Doc’s time frame for gold
Doc provides us with his time frame on gold. He thinks that the price will rise near the tail end of the year however the big move is setting up for 2016.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Agree 100% with you.
Comex Gold Rises To A Near Record 107.7 Claims Per Registered Ounce …
What will happen when the music stop ?
Comex Gold Rises To A Near Record 107.7 Claims Per Registered Ounce
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3178896-the-real-reason-china-is-buying-up-the-worlds-gold#comment-53048786
If your comment is meaningful that there are 107.7 claims per registered ounce, you should consider that the ratio between paper SPY and real SPY is infinity.
You are making the fundamentally flawed assumption that you need a physical commodity to determine price. You do not.
It doesn’t matter how many physical ounces there are per claim. It can be 1 or 1000 or 107.7 or infinity and it simply doesn’t matter.
The purpose of commodity markets is not to trade commodities, it is to determine price. There are zero SPY physical contracts and the market works just fine.
It is nonsense.
What you are describing is a bucket shop, a betting parlor where the bets are the thing independent of anything else changing hands.
What you are saying is that price really has nothing to do with actual supply and actual demand for a physical thing.
Futures are derivatives, bets. They are wagers that are indicative of where professionals think that price is going. They began as a means of people who actually used and supplied things like commodities to lay of risk in the ‘future.’
It is in a broken system that these types of wagers can set price, for that is the tale wagging the dog.
Actually Gabriel, I was a commodities broker and part of the test is to ask the function of commodity markets. Every commodity broker understands you don’t need a physical product.
Futures are indeed derivatives, they derive their price from something real. But no matter if it a real ounce of gold or an imaginary block of shares, the purpose of the market is to determine price.
And they are not wagers indicative of what professionals think about price. You are not a professional, I can tell that, and you can trade gold or silver or the SPY. They are a means of determining price in the future and have worked that way for 6000 years.
It’s not a broken system, it’s existed in one form or another for a longer time than currency in any form. But to use it you have to understand it and you do not.
If you don’t need a physical share certificate for the SPY, why would you need it for gold?
The danger of derivatives are not that they are wagers, it’s the size of the market. The market is far higher than counterparts can back their bets and that is the flaw. A soon to be realized fatal flaw.
Some day, Marty!
It’s either this weekend or next.
And gold will drop like a rock.
1223
I know..
The black swan this weekend could nullify that close.
I’m looking for the washout starting next week.
Chartster……….just having some fun with you….but, what do you think about OPTION EXPIRY ….and maybe the wash out not happening until that time…..thank……FTBOOT
You have a valid point regarding the options. I’m thinking we are in the midst of a big game change this weekend. Everyone is long PMs. That’s when they get ya.
The black swan is real close.
OK let see if that channel works this time …
https://www.dropbox.com/s/1jawcljw70inuqq/XAU-15052015.jpg?dl=0
I love it how the physical guys get all huffy at the paper guys. Well, I own physical silver and gold. I also play the bull and bear side of the paper markets. Either you want to make $ or not. It won’t be made for you. Hence the reason why I am playing all 3 sides of the PM markets.
Jason: Everyone who owns physical gold or silver bought it with paper. There is no difference, they are fungible. The only difference is the price you are willing to take or to give. Physical and paper are exactly the same.
Saying that financial markets are manipulated is about as meaningful as saying the sun rises in the East. Well, duh?
Good point Bob M. – agreed.
I will not bother any further.
The futures market is not the market. It is a bet on the market.
The market is where things are actually exchanged from a supplier to a user.
The futures market is where the price is set for the market where things are exchanged. Futures markets have worked for 6000 years and they probably will continue to work for the next 6000 years.
We disagree. It’s that simple.
If you think paper gold is the same as real gold there is nothing I can say that will change your mind.
If you think all the paper gold can be converted into physical, then again, there is nothing I can say to change your mind.
A limited edition print of the Mona Lisa is not the real Mona Lisa, a cloned Shelby Cobra isnt worth as much a a 60 year old original, and a picture of a gun isnt going to save your life.
Paper gold exists beyond manipulation for one reason.
You are assuming that gold futures can or all should be converted into physical gold and it’s no more true of gold than it is of corn or wheat or any other commodity.
It’s not true. That isn’t how commodity markets work. Commodity markets exist to determine future prices. You can’t hand over gold for delivery in dec of 2017, you can only invest on what you think the price should be.
Excellent points Bob. Although I do also understand where Gabriel is coming from. Is a stack of photos in a Penthouse magazine the same thing as having a girlfriend or a wife? Does love equal lust? Is internet sex really equal to bedding down with the girl of your dreams?
Gabriel is just saying what many have said before him. He cannot accept that an *idea* or a concept can actually carry as much weight as the real thing. That’s the problem with the gold bugs too. They wan their money to have real physical value and object that dollars are really just symbolic of wealth.
