaA
Someone at the Fed is most likely pull up the spikes on the railroad ties , so, they can say it was a cause to miss the employment numbers next week., or readjust them. jmho
Railroad ties? Sound like someone who is reading “Atlas Shrugged”
The article in The Seattle Times is more than just a bit interesting!
Thanks fancy pants!
BTW – Below is an interested article discussing the positive effective of currency exchange rates on the profitability of Canadian miners that is interesting:
If Canadian Producers Can’t Turn Profit Now, They Can’t Period – St Andrews Goldfields – CEO
Jason
I am still holding JNUG today. I am being very careful here. If gold closes above 1225 today, it could move higher very fast. All my indicators are saying a new up-trend in gold would starts, even the 1305-sh resistance level could be touched in May.
Brian
I agree Brian that if Gold can close above 1225 it will have taken out 2 levels of resistance at 1221-1222 and 1225 depending on which indicators you’re tracking. The miners have shown some strength, and still may have a little more steam left going into next week. Next resistance at $1238 .20 and then I don’t really care again until $1308 resistance. I would be surprised though it made it much past the mid 1250’s, before turning down into the summer.
The miners may have a different pattern though and fare better than the spot prices on the decline. It will be interesting to see. I also see more upside in the miners and am very interested in watching GDXJ, SGDJ, and SILJ.
Most people would agree regarding more upside in the miners, Shad.
Well if that happens then I will have to change my name to BAG HOLDER! I’ve averaged down before on NUGT, JDST, and DUST with success although with lower profits. I have fliped these 6 or 7 times in the past year pulling down 10 – 29% per flip.
You have Jason. We’ve been watching. Sometimes you crack me up with your posts about the squeeze or your nugts getting squashed. It seems like you’ve done well with the leveraged ETFS. I also play the JNUG/JDST game and have made some nice returns as you mention…..but its a wild ride…..not for the faint of heart 🙂
Good luck to you though. Let me know when you go all-in on JDST.
Jason
I skip many posters on this forum, but NEVER you. I am ALWAYS interested in your current positions and thoughts on the 3xers. I have to admit, I have had less success with JDST than JNUG, but it is probably because I view most things through gold-colored glasses 😉
I’ve actually made more on JDST but long term I’m a little more bullish on the PMs. I just was being realistic with the markets expectations, and used the concept that stocks climb the wall of worry escalator up, but take the fear elevator down. Of course that doesn’t happen every time, and there can be many gap ups that are just as sudden. Overall though, selloffs are exasperated by the liquidity trap and make the moves more severe.
exasperated = exacerbated? Probably that DAMN “spill cheekier”
Sorry, Shad, exacerbate is one of my favorite words.
Like deleterious, concomitant, and contiguous, to name but a few.
🙂 😉
Ha! Yes U R Korrekt “exacerbated” wuz tha werd. (spillcheek iz nauw auff) – How’m I doin’?
I concur on deleterious, concomitant, and contiguous. Exceptional lexicon.
Yes, they certainly can take the fear elevator down. I learned that a long time ago, Shad!
The fear elevator also goes by the name, “no bid”!
Yes. Agreed Al. No bid is a nasty thing to see in a sell-off.
Thoughts Alexco
“Alexco Environmental Group (AEG) recorded revenues of $4.5 million in the first quarter of 2015 for a record quarterly gross profit of $1.2 million, with a gross margin of 26.3%. Cash flows from AEG largely offset cash used during the quarter during the interim suspension of mining operations”
Alexco is going ahead with the summer drilling; I guess they feel if they can break-even with profit from AEG it is worthwhile, but if they had suspended drilling 18 months ago, they would have another 6-8 million in cash, which would provide almost enough to re-start mining and milling. Since they did not, some other financial aid will be needed (probably another stock dilution). Very frustrating for me as an investor of 8 years.
I have mentioned this before, but I really hope the current CEO retires and a person with very different perspective takes over. Personally, I think the current CEO has an explorer bias, rather than a producer bias. Alexco needs a new CEO.
And here is a paragraph from the transcript from the CEO:
“So you can do the math, but I’m happy to report that we’ve achieved a personal goal of mine, which is to reach these number silver ounces on the books in old categories at Keno Hill. And our discovery rates continue unabated. It will take more than a cyclical downturn to convenience [convince] me that we’re not adding value by continuing to drill at Keno Hill”
Reading between the lines, this COULD sound like someone about to leave:
” … achieved a personal goal”
” … discovery rates continue unabated”
” … convince me we’re not adding value”
Good point; sounds a little defensive too.
I agree with you Brian. I like an explorer bias most of the time, but not in this case and not right now.
Brian you did mention the CEO stepping down a few days ago, but did you see the retirement cake we have planned for him? When you suggested it last time…….
On May 13, 2015 at 6:20 am,
wocsom morf knarF says:
Thanks, very interesting. Do you happen to know if there are many other shareholders that would like him to step down? Maybe he wants to retire.
