Wednesday and The Doctor is In
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Doc comments on what, if anything, will result from Greece defaulting; the gold markets; the bond markets; and, the conventional markets.
If you don’t have cancer, you will 🙂
Martin Armstrong said gold was tuff to buy in europe, at least gold coins retail, weighing jewellery at boarders.
Bob Moriarity said right away Armstrong had “made it up”.
So silverdoc and zerohedge realised yesterday Armstrong wasn’t right about his no gold in Europe thinking.
Now they are saying there is no shortage and there is gold everywhere in a very liquid market etc etc.
So funny, I thought these sites were promoting buy all you can (especially from us) before you cant get any more.
Just seems to me these guys are sorta shooting themselves in the feet.
Doubt it matters, very few will notice anything, its just funny.
bb…I find it difficult to believe anything anymore about the metals unless it comes from this site and the knowledgeable people who contribute…
True enough Gator. This is a great forum for cutting through the bs and getting to the facts. Nobody else seems to do it so well.
True Gator, remember tho, that shortages and extreme buying was touted on here to the point of people saying line ups to buy were really line ups at “we buy gold” outlets.
There is still nothing wiser than ones own DD.
As best can be done anyway.
ditto gator…………….
Just more evidence that Martin Armstrong, while very intelligent, makes silly statements regularly just like any commentator. There are precious metals available in Europe (including Spain) and that is what Silverdoc and Zerohedge realized. There are also bullion brokers that ship internationally and anyone can get on Ebay and buy bullion and coins globally.
ahhh.. Id rather go with Moriarty any day…
Doc might be right predicting lower gold prices for the next 6 weeks, but I think it could be a good idea to hold onto some gold stocks especially if Greece defaults in the next two weeks. I will be surprised if Greece defaults and gold goes down. If that is the case why hold gold?
Gold could go up in Euro terms, but down in dollar terms if the greenback soars.
That’s just it confused, we might be getting to a point gold could again mean more to people than wedding rings, but we could also be getting closer to gold being completely meaningless beyond that, other than a very limited industrial use.
Eventually, we will master space travel, gold wasn’t used on the Enterprise.
Gold is however used in many of the space missions though bb.
Geek Answers: Why does NASA use so much gold foil?
http://www.geek.com/science/geek-answers-why-does-nasa-use-so-much-gold-foil-1568610/
Here’s a snippet from the article above:
“….In space direct impact from radiation transfers heat, like a dish warmed in a microwave. As a result, keeping instrumentation cold is less about insulation than about reflection, and gold has some very desirable qualities in this regard.
Four metal compared for their ability to block different wavelengths of light.
Four metal compared for their ability to reflect different wavelengths of light.
……gold reflects infrared radiation (above roughly .7 µm) as well as any of our candidate metals, which is a major part of keeping tech-heating rays out of our hair. However, it also reflects as much or more UV radiation (roughly .35 µm) than its competitors while absorbing quite a bit of visible light. This means that it won’t create blinding reflective hotspots for astronauts, and its heavy atomic weight lets it soak up quite a bit of that visible light before heating to any harmful extent.
Gold also does not rust or tarnish in air the way copper or silver do, meaning it requires less care and maintenance to keep mission-ready, and it remains softer and more malleable than aluminum when stretched. Anyone who has ever tried to unroll and re-use a piece of aluminum foil in the kitchen knows how unwilling it is to forgive even the slightest crease. All metal foils have this property to an extent, but gold foil does present a slightly easier workflow than its cheaper competitors.
A gold-coated collector collector, pre-launch.
Gold is used by NASA in all kinds of contexts. It’s used in external reflectors like those seen in these photos, but it’s also found in astronauts’ visors, filtering out IR radiation to protect astronauts’ eyes. When coupled with an ultra-violet filter like polycarbonate, this makes a shield for both infra-red and ultra-violet radiation while letting a good amount of visible light through to the astronaut.
Gold is also used in many collectors. Its state is assayed before and after a mission to determine what sorts of particles hit it while exposed to space. Even micro-electronics are often made from gold, since the element is an excellent conductor while resisting corrosion and the buildup of static electricity. Even mirrors incorporate gold at the atomic level, with laser-deposited layers or gold providing that extra bit of infrared reflectance needed to create ultra-high resolution images.
So don’t think NASA’s use of gold is wasteful. Whether it’s a gold-coated sheet of mylar or an atomically thin spray of gold on a space mirror, the element has a combination of properties like no other. Until materials science can outstrip gold’s remarkable confluence of reflectance, durability, conductivity, and physical workability, it will continue to have a shining, opulent place in human excursions into space.”
Everyone seems pretty negative on metals lately but to me both silver and gold look short term positive. Also the Canadian dollar is on the rise and USD is falling along with bonds reinforcing that view. How long it holds is another matter but I like silver right here….agree Doc the 30 year will continue its declines for awhile yet. The dollar is still following in its downward trend and I continue to marvel at those who keep saying its about to break out anytime soon. Good thing we all see the markets differently.
Yup, that’s what makes markets Bird.
I am of the opinion the US $ at least remains stronger relative to other currencies for awhile yet, conspiracy theory I guess but I think the “plan” is to keep the americans somewhat pacified with cheaper goods. the mess created by big inflation could be more than the “managers” could handle for awhile.
I have to say, these interviews have to been made AFTER the FOMC meetings..
