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Now is not a time to go long in the markets

July 9, 2015

Doc continues to see weakness in the overall markets.

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Discussion
70 Comments
    Jul 09, 2015 09:25 PM

    STREET TALK……………I went to my coin dealer today………he said he was having problems keeping silver and gold in the shop………the market was HOT TODAY.

    Jul 09, 2015 09:07 PM

    Avino Announces Concentrates Prepayment Agreement with Samsung C&T
    July 09, 2015

    Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (ASM: TSX.V, ASM: NYSE – MKT; “Avino” or “the Company”) is pleased to announce that it has entered into a concentrates prepayment agreement with Samsung C&T U.K. Ltd. (“Samsung”).

    Pursuant to the prepayment agreement, Avino will sell Avino Mine concentrates on an exclusive basis to Samsung for a period of 24 months. Samsung agreed to make available to Avino USD$10 million for prepayment of such concentrates.”

    http://www.avino.com/s/news.asp?ReportID=715412

      Jul 10, 2015 10:21 AM

      Great Avino news! I will buy Avino shares when they fall below 1 usd. Im not that good in technicals but i think Avino has good value right now. How far down do you think they will fall this summer?

        Jul 10, 2015 10:40 AM

        Blue, interesting stock and thanks for alerting me to it. It appears on the technicals it has a chance to challenge the low of $.75 touched in July of 2013. However, I believe it may not reach that until later in the fall of this year.

          Jul 10, 2015 10:51 AM

          Thanks Doc, I appreciate you had the time to answer. I think Avino has strong future ahead. The share has been my favourite mining stock since Sprott got involved in the stock a couple of years ago. Since then Avino has expanded and been stronger even it has been a mining bear market. They have even invested in a gold mine called Bralorne Gold mine in the middle of this bear market.
          http://www.avino.com/s/bralorne.asp

          If you click on this link down below you will enter the European Gold Forum and you will find Avino and click on it. Its a 15 min presentation of Avino where it stands today and where it goes in the future
          http://www.europeangoldforum.org/egf15/egf15-webcast/egf15-webcast-stream.html

          Jul 10, 2015 10:10 AM

          Yes Avino is an older mine that has been given a new lease on life, and I believe this company is turning into a great turn-around story. They used to have the Bralorne asset, then spun it off, and now have acquired it back. I think it is also interesting what they are going to do processing all those tailings at their Avino mine.

          Here is their First Quarter results Doc as I think you were on vacation when we had a nice discussion about Avino.

          Avino Reports Q1 2015 Financial Results: Earnings of $376,287 ($0.01 Per Share) and Cash Flow from Operations of $1.1 million ($0.03 Per Share)

          http://www.avino.com/s/news.asp?ReportID=707424

    Jul 09, 2015 09:08 PM

    July 9, 2015
    Endeavour Silver Produces 1,769,741 oz Silver and 13,047 oz Gold (2.7 Million oz Silver Equivalent) in the Second Quarter, 2015

    http://news.edrsilver.com/press-releases/endeavour-silver-produces-1769741-oz-silver-and-13047-oz-gold-2-7-million-oz-nyse-exk-11g047090-001

    Jul 09, 2015 09:08 PM
    Jul 09, 2015 09:08 PM

    Great Panther Silver updates mineral resources at Topia mine

    VANCOUVER, July 9, 2015 /CNW/ – GREAT PANTHER SILVER LIMITED (TSX: GPR)(NYSE MKT: GPL) (“Great Panther”, the “Company”) provides an update to the Mineral Resource Estimate (“MRE”) at the Company’s 100% owned Topia Silver-Gold-Lead-Zinc Mine operation in Durango, Mexico.

    http://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1118-tsx/gpr/9268-great-panther-silver-updates-mineral-resources-at-topia-mine.html

    Jul 09, 2015 09:09 PM

    First Majestic Produces 3.8 Million Silver Eqv. Ounces in Q2’15

    VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – July 9, 2015) – First Majestic Silver Corp. (“First Majestic” or the “Company”) (TSX:FR)(NYSE:AG)(FRANKFURT:FMV)(BVM:AG) is pleased to announce that total production at its five operating silver mines in Mexico for the second quarter ending June 30, 2015 reached 3,802,558 equivalent ounces of silver, relatively unchanged compared to the same quarter in 2014.

