Doc says there needs to be some de-leveraging in a couple of sectors
Doc takes a look at the drop today in commodities sector but also mentions that the conventional markets need to experience some de-leveraging as well.
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That’s an ugly chart.
Doc today is options expiry for gold and its been a typical area of gold weakness, if yen, euro and $ were flat I’d look at golds action today as a possible buy but if the currency markets are going to pile on yen and the euro we could get some ugly reaction in gold and silver. The euro has no support now that the key 110.30 fell until 105.40 suggesting 100 $ is a target again
“OPTION EXPIRY………….THAT IS WHY IT IS DOWN BIG……Smack down on option expiry, collect commissions and start over again….been true for several months, true again…………………..Mark noticed it first several months ago……..
You DWTI guys are killing my UWTI position!
It does not matter if it is gold positive or not. The price of gold as you all know it is all about paper trades imposing a fictional price on physical transactions. The existing price is a fiction. Some think the metals are insurance and some an investment. In reality they are money and the honest trading of them for fiat is a FOREX transaction. Such a trade would be total global currency divided by total real ounces of refined tradeble bullion of either gold or silver and no GSR. This is an exchange rate. Since we have a market controlled by a small group of people with an agenda we can not consider market prices for precious metals to be legit because the prices are based on politically correct opinion instead of an exchange rate derived by mathematical calculation.
I’d be all over a June-July rally, but I will trade off the chart and not the suggestion.
Worth the read, last summer repeat?
Doc COT on silver, better hope these guys don’t puke! we all know what happened off $50, breakdown below is from Norcini
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50830.html
The number of OUTRIGHT LONG positions held by the Hedge Fund category is the largest I have on record. It is so large, it actually exceeds the number this category was holding back when silver was trading closer to $50!
Hedge funds aren’t exactly the smartest traders in the room, but then….neither are the banks 🙂
yah well I’m border line illiterate, shallow, ignorant, an ego maniac, have no integrity and I’m a buffoon, according to the highly educated, guru experts and chart specialists here
What I struggle with is the fact I see a sell off for some of the PM stocks into June—if that occurs, I ask myself what that means for the PMs themselves.
Doc, I don’t go there with my thinking when the indicators I use turn I don’t ask questions the 1 indicator I place on the charts here is just one of 6 that I use, I show only the one to show those who pisss on us who make our living off the charts how one can always be on the profitable side of the swing.
When a turn happens nobody knows if this will turn into a major sell off or a few day event so until they turn I ask no questions, keeps the headaches away!
Original, interesting. The comment about wondering about what will happen with gold if the stocks sell off as I expect doesn’t concern me either as to my position in some of them and the fact I’ll be able to purchase some I’ve wanted to purchase at lower prices as well as add to the positions of the ones I already hold and like.
Doc,
Basically we have to be open to all the possibilities that could occur.
That’s why I like your content so much. Your take is a very level-headed approach to the markets and you clearly understand our limitations as individual investors.
In short, your very flexible and that bodes well for your potential future profits.
V
Vortex, I appreciate your comments—-I love technicals since they don’t allow me to be dogmatic. I’ve learned over the years that you get burned when you think you’re smarter then the markets and the charts.
Just to jump in here Doc and Vortex….but technicals are not enough. The reason is that they are in essence mathematical and as a result are ideally suited to being front-run by computer driven market models. How many times have we seen technical set-ups that look exactly like they could go in either direction for example? And that (I beleive) is an outcome of computers running the charts rather than the charts informing the markets. We need a deeper understanding of what is taking place. That happens on another level altogether. I think in the future that charting and technical analysis will fall into disrepute as people learn they can not play successfully against machines and code that is capable of manipulating the charts to their advantage. So while today what we see is action mostly reactive to established TA patterns I am now getting the sense that technical patterns are possibly even being created to send an illusion to markets that are preferred by those with better tools and capabilities. We need to be cautious. All is not as it appears and too many times recently I have witnessed patterns that simultaneously send two distinctly different messages. It is all in the math and the picture that materializes sourced from the algorithmic trading activity that takes advantage of dumb systems who fall prey to certain set-ups.
Excellent points Bird, its called painting the chart and without doubt at times those that can move the markets do so to prevent a key level from taking place on the chart knowing full well the market is focused on that area.
The ECB made dam sure the Euro$ was to start its decent off a key level at 125 late last year, it doesn’t matter to me that’s the area they defended as the trend they created provided great % returns for those trading off the charts.