As expected, silver has turned up versus gold. But is it just a bounce?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p53107587739
GDXJ is looking promising but would like to see more volume.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p30362871412
GDXJ is worth 19% more GDX than it was in March. I would expect the seniors to do some catching up.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AGDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p96585249266
Looks to me like the gold / silver ratio is on its way back to 68 or thereabouts before its next bounce. I agree its rolling over meaning silver is a good buy relative to gold on an ounce basis. We don’t know yet if this is THE turn some are waiting for but a quick look at the 20 year G/S chart should be telling us that silver is a fantastic buy relative to gold in the coming years. We could trace all the way back to a ratio of 25 in the next decade at a minimum from the recent highs of 76……which is a pretty nice long term play if you imagine gold merely doubling.
Because that would mean silver would be priced at….wait a sec, let me get my trusty napkin calculator…. a 600% return sound about right?
Whatever…I am the shits with math most days. Puts us at almost 100 dollar per silver ounce if gold reaches 2500 though. 2500/25 = 100
100/15 = 6.666 (or a 666% rise)
No wonder JPM is stocking up on millions of ounces! It’s a slam dunk for chart followers.
Like buying an East Vancouver home for a million dollars today only to see it explode in value to almost 7 million before the next ten years has finished…….OK I convinced myself. Time to buy physical again!
In Canadian dollars silver has remained aprox 20$ from midpoint 2013, I don’t see any change yet.
Traders see it differently from physical “stackers”.
Check the G/S ratio bb. I cannot seem to connect to the charts right now or I would link what I am talking about. Lousy African connection. Maybe Matthew can get something on the screen with a projection. Silver (in short) is a fantastic bet if you have the patience to wait.
Now I mention it….this might just be the time to start stacking again. Especially at these prices. Gold may well be the monetary metal but as far as I can see all the real money is going to be made in silver without any of the downside risks of confiscation. What those charts are really telling us though is that a demand squeeze is coming AKA, a shortage and it probably has to do with the solar and electronics usage combined with declines in new finds and/or closures of ore pits due to poor profitability of base metals as the Asian growth miracle continues to subside.
Nobody noticed that the Fed meeting is the day after derivatives options expiry and the day before quarterly options expiry? Another ‘we’re going to wait and see’ speach.
Just for fun, go back and look at the chart of US House Prices to Silver ratio. It’s hard to believe but at the peak of silvers prices in 1980, a mere 2500 ounces of silver could buy the typical home.
Today it is closer to 20,000 ounces!
But that chart suggests a reversal is coming and we could again see US homes priced in the low thousands of ounces. One tipoff is United Kingdom home prices to silver which appears to want to make a massive H&S pattern before mean reverting.
Here are the charts: Ratio of Gold and Silver Prices to House Prices
http://www.gold-price-live.com/index.php/gold_price/gold-price-vs-house-prices.html
Those are interesting charts on how many ounces of gold or silver it would take to buy a US or UK house. Thanks for posting them Birdman.
I remain bullish on Silver (even more so than Gold) on the mid to longer term, but in the short term am very cautious due to seasonal weakness and everything in all markets building towards some kind of breakout to the upside or downside.
I am watching the technicals on Silver spot, but more importantly for me are the miners. Personally I really like the makeup of the Silver Miner ETF (SILJ) and am using that as my proxy for the Silver Miners.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p63201394864
Testing…testing
Amazing….. not a single silver bull is left alive on this site. Nobody even disagreed either. We have to be getting close to the bottom if I can’t even raise an eyebrow on the subject of silver…..I was talking long term btw…..not next week. Its a decade projection for gosh sakes.
I said last week that silver was going to start to outperform gold again very soon. I’ve also said many times that silver probably bottomed last year and have put up the following chart to show that silver has been in a stealthy uptrend versus gold since last November.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=11&dy=0&id=p29294411649&a=407706196
Certain crises could send the GSR toward 100, but silver is a long term bargain at the current GSR of 73.
That’s a good silver chart showing the golden crosses averted twice and then the channeling action lately bouncing off the trend lines. Thanks for your insights Matthew.
OK, thanks Matthew. I already knew you were generally bullish in your outlook but was a little surprised that speculation on future price where there is a fair probability of being correct would elicit no response from anyone else.
Even a bear like me sees an eventual upside in metals! Just a matter of time. What did you make of my back of the napkin silver price formula, by the way? Too optimistic or maybe a fair estimate?
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Shad, there are some charts, especially the long run historical ones that really make a guy say hmmm when he tries to project what those charts mean into the future. Whenever you lose hope on metals trends it often pays to revisit data that gets your focus back and reminds us all that metals really are cyclical boom and bust. The housing versus gold ratio is one that informs us that we will get another leg down in real estate soon enough. I think its quite clear in the message that US homes have not yet completed their declines and mean-reverted to long run inflation adjusted growth numbers. What that means is metals will be on the rise soon enough. An broad asset correction is widely anticipated and could encompass much of the globe. Housing is still overpriced almost everywhere.
I think your back of the napkin estimate is reasonable and quite possibly low.
If for some very strange reason I could only own one asset at this time and for the next 5 years, I would choose physical silver held outside the banking system. Gold is safer/less volatile while the miners will provide awesome gains but come with many risks. So silver is the best compromise, bar none, if one wants to err on the side of caution when trying to leverage gold’s moves.
If the Dow/gold ratio goes to 1:1 or so, as I still believe it will, just imagine how silver will do since it is likely to outperform gold by 3 or 4 to one by the time the bull market is done.
Even if the dollar holds up better than I expect, the metals are going to do extremely well in real terms.
We can only imagine what silver would look like if gold really did rise to 5k while the G/S ratio returned to its 1980 lows. Wowzer! But I suspect its far too early to talk that way openly without sounding crazy. Very few are ready to even consider that potential after having been crucified by price declines these past few years.
I have this nagging fear that good ol’ John Embry and some others (moi?) ain’t going to make it to 2,000 gold/usd.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qyxuHdvM5o