But not wealth itself. It is what you do with those dollars that changes your life. It is about how you learn to trade and transact in the fiat of the day. I guess there is just a fundamental difference in thinking between the gold community and everyone else who intuitively accepts that paper and electronic currencies are just as powerful as physical gold that has intrinsic meaning.
Stone age meets modern man I suppose. Shall we barter or shall we actually trade?
Silver looking good , going into close……….and the weekend.
Actually, we’ll have the rally on our hands that I’ve been expecting for a long time.
Besides me and possibly Brian, I don’t think anyone here has been heavily on the right side since the miners bottomed in March.
you called…………. you da man………. ๐
I said all last week that I expected a pop in PMs this week but that I though it would be short-lived (2 weeks), and that the miners would fare better than the metals.
Next week or so, in my opinion, the party will dampen, and things may reverse when the dollar bottoms. My outlook is very similar to Doc’s at present.
but I do agree with Frank……you are da man…..:-)
I also was only 40% in my mining positions, so granted I was not all in.
This chart is looking like it will correct soon and send PM prices lower IMHO. I am glad it broke 70 and went down through its’ 200dma though.
That’s a good indicator but it is not at an extreme reading yet. If the GSR has finally made a long term top, as I think it has, then I don’t think things will play out like they did in June ’14. Instead, I think the ratio will be on its way to its first weekly chart oversold reading since April, 2011.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p04538288469
Btw Dan, thanks for bringing up Scorpio when you did! I picked up a lot near the low.
๐ ๐ ๐
Your welcome. I am hanging on to my core for two bucks. My average buy in is 21 cents. (;-)
I haven’t sold a share. Thanks to you, my average is more than 10% below yours! ๐ฎ
Yes Dan, I’ve been in an out of Scorpio since 2010, and never had anyone to discuss it with on here until you started posting charts. Also if you look down at some of our prior discussion, I even backed you up to Mathew when he was picking some up on March 26, but does WMK give me a nod…..Nooooo way. ๐
On January 21, 2015 at 10:14 am,
Dan, calgary says:
Looks like you will get another entry point soon in the gold stocks. I follow Timmins, Lakeshore and Argonaut and a few others. All are down today. I donโt fully understand gold so I keep selling my gold stocks too soon. Scorpio mining (silver, and I own some) is up a bit today once again on big volume.
http://www.scorpiomining.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=689056
On January 21, 2015 at 5:39 pm,
Shad says:
Scorpio mining just acquired US Silver & Gold Inc in a merger to add another mine and more exploration targets to its portfolio. There are a ton of companies that are drastically oversold at present, and Scorpio is one of them. While it does mine quite a bit of Silver, a large percentage of itโs silver equivalent credits are from Lead, Zinc, and Copper. This can be a blessing or a curse depending on the base metals markets, but Scorpio is more solid than many copies, has an income stream from its mines, just enhanced its portfolio of assets, and has barely moved up with the rise of Silver lately. This year is likely when it will get re-rated and should at least double or triple in the next 12-18 months.
On January 21, 2015 at 5:51 pm,
Shad says:
Scorpio Mining is SMNPF in the OTC markets, and yes I just bought more when this merger was announced, because I like small producers with an income stream, with a diversity of assets for exploration upside, and that has been beaten down because it was thrown out with the rest of the sector. That is the same reason I like Claude Resources in the gold mining space. Good luck to all.
On January 21, 2015 at 8:05 pm,
Dan, calgary says:
Thanks for your response, Shad, There is more shares outstanding but not really any dilution because of the combined values work out quite well. Maybe they will consolidate this year sometime.
On March 13, 2015 at 6:49 am,
Shad says:
Good thoughts on Alexco Matthew. It is one I have been watching for a while, but I had not seen that spike down and rally back up this week until you and some others pointed it out. I am going to keep an eye on it and may start a small position in it, but many silver miners are way down (Great Panther, Aurcana, Scorpio Silver, Endeavour Silver, Fortuna Silver). Hecla is probably still my favorite, but it has held up better.
On March 13, 2015 at 7:20 am,
Dan, calgary says:
I have noticed that someone bombs Scorpio at the end of most days. Volume has come down significantly as the sellers from the merger dry up. I own some.
On March 13, 2015 at 9:05 am,
Shad says:
Yes, I have noticed that Dan, and think a great deal of what happened recently was people selling that were part of the merger with US Silver and Gold. It is fairly typical that the company taking over another suffers a little in share price when a merger is announced and implemented, but that is mostly over now and they have a lower share price with even a better asset base and picked up another mine.