The market the Central banks have created has removed fundamentals from many sectors
JJ..you left out one….
Sorry to hear about your loss Gator, Marty can help you:
Try to open your mind and be like a trader just following the trend and the capital flows. The market is always right – it cannot be wrong. Only we are wrong for when the market does something we did not anticipate our analysis is at fault – not the market.
What loss is that JJ…no loss on my end…my mind is open and I see you clearly for what you are…someday your ego will be tamed and you can begin acting like a congenial educated trader..don’t waste your talents on a run away ego…rather listen, evaluate and advise..it will get you a lot of peace of mind…
JJ,
I don’t have to tell you this can be an intolerant rough crowd on most days and somewhat better on others. In its basic demeanor its just a carbon copy of the greater modern human condition as you might expect.
Some folks here can disagree with you and still hold a respectful conversation. Others who hear an opposing view turn every word you write into a personal grudge match of philosophical disagreements and act as if you s**t on their dinner table. Its actually quite remarkable what we so called adults will do at times.
Just continue to do what you do, provide excellent trading and chart content, give your general market views on any given day and just skip over the argumentative nonsense.
I have always enjoyed opposing views from the non-hardcore gold community and I don’t suspect I will change my mind on that anytime soon. I like the give and take of information flow.
I find it empowering and informative, not derogatory or inflammatory.
Take care
V
V, the gold bugs are the worst as they are always right about everything or so they so desperately try and convince everyone so, they worship the same sleaze balls that have completely called the markets wrong for years and have such a hate on for those that highlight that fact, I guess the old saying misery loves company holds true
I really don’t think there is any other sector in the market place with so many sheeple than the pm’s sector, really bizzaro!
Its like they buy fire insurance for their house and they hope it burns down, or hope the worlds financial markets collapse or the US$ goes to zero so that they can scream we were right golds $12000 an oz, well enjoy your gold living in Armageddon.
I’d rather just make money off decent price swings and leave the doom and gloom to the nut jobs
JJ,
Just so you know I’m a gold-bug, but like Bob M, I’m not a gold-nut. Gold is an insurance policy to me, not a religion like it is with most.
To say that the greater PM community has some quirky and perplexing attributes that are hardcore “fighting words” beliefs is an understatement.
Just roll with it, because you won’t change any minds and the blood pressure spikes are not worth the agitation.
V
Agree V thanks for taking the time, appreciate
Have a look at the chart I posted for Doc at the bottom here – Dow Transports
Seems to me we are running low on gold bugs lately. I mean the crazy camp bugs. Hardly a peep out of them lately. That’s what a few years of price declines will do I suppose. For the most part it is the more serious traders and long term holders who still post here. I notice the traffic is way off on the hard-core sites too and the regulars have gone away. Whacko gold theories and government conspiracy stuff is getting thinner on the ground lately too. But I imagine they will all be back as soon as gold rises or the stock market cracks. Like you jj, I don’t have a lot of love for that crowd because they have such a distorted perspective and are often so hostile to all others who talk gold.
Btw…good post Vortex
Thanks Bird, always a pleasure.
V
I have a feeling that as we move down with the PMs that silver may hold its’ own better then gold.
The Aden sisters agree with you about silver
The thin edge of the wedge perhaps? Has a tax on cash arrived via the ATM machine? Well if you are the Greek FinMin Varoufakis that is exactly the plan. Ostensibly the idea is to slow cash withdrawals from Greek banks. But I suspect it will also raise some needed tax revenue while subtly shifting people away from the use of cash transactions and into more easily tracked card based transactions. One of the big issues in Greece these days is rampant tax evasion and a sure fire way to stem that trade is to get everyone making payments by card. Thus is born the idea to add a tax on cash withdrawn from an ATM and in effect stifle the use of cash itself. Presumably this would be in addition to the banks regular surcharge on individual withdrawals from the machines they helpfully place on sidewalks and in malls. But it really makes you wonder if such an idea would be adopted elsewhere. A direct tax on W/D’s is not so different in some ways than the Abbot governments idea to tax savings.
Greece Postpones Meeting With Creditors, Denies ATM Tax
(Denial is the first step in acceptance)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-26/greece-postpones-meeting-creditors-denies-atm-tax
I might be buying some NUGT tomorrow. Over-sold, MACD crossed over, but very weak W formation on the 3, 5, and 10 day 15 minute charts. Not going to try after hours. Gonna wait and see what the overnight chart does. Hoping for lower. My buy range will be $10.48 to $10.98, unless I can get in lower tomorrow.
