Tuesday, and yes, The Doctor Is In!
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Doc thinks that the debt crisis could reach astronomical proportions by 2016. Do you think that it will take that long?
Ain’t that the truth!
yes sir.
Doc, we all want to know how you did in the cherry pit spitting contest in Michigan on the 4th. What is your personal best?
funny.
good gravy… they’ve kept it going for years…and it has been a slow process…so perhaps the exit door is being envisioned as we speak….like getting yr cash out before others do….
Good point, Agatha, at least in my mind!
Bring the gdp back the same way Iceland did.
If you look at the gold and silver price charts, it appears to me the attacks on silver and gold occurred after the London p.m. Fix and before the close. Looked like London only action to me.
I don’t know if I fully agree with all Doc said.
I agree with the signs of topping in ALL stock markets.
In the European debt markets, it appears that Germany is being looked upon as safe, but France, Italy and Spain interest rates are beginning to move up quite fast.
I expect the bond vigilantes to start moving long term US rates up.
It looks to me that some of the bubbles..”..property, general stocks, art, gems are all beginning to price deflate and that we could serious asset deflation which feeds upon itself for months if not years, and it is not clear to me that PMs can buck that trend.
Other than the necessities of life, food and water, I really wonder if anything will be useful to preserve wealth in bucking a worldwide deflationary trend.
It also worries me that the powers behind the world economy might well use an economic calamity to establish regional governments, regional currencies.
These times are getting too interesting!
Go long USD and Treasuries CFS. Everything else might go to crap but the collective wisdom of the market will continue to seek value and as they do the majority will still choose what is most liquid, accessible, free-floating, deep and dependable.
They will shun risk and embrace what is already proven to work.
No matter how much you may hate to hear those words.
But in a global economy that is in decline and takes no prisoners even as it becomes risk averse, some assets and securities will always catch the bid. Given there are not better alternatives in the dirty shirt laundry we can easily estimate where capital will flow.
And that should help us know what will rise and what will fall.
I believe Germany understands you cannot solve a debt problem by piling up more debt, but I am sure other governments do not understand (or don’t care).
I worry to what lengths the U.S. Government is prepared to go.
Will it nationalize all 401Ks or just seize all pensions?
One has to believe it is prepared for large scale killing of its citizens to maintain control.
(Because of its purchase of hollow point rounds)
What is it prepared to do that might provoke the citizenry? That is the real question that bugs me.
I have not analysed the market data fully yet today, but it would not surprise me if I found evidence of plunge protection team buying of sector ETFs to prop up the market.
Yes, it will take that long. Maybe longer. This crap has been going on for decades. Its just now starting to break the seal. It will probably snowball into a worldwide unrest and war. Question is, how do you come out ahead? It may not be possible.
“How do you come out ahead?”
– By listening to the wise contributors on the Korelin Economics Report of course 🙂
You know what concerns me most Doc?
It is that Greece has almost used up its fifteen minutes of fame.
Every major story and every major event of our times has a life cycle. None of them hold the attention of the public in perpetuity. That is now the case with Greece. It has become stale-dated and it won’t be long before the story disappears from view altogether.
A year from now and most here will wonder why we gave it so much of our precious time. But it is a media circus as usual and it will fade to black just a quickly as it caught our attention in the first place.
Right now we need to sober up and start concentrating on what is really moving markets. Chris Temple points out it is China that is the elephant in the room. Rick asserts it is the global deflationary juggernaut that is at our throats.
Both of them are dead right.
And Greece is just a sideshow. Lets move on to what matters and keep in mind that little country called Greece is just a couple percent of the European market. It is a flea on a caws butts and it is wasting all our time and energy.
Lately I feel we are just spectators at the games and the resources of the analyst community here are being spent analyzing a problem with no solution. We enthusiastically root for one side or the next. Some support Germany and the Troika while others support Tsipras and his merry band of Socialist (communist?) sympathizers.
End of the day nobody will care. And that is a fact.
Because this Greek tragedy is almost at the end of its media shelf life by virtually all metrics. Its not the Vietnam war for Gosh sakes. It is not Iraq, Afghanistan or libya either.
Its just a bunch of spoiled Southern Europeans hogging the media spotlight and keeping is distracted from what really matters. They are so incredibly selfish and self centered that words do not properly describe their failures.
I say “Dump Greece and its petty problems and let those damn fools work it out themselves or go down trying”. They should have defaulted right from the beginning and show real balls rather than drag the worlds sympathies into their pathetic daily problems.
For me, I care not what happens to them anymore. If they cannot make a decision in their own best interests then let them fail and crash flat on their faces. So lets get on with what really matters for a change (Hint: It is not about Greece and its puny .001% of the global economy!)
Listerner, good comments. It’s going to take more then Greece to move these precious metals markets. My gut tells me it’s going to someday revolve around the dollar.
Thanks Doc. I did not mean to sound lecturing. Sorry about that. My remarks are really general and mostly directed at the media who are body-hugging this story like its the last damn thing on earth. Meanwhile, there are some real monsters growing legs in the background and I worry that whatever it is that finally pushes Greece off the front pages will send a jitters through the investment world. All Greece is teaching us that there is zero flexibility in much of the worlds leadership. We should fear that more than a default itself because if this is how they are going to ham-handedly respond to the next (real) crisis then we are all in deep trouble. I mean wow…some of those European bureaucrats are behaving like retards who went of their meds.
Well Doc the US dollar is based on debt and there is no political will to pay down debt by governments in Europe or North America. Therefore such debt based currencies are as good as the debts. In the end all debt based currencies and the debts backing them up will be paid by the debtor or by the creditor and unless the payment is gold, silver or some tangible asset there will be no real payment made. Government debt might very well be seen for what it is. A tax on banks and those foolish enough to underwrite or invest in government debt.
As long as prices rise on the stock market all kinds of dubious financial practices go on such as inflated margin accounts. Investment trusts can be set up for the purpose of absorbing securities which the hedge fund managers might have difficulty selling in the open market. Take dividends paid out to stock holders if the price of stocks keep going higher the dividend can be paid with the increased profit. But just think about this and what you don’t know or can’t see and all of a sudden the stock market starts a big correction, now you can feel the vortex that sucks the unwary into a perfect liquidation the likes of which you can witness at Niagara Falls. China is trying to stop a 1929 correction which could engulf the world. DT
The debt is huge but so are all the other shenanigans realized and not realized.
Do I think it will take that long? No. But here is something I’ve learned the hard way: “Markets can stay irrational longer than you [I] can stay solvent.”