I do have a position in Scorpio (around $.19) that is just a little underwater since the merger. I was actually thinking of adding to that position just to average down a bit, because once the silver price recovers some they should be set up for a nice bounce. What has been helping them lately are their base metal credits.
I like Scorpio and donโt think theyโve been properly valued and went down with the sector, but hey, almost everything in the silver mining space is way undervalued. Just look at Endeavour or Aurcana or Great Panther.
On March 13, 2015 at 9:16 am,
Dan, calgary says:
Thanks Shad, I like Scorpio also and have owned them for 10 years off and on. I have seen them this low before and they have come back each time. I am in at about .21 so I may average down a bit too. I think the merger is a great deal for Scorpio and will be patient with this one.
On March 13, 2015 at 10:48 am,
Shad says:
Agreed Dan. I have owned them since 2010 and it has been a wild ride, but they usually deliver close to the guidance, have improved things every year, have lowered their costs, and with the merger now have more stability.
I could also see them getting taken out by a larger Gold, Silver, or even Base Metals producer at one point down the road.
On March 16, 2015 at 1:13 pm,
Dan, calgary says:
Wildcat Silver has an RSI of 17 and is making new yearly lows today on pretty big bottom. I donโt own any but it use to move with the silver price quite nicely.
Scorpio got bombed a bit again at the end of day.
On March 16, 2015 at 2:00 pm,
Shad says:
Hey Dan,
I am not very familiar with Wildcat Silver, but have seen it on different Silver lists.
As for Scorpio, yes, it has been getting hammered with most of the Silver stocks, and I have been waiting to average back in until I was sure all the merger and acquisition fallout was done. Tomorrow may be the day depending on the market reaction to the FOMC.
As for Silver these are the main companies I follow and either have, have had, or intent to take positions in during the bottom in pricing this summer…….
…6) Scorpio Silver โ Dan, I like them for a few reasons despite the rock bottom pricing: (a) Good deposits and mines, and they know how to work the mines to capitalize on the higher grade viens. (b) Base metal credits are very helpful to average out price swings in Silver (c) the have cashflow and are small producers so they can weather the pricing lows, and it makes them a potential takeover target (d) their recent takeover of US Silver and Gold was a smart acquisition, but nobody seemed to care and their price has declined during this phase, but again, that is normal for the company acquiring another. (e) They own a percentage of Scorpio Gold (I believe around 9%), and that company that they spun off a few years ago just paid off all itโs debt and will be cash-flowing soon.
On March 16, 2015 at 2:33 pm,
Dan, calgary says:
Thanks Shad, I own Scorpio and Argonaut and still own some Cangold (take over in progress by Great Panther. They share some of the some board members).
On March 16, 2015 at 6:11 pm,
Shad says:
Great point Dan. That is yet another Merger that was just announced recently for Great Panther to acquire Cangold. I think that will be a wise move for both companies, but I think it still requires the shareholder approval
It seems like the silver space has been more active in M&A activity than the gold market, but it is a healthy sign that these companies feel they are bottom fishing for quality assets or assets that consolidate land and resources under one umbrella.
On March 26, 2015 at 10:50 am,
Dan, calgary says:
That chart looks like a more dramatic Scorpio chart.
I own spm.
On March 26, 2015 at 10:55 am,
Matthew says:
Iโve been a buyer of Scorpio today and the last few days. I probably heard about it from you and donโt remember! ๐
On March 26, 2015 at 10:59 am,
Dan, calgary says:
Shad wrote up on it too. I brought it up but was quite unsure to the deal they recently did but Shad showed that it indeed has merit. Uhโฆ I hope. I am at a %5 to 10% loss but am happy to wait for the .30s
On March 26, 2015 at 11:06 am,
Matthew says:
Silver doesnโt have to do much from here for it to reverse sharply. I plan on holding it well past the 30 cent range.
Itโs like an โat the moneyโ call option.
On March 26, 2015 at 11:09 am,
Dan, calgary says:
Cool. It has been a $2+ stock before. I have always sold winners too soon so maybe this one I will hold on to.
On March 26, 2015 at 11:28 am,
Dan, calgary says:
I brought up a ten year/monthly chart on SPM and it is at a ten year low, close to where it has been twice before and both times it went to $2. I canโt bring the chart up here.
Wildcat Silver use to have very good leverage but no production. I recently picked some up.
On March 26, 2015 at 11:32 am,
Dan, calgary says:
Both Shad and I have noticed a late day seller of SPM many days. Definitely not trying to profit at the daily highs anyway.
On March 26, 2015 at 4:46 pm,
Shad says:
Thanks Dan. Yes we have had some good posts on Scorpio Mining in the past.
***Matthew, it is definitely worth having a position in it, as they have good mines, properties, exploration upside, and know what they are doing. I made a fortune on them in 2010 & 2011, lost a fortune in 2012, and re-established a long term position in 2013. I have recently taken a bigger position when I got the news of the merger with US Silver and gold, but should have waited a little longer after announcing the merger, because it is normal to have fallout for the company that is doing the acquiring.