Jason
I started buying blocks of JNUG today, to average in. Might get near $20 if the 1180 is breached for a while.
Brian I assume you have stockcharts, put up every indicator they offer, do any suggest buying JNUG
We disagree. You think charts are everything;
I think charts are part of analysis (TA, FA)
Good luck to you both!
Bird,
here is that book I mentioned yesterday. I think it best that you just buy it if there are not any quality English library’s out where you are.
Graeber might not be palatable for those who are completely brainwashed into the “hard money” philosophy, but a fascinating subject nonetheless. The title is Debt: The First 5000 Years. I just ordered it from the library.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Graeber
Thanks. I am still looking for an online copy (no libraries around these parts). I thought some of the ideas the writer mentioned were pretty interesting. For example I would agree credit most likely came before money which makes perfect sense to me and that money evolved somewhat spontaneously as a solution to keep account of credit.
Confused, at least you disclose that you’re confused. Sadly, FAR more people are brainwashed by the socialist’s “it’s ok to steal” philosophy.
I don’t think he’s confused. It’s just another viewpoint. Anyway, its got my interest. We cannot allow ourselves to be locked into just one way of thinking. Mises was not the only one that theorized about money so other ideas can get some air now and then.
Trust me, he’s confused.
MARK WHERE ARE YOU………NEED SOME COMMENTS ON ………OPTION EXPIRY….
Its nothing new frank its been going on for many, many years any who trades the pm’s is aware of the game
JJ… your ego is on display again. . time to reign it in …. see my above post in reply to your disappointing answer… time will eventually educate you to the ways…..
Better to be right than wrong when investing ones hard earned money, you should try it, you might actually enjoy it. I could careless what your above posts says (really Mat I don’t) as what value have you ever added here?
Sorry its fact, the option boyz have been attacking gold and silver on the expiry dates for years, nothing new, has nothing to do with ego and everything to do with knowing the market I trade, novel approach isn’t it, you should try it.
Try to open your mind and be like a trader just following the trend and the capital flows. The market is always right – it cannot be wrong. Only we are wrong for when the market does something we did not anticipate our analysis is at fault – not the market.
Sorry to disappoint you Frank but I have very strict guidelines to any losses I take which allows me to stay in the game.
You didn’t write this down did you, well before your happy face ends up your own A** you should, have a great day!
Try to open your mind and be like a trader just following the trend and the capital flows. The market is always right – it cannot be wrong. Only we are wrong for when the market does something we did not anticipate our analysis is at fault – not the market.
OJJ………..YOU TEND NOT TO SHARE ALL YOUR WISDOM UNTIL SOMEONE ELSE COMES UP WITH THE FACT….,…..What a joke………… 🙂
MARK……..was the FIRST TO MENTION TO NON TRADERS , what was happening in the OPTION EXPIRY each month……….Thanks to MARK, credit goes to those who credit is due………………………..JUST SAYING…… 🙂
YOU will GO DOWN as……..SWING TRADER…..of which we will tip our HAT to you…… 🙂
Frank, great you pat mark on the back all you want, whoopee!
The smack down during gold and silver options expiry has been a game played for years there was a time during the bull run when Central bank announcements of their selling was a perfect buy zone AND option expiry as well, I know because I was a buyer, its nothing new to those who TRADE the pm’s markets, sorry, its a fact, sorry to pee on marks parade not my fault
NO Problem OJJ…….. YOU ARE A TRADER…….some are just LONG TERM INVESTORS
Whoopeeeeeeeeeeeeeee ……go knock your self out………. 🙂
IF , the game of OPTION EXPIRY was going on for all those YEARS……WHEN DID YOU EVER MENTION IT……………?????
NO WARNING EVER………….THAT I CAN TELL……….
OMG, Frank is Bob M, toooo funny, what the H you want me to write a book here, ask yourself this Frank what value has any of your posts provided all these years, any words of wisdom to help anyone make money $$$$$ any chart indications to help investors stay on the money making side of a trade, get lost! your on ignore
CYA………. 🙂
I see you are babbling about the LONG Position , I asked you about LAST WEEK, AND HAD NO STORY……now, today you are claim it is your story…………..HA
Which Mark?
He means ALL-CAPS MARK who has gone missing in action the last week or two.
