The dollar and gold are moving up… will it continue?
Gary starts off this week with a focus on the US dollar and gold. Both are moving up to start the day and this may continue for a few more days.
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Could be, but it could also be due to this breakout…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p18051248074&a=392072920&listNum=1
…which, in turn, could be due to silver’s action lately.
It was up as much as 115% from its low just two months ago. I’m glad i was an aggressive buyer (best fill was .2605). 😮
Way to go wocsom!
Do I need to bake the cake with sparklers yet for the CEO scenario in Alexco?
Let’s wait for 500% before we spring for such an extravagance. 😉
Hilarious!
Al, your weekly letter recommended Midway gold lat fall when it was over 70 cents. Today it sank to 4 cents before rebounding to 10 cents. Is it going under? Did you ever put out a sell? I’m a bag holder once again.
Happy Victoria Day!
Sorry to hear that Bonzo. I never read that letter so missed the recommendation. Any idea what happened? Is that one of Doc’s calls?
I think it was all 3 of them, and I think it was last October or Nov. They never mentioned it again. I had already bought MDW at .64 before they recommended it @ .74, so I can’t blame anyone else. If MDW doesn’t go under, and they think their bankers will work with them, they are very undervalued.
Please let me know what newsletter that was in Bonzo. I really don’t remember that one.
Thanks,
Big Al
You must do your own charting and due diligence, Bonzo. Never rely upon what anyone else says no matter what tack record they have. When I hear a tip on a gold stock the first thing I do is check the charts for myself and then look at the company financials. But even those are not enough to make a buy decision sometimes. especially in a bear market. There is always more to it than meets the eye….
Here….read this excellent little article from Trader Dan. It is well worth your time. He had it originally posted for subscribers-only earlier in the week but has decided to open it up to the public. Humility is a tough one (I know it is for me anyway) when dealing with emotions. But losing money on a trade is even harder.
Dealing with Losing Trades — May 17, 2015 — Trader Dan Norcini
http://traderdan.com/?p=4678
Bonzo,
If you don’t mind waiting a year for a payoff, try Mickey Fulp.
Of course there are those companies that make money at 7-$800 gold that could pay off in that time too. Heck, some pay dividends while you wait.
As I have said many times in the past. Mickey is truly an interesting guy!
Was that a recommendation from Doc?
Based on weekly closes, GDXJ has not yet broken out.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=W&yr=2&mn=3&dy=0&id=p57542484410&a=408648835
WMK – GDXJ did pull back some this morning, but didn’t fill the Gap up on Wednesday. It did surge to over $27 dollars though and has come back some. Do you expect it to still pull back to the $25.80 area before running higher?
Based mostly on the 1 and 2 hr charts of gdxj and gld, I think the odds are pretty good that we’ll get the pullback. But that doesn’t mean it will happen tomorrow. We might have to go a little higher first.
The dollar is done in my opinion. It might bounce enough here to give us a droopy right shoulder of a two-headed H&S pattern, but I don’t think it can muster much more.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=W&yr=1&mn=7&dy=28&id=p65341590398&a=408672053
The US$ action will be influenced this week by CPI and the Fed minutes, both dovish and $ will test 89.50 the next layer below this key 93.50 zone, both hawkish and 97 will be first resistance on way to the key 100 level
Even if both are hawkish, I do not see a new high coming. It’s “sell the rally” time.
Good thoughts Original JJ. We’ll have to see when the dollar will put in the mid-term bottom, and I’ve waiting on 92 for the greenback since the beginning of April when I realized it was not going to move higher at that time. That is where I had projected the USD would make a bottom and turn, but if it gives way then I wouldn’t think it would go much lower, but wouldn’t rule out $89.50.
I agree with Gary that if the dollar turned last Thursday/Friday, then that wasn’t as harsh of a correction as was expected, and this will limit the strength of the rebound. Personally, I’m still thinking the dollar has a little further to drop before starting to head higher, and as stated at the end of last week, I think we’ve still got a little further to run with PMs and the miners.
Good luck to all in their investing in these wild markets!
There are some very intelligent people I respect that feel the dollar will not get back up to test the 100.39 March 11 and March 13th highs. I am still in the camp that it will try to take out these highs and possibly go higher in the late summer/early fall (capped around 110). In general I agree with Gary’s outlook he shared on the blog today; however, based on a number of charts I am seeing in the investment world, there is some solid reasoning that the March highs in the dollar were the blow off top. I’m just not sold on that idea quite yet, but do think the dollar is in definite trouble on the global scene and it’s days are numbered.