This acquisition was a solid deal though, and good for both entities. The stock got hit hard when people could sell out after the conversion to Scorpio shares. Dan is absolutely correct that a large investor continued to slam the close down, wiping away the gains for the last 2 weeks, but I donโt expect that to continue much longer. This is a longer term hold for me though and I see a multi-bagger in this company. To me they are like the Silver version of Claude, where they have been overlooked, forgotten, and thrown out with the sector. Also, they own 9% of Scorpio Gold, who just paid off all their debt and will be cash flow positive by the end of this year. That is another sleeper, that will benefit the mother-ship Scorpio Silver.
Sorry everyone. I didn’t realize that was that long. I apologize in advance ๐
Wow Shad, good thing you already apologized… ๐
Ok, you get a nod too. I just instantly thought of Dan because I looked at it because he mentioned it (like Argonaut!) and liked it almost instantly.
It’s also nice of Dan to share the good stuff right AT their lows.
Please, sir, may I have some more?
https://sp.yimg.com/ib/th?id=JN.CsBVKUrInwv11oKaJCvSFw&pid=15.1&P=0
Thanks WMK. BTW I mentioned Scorpio specifically to you as a silver miner I was following on March 13th (before ya bought it), and then gave you an endorsement on the 26th when you bought shares.
As for Argonaut I also recommended that to you and everyone else several times. in Jan, Feb, and March. When you were purchasing it on March 13th I was giving you a thumbs up. Remember? Check it out broski:
On March 13, 2015 at 8:13 am,
Dan, calgary says:
I donโt own any Argonaut now but it is oversold IMHO and could finish bottoming soon.
On March 13, 2015 at 8:28 am,
Matthew says:
I also donโt own it right now but It looks very appealing. Do you happen to know of anything negative about it, because it looks like a bargain on paper.
On March 13, 2015 at 8:32 am,
Dan, calgary says:
I donโt know of anything new. Short position was 9% in Nov. and now it is 6% as of the end of Feb.
On March 13, 2015 at 8:41 am,
Matthew says:
Thanks, Iโm looking at their website now. They have a lot of exposure to silver, maybe thatโs whatโs holding the stock back. I just might have to buy some.
On March 13, 2015 at 9:28 am,
Shad says:
I have been watching Argonaut for year now, and I think it is a great buy. It is on my short list of companies I will be taking positions in later this spring. It went up too fast, and came down twice as hard as things tanked. Still it is a great value.
On March 13, 2015 at 9:54 am,
Matthew says:
Thanks Shad, I just bought some at 1.42 and will buy more.
WMK (aka Oliver Twist) ๐
If you want some more I love to share. The more people that are aware of quality companies, that steer clear of stinkers the better.
My favorite Silver companies are Hecla, Endeavour, Fortuna, First Majestic, Sierra Metals, and CFS has made me a believer in Mandalay Resources. I know you don’t like the bigger names though so we’ll go will smaller speculative silver.
We are in agreement on Scorpio and Alexco, but I’d add Avino Silver & Gold (ASM), Santacruz Silver (SZSMF), again Mandalay Resources (MNDJF), Kootenay Silver (KOOYF), Silvercrest (SVLC), Avrupa Minerals (AVPMF), Sabina Gold & Silver (SGSVF) Mines Management (MGN), Minco Silver (MISVF), Mirasol (MRZLF), Levon Resoruces (LVNVF), El Tigre Silver (EGRTF), Trevali Mining (TREVF) and the biggest silver underdog that will get re-rated at a higher silver price – Bear Creek Mining (BCEKF).
Aurcana (AUNFF) you are familiar with, and they’ve just had a series of blunders, but they have 2 good assets (both are mines – TX on care and maintenance). They did bring their costs down some, but didn’t have as good of numbers as in prior quarters. I do still have a small position in them that I averaged down into, because when silver prices improve, they will be doing fine and will put the TX mine back into production.
Here’s the first quarter press release for Aurcana FWIW:
There is a ton of information on the Wednesday May 13th Gary blog about Great Panther Silver (which I know you only kinda like) in the middle and the bottom in discussions with BB. Here is their 1st quarter press release:
I still really like Great Panther (GPL) and think they’ll go up 4-5 times where they are now at $.60 (US). They used to be up over $4 in the Silver mania 2011 period.
I don’t have the energy to do Gold companies, but I’ll throw out a few undervalued PGM stocks I own and may average down into:
Polymet (PLM) – big poly-metallic resource Base metals, Precious metals, and a nice percentage of PGMs. I believe they will JV or merge in 1-2 years.