On May 13, 2015 at 6:29 am,
Brian says:
The stock went fro US$10 to $0.25 – I’m guessing he does not have many supporters; however, he is an older gentleman, so perhaps it is retirement.
On May 13, 2015 at 7:04 am,
Shad says:
A valid point with the CEO Brian. Sometimes changing it up from the top down can get things moving, and sometimes it is a non-event.
On May 13, 2015 at 7:19 am,
wocsom morf knarF says:
In this case, I think Brian is right. It would be an event.
On May 13, 2015 at 8:24 am,
Shad says:
Well then if they do replace the CEO, I’m gonna bake a cake and put sparklers on it 🙂
On May 13, 2015 at 8:38 am,
wocsom morf knarF says:
Sounds tasty. The nitro cellulose, I mean. 😉
https://sp.yimg.com/ib/th?id=JN.Wvp1sfTY2tTB99%2b35fBEBw&pid=15.1&P=0
On May 13, 2015 at 9:14 am,
Shad says:
hilarious.
Thoughts:
Scorpio versus Klondex
Sheesh ! Do fundamentals matter any more?
Klondex has a VERY GOOD first quarter and the share price goes DOWN
Scorpio has a VERY BAD first quarter and the share price goes UP
Thank goodness I am now investing based on TA, because fundamentals make NO sense to me at all anymore
I didn’t think Scorpio had that bad of a first quarter. They have the one mine going, that other was moved onto care and maintenance (just like Alexco until there is higher silver prices), and they are fast tracking the new 3rd Slilver/Lead/Zinc mine.
Here is the 1st Quarter Update from Scorpio Mining:
They had a net net loss for the quarter, but they have been bringing their production costs down, and they’ll struggle below $17 silver, just like Alexco or Aurcana or Great panther or Magsilver, or many of the smaller silver producers.
If we get a pullback in metals prices and share prices in the summer, I’ll be adding to these small silver producers.
I do agree with you that Klondex had a nice report, it looks like people bought the rumor and sold the news. That happens often leading up to earnings reports, then the fall is right after when investors take profits.
I think that the news was simply already priced-in in both cases. Klondex was up 100% since November. The worst is now behind Scorpio while the best (short term) is mostly behind for Klondex.
Remember, markets are forward-looking, etc, etc, blah blah blah. 😐
agreed.
+11111111111111111111111111111
LPG
Hhhmmmm ….
Depends on how you define “fundamentals”, doesn’t it!
Brian, not advice of course but what I do is compare companies, how much do they produce? All things equal, money in the bank etc, what I find is companies producing say 100k oz gold per year are about the same price as companies producing 20k per year.
Even when there are fewer shares out for the larger producer.
Its probably an anomaly, you would think, except I did the same thing after the 09? crash, sure enough I found the same thing then too.
The market catches on and starts priceing as per peers, I noticed it doesn’t take too long to happen, but I have noticed 1 or 2 priced that way now.
Not investment advice but I believe Primero needs to be looked. The fundamentals and technicals seem to aligning.
Primero Mining is a great company with superb management. Those who were critical of the Brigus Gold acquisition will be proven wrong.
Thanks for your opinion.
Agreed WMK. I was a fan of the Brigus Gold acquisition, and that was a wise pickup for the Primero asset base moving forward.
I like Primero Doc. They’ve been getting more attention as of late, and several of the gold stock ETFs adjusted the weighting up in Primero over the last 2 years.
In GDXJ:
Primero Mining Corp PPP US 9,814,000 41,120,660 2.37%
In GDX:
Primero Mining Corp PPP US 11,207,276 46,958,486 0.72%
In the Sprott Fund SGDM:
PRIMERO MINING CORP PPP 2.42%
In the Sprott Fund SGDJ:
PRIMERO MINING CORP PPP 4.09%
Here’s a recent article of note from Zack’s on Primero:
Will Primero Mining (PPP) Continue to Surge Higher?
by Zacks Equity Research Published on May 08, 2015
(PPP)
As of late, it has definitely been a great time to be an investor Primero Mining Corp (PPP – Snapshot Report). The stock has moved higher by 14.1% in the past month, while it is also above its 20 Day SMA too. This combination of strong price performance and favorable technical, could suggest that the stock may be on the right path.
We certainly think that this might be the case, particularly if you consider PPP’s recent earnings estimate revision activity. From this look, the company’s future is quite favorable; as PPP has earned itself a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), meaning that its recent run may continue for a bit longer, and that this isn’t the top for the in-focus company.
PS – Doc if you see this, please check out the responses to you on your editorial with Chris T. or the Gary Savage links from Thursday on Torex and Golden Queen.
Thanks!
I love NUGT! I took profits at $12.62 for 11% earlier this month. Accumulating shares of JDST for the correction.