    http://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1082-tsx/fr/9242-first-majestic-produces-3-8-million-silver-eqv-ounces-in-q2-15.html

    Jul 09, 2015 09:09 PM
    Jul 09, 2015 09:10 PM

    Lake Shore Gold Produces 95,600 Ounces in First Half of 2015, Company Announces Improved Full-Year Operating Outlook
    July 08, 2015

    http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/lake-shore-gold-produces-95600-ounces-first-half-2015-company-announces-improved-full-tsx-lsg-2036478.htm

    Jul 09, 2015 09:10 PM
    Jul 09, 2015 09:10 PM
    Jul 09, 2015 09:11 PM

    Teck Announces Carmen de Andacollo Gold Stream

    VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – July 9, 2015) – Teck Resources Limited (TSX: TCK.A and TCK.B, NYSE: TCK) announced today that Compañia Minera Teck Carmen de Andacollo (“CDA”) has entered into a long-term gold offtake agreement with RGLD Gold AG (“RGLDAG”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD; TSX: RGL). Teck has increased its cash position by US$162 million as a result of CDA entering into the offtake agreement and terminating a separate royalty agreement with Royal Gold Chile Limitada.

    http://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/417-tsx/tck-a/9292-teck-announces-carmen-de-andacollo-gold-stream.html

    Jul 09, 2015 09:11 PM

    Corvus Gold Intersects New Vein System in Sierra Blanca North Target, North Bullfrog Project, Nevada VANCOUVER, July 9, 2015

    http://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1084-tsx/kor/9251-corvus-gold-intersects-new-vein-system-in-sierra-blanca-north-target-north-bullfrog-project-nevada.html

    Jul 09, 2015 09:11 PM
    Jul 09, 2015 09:47 PM

    Shad, reading some of your posts leads me to believe you are invested heavily in the resource sector but your money is exposed to these markets, that could leave you very vulnerable. DT

      Jul 09, 2015 09:59 PM

      I appreciate the concern DT, but I am just sharing companies that I think will do well once the metals markets recover. The only company above I currently have a position in is Rye Patch, but I’m watching the other ones and thought people may like to evaluate some of these earnings reports, mergers, or key news briefs.

      Cheers.

        Jul 09, 2015 09:06 PM

        Gold bugs are an elusive breed of creature these days. Like the Sasquatch. We keep hearing rumours of them being out there waiting in the sticks but hardly anyone sees one anymore and they sure are quiet at dinner parties anymore!

          Jul 09, 2015 09:16 PM

          Funny…..the elusive Sasquatch…..

    Jul 09, 2015 09:44 PM

    Maybe he has marketing contracts.

      Jul 09, 2015 09:00 PM

      Funny. Nope, I’m just an individual investor heathen.

      Jul 09, 2015 09:02 PM

      Can’t recall who it was anymore but I always got a good chuckle from that guy who would claim “My portfolio is diversified, I bought silver AND gold miners”. 🙂

        Jul 09, 2015 09:15 PM

        Agreed. It can be very risky to put all your eggs in one basket, and it is important to be diversified across different sectors and asset classes.

        Personally, I have a retirement account full of mutual funds and a small bond allocations, but in my trading account, I have focused on commodities and energy. I follow and trade agricultural companies & EFTs (did well with JJA today for example), fertilizer companies, gold, silver, platinum & palladium, base metals, specialty metals, uranium, lithium, oil, some nat gas, solar, wind, green energy, and energy conservation companies. In addition, I also still trade ETFs for a sector like XLV for Health care, or IBB for Biotech, or SPXS or SPXL to play the leveraged S&P, or TZA to short the Russell 2000, or TLT/TBT to go long/short bonds, etc…..

        Just silver and gold miners is not really “diversified”, and is very high risk.

          Jul 09, 2015 09:22 PM

          Since there is a big interest in precious metals and the related miners on this site, I just a few people may be interested in some of the press releases above.

          Good luck to all in their investing, whatever their strategies are.

        Jul 10, 2015 10:08 PM

        Maloney.

          Jul 10, 2015 10:34 PM

          Yup. That’s who it was.

    Jul 09, 2015 09:20 PM

    The Canadian dollar still looks like it has a date with .75 or just a few hairs under so there is time yet before commodities show bullishness. Same thing with AUD (the Ozzie) which looks like we can project a low of .70 at a minimum before strength returns. But we could easily be talking early 2016 before either of those numbers are hit.