Platium Group Metals (PLG) – building out infrastructure for the newest Platinum mine in S. Africa, but they have a nice Palladium credit, and a second property where they’ve been hitting some bonanza grade drill holes. They were loved, and now when they have made much more progress, got the permits, got the funding, and they’re building a mine….nobody loves em’….. that’ll change in the next 6-12 months.
Wellgreen Platinum (WGPLF) – A great management team came in an took over this resource, they changed the company name, and looked at it from the angle of not just the base metals, but the PGMs and precious metals. The property was always marketed as a base metal play, and it still is, but 20 years ago when those plans were made Gold/Silver/Platinum/Palladium were not at the levels they are now. I think a larger company like Stillwater, Vale, Rio Tinto, or someone will take them over for that asset. They’ve been drilling out a huge resource over the last 12 months, and nobody has noticed….yet.
Cheers mate, that is plenty to check out, and let me know if you see anything you like or don’t like in these suggestions ๐
Thanks for that list, Shad. I know those names but completely forgot about a few of them —even Mirasol, which I used to own!
I guess I don’t remember you mentioning AR. What got my attention was that comment of Dan’s that you found:
On March 13, 2015 at 8:13 am,
Dan, calgary says:
I donโt own any Argonaut now but it is oversold IMHO and could finish bottoming soon.
———-
Yes, I do see that you were on Scorpio right away with your opinion (which I agreed with), so thanks!
Cool beans….. Please let me know what you think of Mandalay Resources. CFS has made some excellent points about it a few times over the last few months. Here were some thoughts posted on Wed with Rick A.
On May 14, 2015 at 8:24 am,
Shad says:
Mandalay Resources Corporation Announces Financial Results and Quarterly Dividend for the First Quarter of 2015
On May 14, 2015 at 8:59 am,
CFS says:
I have Mandalay as one of my top miners:
P/E about 15 and dividend more than 5%โฆโฆ.not many beat that!
On May 14, 2015 at 9:23 am,
Shad says:
Yes, thanks CFS. I started following Mandalay Resources based on your recommendation and was impressed. I also noticed that it is the #1 most undervalued on Bill Matlackโs list of major and mid-tier silver producers.
CFS and I were “talking” stocks here quite awhile ago (maybe two years?) and that discussion led to the discovery of Mandalay. Although I had heard of it before then, I credit CFS for discovering its greatness. Now I own it.
Thanks WMK. It looks solid and undervalued to me, so I’m going to be looking for a good entry point. The dividend is a nice touch as well.
Not fully read yet but thought I’d share it anyway;
Financialsense.com
“The US Is NOT in Recession According to These 7 Charts”
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-puplava/seven-charts-us-not-recession
GL to all investing/trading
LPG
I have a hard time listening to or reading Puplava., since he called PEAK OIL back in 2006-7……I’ll read it but I would not trust it………jmho……California dreamer.
The kooks have been yelling peak oil since the 1970s. 40 years later we are finding new deposits, old wells are filling back up, and we now know that it’s made deep in the Earth. All the dinos did not die in one big heep and bury themselves in Saudia Arabia. There is biotic and abiotic oil. Google it. Also, you can’t destroy matter by normal means, only change its state. Your engine does not destroy oil, it changes its state to carbon and gas. It’s like taking legos aport. We, or the Earth, can put them back together. Just takes time or $$$ if you want it to happen faster. You can also make oil out of coal which the Earth does every day. Germans were doing it 80 years ago. The manipulators want you to think we are going to run out tomorrow so they can play their games.
Peak oil doesn’t say we are running out of oil, it says we are running out of cheap oil and is correct.
FFM,
FWIW, article is not from Jim.
Best to you,
LPG
THANKS……….LPG…………
Chris writes a lot of worthwhile commentary/analysis, in my opinion, but his Keynesian training is not hard to spot. Daddy Pup is better in that respect, but not by much.
Chris P…….uses a lot of charts from BLOOMBERG…to bad mouth zerohedge …I will have to think about concentrating on the info as stated…..JMHO
Speaking of zerohedge; the following is an article about the major strength indicator that I use in technical analysis; the ADX or average directional index. They talk about the numerical factor but there is something I’ve noticed that they don’t mention and that’s the “marriage” of both the +DI and the -DI as they plunge toward 0.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-15/stock-indicator-suggests-big-move-lower-coming
-DI TTO…………..+DI TTO …O hedge
Doc…..you need to talk to my partner……….wocsom morf knarF…….concerning charts and such………….
๐
Silver to gold ratio………….69 ……
Doc,
You said gold would be down to sideways in May, it was 1177 may 1 it now 50 points higher @ 1225.
The Bollinger bands got released and gold sprang higher…….. To THE moon….