Ohhhhhhh…the one with the computer model that gives him signals on gold?
Yeah, he was pretty interesting and accurate enough that I like to listen to what he says.
ME TOO , THAT IS WHY I MENTIONED …………MARK…….
Doc your going to want to see this, this is the first time since the 2009 lows its a MAJOR WARNING if a weekly close takes place…………………………….EXIT
As they say the Dow is a supply indicator the Transports a demand indicator, hmm I wonder if Yellen will raise in June, Dow Theory boys will be all over this!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TRAN&p=W&yr=6&mn=9&dy=0&id=p89947606673&listNum=1&a=409725459
To me, that is huge; if ultimately the DJIA breaks its’ long term trend line like the transports appear to want to, then I believe the odds are we start to enter the next leg down in the bear market
Well Richard that’s only a 1000pips away, weekly closes now are going to be very key
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p93860393036&a=409708180&listNum=1
Mat even though you can’t stand me any thoughts from a fellow chartist after viewing the $Trans could be a huge bear trap or the first real crack since 2009 my indicators suggested selling the last week of Dec at the 9100 level and are still suggesting a short position
I don’t think it’s a bear trap.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TRAN&p=W&yr=7&mn=3&dy=0&id=p59619185097&a=409752559
A little Schiff fork support comes in at just above 7800 this week.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TRAN&p=W&yr=11&mn=3&dy=0&id=p46306943401&a=409753216
Note that the November high precisely hit the resistance line drawn off of the 2006-’07 peaks.
Using the modified Schiff fork, the picture is a bit different.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TRAN&p=W&yr=9&mn=3&dy=0&id=p43415818579&a=409753938
the 233 avg, I backed your chart off and its a line of defence that has meaning for sure and its fallen
thanks!
S&P 500 key support line since 2011 lows comes in at 1970, its been a buyers dream at every hit of this trend line, time will tell
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p82582132664&listNum=1&a=409726948
JJ, I enyoy your posts and think you r providing a ton of good analysis. That said I don’t agree with all your interpretations as I think you relate somethings too directly when their relationship is either inconsistent or changing over time or not related. Like your yen gold linkage above. I just don’t get it that one. Overall though I really appreciate your posts. Also, I think most people’s view on gold on this forum is pretty realistic. Most are open to anything happening but see a bright future. I have a different view on silver and I see it slowly working into way higher with the potential for a few burst higher. I am call for 20 plus by end of year.
Not into I meant “it’s way higher”
Thanks Peter, hey we all can have many different views, I’m not a gold bull or bear I just trade it so $5 silver or $200 that’s great I know I’ll be making money on any decent swings
Good luck!
jj
If your interested I’ve got some stuff you may like and laugh at.
We are of alike minds. if you have an email you want to share…,
Thanks Bill, I’ll pass I’m a chart guy only
Me too jj. But just was some very accurate reporting of what you have been saying.
Good stuff, Doc
Thanks
Using the highs and lows on the dollar chart beginning in March we can trace out a parallel declining channel that is being formed and suggests the current dollar rally will peak at 99 and change before heading back down. That is currently my best estimate of where dollar strength will terminate and thus establish that the dollar is in fact in a decline phase.
This is the upper resistance you talk of Bird, anyone who doesn’t have stockcharts won’t see what I’ve placed on the chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p64740680843&listNum=1&a=409776590
You got it exactly. That is my theory for the moment. If you trace out a parallel support line using the spike down on March 18th you can see that the upper and lower lines are in almost perfect sync. So if the dollar breaks above that upper zone it does become a problem for me.
Tuesday’s action had a lot to do with Yellen
http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-signaled-rate-hike-coming-in-2015-2015-5
peter r hope you have stockcharts, using just this one indicator ( I use 6) but its just an example for those that want to buy silver on a regular basis or trade it, the chart shows you how not to get caught up on calls of $20+ late Jan or late March and again recently mid May as silver and the indicator stall in its tracks and when the next pop comes for the buyers
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p10243249928&a=409189590&listNum=1
What are you using for your oil short, I’m using DWTI
The red flag warning this month has been the $Trans
Have a look at the weekly yen chart Doc
This is not Gold positive no matter how anyone tries to spin it, when yen broke down off support last Aug gold fell from $1300+ to $1130 while yen looked for a bottom, that support is giving way again, danger!!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=W&yr=1&mn=3&dy=15&id=p05840249509&listNum=1&a=409674070