      Jul 09, 2015 09:33 PM

      Seems reasonable to me bird.

        Jul 09, 2015 09:35 PM

        If I am not mistaken, Bird no longer posts here.

          Jul 09, 2015 09:38 PM

          based on your discussions, the time you post, and your accurate calls on the Canadian dollar I figured you were one in the same.

          Cheers.

            Jul 09, 2015 09:15 PM

            It’s Bird, Shad.

            Jul 09, 2015 09:18 PM

            Btw, I picked up more SPM and a few others today. GDX has a gap to fill from 11/6/14 and hopefully GDXJ will fill today’s gap tomorrow. Either way, the miners are very close to a bottom.

            Jul 09, 2015 09:25 PM

            Also picked up FELP today well below $10. It was recommended by a well known newsletter just weeks ago above $14. Glad I waited. 14% div…

            Jul 09, 2015 09:33 PM

            Yes I’ve been watching Americas Mining, but have not taken a position back. I sold most of my position in early May, and the remaining part in late June. It’s one of the first ones I’m picking up once I see how the next few weeks play out.

            I did pick up one mining share this week and that was (MUX) McEwen Mining. I’ve swing traded it in the past, but have watched it falling for the last year and wrote Silverdollar back yesterday but on Rick A’s Tuesday blog real time that I was going back in:

            On July 8, 2015 at 12:50 pm,
            Shad says:

            “Maybe I’m a sucker, but I just took out a position in McEwen Mining Silverdollar.

            MUX – 03:42:26
            Bought position @ $0.8056

            It looks oversold enough for me to average into it, but if it pops back tomorrow I’m selling it right back for a profit.”

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MUX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p92138733498
            ______________________________

            BTW – I jumped up to $.86 but I was stuck in business meetings and had a limit order set for $.88. Now it’s back down to $.83.

            Matthew – what are your thoughts on MUX?

            Jul 09, 2015 09:42 PM

            So FELP huh…..I gotta admit that I don’t follow the coal space to closely. You’re typically a great stock picker though, so I’m sure you getting a great value as it was $20, and yes I see the fall from $14, so you’re getting much better value and access to that dividend at $10. Thanks for the heads up man. Great work!

            Jul 10, 2015 10:15 AM

            I don’t follow MUX closely but I think you will do very well with it based on what you paid.

            Jul 10, 2015 10:30 AM

            Thanks Matthew. Good luck to you sir.

            Jul 10, 2015 10:44 AM

            Thanks Shad and good luck to you, too.

            Jul 10, 2015 10:55 AM

            Well I should have sold the gains yesterday in the $.86-$.84 area (but was swamped with business meetings and it didn’t reach my limit order). Now MUX has dipped down lower, and I’m underwater….Ahhhh! Oh well…..

            Jul 10, 2015 10:03 AM

            You’ll be fine! (I know you agree.)

            Jul 10, 2015 10:18 AM

            Thanks. I know they’re under pressure from the NYSE listing rules since they’re under $1, but Rob McEwen also personally owns 25% of the stock himself (and doesn’t take a salary), so he’ll look for a solution that get’s the share price up (likely without too much dilution).

          Jul 10, 2015 10:48 AM

          A LISTENER EQUAL BIRD??????????????

            Jul 10, 2015 10:27 AM

            is bb the heathen???????????

            Jul 10, 2015 10:15 AM

            Yes & yes.

            Jul 10, 2015 10:17 AM

            I wondered where bb was, the tag team duo are joined at the hip.

            Jul 10, 2015 10:11 AM

            thanks Matthew………… too funny…………

            Jul 10, 2015 10:12 AM

            What a hoot…………. bb the heathen…………..lol

            Jul 10, 2015 10:06 PM

            Yup, frank, bb is now heathen, had to start calling myself heathen after HH did.

            Jul 10, 2015 10:35 PM

            I wondered where that name came from bb, but forgot about that. funny.

            Jul 10, 2015 10:29 PM

            But the Listener is not Birdman. We are not the same person. Thank you anyway for the kind compliment.

            Jul 10, 2015 10:10 PM

            Nice try.

            Jul 10, 2015 10:39 PM

            funny.

    Jul 10, 2015 10:20 AM

    I feel that silver is trying to break free. Someone is holding it down but it is getting tough to refrain it.