GOLD CLOSED ABOVE 1223………NO WHAT…………
NO WHAT…..NOW WHAT
Hillary would say:
“No or Now”….
“What diiiiiiiiiiiiiiiifference does it make ????????”
๐
Best to you FFM,
LPG ๐
thanks LPG …… ๐
Ha!
‘well, cat; you’re correct. I got the first part of the month correct but not recently. No excuses—however, I still believe we stay in this channel for the rest of the summer. We’ll see if it plays out the rest of the way—-we’ll know in 2 weeks. Having said that we could reverse Monday and start moving down again and I could be correct yet. In fact, we closed today right up against resistance at the 50 week MA. Of course, I don’t want to be correct here since I would rather we see a move up yet next week since it would then give us cushion for June and July.
Frank; Al,Cory and I briefly kicked around the idea today of creating an interactive site where in real time we could throw up charts and interact with them and each other on a technical basis. We could annotate and discuss the variables—-I felt it was a fascinating idea. Those that were a part of it could give their input.
Why not………sounds good to me………….appreciate your thoughts…
I believe that many here would like to see that. Not the chatty guys though, just the charty ones. ๐
It certainly would help the “chatty guys” learn some charting if they wanted to learn.
+1 ๐
I agree but I think it could help us charty ones too! We all focus on different things, to some extent. Here’s an example of an indicator that not many seem to use: When the Bollinger Band leaves the Keltner Channel and price is in the upper half of the range, the odd of a rally are good. If the BB leaves the KC while price is in the bottom half, then there’s a good chance of a quick move down.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CRJ.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p33249180898&a=401953026
It works on weekly charts as well though I’ve usually acted before I get the signal.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=P.TO&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p95244751970&a=408390458
I’m charty and chatty and think that is a great idea Doc. Everyone can still learn a thing or two, and everyone has different experience levels. Collaboration and synergy come from working together, and not from isolation.
With you on that one, Shad, 100%
Interacting real-time on a virtual space dedicated to technicals is confusing to me….
๐
๐
๐
All have a good WE
LPG
Ha! I like that smiley totem pole in response to doing TA in a real-time virtual space.
๐
๐
๐
;-(
You forgot two:
๐ฎ
๐
+8
I don’t know how to do those two WMK.
@)
sign of the Cyclops
$) – Sign of the Banker
%)… sign of a cross eyed banker or real estate broker that wants part of the action.
? ).. sign of a politician , on how much of a take can I make.
+/- ) Sign of the Hedge Fund – winning big; losing big
[#] sign of a chest match, check mate……… ๐
๐
MARKET ALERT!!!
250k GLD shares bought up to 4 cents form previus on after merket. Huge volume!!!
GOLD GOING HIGHER ON MONDAY…………
1225 MAGIC NUMBER
Getting ready for a body slam ……..OPTION EXPIRY………think ahead….. jmho
WHERE IS MARK…………
Doc, I would like to know about charting a great idea. What do you all think about TLTFF.
We might get a little run here. The first of next week should tell the story short term. Long term, I’m personally a holder—-they have their next generation of physical therapy light source products coming out in the future—that shouldn’t drive the stock appreciably. The big elephant in the room is their anti-cancer PDCs and we won’t know the real story on those results for at least 11/2 years. However, periodically you will have news come out on the stock which should bump it a little. The point is that this is a stock that you’ll have to hold for some time in order to get an excellent return and that’s only predicated on whether they achieve the results they hope for. I have to say they’ve assembled some influential hospitals and physicians on this project so that’s an good sign.
Thanks Doc
Well this is a convenient coincidence; Adan Hamilton just backed up my recent opinion that investment demand is what really moves silver. He said: “…Silver investment’s relatively small slice of that demand pie implies it isn’t important, but nothing could be farther from the truth…. And since any market’s prices are effectively set by marginal new buying and selling, nothing is more important for silver prices than investment demand.”
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton051515.html
As cash becomes outlawed across the world as governments hunt taxes I firmly believe gold and silver will be hoarded as cash becomes scarce.
Gold and silver have never been an inflation hedge. They have been a protection against governments. Martin Armstrong has pointed this out numerous times.
This time though gold will be contraband as gold police hunt as the populace becomes more and more suspicious of government intentions. When they can stop bank runs with a cashless society they can also tax every transaction.
History has always shown that gold and silver become the currency of the underground economy.
They w
To Bob, Jason, Shad
Futures are derivatives, bets. They are wagers that are indicative of where professionals think that price is going,
should be going, given a set of known and unknown factors with certain assumptions and other factors, including fraud and gaming the system with bluffs, etc.
These types of futures markets began as a means for people who actually used and supplied things like commodities to factor in the risk
in the ‘future’ and to essentially spread the risk around.
