Rick elaborates on the markets.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Rick stresses that his technical input as it relates to the financial markets has nothing to do with emotion but only the numbers. We, obviously, discussed today’s action in GDXJ with Rick.
It still remains to be seen if we’ll test those November 2014 lows around $1131. It is still possible over the next month or so as we whipsaw up and down in the descending wedge. If we break out of this range, the move could be dramatic to the upside or downside, but right now we’re just in the slow grind down of the summer doldrums.
* I’m going to repost this one more time, as I didn’t get it on the board until late last night.
For anyone that may be interested, this video presentation from 2 weeks ago is still on target, and Jordan addresses his perspective on why he feels sub $1000 gold is not very likely, unless it is just a momentary dip below it. He sees the strongest support in the $1050-$1000 zone. It’s a pretty good short presentation he ends the presentation with a falling wedge discussion as well. I tend to agree with this outlook the most, as I’ve been targeting $1044.70 as support zone.
This is also very similar to Doc Postma’s outlook, and Gary’s outlook, so there is definitely some synergy in some of the analysis lately.
Precious Metals Market Update: A Technical Update on Gold – Jordan Roy-Byrne
BY COLLIN KETTELL ON JUNE 17, 2015
http://palisaderadio.com/precious-metals-market-update-a-technical-update-on-gold-jordan-roy-byrne/
Yellow closed below $1170 today. Down we go WEEEEEEEE!!!. My JDST blasted off the runway today! Up, up, and away!
Jason, you sir are a JDST ninja.
Hopefully you did a Ninja vanish before the pop in metals today my friend.
should have said pop in metals miners (aka: GDXJ, and GDX)
Greek debt negotiations deteriorate. Most traditional safe haven assets are acting as expected, with money flowing into the Japanese yen, US dollar, US Treasury bonds, and the Swiss franc (though the SNB’s decision to intervene in its currency may redirect some of that capital toward the British pound), but there has been one notable laggard: gold.
The yellow metal has been used in human commerce for at least 2,500 years, giving it historical cachet as a store of value, and even J.P. Morgan himself once stated that “Gold and silver are money. Everything else is credit.” At least based on the reaction to this week’s news about Greece, modern traders beg to differ with the great banker.
Gold has held steady within 25 points of the $1200 level for over three months now, and while it did gap slightly higher yesterday after the collapse of the Greek debt negotiations, those gains were short-lived. As of writing, the yellow metal is on track for its lowest close since March, dramatically lagging its safe-haven rivals. We often note that one of the strongest signals in trading is when an instrument fails to act “as expected” to a major fundamental development, and this week’s lackluster reaction suggests that gold may be losing its luster and on the verge of a big breakdown.
For now, the pair remains barely within its 3-month range, but a close below 1170 or so could open the floodgates for bearish traders to target the year-to-date low at 1145. Given the extended consolidation, conservative traders may want to wait for a breakdown in the RSI indicator below its corresponding support level at 40. Meanwhile, a rally off the 1175 floor later this week could portend more frustrating consolidation around the 1200 level as we move through July
People seem like to describe the price moves and accept it at face value and rarely ask why. Why does gold not react to even the most bullish factor? It is beyond reasoning. If all the other safe havens react, why doesn’t gold. Is it too obviously artificial? If gold does not react to any fundamentals, it should not rise so much during the last 40 years. Any artificial influance will fade during the course of history. TIme will cure every ill.
When the sovereign default possibility showed up last time in 2011 because of greece and debt limit, gold reacted violently.
Still waiting for holy grail aka sub $1000 gold.
A summer rally might not be far off either. Bears are overplaying their hand
GDXJ:GDX was due for a break:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AGDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p28420175784&a=414643240
Matthew – Do you have a way of drawing a trend line from the $29.56 (high in Nov 2014) down through the $25.24 (high in late March 2015) and see where it intersecting the price levels on the far right of the chart? (my annotation won’t save)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p82589348367
It seems to me when I did it in the sample annotation that it came out near on of the prior troughs at $22.18 – to most recent trough at $22.43. Is that the area you’d get for support as well?
The reason I ask as it correlates well with Rick’s target of $22.26. It seems like there should be some support in this $22.18-$22.26-$22.43 where that trend line would intersect. What do you think?
If that level falls I could see the prior low trough at $20.68 being next support, and then we have Rick’s second target down of $19.75.
Your thoughts?
Here’s a log scale look:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p96195977771&a=414662581
Rick’s 22.26 makes a lot more sense to me than 19.75 and I think we’ll get a low very soon.
Here’s a non-log chart using closing prices for the support/resistance lines:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p89272847440&a=414662753
Still non-log, here’s GDXJ priced in GLD:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p26140464950&a=414663485
And the log scale GDXJ:GLD is about the same:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p61998901830&a=414663512
Yes, thank you. I see the overall larger trend line in solid blue, but the smaller dotted blue line was the one I was referencing. It looks like it will intersect around the $22.26 target Rick was discussing and close to the $22.18 and $22.43 prior troughs.
GDXJ with Schiff fork:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20469598276&a=406455057
Love the schiff forks!
Although, I could see where it would break below to $21 based on that chart.
Fibonacci fan support comes in right around the 22.70 area which happens to be the price needed to fill the 4/1 gap.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p70784872444&a=407874750
Wow. Thanks Matthew. I spent some time really looking at each chart. So there should be good support in the $22.18-$22.70 zone with a few different factors coming into play. Ricks call for $22.26 is in that range, the prior trough of $22.18 and $22.43 is in that range, and the Fib retracement of $22.70 will be followed by a fair number of traders as a stop/buy limit.
Incredibly good charting man. I always love the Schiff forks to make the trend lines and trading channels pop out in an easier to visualize way.
Mad props!
It will be interesting to see if that gap at $22.70 gets filled on Thursday as it looks like PMs are under pressure again in pre-market trading.
Well, very interesting action so far today in the markets. Even thought Gold is down about $6, GDXJ has rallied by 1.2 %, with the Jrs showing some strength.
This will be an interesting day to watch as people position themselves before the long holiday weekend.
I think we’re about to see some serious gold and silver futures short covering.
Yes, I think that some short-covering is helping to fuel a small pop, where the miners seem to be leading the metals higher for the short-term. I’m still expecting the up/down madness to continue as we move gradually down through the range in the “falling wedge” that Jordan Roy-Byrne, Gary Wagner, and Doc Postma have reviewed in recent weeks. I’m about to go shopping to build some postions in some of the miners once we get this up then down move in July.
According to Bird $1130 looked to be in the cards.
Less than $38 of that now.
All demand is still being met with available supply.
Not sure if we get increases in price until that changes.
There might be enough mines that can operate profitably under $1000 to meet that demand.