      Jul 10, 2015 10:30 AM

      There is a healthy short position in Silver, but if it did break free, the short covering may give it a nice pop. Personally I still think it may have further to fall in the next few weeks, but like that it got out of the mid $14s and into the mid $15s the last few days.

        Jul 10, 2015 10:47 AM

        Not sure what “healthy” means. It is healthy only if shorts possess the metal. Silver is way under the production cost which is driving miners to 0 or even bankruptcy. It is very unhealthy. No industry can sustain long term money losing, especially when the producers can no longer raise money.

          Jul 10, 2015 10:01 AM

          An unusually large short position is “healthy” particularly when the shorts do not possess the metal because they will have to buy to cover.

          I agree with Morris:
          http://www.superforcesignals.com/video/2015july9goldsilver/2015july9goldsilver.html

            Jul 10, 2015 10:10 AM

            I understand US government’s desire to make $US and market the ONLY safe haven but twisting the markets to extreme will destroy the empire. If derivatives fail, regardless how small a chance, it is in unrecoverable and the market will move to the extreme opposite direction. Derivatives were invented by Canadian bank but quickly acquired by US financial industry since they saw a perfect weapon to control financial market. Since it could have 100:1 leverage or more, it potentially magnify the impact hundred times. So you may win every battle and feel you are invincible and take it to extreme. Any small disturbance will cause the collapse. It seems Western financial industry is addicted on this power. However, silver and gold are physical. This is the limitation.

            Jul 10, 2015 10:19 AM

            Great video from Morris Hubbartt. I check out his thoughts every week, and like his analysis, and agree that we may be gearing up for a PM upswing, but from a larger perspective we are just whipsawing back and forth in that wedge.

            It was nice that he went over and plugged 321gold.com as well, and their seasonality charts for Gold/Silver.

            Good stuff and thanks for posting it Matthew.

            Jul 10, 2015 10:56 AM

            US only produce 40 mil ounces silver a year. Most should be sold in LBMA. Even adding other countries production it should be less than 50 mil ounces a year. Now the short position is over 1 billion in COMEX. COMEX has a delivery limit. It could drive price lower but a paper exchange will fail to set price when the physical premium goes up a lot. If they don’t deliver silver, it could set the price to be one cent but it loses pricing power once the delivery is hindered.

    Jul 10, 2015 10:11 AM

    Yeah, bad choice of words on my part… There is a “substantial” short position, but, this could reverse into a near-term short-covering rally. My view is just that if there was a small silver rally, that it would be used to crush any new bullish enthusiasm back down further into late July and possibly early August. I’m mostly watching, but have few smaller positions still on in the Jr miners.

    Good luck to you in your investing Lawrence.

      Jul 10, 2015 10:22 AM

      Thanks for the clarification Shad. Problem for silver is that it is like Chinese stock market, you don’t know when it will jump. I got the experience in 2010-2011. You think that it has peaked and sell some, it just defy you prediction and getting higher, fast. Very naughty. I sold all my silver wheaton in $16-20 and it went to $45. Similar with all my PM stocks. I kept SVM and it peaked at 16 and now it is 1.2.

      (All in Canadian $).

        Jul 10, 2015 10:26 AM

        Yes, Silver is the restless metal, and it is a wild ride. That is what I like about it, because there are great opportunities in Silver’s mood swings, but it is easy to get faked out, stopped out, or freaked out trading the Silver miners 🙂

          Jul 10, 2015 10:46 AM

          Shad, if you look at the last year or so, it is very tame, Extremely stable with only daily spikes.

          Jul 10, 2015 10:47 AM

          I picked up even more SPM at .20 today and more FELP in the 9.50s.

          Jul 10, 2015 10:50 AM

          SVM hits my low ball price yesterday at @ 1.21 Cnd. This is the only PM stock I has bought this year.

            Jul 10, 2015 10:02 AM

            That’s another one that I don’t follow but the risk/reward profile looks very good. You just might have timed it perfectly.

    Jul 10, 2015 10:49 PM

    Rate hikes have already been put back to 2016
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-evans-delays-his-rate-hike-call-to-middle-of-2016-2015-07-09
    ‘“There is value to delaying” given the risks from Europe, China and emerging markets, Evans told a group of reporters at a breakfast meeting.’
    Europe is the excuse and China currently. Always an excuse and that will go on and on….