The other key thing I am watching is for oil to get just a little higher up to the $64-$66 range. This is where I expect it to turn, and think this will be dollar index at 92.
My first resistance target in Gold is $1238-1239 (specifically 1238.20) and has been for 2 months, but we have a good chance of taking that out in the near future. Next resistance is $1252.30, then $1280 is a more serious ceiling. Doc’s call for $1255 seems the most plausible to me and is very close to that $1252.30 target I have.
Actually, let me back up and say that the first resistance I’ve wanted to see Gold take out was $1221-$1222 and it has, and then the secondary resistance at $1225. Those are both bullish for the metal, but I’ve been waiting for $1239 to be taken out to the upside in Gold since March, and it looks like we may be getting close to making that happen. $1252.30 is the target I’d watch carefully for a top in Gold if we do take out 1239.
Man, I wish I understood what you guys are talking about. Thank God for Doc!
Shad- you read Hubbartt on 321gold last Friday..
Thanks Agatha. I’m going to watch his video win a minute. Shad, here’s the relevant chart:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt051515/gdxj_first_target.png
Thanks WMK – that seems to be in alignment with expected snapback in GDXJ to $25.80 and then a surger higher up towards 30 in the mid-term.
Definitely food for thought.
Hey Agatha – No I hadn’t but just went and checked out all the charts he posted. Much appreciated, and here is the link to Hubbartt’s Friday post:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt051515.html
Very interesting perspectives & charts on the trajectory for Gold, Silver, the dollar via UUP, GDX, GDXJ, SLV, SIL, Aurico, Kirkland Lake, Great Panther Silver, Lake Shore Gold, McEwen mining, and Oceana Gold.
Very interesting perspective on the dollar, the PMs, and a few nice miners.
Thanks!!
Gary, I see on your blog that you have posted your YTD % returns.
Congratulations! I’m sure a big part of your 120% return was using the 3X etfs.
Everyone who has a paid subscriber service should post their Q1-2-3-4 results, back up your ego with results!
Well done Gary!
Good job, Gary.
I completely agree with you original!
Bonzo,
Doc is never wrong. He was just nibbling
Bonzo asked a good question though. Where was the sell recommendation?
That is the key area that almost every buy-analyst cannot seem to overcome. There is just never enough skepticism in metals markets and no plans to get out alive where the optimists are concerned. You really need a parachute strategy for everything you add to your list.
Btw Bonzo, what on earth made you hold on so long while it was falling? Was it optimism, blind faith or just hope? That makes no sense to me. Just dump the dogs if they go sour and buy something else.
First rule of investing……don’t LOSE money!
I find that very odd, if one knows how to read a chart, what the market is telling you about stock xyz then you should have sold your position at a small lose instead of it becoming dead money. EVERTHING must be traded
I agree. I cannot fathom what rationalization would have caused Bonzo to buy at .70 and then refuse to sell that dog even after it fell all the way down to 4 rotten cents. For a lot of people a nickel loss would have been more than enough to call an exit. And a 50% decline would be shouting “what the hell are you drinking, man!”……..Especially with miners being so unreliable for the most part.
Had a look at MDW chart .68 was the support zone that needed to hold, when it fell, sell…!!!
I’ll take your word for it. I never looked. I was really dumbfounded about why someone would hold a bad trade so long. And yet I have heard this same story so many times now its not even funny. I actually knew a guy who made his million (more actually) on Nortel and then held the stock right to the bloody bottom. All I could say to him was “what the f””k were thinking!!!! ….but he just had this crazy idea it would go back up and he would see glory days again.
JJ…people are really weird sometimes. They can be so obsessive and obtuse.
Bird, the dotcom days are another great example that investing off the chart is the only way to survive, the whole world was bullish yet so many tech stocks were rolling over, using the charts one would have kept their winnings vs investing off the opinion of the experts, you could have traded Nortel al the way to “0”
The gold top is no different regardless of the experts suggesting $2000 was a done deal $1840 was a sell until $1620
(OT) Matthew/Alexco
Do you think this +35% move might be the new CEO scenario?