The ‘futures market’ is not the market. No derivatives market is the market. It is a reflection of THE market, and that reflection
or representation varies in its quality and efficiency from market to market and over time. This is why we have rules and regulations and enforcement.
A derivatives market is a creature of risk arbitrage, and leverage, and it is a reliable indicator of price to the extent that risk is correctly perceived
and priced, leverage managed, and these exchanges are REGULATED against the short term gaming that speculators are often wont to do.
The notion that the paper markets can set prices as they will without regard to risk or leverage is a not uncommon assumption
held by those in the pursuit of unearned wealth. That is why we have market crises and crashes.
Commodities are different than stocks, because a stock is itself a derivative wager, a share in the future profits, dividends, and losses of a company.
How can any broker fail to know that? Pretty basic stuff.
That is the difference between buying bullion and a mining stock. A futures contract is a promise to buy and sell a thing at some future date.
It is not the thing itself, but it is based on the promise that you CAN do what you say you do.
But it is not always just a matter price to someone who might really wish to have the thing with they think they are purchasing.
It is the same mindset that Kyle Bass calls out in his video below about the Comex about why he chose to take delivery of his gold out of a sense of fiduciary responsibility.
Yeah I agree with most of what you posted Gabriel, and try not to get too hung up in the semantics. I think the point Bob M. was making is that futures contract by their nature are to decide what a fair price will be at set future point based a number of criteria.
You are correct that a futures contract is an option to but or sell something at a future date, but that doesn’t mean that they have to be converted into that object or that you have to take delivery. Most people never do and just trade the paper, and he was making the point that SPY is a similar concept. Bot also brought up futures contracts in corn or soybeans as an example of how the futures contracts are there to determine price, and are not always about actually taking delivery of the asset.
I do think the quadrillion dollar derivative markets are a juggernaut house of cards that will unravel at one point because there is not enough to back the paper positions. Bob had a good point when he said:
“The danger of derivatives are not that they are wagers, itโs the size of the market. The market is far higher than counterparts can back their bets and that is the flaw. A soon to be realized fatal flaw.”
I think it is important to reference where the market thinks the price is going in the futures market as a key indicator of where support and resistance are. I don’t typically trade them directly (I have in the past), but by utilizing certain ETFs do so by default.
Good luck to you in your investing Gabriel. I think you make a lot of great points on the blog and bring up some interesting points on a daily basis. Keep it coming my good man! ๐
The head of the CFTC thought that derivatives were totally out of control in 1998 when they were $60 trillion. They are $710 trillion today according to the BIS on a world economy of $70 trillion. It doesn’t matter about manipulation or conspiracies or New World Order or JPMorgan, if you walk into a casino with a trillion dollar check and want to bet on shooting dice for one roll, the casino will take the bet and all you can do is lose because no matter how the dice play out, no casino in the world can pay out a trillion dollar bet. The size and size alone is what guarantees derivatives have to fail. All else is smoke and mirrors.
Futures markets are to set prices, not deliver products. That’s how it works with the SPY and how it works for gold. Anyone talking about naked shorts or paper gold simply does not understand the purpose of futures markets. It’s a zero sum market, one buyer and one seller.
You can use your head and think for yourself. If you need to, cheat and use a calculator. Scam artists like Ted Butler are running around saying stuff like JPM bought 350 million ounces of silver so they could tank the price. Is he insane? If anyone bought 350 million ounces, the price would go up. You can’t make prices go down by buying stuff.
GREAT COMMENTS GUYS………………….
Good thoughts Bob.
Bob,the British bought up all available silver in China and India in order to destroy the silver standard by controlling price.The control of silver and then gold -monetary metals-have been the linchpin of global( fiat )SUPREMACY for both the UK and America.
That’s one of those things that may be true but I’m not sure it really means anything. When you can no longer maintain a tie between currency and your commodity money, you simply break the link. That’s what the Brits did with silver in WW I and the US did in 1933 and 1964 and 1971. Individuals couldn’t own gold after 1933, we took silver out of coins in 1965 and came totally off gold internationally in 1971. In all cases, the link was broken but supply and demand drove the price far higher. Fiat continued but wasn’t worth much. Governments hate anything that removes their ability to steal and that included gold, silver and accounts outside their control. Now they want to outlaw cash. As with all the prior examples the markets are far bigger than any government and will determine price.
Bob,
Hope all’s well.
You shall know by now I have a high degree of respect for your views – I often agree with them, FWIW.
However, I disagree with your last statement: “you can’t make prices go down by buying stuff”. First of all, and I’ll pass quickly on this obvious point: let’s not forget that for every buy order, there’s a sell order.
It seems the point being made by some people re: JPM and silver is that JPM is pushing the price down to accumulate silver. Personally, I don’t care about who says that (Butler or whoever else)…
What I do believe though, is that it is possible to achieve such an outcome.
When big size come into play, this is what successful trading is about. This is not merely an opinion I am giving: this is an observation based on markets participants’ behavior.
As an example, let’s look at a successful trader back in the days: Paul Tudor Jones (for anyone who hasn’t seen it, I suggest watching the documentary about him on Youtube).
When PTJ wanted to buy something in big size on some pits, he couldn’t do it openly as other traders were scrutinizing him. So sometimes, he would have his floor trader on the pit start with a Sell orders… and when everyone joins in and start to sell in masse (coz they see him sell), he would all of a sudden order his floor trader to buy as many contracts as he can.
RINCE, REPEAT.
It seems Rick Ackerman was a trader on a pit at some point, so I’m sure he has seen many of these behaviors occurring with his own eyes.
It seems to me that type of behavior is POSSIBLE in the silver market because it is difficult for market participants to assess the level of physical silver owned by any entity… So in simple terms, there’s a lot of “mystery” about who owns what. If there was no mystery about who owns what… they maybe after a while, market participants would be able to realize who is accumulating what…
I am not saying here JPM has been able to successfully accumulate a big stash of silver: I have no clue. I am merely saying that I believe it is absolutely possible.
And let’s not forget that with the help of algos etc… sometimes, it is not exactly difficult to create a chain reaction in one direction for the market, just to be on the receiving end with open arms.
It might not be always successful, but again, I believe it is possible to achieve such outcomes, and again, it seems to me that the history of trading tend to prove that this, indeed, can be achieved.
Best to you,
LPG
Shad, Whew you have quite a stock list, I like to concentrate on 3 or 4 picks at a time but no more, I think you and Matthew are great reads and many of us here would agree, of your stocks one that I am interested in is Wellgreen, I just thought I would mention that. DT
Thank you DT.
Yes, I have about 40-45 stocks at any one time with a primary position in only 6-12 at a time, and re-balance the weighting often as the dynamics change. This limits my gains at times, but also diversifies my risk. This is why GDXJ or SILJ have about 40 stocks, but I like to do my own weighting, so it is like my own ETF.
I have a small position in Wellgreen currently, and was thinking of adding more shares at these levels to average down (as it turned south a little on me recently). WGPLF is one I am holding, even if we get the PM washout, because it is already washed out. That resource they have is amazing, and all it took was a good management team to shake up the process and look at the data & economics differently.
Here is the link to their corporate presentation…..very intriguing:
http://www.wellgreenplatinum.com/pdf/Wellgreen_Platinum_Corporate_Presentation.pdf
Located in the Yukon Territory, Canada, the Wellgreen project has the potential to become one of the worldโs largest and lowest cost open pit producers of platinum group metals (PGMs) and nickel. The Wellgreen property is accessed from the paved Alaska Highway leading to deep sea ports south of the project in Alaska.
My favorites are slide 14 and slide 28 on that Wellgreen Platinum presentation.
Thanks Shad.
Doc,
What is your thought on Xon as I remember you compared it with Apple of biotech? Why it is going down after earning?
Trade; fundamentally, they appear to be tracking as expected. Technically, they’ve got ahead of themselves. On the daily chart, they were about 100% above their 200 day MA when they hit their high price beginning of March. On the weekly chart they were the same % above the 50 week MA. The PE is high and technically the MAs have to move up to meet pricing or pricing has to move down to meet the MAs or a combination of the two. If expectations meet reality going forward this consolidation period should end when the technicals converge.
Thanks Doc.
Also, Trade; if we get a general stock selloff, you can bet high PE stocks like xon will have their heads handed to them just as everyone else. These high PE stocks are very vulnerable even though their earnings are growing quickly. On the recent conference call, the CEO said they were tracking with their results and business plan as expected.
I wonder what SD is doing these days you know how he likes owning the physical but I don’t know where that leaves him if he’s collecting blue gold.
CS gives his opinions on why JPM may have accumulated that 350 million oz..
Charles Savoie also gives examples of the two times the U.S. Treasury directly suppressed silver prices:
The Silver Purchase Act of 1934 and Franklin Rooseveltโs executive order 6814.
http://srsroccoreport.com/silver-squelchers-series-update/silver-squelchers-series-update/
In the case of silver and the global silver standard,Britain broke the standard by controlling price. Savoie documents that in his ‘Silver Stealers’ ,along with the price the world paid for Britain and America’s fiat reign that followed.
The gold price still rests & remains in the hands of the paper traders. The key word going forward is UNTIL, meaning when China and to a lesser extent Russia have had their fill of Western Central Planning and state between them alone they have in excess of 20K tons and make their own public declaration of what the price is going to be going forward. At that time the West will either have to put up or shut up about their reserves,whether that happens around the Shemitah in mid September or in 2020, it’s coming!